The market continues to drop here as the Dow fell 138 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  This should turn the summation index lower.  I'm not sure what is going on here.  I now have solid buy signals on a couple of my indicators.  However the market has the feel of wanting to fall apart here.  We are however, not in a crash zone on the summation index.  My weekly SPY April call trade was a 100% loser.  That is ridiculous.  I was so certain that we'd see some upside that I never even put in a stop loss order.  Unacceptable.  Not to mention that the entry was wrong and we are in a holiday week.  I don't know what I was thinking but it was all wrong.  Today I actually placed another order for the SPY April calls but later canceled it.  Some of my technical indicators are in the buy zone both short and medium term.  But I really have to think about what is going on here and I do not want to make a trade to just try and make back what I just lost.  I'll consider what to do over the weekend.  GE was off 20 cents and the volume was light.  The daily technical indicators have rolled over here.  Gold was up over $10 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit lower but came up from the lows of the day.  It appears like a flight to safety is in order as the US has just dropped some kind of huge bomb on Afghanistan.  But the gold shares were quiet as the XAU and GDX finished the session little changed on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Interesting markets as it looks like we are about to drop below the support of a trading range that has been in effect for weeks on some of the major indices.  Some of the technical indicators are not completely oversold so there is a chance that we are going to see some extended decline after a bounce.  That's my guess at the moment but my take on things here is shaky at best..  My own indicators indicate that upside is due.  The VIX indicators are in the area where at least a bounce is seen.  I will really have to consider getting long on weakness Monday morning.  However my confidence isn't exactly in a good place after the last trade.  I also don't want to compound the recent loss with another negative trade.  But it does look like an opportunity here for me, if I can manage it properly.  That remains to be seen.  It seems like there just were not any buyers this week, for whatever reasons.  Geo-political concerns are in the forefront as well.  I'll have to go over the charts this weekend and try and decide what to do.  Also the sooner I put the losing trade behind me, the better my mind will be at trying to figure out where to go next.  The game is never easy and the battle with myself never ends.  Asia was mostly lower and Europe was red across the board.  Plenty to ponder in the next 3 days.  For now it's Thursday afternoon and a long weekend break is upon us.

Heading lower as the Dow fell 59 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving up but prices are not.  I don't know what to make of that.  My weekly SPY April calls are dead.  The upside I expected never materialized and is long overdue.  I will try and sell these tomorrow if possible if we get a pop at the open.  But they will be 90% or more losers.  Bad entry and trying the weekly options again was the wrong idea.  I should have cut the loss right away but expected at least some upside this week.  It never happened.  My read on things here is wrong and I'll have to return to the sidelines I suppose.  I still think that yesterdays low should be some type of bottom here.  GE was off 1/4 and volume picked up a little going lower.  Gold was up a bit again on the futures as the US dollar fell almost 1/2.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Way overdue for some type of bounce here in my opinion.  I'm not saying that it would be the start of another leg up but we are at a point where at least some upside should have occurred.  But as usual the market goes where it wants.  Light volume and no interest is not the best trading environment.  The buyers have disappeared.  After yesterdays comeback to almost unchanged, I expected some follow through to the upside.  It didn't happen.  My management of this trade has been awful.  It's a step backwards really.  If I had some more confidence, I would purchase some SPY April calls that expire next Friday.  But the prudent thing for me to do here is sit things out until the next valid signal comes around.  The SPY trade that I did this week did not fit those parameters.  I think it was more of a case of me wanting to do something rather than wait for a decent set up.  That's on me.  The toughest battle for me in the game is always against myself.  So where do we go from here?  The VIX is overbought and at levels where we should see some type of move higher in equity prices.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled over.  They are  not oversold at the moment.  So it is a mixed picture at best.  With the lack of participation lately, sitting out for a while is the course that I will probably take.  I'll book the loss tomorrow and then try to collect my thoughts over the long weekend.  Asia was mixed and Europe generally lower last night.  We'll finish up the trading week tomorrow.

Volatility returns but the Dow made yet another comeback.  The most watched index was off almost 150 points in the morning and finished the day with a loss of 6 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The summation index is still moving higher but prices are not.  My weekly SPY April calls are in the red with only 2 days to go.  It is a cut the loss trade at this point.  I still expect some strength here in the next couple of sessions but it probably won't be enough to save this trade.  This morning was the time to try the SPY April calls.  Retrospect is always on time.  The VIX shot up to its highest level this year today.  GE was up a few cents and the volume remains light.  Gold found a bid as the futures rallied over $20.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU jumped 2 1/3, while GDX gained 3/4.  Volume was good to the upside.  Lower yields combined with geo-political tensions were the main drivers.  I'm not sure how long that will last.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm once again not exactly sure of what to make of the good breadth without the corresponding upward move in price.  The RUT is acting well here and that is bullish in my book.  However the light volume remains a concern but that may be due to a holiday week and spring break.  That also could be the reason for the pick up in volatility but that's a guess as usual.  The upside that I was looking for is overdue so I expect a positive day either tomorrow or Thursday.  I'd be very surprised if we simply continued lower.  But I also have to admit that my take on things here isn't exactly clear.  I'm also wondering if I simply put on this SPY trade because I wanted to do something before the expiration.  The signal wasn't exactly the best.  It doesn't matter now as I have to get out of this trade now with the least possible damage.  Europe and Asia were generally lower.  We'll see if we get some kind of bounce in the US trading on Wednesday.

The Dow bounced around today and finished with a gain of a little more than a point on very light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is grinding higher.  We opened to the upside and then gave it all back and then some.  Rallied good again and lost it all into the close.  I had an open order in for the weekly SPY calls this morning and it was filled on the first drop of the session.  The entry was not good.  When I realized that the drop was going to be more than I expected it was too late.  This is a very risky trade that lasts until the close on Thursday.  It is showing a loss and I will be lucky to get out with any type of gain.  That said, my work does show that there will be upside this week.  However it may be too late to save this trade.  GE lost a couple cents and the volume remains very light.  Gold lost a buck or so on the futures despite a lower US dollar.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  Good breadth today with no gain and that could be a problem.  The lack of volume isn't helping matters for the bulls either.  Volatility has returned for todays session.  I'm in the next trade now and it really isn't the best set of circumstances.  The technical indicators remain mid-range and the basically sideways market price action continues.  I don't expect a major decline to start here.  If my entry would have been decent then this trade would be in a better position for success.  But we will have to go from here and work with what we've got.  Not a lot of economic data due with retail sales the most important for the week in my view.  However that will be released on Friday and the markets will be closed.  I'd like to hold this trade until Thursday but we will have to simply see what happens.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower in last nights trade.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow. 

