Friday, May 16, 2014
We ended the week on a positive note as the Dow gained 44 points on light volume. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. The S&P 500 is still holding on to its 50 day moving average. The short term technicals are mid-range here so we could go either way. The summation index has been flip flopping back and forth. We are in a period of indecision in my view. However I am still wary of any rally from here and will be looking for an entry point to purchase some puts. GE was up a few cents and the volume remains light. The gold futures were flat on the day and the US dollar had little movement as well. The XAU was down 3/4 or so. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. I had to dump the June ABX calls that I bought last week for a 70% loss. The longer term weekly basis up trend line was broken here. I tried the ABX calls twice and was wrong both times. Who knows, I may try them again at some point. The gold shares continue to under perform and they remain oversold on both a short and medium term basis. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Another losing trade in the books. I've already given back most of the gains made for the year. The markets don't care though. I'll be looking for some kind of strategy over the weekend to move forward. Volume has been pretty weak for the stock indices lately and that is not a positive. The lagging small stocks are not a good sign going forward either. But we cannot argue with price and the Dow did hit a new all time high this week. Gold remains range bound and it feels as if this condition has been lasting forever. Trading the gold shares from the long side remain a frustrating experience. Oversold and staying that way. Even with all the turmoil in the world, gold can't get a rally going. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual. Perhaps I can gather up a winning game plan for the next trade. You always have to keep moving in this game. There really is no time for pity or self doubt. There are plenty of opportunities in the markets. You just have to be good enough to take advantage of them. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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