We ended the month on a positive note as the Dow gained 108 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  This should move the summation index back to sideways.  Price action today came off of the highs set earlier in the session.  We'll get the Fed tomorrow but it should be a non-event.  I'm leaving my open order for the SPY August puts out there.  Another day like today and it might get filled.  If I do this trade I would like to be in it before Fridays jobs report.  GE was up 1/2 on good volume.  It looks like there could be a longer term double bottom in place here.  By longer term I mean that it has taken six months to form.  Gold was up a couple bucks and the US dollar was slightly higher as well.  The XAU was slightly higher and GDX was basically unchanged.  No love for the gold shares remains the theme here.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep enough.  Just another day in the summer for the market.  We had some snap back in the oversold small stocks to end the month.  Will we see some beginning of the month money flows tomorrow?  Has this short term decline run its course already?  Always plenty of questions in the game with the answers to come shortly.  The VIX rolled back down today and did not breach the 200 day moving average to the upside.  That can be viewed as a positive for the bulls.  I'm still in the camp that a bigger decline is coming here for stocks.  However if the RUT goes up from here and makes a new all time high, I'll change my view.  Hasn't happened yet.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  We'll see what the Fed has to say about things tomorrow.       

Heading lower today as the Dow fell 144 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is moving down.  It's no secret that we're heading lower.  Rallies can be sold in my humble opinion.  I do have an open order for the SPY August puts out there.  Whether or not it gets filled will depend on if we get some kind of snap back rally or not.  It may just be too late and we simply decline from here.  End of the month tomorrow, the Fed on Wednesday and the jobs report on Friday.  So there will be plenty for the market to chew on going forward this week.  The VIX has popped up to its 200 day moving average.  The small stocks have rolled over.  GE was up a dime on light volume.  Gold fell a couple bucks and the US dollar was lower as well.  The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional losses on very light volume.  My GDX September call position is solidly in the red.  Will the seasonality ever kick in?  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  There is no doubt that the tone of the market has changed to favor the bears.  We are in the seasonal weal period for stocks.  All they need to head lower is an excuse.  I can only hope for some kind of rally this week in an attempt to establish a short position.  I do not want to chase things here but I'm pretty sure that sellers will have the upper hand for a while.  I am a believer in the bearish candlestick pattern on the daily S&P 500 chart.  So for now I'll just wait and see if my open order gets filled in the near term.  The gold trade is out to September so I'll give it a little more time.  Europe and Asia were lower in last nights trade.  We'll close out the month of July tomorrow. 

GDP came in pretty good as expected but the Dow lost 76 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still trending lower.  The overall market was much weaker than the Dow, with the NASDAQ getting smashed.  The short term technical indicators are now rolling over.  I do believe that it's time to look at the index puts on any bounce from here.  RUT got clobbered today as well and closed below its 50 day moving average.  I think what we have here is a case of this is as good as it gets.  What will drive the market higher from here?  Earnings have been hit or miss, with some stocks being taken out to the wood shed.  We are in a seasonally weak period for stocks as well.  No summer doldrums today as the VIX surged up to its 200 day moving average.  I'll be taking a long look at the SPY August puts next week.  GE was off almost a dime on light volume.  GE has lost its leadership role for the market and I may simply stop reporting it.  Gold lost a few bucks as both the US dollar and US interest rates had a small decline despite the robust GDP report.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  My GDX September calls remain solidly in the red.  The seasonally strength that I was looking for hasn't showed up yet.  This trade may very well end up being another loser at this rate.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The daily candlestick chart for the S&P 500 now has a bearish topping pattern on it after todays price action.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over as well.  I will of course look things over again this weekend but the evidence suggests that index puts will be the way to go from here.  Although I was looking for new all time highs after the price action early this week, the market has changed.  I will try and change with it.  The signs are out there that a decline is in the works and has already started for the small caps.  So I will be keeping a close eye on things as we start next week, hoping for an entry point for the puts.  If we simply keep falling from here then it will be too late for me.  We've got the end of the month next week followed by the employment report on Friday.  There's also a Fed meeting in the middle of the week but that should be a non event.  No change in rates is expected.  Asia was mixed again last night with Europe higher.  I'll be going over the charts again this weekend but I'm pretty sure that we'll be heading lower from here.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.  