Plenty of pre-market drama but when it was all said and done it was a day of market drift.  The Dow fell 6 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is barely moving higher.  We had the US bombing Syria overnight and then a weaker than expected jobs report.  However the expected volatility never happened as we traded in a small range all day.  We now have geo-political risk to contend with along with the usual market risks.  So it definitely makes for even tougher trading as headline risk has returned.  The technical indicators are not even moving as they remain mid-range.  I did place another order for the SPY April calls but it wasn't filled.  I suppose I'll try again on Monday depending on how things look over the weekend.  GE was up a few cents on very light volume.  Gold rallied early on but then gave it all back and then some.  The futures finished up 3 bucks but were much higher than that.  The US dollar rose.  The XAU and GDX came off their highs for slight losses.  Volume was average.  Hard to figure exactly what was going on there.  Mentally I'm feeling tired.  The market is trending sideways for now and that isn't a good sign for trading options.  The light volume also is a factor.  It implies a lack of interest as we are now in an aimless drift.  2 weeks to go in the April option cycle and I would like to try something.  But we have a lot of premium left in option prices for the April cycle.  As the days go by more time and volatility premium gets sucked out of the options and we have no real volatility at the moment.  The one day reversal lower that we had this week juiced up the volatility premium and now that is being frittered away with each passing day.  So the game gets tougher to put something profitable together.  I'm still in the bullish camp but that could change in a hurry with headline risk.  The employment report did not have its usual effect on the market today as traders simply pulled back on doing anything after last night.  Perhaps I'll have to skip the April option cycle but that remains to be seen.  I'll check all the charts in the next 2 days and try to come up with a definite plan for next week.  It will be a short week due to a holiday on Friday.  Plenty to think about.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

The Dow managed a 14 point gain today on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive though and that should turn the summation index back up.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow and that is a plus.  I did place an order for the SPY April calls but it wasn't filled.  I might try this again tomorrow but we'll have to wait and see.  The RUT held up well today and if we can get leadership there, the market should be OK.  All eyes will be on the employment report but as always the markets reaction to the numbers is the key.  I still believe that we're going to go higher before the April expiration but there really isn't a clear signal technically.  GE was off a few cents on light volume.  Gold rose $5 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit higher as well.  The XAU and GDX were barely changed on pretty light volume.  It's been quiet lately for gold and the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling tired.  Trying to put a trade on here has kept me busy.  I almost wanted to chase things again today when we were up a point on the SPY but I didn't.  There is still a lot of time premium left in the April options.  Plus some extra volatility premium in there after yesterday.  So the entry timing has got to be spot on for any trade to have a chance.  Those premiums will get sucked out rather quickly as the next couple of weeks go by.  We're still only mid-range on the short term indicators.  However todays very positive advance/declines tells me we are probably headed higher.  That's my guess at the moment.  I'll wait and see how the market opens tomorrow and decide what to do from there.  Perhaps I'll get a chance for the April calls.  We'll see.  Asia was lower and Europe generally higher last night.  We'll finish out the week tomorrow.

It was a one day reversal to the downside as the Dow had an upside gap open and then closed lower for the day.  The most watched index fell 41 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  This will halt the rise in the summation index but I don't think it's turned lower yet.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow and that is a warning sign.  I think that if the RUT breaks and closes below 1340 that the tone and the trend will turn negative.  The Dow could not hold an almost 200 point gain from early in the session.  I have no explanation but the excuse is the Fed minutes release.  I did cancel my open order for the SPY April calls but I really almost chased the rally today.  I wanted to simply put in another order because I thought that this was the rise that will take us to new all time highs by expiration.  But I didn't and now I have to reevaluate whether my positive hypothesis for prices is valid.  GE was off a nickel but was much higher during the session.  Volume was light.  Gold was flat on the day and came off of its lows.  The US dollar was flat as well but came off of its highs.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on OK volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So now we have to decide if today was a one day wonder or the start of something real to the downside.  The volume was legitimate so it really makes me wonder.  Not to mention that the small stocks are leading the way lower and that is bearish.  The short term technical indicators remain mid-range even with todays price action for the S&P.  So we still are in a zone where it could go either way.  If we get some good downside follow through tomorrow, then I think the market will be in trouble.  As I stated earlier keep an eye on RUT.  It led the way up and now has been moving sideways for 4 months.  If it breaks down I believe the overall market will follow.  But it hasn't happened yet.  I'd still like to think that we're going to head higher.  April is usually a seasonally strong month.  So we'll see.  I'll have to look at the charts tonight and decide whether I'm going to try the SPY April calls again.  Plus we have the employment report out on Friday and now that certainly will be a market mover.  So there is a lot to think about tonight.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed in last nights trade.  We'll see how the foreign markets react tonight to todays turnaround in the US.  

It seems like a drift here as the Dow gained 39 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were even.  The summation index continues to the upside.  I do have an open order in for the SPY April calls but at this rate it won't get filled.  Unknown exactly which way we'll go here but I am still leaning towards a bullish resolution.  However I do not want to chase anything here.  If we get some downside ahead of Friday, I'll try the calls.  If not I'll have to wait for the next signal.  With 2 1/2 weeks to go in the April option cycle, there is still time for a trade.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  The gold futures rose $4 and the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU was up a buck, while GDX added 1/4.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P here are about mid-range.  Hence the opportunity for the trend to go either way.  We also sometimes just get a sideways market in the month of April and that could be the case as well.  The economic data out so far this week has been in line with estimates.  We'll get the Fed minutes tomorrow and perhaps that will get things going.  But we also could simply be on hold until Fridays jobs report.  Once again I don't want to press or chase things here but I do have the feeling that we are going to take a run at new all time highs.  The overall market is still a bit weaker than the Dow at the moment and that needs to change if we're going to go higher.  Asia was mixed and Europe positive in overnight trade.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We begin the week and the month of April a bit lower as the Dow fell 13 points on average volume.  the advance/declines were negative.  It could have been worse as we were off almost 150 during the session.  This Monday looks a lot like last Monday.  The summation index is still moving up.  No clear signal here but I did place an open order for the SPY April calls and I'm leaving it in overnight.  I would like to be long before the employment report due Friday.  However there is a chance that today was the time to purchase the calls.  The ideal scenario from here in my mind would be a drift lower all week into the close on Thursday.  The market rarely cooperates.  GE was up a few cents on average volume.  Gold rose a few bucks on the futures and the US dollar was a bit higher as well.  The XAU rose 1 1/2, while GDX gained 1/3.  Volume was nothing special.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Somewhat of a change from the recent behavior as the Dow had better relative performance.  The small stocks under performed today and that is something to keep an eye on.  I'm leaving in the open option order for the calls overnight but if we open down hard again, I'll cancel it.  As I said before, drifting lower for the rest of this week would be the preferred market motion to set up this trade.  So if we can stay in a holding pattern until Friday, there might be a chance for this trade.  If not we'll just have to remain patient and see how things play out.  That's all we can do for now.  Asia was up and Europe down in last nights trade.  We keep an eye on things overnight.

