Friday, May 09, 2014
Another day of the markets just hanging around really as the Dow gained 32 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. Still waiting for some kind of break out one way or the other for the major stock indices. Perhaps expiration week can get things moving. Sideways is not the preferred path when taking option positions unless you are writing them. The short term technicals could go either way but I think the longer we just nowhere, the better the chance is that we drop. The second half of May is generally not positive for stocks. GE was flat on the session and the volume was extremely light. More oversold than overbought here. Gold was flat on the futures which wasn't bad considering the strong move in the US dollar today. The inverse correlation between gold and the dollar hasn't been in effect lately. Not sure what that means. The XAU fell 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM were all flat on the day with very light volume. I did not sell the May ABX calls today but probably should have. This trade is going to be a big loss regardless. I figured I'd wait to see if we get a bump up on Monday if the Ukraine vote over the weekend is to secede. I did purchase some June ABX calls as we finished the week right on the longer term trend line that I have been talking about. If the line holds, this trade will be profitable. If not, it won't. We'll probably find out next week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. It seems like we have been waiting forever for the stock indexes to do something other than move sideways. The markets always just go where they want though. You cannot project what you want on the market. Patience cannot be underrated. The summation index has been pretty much moving sideways as well. I think when this thing breaks out, it will be big. Gold continues to frustrate as well as it moves between the band mentioned yesterday. No telling when or which way the breakout there is coming either. I've rolled into the June ABX calls and I'm pretty sure next week will tell the story here. Nothing to do but continue to check the charts over the weekend and go from there. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.
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