Monday, May 05, 2014
A one day reversal to the upside as the Dow fell 125 points at the open and came all the way back to finish with a gain of 17 points on very light volume. The advance/declines were barely negative. Positive market action to be sure. Some foreign markets were closed today, so that could account for the light volume. The McClellan oscillator is forecasting a big move here. I don't know if todays action was it. The small stocks are still way behind here. Even if we get a rally in the next couple of days, I'm still advising caution on getting too bullish. GE was off 10 cents and the volume was very light. Gold was up 6 bucks on the futures today. The US dollar was little changed on the session. The XAU was off 1/4. ABX, GG and NEM all had very slight fractional gains on the same light volume. My May ABX calls are still in the red. This week should tell the story for this trade. Still a chance that it will work out but time is not on my side here. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. So where do we go from here? You can make a case for either direction for the stock indexes. We are still short term overbought on the technicals. The price action was bullish today. We'll see if we get some upside follow through tomorrow. Gold broke through the short term down trend line today that has been in effect since March. The only caveat was the volume wasn't strong. Also still below the 50 day moving average here. The gold shares did not participate in the upside with gold and that is a negative. Nine days to go in the May option cycle. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and go from there.
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