A down day to close out the quarter as the Dow fell 65 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still moving up.  Positive advance/declines and better relative performance of the small stocks says that the market can go higher.  We might need to take a little breather first.  That's my hope at least because it would then provide the opportunity to purchase the SPY April calls.  One caveat here is that the volume has been pretty weak and you would really like to see that pick up moving higher.  No clear signal one way or the other just yet but the short term technical indicators for the S&P appear to be starting to roll over.  GE lost a few cents but the volume was very heavy.  The gold futures gained a few bucks as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  The month of April has arrived and there are still 3 weeks to go in that option cycle.  The ideal scenario here for me would perhaps be a run down to the 50 day moving average again for the S&P in the near term.  That would set up another chance to purchase some regular index calls.  I do not think that I'll be trying the weekly calls again in the April option cycle.  But the market will go where it wants.  We could also see some beginning of the month money flows and that would limit the near term downside.  The market did drop in the final half hour today but that could have been quarterly related.  Plenty of economic data due out next week topped off by the employment report on Friday.  So there will be a lot to take in as the week goes on.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to see exactly what I can come up with for next week.  For now I'm still a believer in higher prices going forward.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.  

A drift higher today as the Dow gained 69 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  It appears that I did leave some money on the table by closing out the SPY call trade yesterday but I did not want to take the added risk.  There's still room to move up on the short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 but the volume here on the rise has been light.  The small stocks didn't outperform today for a change.  I'm still a believer of buying on a pullback for the April option cycle, if we get one.  GE gained 20 cents and the volume was better than what we've seen lately.  We're still below the 200 day moving average here.  Gold dropped $10 on the futures as the US dollar had a good day.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on very light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll finish out the month tomorrow.  If the S&P continues to rise, we'll get a bullish engulfing pattern on the weekly candlestick chart.  This would be a positive for the bulls.  It would also make buying any weakness next week more likely to work.  But it hasn't happened yet.  As it stands this week was a good one if you are positive on stocks.  Perhaps we can make a run at new all time highs next week.  That's just a guess as we will have to wait and see what the market has to say.  For now, waiting for the next signal is the plan.  There's still plenty of time in the April option cycle.  Asia was lower and Europe generally higher again overnight.  We'll close out the week and month tomorrow. 

A mixed bag today as the Dow lost 42 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow with the small stocks leading the way.  The summation index is now moving up.  All signs point to higher prices coming for stocks.  Weakness can be bought in my opinion and I'll be looking for some SPY April calls.  I did sell the SPY weekly call options that I purchased yesterday.  With only 2 days to go for these calls, I took the profit that I had.  It was 150% but I could have done a little better if I had just sold them at the right point yesterday.  Once again I 've got to emphasize the capital appreciation of option trading vs. trading stocks.  Owning stocks for the long haul is a solid choice.  But when it coming to trading, options should be the vehicle of choice.  You tie up less money for quicker gains with options than by trading stocks.  Today was mostly a sideways affair, so I'll consider myself lucky to get out when I did.  GE was up a few cents and the volume a bit lighter.  Gold was off $3 on the futures and the US dollar gained a bit of ground.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on very light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, could have slept better.  I gave the SPY weekly options a try and it worked out this time.  But I certainly don't think that this is a strategy that I'll use too often.  Things won't always line up like they just did.  But it will be something to consider in the future.  We got a bounce off the short term oversold technical indicators for the S&P.  Those indicators are now mid-range.  I do think that we're going to go higher from here but there isn't a solid signal right now.  The S&P 500 did manage to hold and bounce off of its 50 day moving average.  The better support is at 2300 but the way things have turned around it appears that we're not headed down there.  I could be wrong but there is no indication to me that's about to occur.  There's still plenty of time in the April option cycle for another trade to line up.  That's what I'll be looking for now.  Asia was mixed and Europe generally higher overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.   

Looking for higher prices and we got them today as the Dow rallied 150 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index back up.  I tried to get some SPY April calls but was not filled.  I did however place an order for the SPY weekly call that expires on Friday.  I did this due to the short term nature of the signal that was in place.  That order was filled but I could have done a better job on the entry.  That trade is showing a nice profit for now but it has come well off of its highs for the day.  Last night the McClellan oscillator gave the signal for a significant move in the next 2 sessions.  We got that move today.  I decided to hold on to this trade until tomorrow, since that was the day that my work said would be positive.  Perhaps that was a mistake.  GE was up over 1/8 and the volume was about average.  Gold lost some steam as the overall stock market moved higher and the futures dropped $5.  The US dollar was higher today.  The XAU lost 1 7/8, while GDX shed almost 2/3.  Volume was good.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Trying a different tack, trading a weekly option.  So far it has worked out OK but anything can happen.  It is a trade that should be exited tomorrow and probably even today.  Once again the short term nature of the position increases the risk rather dramatically.  But I did not like the way the premiums on the regular April options were acting and the signal was in place.  I still like the idea of the SPY April calls but will have to wait for another entry point if we get one.  The turning around of the summation  index is a plus for the bulls.  The small stocks continue to act OK but we could actually be developing a trading channel.  Time will tell on that.  So I'll be keeping an eye on things overnight and take it from there.  We've got the end of the month coming up on Friday as well.  Europe and Asia were both higher overnight.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow. 