Another mixed bag today as the Dow gained 112 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The overall market was much weaker than the Dow, with losses in the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ.  The summation index is still trending lower.  Facebook stock got slammed today and that led to the overall market weakness.  We'll get the first look at the 2nd quarter GDP tomorrow and I expect some movement off of that.  Which way is the question.  The short term technical indicators are still overbought for the S&P.  This condition won't last forever but trying to predict the rollover is impossible.  GE was little changed again on average volume.  Gold fell $9 on the futures as the US dollar had a good day.  The XAU dropped 2 1/3, while GDX lost 3/8.  Volume was good.  Once again the gold shares have acted worse than the metal itself.  This is bearish as the gold shares simply remain oversold.  Tomorrows GDP report could be the clincher for a downside break down completely.  Mt GDX September calls are solidly in the red and it may be time to simply take the loss here.  We'll see what happens tomorrow.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  RUT turned back up today and that may be a good sign for the overall market.  But we didn't really get any good follow through to the upside from yesterdays gains with the exception of the Dow.  Yesterday it looked like we were on our way to new all time highs for the S&P.  After today it doesn't look like that so much.  Tomorrow could get interesting.  We'll be keeping an eye on things for sure.  There's still a possibility of a positive RSI divergence on the daily gold chart.  But it will have to get moving to the upside soon or that divergence won't mean anything.  The action in the gold shares kind of says that it won't.  Europe rallied and Asia was mixed in last nights trading.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow. 

