Monday, December 19, 2011
We started the week on a down note as the Dow fell 100 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. Trying to hold the 50 day moving average in the Dow. We are moving toward the daily uptrend line that began in October. Whether or not that line holds will be the key. I do believe that it will but that doesn't mean that it will. Summation index still heading lower. Moving to getting oversold on the daily stock index technicals. I'd like to think that we are setting things up for a Santa Claus rally. GE fell 1/8 on light volume. GE is still holding up well compared to the overall market. Overbought here though and some type of decline is overdue. My GE calls remain in the black. Holding them until further notice. Gold bounced around today and ended up nearly unchanged. The US dollar had a slight gain. The XAU dropped 4 1/4. ABX fell 1/3, GG down 1 3/4 and NEM lost 1 1/8. Volume was average. The Gold/XAU ratio is almost at the buy signal and that is worrisome for me because I may put on another gold share call trade. Worrisome because gold and the gold shares have really broken down here and technical damage has been done. They could remain oversold for a while, in which case they will continue lower and buying the calls won't work. So I am going to try and remain on the sidelines and patient here. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well. I'm anticipating a slow week but it hasn't started off that way. As I said before, my thoughts on the markets lately have been way off. I am going to try and wait until next year to put on any new trades but you never know. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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