Quite a start to the week as the Dow fell 45 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  We opened the day off 175 points on the failure of the health care bill and worked our way back.  The summation index is still trying to turn around.  I did place an order to get the SPY April calls but it wasn't filled.  I'm leaving it open overnight.  We should see some kind of rally from here.  The technical work that I do points to some gains by Wednesday at the latest.  Todays price action also points to higher near term prices.  The small stocks continue to act well here and we probably won't see any wholesale decline as long as that is the case.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume was average.  Gold rallied early but came off of its highs.  The precious metal futures rose $7.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU added 1 1/3, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired with the early morning gyrations.  The issue that we're having here is that with so much time left in the April option cycle, the huge moves in the price of the indexes is not being reflected in the option premiums.  What I mean is that despite a daily range today of over 2 points in the SPY, the option premiums barely moved.  The loss of time premium seemed to be more of an effect than the price movement in the underlying.  But this is what we deal with when trading the index options.  I still believe that there is a trade to be made here.  I just don't know if it will happen at the price that I'm willing to pay.  It also is a trade that I don't think has a lot of legs.  What I'm saying is that it will be short term in nature if the order gets filled.  Hasn't happened yet.  The VIX came well off of its highs today as well, which tells me that the decline has probably ended for now.  So we'll see.  I do see that higher prices should arrive on Wednesday at the latest.  Europe and Asia were both lower overnight.  We'll watch what happens tonight and be back at it in the morning. 

Volatility returns as the market continues to be held hostage by a health care bill of all things.  We bounced around  and finished with a loss of 59 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index is still trying to turn around.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow and the small stocks continue to hold up well.  We're short term oversold and I'm leaning towards buying weakness if we get any on Monday morning.  I do not think that we are on the verge of a major pullback even if the vote on this bill isn't approved as the market wants.  Headline risk is a tough trading environment.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  Gold was flat on the futures as was the US dollar.  It's as if we're in suspended animation until this health care thing ends.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The light volume tells the story as traders are waiting to see how this vote on health care goes.  I can make a case for purchasing the SPY April calls on Monday, unless we see a rally from the start.  Technically this trade would make sense but when the market is fixated on the headlines, you never know what is going to come next.  It would be a plus to have the summation index turn around but that hasn't happened yet.  Plenty of time in the April option cycle so there is no need to be in a hurry.  I'm going to have to look over the charts this weekend and determine a course of action.  I do think it will be a plus to get this health care thing out of the way for now.  Even if it doesn't pass.  So plenty to ponder over the next couple of days and I'll have to be ready at the open on Monday.  Now I have just seen that this bill has been shelved and there won't be a vote.  So the indecision lingers.  Once again I'll have to revamp my trading plans for next week.  I suppose that I'll have to keep an eye on the news over the weekend closer than usual.  This isn't the kind of trading environment that I prefer but it is what it is.  Asia was higher and Europe slightly lower last night.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.  

Held hostage by Washington as the Dow fell 4 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trying to turn around again.  The market is fixated on the health care bill as if it was the only thing in the world that matters.  We are once again in an environment of headline risk.  The advance/declines were pretty good today, so perhaps the market will be able to weather the storm.  It now appears that the vote on this bill has been postponed and that will be seen as a defeat for the current administration.  We'll have to see how the futures react to this news overnight.  I'm still in the camp of buying some SPY April calls.  GE was up about a dime with volume average for lately.  Gold was off $4 on the futures and the US dollar was just up slightly.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on OK volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We're now at the mercy of what happens overnight and I can only guess at what the reaction will be.  All pundits called for a decline if there was any delay for this legislation.  So we'll see what happens.  The S&P 500 is still oversold on the short term technical indicators.  I'd like to see a run down to the 2300 level but that may be wishful thinking.  If we do get a sell off tomorrow, there is usually follow through on Monday morning.  That would be the time to purchase some calls if all goes to plan.  But the market rarely cooperates and I may be able to make a case for purchase tomorrow.  Or who knows?  Maybe we'll rally tomorrow.  Sticking with the technicals, the summation index is still heading lower and we're oversold.  We did see a short bounce this week after Tuesdays decline but it didn't amount to much.  So perhaps we'll go lower before we turn this thing back around.  I don't exactly have a clear signal but I do have a target of 2300 on the downside.  We'll just have to wait and see.  Plenty of time in the April option cycle.  Europe and Asia were higher last night but not by much.  We'll finish up the trading week tomorrow.

A mixed bag today after yesterdays drop as the Dow shed 6 points on average volume.  The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ were positive.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index continues lower.  I can make a case for a bounce here but for now I'm going to wait to purchase the SPY April calls.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P are in the oversold zone.  However I do think that after yesterdays debacle, lower prices will be seen in the coming days. Ideally we'd get to the 2300 level on the S&P 500 but the market rarely cooperates with plans.  So we'll keep an eye on things and see what develops.  GE was up 1/8 on average volume.  Gold was up a couple bucks, while the US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU had a slight fractional gain and GDX was flat.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The small stocks performed better today and that's a positive.  The oversold nature of things here is also in the bulls corner.  There's also a potential positive divergence on the McClellan oscillator to watch.  However there's some background headline noise to deal with.  A terrorist attack in London combined with a vote on Trumps health care proposal.  The attack has already been digested by the market in my opinion.  But we'll have to see what happens tomorrow.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight.  2 days left in the week but it doesn't appear that a decent opportunity will present itself.  On to Thursday.