The Dow continued its climb and gained 172 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still trending lower.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow with the small stocks leading the way.  All signs now are pointing to higher prices despite being overbought on the technical indicators.  The volume even though being average has picked up to the upside from the weak levels seen before.  The RUT isn't leading here but the NASDAQ set a new all time high today.  Earnings are coming in strong and the market certainly likes that.  The S&P 500 is within shouting distance of setting a new all time high.  That would negate my theory that the top was seen in January for the S&P.  It would also set aside my idea that we completed a five wave up pattern from the lows of 2009.  Basically all my ideas and trades since the beginning of the year would be wrong.  That kind of makes sense because I've had loser after loser trading the SPY.  We'll have to see if the S&P sets a new high.  GE was flat on light volume.  Gold rose $7 as the US dollar was weaker today.  The XAU and GDX had small fractional gains on average volume.  My GDX September calls are still in the red.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The TRAN bounced back strongly today and now has a bullish daily candlestick implying more gains to come.  Although the Dow is far from its all time high, the S&P is almost there.  The NYA remains pretty far from its all time high as well.  But the small stocks continue to act well.  That bodes well for the overall market.  It does appear that the S&P 500 will make it to new highs in the coming sessions.  Whether or not to get some SPY puts when it does is the question that I'm considering at the moment.  Perhaps going out to September would be the right idea here.  Or maybe the market just gets going higher and doesn't look back like it did in January.  Never any easy trades in this game.  The VIX remains low and that's a plus for higher prices as well.  So we'll see.  Asia was up and Europe down overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Kind of a mixed bag today but the Dow had a nice gain of 197 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index has started to trend lower.  The overall market was not as strong as the Dow, with the NASDAQ in the red.  The TRAN and the RUT were negative as well.  I'm still considering the SPY August puts at some point but would like to see some more upside towards 2850 on the S&P first.  Earnings are coming in good but we are not seeing a broad rally.  The big cap stock indices remain short term overbought.  The indicators for RUT have rolled over and RUT is usually a market leader.  I'd be cautious on the long side here.  GE was up 1/8 on lighter volume.  Gold finished little changed as did the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on OK volume.  My GDX September calls are in the red.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The day started out strong on the back of GOOG earnings but then drifted lower for much of the session.  There were no headlines out of Washington today.  We all know that won't last.  More earnings on the way and then the first look at second quarter GDP on Friday.  The VIX remains low so I'll be in a wait and see mode for now.  The atmosphere has a summer feel to it.  Not quite the doldrums but certainly a slow motion to things at the moment.  Europe and Asia rallied in last nights trading action.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The Dow fell 13 points today in lackluster trading.  Volume was light.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues its sideways action.  The S&P 500 along with the NASDAQ did have one day reversals to the upside.  So the overall market is acting better than the Dow.  Plenty of earnings due out this week to get things going one way or the other.  So we'll see.  The S&P did close above the 2800 level.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was heavy.  No love for GE here.  Gold fell $7 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU dropped 1 1/2 and GDX shed 1/2 on good volume.  The gold shares fared worse than gold itself and that's bearish going forward.  The seasonal strength in gold hasn't surfaced yet.  My September GDX calls are now firmly in the red and I may just have to get rid if them even with over two months to go in this trade.  The fundamentals for gold remain poor here with the rise in US interest rates.  Although the gold shares are both short and medium term oversold it appears that they are simply staying that way.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains low and I do think that we'll see higher prices for stocks this week.  My thinking now is that I'll wait and see if the S&P 500 can make it back up to 2850 and try the SPY puts there.  We've seen somewhat of a summer rally since the end of June.  Perhaps it can keep going to hit my price target for the puts.  We do remain short term overbought on the S&P.  There's still a potential positive RSI divergence on the daily gold chart.  But if the action of the gold shares today is any indication, this divergence will not pan out as planned.  We'll have to see how the rest of the week shapes up.  Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Pretty quiet as far as expirations go as the Dow lost 6 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is moving sideways.  I'm thinking that the summation index is moving sideways before it heads lower.  But that's just a guess at this point.  The market remains both short and medium term overbought but that doesn't mean it can't stay that way.  Plenty of earnings due next week and we'll have to see what the reaction is to the numbers.  Some economic data due out next week capped off by the first look at 2nd quarter GDP on Friday.  The tone of the market has seemed to slow here in the middle of July.  GE dropped almost 2/3 on very heavy volume.  The earnings were OK but I guess they didn't like the talk from the CEO.  I don't have any trades in mind for GE.  Gold was up $7 on the futures as the US dollar took a hit today, possibly because Trump complained about the rise in US interest rates.  But the Trump effects on the markets are generally short lived because he changes his mind from one day to the other.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on average volume.  The gold shares certainly did not react to Trump.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  My GDX September call trade is showing a small loss.  I'm inclined to hold this trade for some time, since there's an extra week in the September option cycle.  I also would like to give a chance for the seasonal strengthening pattern to go into effect.  So I'll be holding on for now.  There is also a potential positive RSI divergence that just took place on the daily chart.  If that actually happens, this trade should turn out to be a winner.  RUT is stalling here but it may simply be a pause before it moves to new all time highs again.  A lot will be determined next week as the big tech stocks are due to report.  I'm still considering the SPY August puts.  Asia was up and Europe down in last nights trade.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to come up with some kind of idea as what to do next week.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Some selling today as the Dow shed 134 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive though.  The summation index is moving sideways.  RUT was higher today.  The market is trying to make up its mind on what to do here.  Still short term overbought on the major stock indices.  The S&P 500 remains above the 2800 level for now.  We're either forming a top here or pausing before an attempt at new all time highs for the S&P.  I am still looking at the SPY August puts.  No hurry to purchase though.  GE was basically flat but volume picked up.  Gold bounced around today and ended up losing $5 on the futures.  The US dollar finished little changed again.  The XAU fell 1 1/8, while GDX lost over 1/4.  Volume picked up going lower.  There's really no chart support here for gold and the gold shares.  My GDX September calls are now in the red.  Gold will have to turn around here soon or this trade will be dead.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX perked up a bit today and has plenty of room to move higher as it remains oversold.  That would seem to place a better chance that we're forming some type of top here.  Option expiration tomorrow so we'll see if there's any fireworks with that.  The market seems to be searching for direction in the past week and a half.  I'll try and remain patient for now but I think that the odds favor some kind of drop here versus another leg up rally.  I could be wrong and often am.  I think that I'll let tomorrow pass and take things from there.  Asia and Europe were lower in overnight trade.  We'll see how the expiration goes tomorrow.

