Tuesday, August 27, 2019
Back down today as the Dow lost 121 points on good volume. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is drifting lower but isn't decisive just yet. A plus day tomorrow would put us back in sideways mode there. But I still think that we're going to be heading down as nothing has changed in the US/China tariff war. The short term technical indicators for the S&P have rolled back over. Volume also picked up to the downside today and that isn't a positive. RUT set a new recent low as well. Lots of time in the September option cycle but with a trip in a week for me I may have to wait things out. GE was off 1/8 on average volume. Gold continues to shine as it gained $15. The US dollar was slightly lower. The XAU added 3 1/3, while GDX rose 7/8. Volume was good. We're at new recent highs for the gold shares and it has been quite a run. We are short term overbought here once again but there seems to no stopping the money flowing into gold. GDX is almost at the resistance target of 31. Maybe try the puts there? That would take some guts as the rise here is for real and there is no telling how high it will go. There was a potential negative divergence on the daily RSI for GDX but it didn't happen and now we're moving higher. I'd still like to wait until at least an oversold reading back to the 50 day moving average before trying the calls again. But that strategy has led me nowhere in this rise. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The TRAN looks like it wants to break the near term support that it has here and that would not bode well for the overall market. Unless we see a turnaround tomorrow things could get worse before they get better. The short term technical indicators for the VIX are at the midpoint. So things can go either way here. The prudent thing for me here is to stay on the sidelines but you won't make any money that way. Won't lose any either. Europe and Asia were generally higher in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.
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