It looks like things have changed in a hurry as the Dow got clobbered today.  The most watched index fell 237 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were about 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index tried to turn around but is now heading back lower.  Trend lines have now been violated to the downside.  We are not yet completely short term oversold, so there should be some more price erosion to come.  The 50 day moving average for the S&P 500 is around 2325 but better support is at 2300.  I'll look to those levels to try the SPY April calls.  I still think that will be my next trade attempt unless this turns into an all out rout.  GE shed 1/3 and volume was less than average.  Gold found a bid on a lower US dollar.  The yellow metal gained $10.  The XAU rose 1 1/8, while GDX added 1/3.  Volume was good.  I still think that the fundamental backdrop for gold is negative.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Today was certainly a surprise to me but the market is due for a rest.  Some may say overdue.  The McClellan oscillator made it back through the zero line but has been turned away.  What I will try to do is wait for the short term technical indicators on the S&P to get completely oversold and then purchase the April calls.  It won't be easy.  On the plus side there will be plenty of time for the trade to work itself out.  If we simply continue lower here, perhaps on weakness Thursday I can try to take a position.  But it is tough to try and pick a bottom.  The VIX is already at the top of its recent range but the indicators aren't overbought yet.  So there are plenty of crosscurrents along with questions after todays market action.  What I suppose I'm trying to point out is that the game now has changed.  I'm going to try and not be in too big of a hurry to do something.  At least that's the thought for now.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Slightly lower to begin the week as the Dow fell 8 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still trying to turn around here.  No clear technical signal one way or the other for the S&P 500 on the short term.  The Bollinger bands are converging though, which implies some type of big move is coming.  Which way is always the question.  The VIX remains low.  The QQQ and COMPQ remain very overbought and have been for quite some time.  This condition cannot last forever.  I'd like to purchase some SPY April calls at some point though.  GE was off 1/8 on light volume.  Gold rose four bucks and the US dollar was barely higher.  The XAU added a point and GDX rose almost 1/4.  Volume was pretty light.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  At this point we're waiting for the next catalyst to move stocks.  Not a lot of economic data due this week.  So we wait.  No clear buy or sell signal for the S&P at the moment.  So we'll have to remain patient for now.  We have plenty of time n the April option cycle for some kind of trade to develop.  Ideally we would head lower to set up a call trade but the market rarely delivers what you want.  Asia was mixed and Europe slightly lower in overnight trade.  We'll be keeping an eye on things tonight.

The price movement was muted for the option expiration today as the Dow fell 20 points on expiration heavy volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still trying to turn around.  We were up and down today but without a lot of volatility.  I'm not sure exactly where we are going from here.  A case can be made for both directions.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are now mid-range.  The medium term picture remains overbought.  There isn't a clear signal for a set up right now.  There's plenty of time in the April option cycle and we will wait for a valid opportunity if one presents itself.  GE was up 1/8 and the volume was pretty good.  Gold was slightly higher as was the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses again on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Where we go from here is the question and at the moment I don't have an answer.  Patience is required in the game and now is one of those times.  I'll try and listen to what the market is saying.  I'm still leaning towards the bullish side here and am looking for new all time highs.  I could be wrong.  Once again, there is no rush here to put on a position.  The option premiums are high since we just rolled into the next cycle.  I'll continue to check the charts over the weekend to try and clarify what I should be doing here.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  However the price closes were slight once again.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Some digestion of the gains made yesterday as the Dow lost 15 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still attempting to turn back up here.  Not a whole lot to report on todays market action.  We spent much of the day in negative territory.  We've got the expiration tomorrow to wrap up the week.  Not any surprises in the economic data or from the Fed so we are just moving along sideways here in the bigger picture.  I don't have any trades in mind at the moment.  I am leaning towards the bullish side though.  GE was pretty much flat and the volume was light.  Gold finished the session up over $5 on the futures as the US dollar continued its drop.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  No rush at the moment for the next trade as we wind down expiration week.  Aprils option cycle has an extra week and that will be reflected in higher premiums.  My job here is to simply wait for the next decent signal and take it from there.  At the moment I'm leaning towards new all time highs for the Dow and the S&P in the near future.  We did work off the short term overbought condition in the indices but we never did reach fully oversold.  We did however each some very low levels in the McClellan oscillator but without the significant decline expected.  I'm not sure what that means but momentum lows were attained at least.  All we can do it continue to monitor the situation and be patient.  That's my best guess right now.  Both Europe and Asia were higher in last nights trade.  We'll close out expiration week tomorrow.

Expecting a rally today and we got it as the Dow rose 112 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 6 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still heading lower but appears to be in the process of turning around.  The Fed raised rates as expected and the market took off.  We did finish off of the highs for the session though.  I did sell the SPY March calls that I purchased yesterday but probably could have held on for more gain.  But with only 2 days left in this option cycle, I got out.  The gain was 150% but it could have been a bit better.  Not sure what the next trade will be.  GE was up almost 1/4 and the volume was a bit light.  I don't see any trades here in the near term.  Gold was up over $15 on the futures as the US dollar fell pretty good despite the rate hike.  Evidently it was already baked into prices.  It was not the reaction that I expected but I suppose traders were happy that there still may only be 2 more rate hikes this year.  It's all really just a guessing game when it comes to the Fed.  The XAU jumped 5 3/4, while GDX added 1 2/3.  Volume was heavy.  We'll see if this has legs or was just a one day wonder.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So that was a trade that worked and I expected it to.  That is why you put in the time and effort every day and do the work.  It is also why trading options can be a pretty lucrative game as opposed to the time involved trading stocks for similar capital appreciation.  But it is riskier and certainly isn't an easy game.  The technical expectations will come through for you more than not.  That trade lined up in plenty of time before it happened.  It isn't always that easy but the numbers don't lie.  It's possible that we could see new all time highs before Fridays close but we could stall here just a bit as well.  I didn't get greedy but maybe I should have.  However there are no perfect trades.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have now turned back up.  A high volume breakout above 2400 would be the most bullish scenario.  But if and when that happens is the question.  I'll be looking out to the April option cycle now and there is an extra week for that time frame.  Asia was generally mixed and Europe slightly higher.  We'll see how they react to the Feds decision tonight.

Selling ahead of the Fed as the Dow fell 44 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  Not a lot of volume for expiration week as the market awaits the Feds latest move.  All signs point to an increase in the Fed funds rate.  I did place an open order for some SPY March calls and it was filled.  Todays decline was what I consider a gift, as it allowed me to take the position that I have been waiting for.  I do believe that we'll be heading higher tomorrow.  This isn't a trade that I expect to hold too long and will most likely be out of tomorrow unless I get greedy.  GE was off 1/3 on light volume.  Gold was down $5 as the US dollar finished higher.  The XAU lost 2 1/3, while GDX dropped 2/3.  Volume was good to the downside.  If the Fed does raise rates tomorrow you would expect some more decline in gold and some more strength in the US dollar.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  In the trade I've been waiting for now and I'm feeling pretty confident about it.  It is showing a slight gain at the moment.  My work has been pointing to tomorrow to be positive.  It is a matter of how much and how quick.  That doesn't mean we can't go lower tomorrow but the odds favor higher prices.  You can never be 100% sure of anything in this game but I've put in the work and we'll see what happens.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P have rolled back over again.  Despite that, I still think that this trade will have a positive outcome.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight but once again the moves were slight.  We'll see how the market reacts to the Fed decision tomorrow.  