Yesterday was a rare missed day for the blog as I was called away from the market with a couple of hours left in the trading day and did not return until late at night.  We all know that the market waits for no one.  Yesterday the Dow gained 79 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  We finished above the important 2800 level on the S&P 500.  Gold finished little changed and the dollar was a bit weaker.  More on todays price action a little later. 

We had a one day reversal back to the upside as the Dow gained 55 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The NASDAQ hit a new all time high.  The VIX is back to the 12 level but I don't think it will go much lower.  But what do I know?  Maybe we are going to new all time highs on the S&P 500 as well.  The Fed chief spoke today and the market liked what it heard.  I'm still looking at the SPY August puts.  We remain overbought for the S&P both short and medium term.  GE was off about 1/4 on average volume.  Gold took a hit today with the futures down a dozen.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves on better volume.  The gold shares acted much better than the price of gold and that is usually a positive.  But gold has broken its near term support here, so I can't really feel too bullish.  My open order for the GDX September calls was filled.  So the next trade is on.  Plenty of time for this trade to work out if the usual positive seasonal effect takes place.  We'll see.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  We finally had a decent close above the 2800 level for the S&P 500.  This occurred despite poor earnings from NFLX, which sent things lower at the open.  This can only be seen as a positive, as the market rallied on bad news.  Or it may be the positive expiration week bias in effect.  Whatever the reason or excuse, you cannot deny the price action.  Once again the only caveat is the low volume but that may be a summer byproduct.  I would like to get some SPY puts for next month but I suppose I'll wait and see if we make it back to the all time highs first.  At this point we're overbought and staying that way.  The gold shares are just the opposite, oversold both short and medium term.  Asia was lower and Europe rose last night.  We'll see if we get any upside follow through tomorrow.   

A mixed bag to begin the week as the Dow rose 44 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The summation index should turn around today but it may be just sideways for now.  Or not.  RUT was lower and it has been the leader so far this year.  The TRAN took a hit and sits right on its 200 day moving average.  The major stock indices are overbought and the VIX is oversold and that is a recipe for a decline of some sort in the near term.  I could be wrong.  It is options expiration week though and the positive bias may have an effect on prices.  I am looking at the SPY August puts.  GE was flat and volume was light.  Gold was slightly lower as was the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  I adjusted down my open order for the GDX September calls just a touch.  This order is close to being filled and I may just go ahead and have it filled tomorrow.  However if the overall market rolls over here, I would expect the gold shares to go with it and that would turn this idea into a losing trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The S&P 500 has been hanging around the 2800 level for 3 days and can't seem to make up its mind what it wants to do here.  I am more of a believer in the puts here than the calls despite options expiration.  But I am not going to attempt a trade with 4 days left in the July option cycle for the July SPY options.  The risk is  not worth it in my humble opinion.  Plus the volume has been pretty weak lately and that may be the summer doldrums effect taking place.  That would mean the market may just meander this week.  So for now I'll keep an eye on GDX and the SPY August put prices.  Europe and Asia were weaker overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the trading overnight.

