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Friday, August 23, 2019

Stocks got clobbered today as the US/China trade war heated up again.  The Dow lost 623 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative.  The summation index is back to moving lower.  The headline risk market environment persists.  The 50 day moving average contained whatever gains we managed in the S&P and now we're heading lower.  Forgotten in todays market action was anything said by the Fed chairman Powell at Jackson Hole.  The technical indicators for the major averages rolled back down and that does not bode well for next week.  The rallies can be shorted scenario remains in place.  The near term support for the S&P is at 2825 but I doubt that will hold.  The 200 day moving average comes in at 2800.  I think we're headed for the next support under that at 2725.  Yesterday or early this morning was the ideal time to purchase the SPY September puts even though the premiums were high.  Not sure if we'll get another chance.  GE fell about 1/4 on very heavy volume.  This stock is being completely driven by the news of an accounting problem there.  However there are also some unknown short sellers that are trying to profit off of the news.  The question is if the news is real or fabricated for the sake of a short sell gain.  Stay tuned on this one.  Gold surged with the drop in equities.  The yellow futures climbed almost $30.  The XAU was up 3 3/4, while GDX gained 1 1/8.  Volume was heavy.  It looks like I missed the opportunity here as well.  We haven't gotten completely oversold here in almost three months.  I should maybe just hop on board because the option market here looks like it is set up for the September strike on the call side.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX held at its 50 day moving average and could not get through the 16 level.  This says more volatility is coming.  Along with more downside as well.  You can make a case that the major stock averages have now put in a continuation flag formation off of the initial drop that began at the beginning of August.  That's what it looks like after today.  I'll be watching for the S&P 500 to head down to 2725 and we'll have to hope that it holds on there.  The next support after that is much lower.  That's my prognosis for now despite whatever we hear about the tariff tiff.  The news there can cut both ways so you really have to be on your toes.  I did originally think that next week would be quiet but after today I doubt it.  Traders will vacation at their own risk.  Asia was higher and Europe lower in last nights trade.  I'll be checking the charts as usual but it won't take a genius to tell you that we're headed down.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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