It was a day of hanging around as the Dow fell 21 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues lower.  The small stocks had good relative strength.  I did place an open order for the SPY March calls but it wasn't filled.  I'm still a believer in this short term trade.  I will try again tomorrow if we get some weakness.  The market is simply waiting on the Fed here and I do expect some kind of move higher on Wednesday.  The light volume is not a concern as things should get going by the middle of the week.  No doubt a very risky endeavor, with only 4 days to go in the March option cycle.  GE was down 3/8 and pretty much lost what it gained on Friday.  Volume was average.  The gold futures were up a couple bucks and The US dollar was bit higher as well.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on average volume.  The fundamentals for gold remain negative in my opinion.  Mentally I'm a bit sluggish as I am not feeling 100%.  This is a time that I have to be on top of my game, with a short term trade in the works.  I will try and get some extra rest tonight.  If the market simply continues with a light volume rise here, I'll have to pass on this trade.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 aren't completely oversold but they are trying to turn around.  I believe that they will but as usual anything could happen.  I expect another rise in rates on Wednesday but the opposite market reaction than expected due to the technicals.  I could be wrong.  For now I'll continue to monitor things and hopefully get a chance to get long tomorrow.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Looking for a bounce and we got one today as the Dow rose 44 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving lower.  We had a gap at the open, came all the way back to unchanged and then churned our way higher into the close.  It wasn't a great bounce but it has started to alleviate the short term oversold condition.  I'm still a believer in the SPY March calls next week and plan to purchase them on any weakness Monday or Tuesday.  I think we will rally after the Fed, regardless of an interest rate hike.  I could be wrong.  But the technical work right now suggests an up day on Wednesday.  GE was up almost 2/3 on heavy volume.  There was some noise about an activist investor here.  Gold was flat on the session and the US dollar dropped despite a stronger employment report.  Not sure what was going on there but it appears to be a sell the news event.  The XAU rose 2 and GDX added 5/8 on good volume.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  Only 5 days left in the March option cycle so the risk will be high in an attempt to trade next week.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are trying to turn back up here.  However they haven't gotten completely oversold yet.  The Bollinger bands are beginning to converge and that will put some restriction on just how far prices can go in the near term.  Today opened with every reason to be a solid upside session and the performance certainly did not live up to that expectation.  So you have to take notice of the change in the market mood.  I do think that a short term S&P call trade can be successful next week but the entry point will have to be pretty solid.  I will have to go over all the charts and everything in my mind this weekend to try and come up with a plan that will work.  There is also the possibility that this trade is too late but todays market action says that we may stall ahead of the Fed and that will be the opportunity to get some calls.  Sounds good in theory but we will have to see what the market has to say.  So I'll do the work over the weekend and we'll see what happens.  Europe and Asia were higher last night with the NIKK leading the way.  The moves in Europe were rather muted once again.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

The Dow added 2 points today on average volume but we did come well off of the lows for the session.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  The McClellan oscillator is now even more oversold than yesterday.  A bounce is now overdue just as when we were overbought a decline was overdue.  Today had the feel as if at least a short term bottom has been put in.  The short term oversold nature of the market right now along with the potential hammer on the S&P daily candlestick chart tells me that we should see some upside soon.  I will be looking to purchase some SPY March calls tomorrow if we see some selling after the employment report.  That is the plan.  GE was off 1/8 on lighter volume.  Gold was off $8 on the futures and the US dollar was bit lower.  The XAU and GDX were both fractionally lower again on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Once again I must remark how much the McClellan oscillator and summation index have gone down with the representative price move lower in the major averages.  Normally what we have seen in the oscillator and summation index would have led to a precipitous decline in the averages.  That hasn't been the case here as we are only off around 2% from the recent highs.  Hopefully tomorrow we'll see some selling and the opportunity for the SPY March calls will present itself.  It will be a different story if we take off to the upside on the open.  That will be a harder trade to make.  So we'll see.  The set up is there in my opinion and it is time to act on it.  I feel confident that we will see upside after the Fed on Wednesday as the technical work points to an upside day there.  Asia was mixed with Europe generally higher overnight.  We'll see how the market reacts to the jobs report tomorrow.   

The Dow fell 69 points today on better volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading down.  Buying pressure has now turned into selling pressure, although the point moves so far haven't been as extreme.  The McClellan oscillator is now in a very negative reading that usually produces at least a bounce.  I do not think that the rally has ended and I do not believe that a huge decline is in the works.  The small stocks have held up rather well and that tells me that the decline should be muted.  I'm looking at the SPY March calls but with the employment number looming I may have to wait until next week.  The problem is that time in the March option cycle is running out.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was average.  Gold fell $8 on the futures while the US dollar was higher again.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses again on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It is looking more and more as if the 300+ point move last week was a blow off top.  We are somewhat oversold here but that doesn't mean that we can't move lower.  I'm looking for some strength in the middle of next week but we have to get there first.  It would also probably be wise not to take a position ahead of the jobs report.  Wait to see how the market reacts to the numbers would be the prudent course of action.  But the market usually doesn't wait for you either.  I'm going to remain on the sidelines for now.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight but the moves in Europe were rather small.  We'll keep an eye on the trading tonight.   