A positive Friday the 13th for the Dow as it gained 94 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index is moving up but not with conviction.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The S&P 500 closed just above 2800.  It seems as though we're at the moment of truth for the S&P and whether it will get through 2800.  The volume on the rise has been pretty light and it will have to pick up to make me a believer in the rally going through 2800.  Option expiration week is upon us and that is usually a plus for the bulls.  We remain short term overbought.  GE was off a dime on average volume.  Gold dropped $5 and the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses again on light volume.  I adjusted down my buy price for the GDX September calls again.  The bearish engulfing pattern on the weekly candlestick chart says next week should see some downside.  Gold is oversold on a daily and weekly basis.  But it needs to hold the 1235 to 1240 level or I don't know how far it could drop.  I'm still willing to attempt the GDX trade here based on the seasonal factor but there's no guarantee that it will work every year.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We're still at the mercy of the headlines but haven't had any news of late to affect the stock market.  Earnings are coming out and they're expected to be good.  I'm now looking at the SPY August puts.  If my thesis that the rally from 2009 is over, we shouldn't hit new all time highs in the S&P 500 going forward.  RUT is generally a leader and it has begun to stall here.  There is also a potential negative RSI divergence on its weekly chart.  The VIX got below 12 today and is oversold.  Hopefully going out to August will give this idea some time to work.  I'll have to double check everything over the weekend.  Light volume remains a concern.  Asia and Europe showed gains overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Yesterdays decline appears to be a one day wonder as the Dow climbed 224 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is back to trending up.  The NASDAQ hit a new all time high today and that bodes well for the bulls going forward.  The summer rally lives on.  Perhaps we'll get the usual positive bias during expiration week and a run up into next Friday.  The trade tariffs were only good for a day of decline.  Earnings are the focus now and we'll get some from the banking sector tomorrow.  Stocks remain overbought on a short term technical basis.  The S&P 500 is right at the important 2800 level.  Perhaps we'll get through tomorrow.  GE was flat on light volume.  Gold was up a little and so was the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on lighter volume.  I adjusted down my GDX September call order.  I do think that maybe next week will be the time to make this purchase.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Buyers showed up today and that is encouraging from the long side.  The volume lately has been pretty weak and that is a concern.  It may just be the summer factor and that wouldn't be a problem.  But if it isn't because of summer then we have the issue of a light volume rally.  Those can never be trusted.  So we'll see how it goes going forward.  I'm still in the rally from 2009 is over camp.  Europe and Asia rebounded last night too.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Tariffs returned to the news and subsequently the Dow dropped.  The most watched index shed 219 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index should start to stall here and turn sideways if not lower if stocks keep dropping.  That will be the question going forward.  Was today just a one day event or have we begun to roll over once again?  The S&P 500 turned away just shy of the 2800 level.  That is a key to watch to see if we can break that to the upside.  The small stocks may be putting in short term double tops here as well.  So even though it's summer, we are at an important juncture for the market in my mind.  The VIX is still below the 15 level but we're bouncing off of oversold readings on the short term indicators.  I'll be keeping a close eye on things as they develop going forward.  GE was off around 20 cents on light volume.  GE may have a short term double top on the daily chart as well.  Gold was lower as commodities dropped hard today, most likely tariff related.  The precious metal futures dipped over a dozen as the US dollar rallied.  The XAU lost 2 1/2, while GDX fell almost 2/3.  Volume was heavy.  I adjusted my open order for the GDX September calls lower.  I may be early on this trade because todays price action was pretty bearish.  If it holds for the week, the weekly candlestick chart for GDX will have a bearish engulfing pattern.  That implies even lower prices to come.  The short term technical indicators have all rolled over here.  So I may adjust the order again overnight depending on what gold does before the US open tomorrow.  Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well or enough.  I think that we'll know soon enough if the summer rally is really here or that prices remain in a trading range.  I haven't given up on the idea that the rally from 2009 is over.  That is my main premise and I am looking for a substantial drop in stocks in the months ahead.  I may even begin looking at the SPY August puts.  Unfortunately we are back to the headline risk environment and that is unpredictable.  It makes the trading harder than usual and it's a challenge to begin with.  Today could have been worse for stocks so we'll have to see where we go from here.  Europe and Asia had sell offs as well.  We'll keep an eye on the headlines tonight and see where things go tomorrow. 

