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Thursday, May 29, 2014

The Dow continues on higher as it gained 65 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  We hit new highs on the S&P 500.  The OEX set a new all time high.  There is no overhead resistance.  The technicals are overbought and staying there.  Perhaps this is the blow off top that I mentioned had a chance but I certainly didn't predict it.  My June OEX puts are losers but not 50% yet.  I suppose if they get to that much of a loss, I'll have to dump them.  Poor timing on my part.  I'm still a believer to not chase this rally but I could be wrong and often am.  GE was up a few cents and the volume remains light.  That is the problem here in my view.  The volume on this stock market rally is so light that it cannot be trusted.  Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures, while the US dollar finished the day basically unchanged.  The XAU was up 3/4.  ABX and GG were little changed.  NEM gained 1/4.  Volume remains light.  I'm in no hurry to purchase any gold share calls yet but I probably will do so in June or July.  I'm still looking at the October cycle for that trade.  Mentally I'm feeling stupid for not waiting to purchase the June OEX puts.  There were signs that some more upside was possible.  I think that I was anxious to put on a trade after researching it  over the long holiday weekend.  This trade may work itself out but it certainly doesn't look that way now.  There are still three weeks to go.  However if we are in a blow off top situation, the market could even take off from here.  The technicals are overbought both short and medium term.  That doesn't mean that they can't get even more overbought.  The volume is anemic and I am counting on that to mean something.  It usually does.  The story for gold hasn't changed.  Lower prices and no interest.  I do like to pick things up when nobody wants them but I don't want to be early here.  We'll watch the overnight market action and finish off the short trading week tomorrow.

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