Monday, August 05, 2019
Well today we got a collapse as the US and China have pretty much began a trade war. The Dow lost 767 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were almost 10 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading lower. We are short term oversold but in this case it doesn't matter. Everyone is selling stocks. The uptrend line for the S&P that had been in effect since December has been broken. We had a gap lower to begin the session and went from there. The first logical area of support for the S&P comes in at the 200 day moving average at 2790. At this rate we'll get there tomorrow. I'm looking at the SPY August calls for the snap back but I'm in no hurry. SPY support comes in around 276. Make no mistake the trend is down and we've got a long way to go but it won't all happen at once. If we're lucky we'll get some bounce and look to position in the SPY September puts. The August chance has been missed most likely. GE lost 1/3 and the volume was good. Gold rallied on the stock demise and was up almost $20. The US dollar was lower. The XAU added 3 1/3, while GDX gained 7/8. Volume was heavy. The gold share call trade has been missed as well. I still think that we'll get to the 31 level for GDX. However unless I see an oversold reading on the technical indicators, I'm going to have to try and stay on the sidelines here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX took off today after looking like it was going to head lower at the close on Friday. We are now above 24 on this indicator and the short term technical indicators are extremely overbought. Some of the medium term indicators show some room left to run higher though. If we somehow get to 30 in the next couple of days, I will try the SPY August calls. But it would have to be a very short term trade and definitely not held over the weekend. We are in some very interesting times at the moment. Opportunities will present themselves but you really have to be careful as well. Rallies should be shorted as the positive trend line that was in effect no longer is. The longer term trend is now lower, so you can try and play the snap backs at your own risk. I'm pretty sure that we'll see one this week but knowing exactly when is the question. There is also nothing wrong with staying on the sidelines and sitting things out. You won't make any money but you won't lose any either. Europe and Asia had declines as well last night but not as much as the US. I'd expect them to catch up with more losses tonight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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