Tuesday, May 20, 2014
Heading lower today as the Dow fell 137 points on light volume. The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. No reason for the decline really and it wasn't as bad as the Dow loss appears. The overall market didn't fall as much. I'd like to say I know what kind of market environment that we're in right now but I don't. There isn't a clear signal one way or the other. I'm still leaning towards some OEX puts at some point in the June option cycle. The S&P 500 is still in an uptrend until it breaks and closes below 1860. GE was off 1/3 and the volume remains light. We're still above the 50 day moving average here. Gold and the US dollar were flat on the day again. The XAU was off 3/8. ABX and GG were up pennies, while NEM rose 1/4. Volume remains light here. Still no interest in gold or the gold shares. Gold continues its sideways movement and the gold shares remain trending lower. Mentally I'm feeling OK. So where do we go from here for the stock indices? I'm still in the caution camp. The Dow is right at the short term uptrend line that started in February. Perhaps the Dow will be the leader this time around. That is just a guess as usual. As I have said before, we are closer to the highs than the lows in the stock market. The uptrend line comes in at 825 for the OEX. The story for gold remains the same. Turmoil throughout the world and gold doesn't rally. That isn't bullish. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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