Continuing lower for a change as the Dow fell 29 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  The market is perhaps rolling over here but I do not expect any huge decline.  I can make a case for getting some SPY March calls but next week would be the ideal time.  With the technical indicators on the short term rolling over for the major averages, the trend is lower for now.  I'm not so sure about trying the SPY puts here as we have already fallen off of the recent high.  We will have to see how things play out ahead of Fridays employment report.  GE was off another 1/8 and volume picked up a bit.  Gold fell $10 on the futures.  The US dollar was just a bit higher.  Not a good seasonal time for gold.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on lighter volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Just a slight drop so far for the major averages.  With the exception of RUT, we are still off from the 50 day moving averages of most indices.  RUT led us up so we'll have to keep an eye on if it's going to lead the way down.  March in general is favorable for stocks.  I therefore do not expect any kind of sustained decline here.  Perhaps staying patient and waiting to obtain some calls ahead of the Fed is the best course of action at this stage.  But we will have to see how the next couple of days play out.  The jobs report could be an event worth trading.  Some global markets are on the verge of breaking out.  This could also be a positive sign for the US market going forward.  However right now we'll concern ourselves with the March option trading.  Asia was generally higher and Europe lower in overnight trade but the moves were small.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A downer for a change to begin the trading week as the Dow fell 51 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving lower.  We'll take our cues from that.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages have rolled over.  I'm not sure if we'll get a chance for the SPY March puts as it already appears to be too late.  The only hope for that trade is a light volume run up in the next couple of sessions.  If that doesn't happen, we'll look for the SPY March calls ahead of the Fed next week.  We could just be in a sideways consolidation for a while.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was light.  No trades in mind here for now.  Gold was little changed on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The gold shares fell though.  The XAU shed 2 1/4, while GDX dropped 1/2.  Volume was a little less than normal.  No love for the gold shares here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Only nine days to go in the March option cycle.  The timing of the next trade will have to be right as there will be no room for error.  However with no risk comes no reward.  I do anticipate doing something before the March option cycle ends.  For now I'm simply waiting for a near term set up.  If we continue lower, I'll try the SPY calls.  If we go higher, I'll look for the puts as long as the summation index is heading down.  So we'll see.  Plus we have the jobs report on Friday to deal with.  So it is time to pay attention and we'll see how it goes.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on this evenings trade.

The Dow spent most of the session in negative territory but did manage to finish the day with a gain of 2 points on what now passes for light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is now moving lower.  We're still overbought on the short term technical indicators for the major averages, so there is some room to go lower.  Yellen spoke today but it didn't have much effect on the market.  There will be a better chance of some market movement when we get the Fed meeting over on the 15th.  I'm not sure what will happen here in the near term but I will try and figure it out over the weekend.  Perhaps if we are higher early next week, I could try the SPY March puts.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was light.  The short term technicals here appear to be rolling over.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures as the US dollar took a hit.  The XAU was up 1 1/8, while GDX added 1/4.  Volume was good.  If rates do rise as Yellen promises it will not be positive for gold.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, busy day.  I'm taking a look at things here and am still surprised at the positive run we've had.  Wednesday does look like a blow off top to me but I could be wrong.  Perhaps we are about to simply enter another sideways period before heading higher once again.  I will need to go over all the charts this weekend to try and come up with something.  With 2 weeks to go in the March option cycle I'm sure there will be opportunity somewhere.  We've got the employment report next week as the main economic number to watch but that isn't until Friday.  Right now I think the ideal scenario would be a light volume levitation on Monday and Tuesday in order to purchase some puts.  But I'll try and get things figured out over the weekend.  Asia was lower and Europe mixed overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

Downside today as the Dow fell 112 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 negative.  This should move the summation index lower.  Way overdue for some type of pullback and today could be the start.  Yesterday now looks more and more like a blow off top.  I'll be looking for an entry point for the SPY March puts.  A light volume return to the 2400 level on the S&P 500 would be the ideal scenario.  The short term technical indicators are still overbought, so there is room to go lower.  GE was flat on the day and the volume was light.  Gold took a hit today as the futures lost $15.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU lost 4 and GDX shed a point on good volume.  March is historically the worst month for the yellow metal and it is living up to that so far.  The fear of higher interest rates is taking over.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll now have to see if things get interesting as we could have some doji stars on the weekly candlestick charts of some for the major stock indices.  Depends on how we close tomorrow.  The VIX is also not in sync with the changes in prices lately.  For example today the VIX was lower along with stock prices.  They usually move in the opposite direction.  It's something to keep an eye on although I don't exactly know what it means, if anything.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow as well and we haven't seen that in a while.  So perhaps we're in for a pause in the festivities but one day doesn't make a trend.  March in general is a good month for stocks so maybe some sideways activity is what we'll see.  Time will tell on that.  I suppose that I'll let tomorrow pass and go from there.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower in last night s trade but the moves were muted.  The exception was a decent rise in NIKK.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

A blast off higher today as the Dow roared ahead by 303 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index should be moving back up.  Trump sounded like a president but didn't really say anything.  It didn't matter.  The market took off like a rocket.  This is a freight train running loose that you don't want to step in front of.  Extremely overbought and moving in a straight line.  This will not end well but who knows where the end is?  Today squeezed all the rest of the shorts ahead of Trumps address to congress.  I'm not sure where we go from here but I'll continue to look at the SPY March puts.  GE was up 3/8 on good volume.  Gold was off a few bucks on the futures as the US dollar rallied.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on average volume.  I still think that the fundamentals for gold are negative.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We just rose over 1000 points in a month.  This is amazing in itself.  It has the feel of a blow off top but we'll only know that in hindsight.  The market can stay overbought longer than you can stay solvent, or so I've heard.  I'm still waiting for a negative divergence that may never occur at this rate.  It is virtually impossible for me to buy calls here because the technical indicators remain out of whack.  So I'll simply have to wait until I see something worth making a trade on.  Still plenty of time in the March option cycle.  The VIX has room to move down on the short term indicators so even some more upside from here isn't out of the question.  We'll see.  Europe and Asia were both higher in yesterdays trade.  I'm not sure what we'll see tomorrow but these are very interesting times. 

Well we couldn't make it to thirteen days in a row as the Dow fell 25 points on good volume to close out the month.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  This should turn the summation index lower.  The overall market was weaker then the Dow.  The market will move tomorrow off of what Trump says tonight.  Event driven markets are sometimes hard to figure.  That would be the case right now.  We are still overbought regardless.  The VIX has risen here and we are overdue for some decline or a pause sideways at the least.  I'm still waiting for the negative divergence at this point.  GE was off 1/8 and volume picked up.  Gold continued to fall as the futures lost 10 bucks.  The US dollar was flat once again but the daily candlestick chart looks like it has 3 bullish hammers.  The XAU and GDX finished little changed on good volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll get the beginning of March tomorrow and there could be some positive money flows.  However the overriding theme of the day will be Trumps plans to Congress and the markets reaction to them.  We are long overdue for a pullback, so keep that in mind.  I'm staying on the sidelines for now but do anticipate some kind of SPY trade in the March option cycle.  Europe and Asia were mostly higher last night.  We'll get Trumps speech out of the way and see what happens tomorrow. 

