Thursday, December 08, 2011
We got some downside today as the Dow dropped 198 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative. The rumblings from Europe are now that whatever they do tomorrow won't be enough. Or perhaps tomorrow everything will be OK. That is the kind of game we're playing at the moment. I have no idea what will happen, as usual. We're overbought on the stock indices, so some downside is to be expected. I do not think this is the beginning of a huge move lower. I still think that declines can be bought. However in this type of news driven environment anything is possible. That is what makes the trading even more difficult than usual. GE fell almost 1/2 on average volume. The calls I own are still in the black but lost some ground today. I'm still a believer in this trade and I intend on holding them for now. The idea is to remain in this trade until next year. We'll see. Gold fell today as the US dollar rallied. The precious metal was down around $30 on the futures. The XAU fell 6 2/3. ABX and GG slumped 1 1/2, while NEM dropped 1 2/3. Volume was about average for what we've seen lately. I did place an order for some ABX January calls and left it in overnight. If we continue lower this trade might get filled. The gold shares aren't completely oversold yet, so it may be early for this idea to work out. I'll readjust tomorrow. If the US dollar begins to rally now due to Europe, it won't be bullish for gold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. So we finally got the expected downside today. I really do not think that it will last too long. The technicals I look at are pointing to some decent upside at some point next week. But I could be wrong and often am. 6 days to go on the December option cycle. I do not foresee any short term trades before expiration but that could change as well. I'll check the charts again tonight and take it from there.
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