Friday, December 16, 2011
Another rally that fizzled, as the Dow fell 2 points today on heavy volume. We were up 100 early. The advance/declines were positive. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. We got through option expiration and now we are entering holiday mode in my opinion. I'm expecting less volatility and more drift. It's still a headline driven game for now but I do expect less of that until next year. I could be wrong and have been lately. GE was up about 20 cents on average volume. Overbought here now. My GE calls are still profitable. I'm a holder until next year until further notice. Gold had a bounce today, the futures were up 20 bucks. The US dollar dropped a bit. The XAU rose 2 3/4 but was higher early. ABX and GG were both up 80 cents, while NEM rose 1/2. Volume was average for lately. I don't think we will be getting a sustained rally in the gold shares yet. I still want to try the calls again but not now. I think that waiting for the Gold/XAU ratio to hit the buy signal would be prudent. If and when that occurs, along with oversold technicals, could be the point to try the calls here again. There is no rush for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. It was a losing week for me as gold got slaughtered right after I purchased the ABX calls. As I said before, that is probably the last trade for me to put on this year. I expect things to quiet down into the new year as the holidays arrive. There's also an extra week in the January option cycle and the premiums are high. It's a time to be patient in my opinion. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.
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