The beat goes on as the Dow rose 143 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index is still moving up.  The advance got narrower today with the Dow leading the way.  I did think about getting some SPY July puts today because this seems like a good spot to try them but I did not place an order.  The small stocks were laggards and the RUT was negative.  So perhaps we will see some double tops here in the smaller stock indices.  Hasn't happened yet.  The VIX is now oversold so we may see some selling in stocks tomorrow.  GE was up almost 1/4 on light volume today.  Gold was off a few bucks and the US dollar finished the session little changed.  The XAU and GDX had minor fractional gains on light volume.  I did place an order for the GDX September calls today.  We'll need to see some weakness in the gold shares for this to be filled.  I'm not exactly sure that this is the right idea but I'm willing to take the chance here.  It appears that I may not be alone as selling in the gold shares today was met with buying.  One caveat is that the US dollar is oversold and due for at least a bounce in the near term.  So we'll see.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The S&P 500 is getting ever so close to the resistance of 2800.  That would be the logical place to attempt something on the short side.  Perhaps I'll give it a shot if and when it gets there.  The S&P is getting short term overbought but as we've seen before it can stay that way during rallies.  It does seem as though we are right now in the traditional summer rally.  So like any trade, nothing is for sure and the risk is out there.  Inflation data in the next couple of sessions and perhaps they will be market movers.  The short term technical indicators for gold are about mid-range here, so it could go either way in the near term.  I'll be keeping an eye on it.  The gold share indices are more overbought though.  I'm relying on the seasonal strength for gold to kick in at some point for the GDX call idea.  Europe and Asia were higher again overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

The rally is on as the Dow soared 320 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  Trade tariff fears have moved to the sidelines as buyers have emerged.  The volume remains light but the VIX is well below  the important 15 level.  It stands at 12 and change for now.  Perhaps a trade for the SPY July puts will set up in the coming days.  However the short term technical indicators are not completely overbought just yet.  So for now it's a watch and wait period for me.  GE was up a dime on what passes for average volume now.  Gold and the US dollar were both slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  They did have a one day reversal to the downside though as they both opened higher and closed lower.  Perhaps we'll get a chance to purchase the GDX September calls in the coming days.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Some of the small cap indices are knocking on the door of new all time highs.  The S&P 500 is getting close to the resistance at 2800.  What happens there will be the key as to whether we attempt a run at the all time highs in the S&P.  I'm still in the camp that the rally that began in 2009 is over.  So we'll have to see what happens in the coming days.  Earnings season is back upon us and the earnings have been pretty good lately.  We'll have to see if they're enough to lead the market to new all time highs.  We'll get inflation data this week as well.  For now we'll wait and see if the small caps are making double tops or not.  We should know the answers soon.  But it does feel like a summer rally is in progress and higher prices are in the cards.  Europe and Asia were higher to begin the week as well.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.     

