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Tuesday, May 27, 2014

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 69 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  New highs in the S&P 500.  The broader market was stronger than the Dow.  The summation index is heading higher.  Against this positive backdrop I bought some June OEX puts today.  I think that I am early on this trade.  I also was not patient even during todays session to buy them.  Plenty of time for this trade to work out but I probably should have waited to get them at least until tomorrow.  They are showing a slight loss.  GE was up a few cents and the volume was light.  Gold broke down below support today as the precious metal futures dropped over $25 breaching the $1280 level.  The US dollar was little changed on the day.  The XAU fell 3 1/8.  ABX off 1/2, while GG and NEM fell 7/8.  Volume picked up to the downside.  We now have the direction for gold, lower.  How far it drops is the next question.  I am still looking at the calls for ABX in October.  Plenty of time to let things sort out here.  There still is no interest in owning gold or the gold shares.  When everybody else is selling is when you want to be buying.  I'll probably get some gold share calls in June or July.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  So perhaps we are on our way to a blow off top.  Or maybe this is the sustained rally I've been looking for.  Time will tell.  I still don't trust light volume rallies.  But my timing for this OEX put trade appears to be off.  The short term technicals are overbought here.  We appear to be breaking out above the rising wedge pattern on the daily charts.  That was not the expectation.  I'll give the trade a couple of days at least and see what the market does.  End of the month coming up this week as well.  We see what has happened to gold and the gold shares.  The question is now how low will we go?  I'll be watching the overseas action tonight and take it from there. 

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