Wednesday, December 14, 2011
Continuing lower today as the Dow lost 131 points on average volume. The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. The technicals have rolled over, which isn't bullish. The dropping euro is todays excuse for the negative action in the stock indices. The positive action that I expected hasn't taken place. My take on things here has been wrong. However I'm still a believer in higher prices going forward. GE bucked the trend and was up about 1/4 on good volume. The GE calls I own are still in the black. I like the relative strength of GE here but anything can happen. I still plan on holding the GE calls until next year but everything is subject to change. Gold was the story of the day again as the futures collapsed by almost $80. The US dollar was higher once again. The XAU was off 5 1/4, which wasn't too bad considering the carnage in gold itself. ABX down 2, GG lost a buck and NEM fell 1 1/2. Volume was very heavy. Today could be the washout for the gold shares and a bounce would be due. However I simply dumped the ABX calls that I bought yesterday for a 45% loss. This is a trade that isn't going to work, even with a bounce. Another loser and I'll probably end the trading year on that note. Oversold and staying there for the gold shares. Technical damage has been done on the downside for gold and it will probably take a while to repair. Mentally I'm feeling OK. We are approaching a near term uptrend line in the stock indices, so we'll have to see if it holds. Summation index heading lower and that is not good for the long side. Expiration week has had a downside bias so far and it's usually just the opposite. GE is holding up well. Nothing positive to say about the ABX trade. Sometimes you're just wrong. Volatility has picked up and I didn't expect that either. My guess is that things would slow down as the holidays approached and that wasn't right either. We'll see what happens tomorrow.
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