Higher to close out the week as the Dow gained 99 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were once again shy of 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is heading higher.  The jobs report came in about where expected and the market rose from the first hour on.  The small stocks led the way and that's a positive.  The volume is light but we may simply chalk that up to the holiday week but it is something to keep an eye on.  The VIX closed below 14 and that is probably more important than the volume.  The summer rally is on.  GE gained 3/8 on light volume.  Gold lost a couple bucks and the US dollar was lower as well.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on average volume.  I'm still looking at the GDX September calls on a pullback.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It appears that the bulk of the major US stock indices have found support at their 50 day moving averages and are now poised for near term gains.  The short term technical indicators are rising with room to go before reaching overbought.  I don't think that we're going to new all time highs for the S&P 500 but I could be wrong.  I do think we are in the traditional summer rally though.  2800 will be the key level to watch for the S&P if and when we get there.  If the volume remains light on the way up, it may be the place to try the puts.  If volume picks up and breaks through that level then perhaps the all time highs will be challenged.  We'll see how it goes as the days progress.  Gold had a bounce this week and we'll see what it does from here.  I'm in the bullish camp here for a seasonal push higher.  Whether or not I can trade it will depend on the price action from here.  Asia and Europe were higher in last nights trade.  Still two weeks to go in the July option cycle.  I don't have any SPY trades in mind at the moment.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A rally today ahead of tomorrows jobs numbers as the Dow climbed 181 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index back to the upside.  Todays price action seems to say there will be a positive market resolution to tomorrows employment report.  We'll see.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock indices have now turned back up with room to roam higher.  The VIX closed just below 15 so tomorrow will be a key.  If we drop below 15 on the VIX and stay there then the summer rally is on.  If not it will more of sideways to down.  To me it looks like the market is poised to go higher.  GE was up a few cents on lighter volume.  It did finish well above its lows for the session.  Gold was flat on the futures as the US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on a bit better than average volume.  Getting overbought for the short term here but there's room on the indicators to go higher.  My hope is that I haven't missed the longer term gold share call trade here.  I'm going to wait and see if we drop back a little here before placing an order.  I'm considering the GDX September calls but the option premiums have already moved up.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The volume is lighter this week as many players are off to the beaches.  However the market goes on regardless of vacation plans.  My thinking now is that we are going to move higher.  The fact that we were able to completely turn around the negative action of Tuesday cannot be ignored.  The market goes where it wants to.  I'm hoping for some weakness in the gold shares because it looks like the seasonal strength for that group has begun.  I do not want to chase it and I may be wrong about it as well.  But the volume and price action in the past week seems to be saying it's time to get on board.  We should get some movement in gold and the US dollar off of the jobs report.  I'll be up early in the morning to take a look at that.  Asia was lower and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll finish out the shortened trading week tomorrow.  All eyes will be on the employment numbers.

A one day reversal back to the downside today as the Dow dropped 132 points in a holiday shortened session.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive though.  Not sure what that means but it should turn the summation index sideways.  The usual positive market activity around July the 4th did not take place today.  The market activity remains sloppy.  The short term technical indicators remain oversold.  The VIX got below the 15 level and abruptly turned back up.  We may be back in that range again for the VIX where 15 is the bottom.  If so expect more volatility going forward and lower prices.  That seems to be where we are headed.  GE was flat and the volume light.  Gold found buyers today as the futures rose a dozen.  $1240 has held for now.  The XAU added 1 3/4, while GDX was up 3/8.  Volume was good for a shortened session.  We saw gold drop yesterday but the gold shares didn't react.  Today we saw both gold and the gold shares move up.  We also saw the gold shares run up two days ago when gold barely moved.  What it looks like to me is that money is starting to come into the gold shares.  The seasonality strength time period for gold is coming up.  I am now pretty sure that the GDX September calls will be my next trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I don't want to make a lot of the price action today but it is concerning.  With the jobs report on Friday, this could be a week that you need to pay more attention than usual for a holiday week.  We'll have to see how the foreign markets do over the next couple of sessions before Thursdays open.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  We'll enjoy the 4th of July holiday tomorrow and be back here on Thursday.   

A one day reversal to the upside to start the month as the Dow opened lower and closed higher.  It gained 35 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still trending lower.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow and that is a positive.  The positive holiday bias looks like it will work this year.  Could this be the beginning of a summer rally?  I'm not exactly sure about that but it's possible.  I don't have any SPY trades in mind at the moment but there is plenty of time left in the July option cycle.  GE was off 1/4 on average volume.  Gold dropped over a dozen on the futures as the US dollar bounced back.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on average volume.  I am looking at the September gold share calls as the next trade.  The seasonality sets up for this trade in the time frame form now until then.  If the gold shares can get back down to all the way oversold in the next couple of weeks, I will attempt this idea.  This may or may not happen.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market did manage to come back today but there really wasn't any catalyst for the reversal.  Foreign markets got slammed and that helped lead the US lower early on.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages are still oversold but they have turned back up.  RUT held its 50 day moving average and the TRAN had a good day.  So all in all I would say that in the short term we should move higher this week.  Volume will most likely be lighter than usual due to the holiday.  We'll deal with the employment report on Friday.  Europe and Asia were sold off overnight.  We'll have a holiday shortened session tomorrow in the US.  I'd expect to continue to drift upwards.  We'll see.