Thursday, December 15, 2011
We tried to move higher today but didn't have much success. The Dow gained 45 points today on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. We bounced at the open and then drifted for the rest of the day. The market is still preoccupied with Europe and that isn't going away anytime soon. Summation index still heading down, implying lower prices. Option expiration tomorrow. The technicals on the stock indices aren't overbought or oversold. Perhaps drift is the best we can expect at this point. The economic data came out with what looks to be better than expected numbers. No OEX trades in mind at the moment. GE was up 1/8 on light volume. GE is holding up well here and the GE calls I own are still in the black. Gold continued lower today after yesterdays collapse. The precious metal fell about $10 on the futures and a bit more in the aftermarket. This happened despite the US dollar losing some ground today. The XAU was off 2 points. ABX lost 1/2, GG down 1/8 and NEM was up 1/8. Volume was average. I would expect some type of near term bounce in gold and the gold shares. If I hadn't just tried the ABX calls and lost I would probably try them again here. However my confidence is low. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Trying to put the ABX loss behind me. It really doesn't mean anything going forward. The next trade and managing the GE trade are what's important now. My ideas lately haven't panned out. So like I said yesterday, I'm probably done trading for the year. But you never know. The stock indices are drifting lower here and are approaching a 1 1/2 month uptrend line on a daily basis. Whether or not that line holds will be the key to near term direction. Gold has fallen out of bed and it will take some time to recover from that in my opinion. We'll see what kind of expiration we get tomorrow and then look forward to the weekend.
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