Let's make it a dozen as the Dow rose for the twelfth day in a row.  It gained 15 points on about average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still moving up.  The extreme overbought condition remains.  I'm having trouble remembering anything like this in recent history.  I won't try and step in front of this but I do still like the SPY March puts at some point.  I'll continue to wait for some kind of negative divergence.  We've got a Trump speech tomorrow night and that should get things moving one way or the other.  The employment report is delayed a week for some reason so we won't have that to trade off of.  GE was down 1/4 on light volume.  The short term indicators are starting to roll over here.  Gold reversed during the session and the futures fell $6.  The dollar was flat.  The gold shares had one day reversals to the down side.  The XAU lost 4 1/8, while GDX shed 1 1/3.  Volume was heavy.  Perhaps gold knows something that we don't.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Still trying to remain patient here as we hit new all time highs every day.  No overhead resistance either.  I really don't know how long that this can last but it's usually much longer than you think.  I do think that longer term we are in the last leg up for this lengthy bull market of 8 years.  How far the leg goes is the question.  or I could be wrong and we have much higher to go but I really don't think so.  Straight lines up never end well.  But there is no telling how long that line can be.  We'll get the end of the month tomorrow and another look at GDP.  Asia was lower and Europe higher overnight.  We'll finish up the February trading tomorrow. 

The Dow winning streak remains alive but barely.  We opened with a gap lower and thanks to a final hour rally the most watched index managed a gain of 11 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were about even.  The summation index is still trending higher but not with any conviction.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow though.  We still remain overbought but that hasn't mattered for weeks.  I'm still in the camp that is calling for some type of pause here.  There's no overhead resistance but when you just go straight up in a line it never ends well.  I'm still looking at the SPY March puts.  GE was up over 1/8 and is overbought on some of the short term technical indicators.  Gold rose $7 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit higher as well.  The XAU shed a point, while GDX lost 1/4.  Volume was light.  Getting to oversold for the gold shares but not there yet.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Just how high will we go here is the question and I certainly don't have the answer.  It has been quite the rally since the election and we are in the leg up that began at the beginning of February.  I'm still trying to remain patient for some kind of signal.  A negative divergence would be the optimum one for me.  We did get a signal for a decent price move in the next couple of days from the McClellan oscillator yesterday but it doesn't specify the direction.  Plenty of time left in the March option cycle with 3 weeks to go.  End of the month next week and plenty of economic data as well.  Plus a Trump speech to Congress.  So there will be plenty of reasons for the markets to move.  I'm going to have to look things over again the weekend and try to come up with some kind of game plan.  Plenty to ponder.  Europe and Asia were both lower overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The rally lives on as the Dow rose 34 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  The broken record of new high after new high for the Dow continues.  Overbought now for weeks but no decline in sight.  I'm not really sure what to say here.  I would like to think that we are closer to the top than to a bottom.  And I do think that.  But trying to guess the top is a losers game.  I'm going to wait for some type of negative divergence and go from there.  Hasn't happened yet.  We did get weakness in the TRAN and the smaller stocks today.  So perhaps a top is near.  GE was down a few cents but did come off of its lows.  Volume was average.  Gold found a bid as the futures rose $15.  The US dollar was weaker.  The XAU and GDX were little changed.  It isn't a plus when gold rallies and the gold shares do not follow.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The Dow has been up ten days in a row.  This isn't your normal market activity.  At this rate we'll tack on 1000 points in less than a month.  So I would certainly be careful about getting long here and really would not consider it.  I think the next trade for me will be the SPY March puts.  Perhaps we'll see a blow off top and then I would feel confident about getting short.  But until we see some kind of signal, the sidelines are the place for me at the moment.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight but not by much.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

The overall market lagged but the Dow managed a gain of 32 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The same technical conditions remain.  We are over extended any way you look at it.  The Dow has gone about straight up for two weeks.  There is no telling how long this can last but when the end comes it probably won't be pretty.  We are already in one of the longest bull markets in history.  I can also make a case for this being the last leg up of an A-B-C-E-F pattern or a 5 wave higher move on a multi-year basis.  If that is the case, then this is the final run higher before a bear market sets in.  However that is the bigger picture and we are looking at what to trade in the March option cycle.  GE was off about 20 cents on average volume.  I'm no longer considering a trade here.  Gold finished flat one the session as the US dollar was just a bit lower.  The XAU lost 1 3/4, while GDX shed about 1/3.  Volume picked up to the downside which is not a good sign for the bulls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We saw just a bit of weakness here and there among the major stock indices.  I would like to get some SPY March puts at some point.  However it is hard to try and step in front of this runaway freight train of higher prices.  What I really need to do is try and wait for a negative divergence in the technical indicators.  The battle as always is with myself.  Is it possible that things will run up into the March expiration as happened in February?  Well anything is possible at this point.  Another factor to consider is that the VIX is not correlating to the actual price movement lately.  I don't know exactly what that means but it is puzzling at the moment.  So I will continue to be patient for now as it is a short week as well.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The rally lives on as the Dow rose another 119 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  Overbought to the extreme at this point.  Some of the indicators have the highest readings in the past 5 years.  That doesn't mean that the rally will end right away but some type of pause is way overdue.  As I said before it is probably best to wait for some type of negative divergence on the technical indicators.  I am looking at the SPY March puts.  Trying to be patient though.  GE was up over 1/8 and the volume was a little better.  Gold was off just a bit as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  I still believe that the fundamentals do not favor gold at this point.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've rolled into the next option cycle and the market continues to defy gravity.  There isn't a lot of economic data out this week.  The VIX has been rising and so has the market.  That defies the usual logic.  What I can say that with the overbought condition that we are seeing today, we're closer to a top than to a bottom.  Once again I am hearing the term animal spirits in the financial media.  I do not know who makes this stuff up but it is completely ridiculous.  There are no sellers.  Money continues to pour into stocks.  Animal spirits?  That is complete fabrication.  Do not get sucked into the rally at this point.  There will be better entry points down the road in my opinion.  For now I'll wait for the negative divergence and try and be patient.  Europe and Asia were generally higher last night.  We'll keep an eye on things overnight. 

The beat goes on as the Dow rose 4 points on about average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The summation index is still trending higher.  Quite a week we just saw as the market is severely overbought and needs to take some kind of break in my opinion.  The breadth on the rise hasn't been good and I really do not think that this levitation has much more room on the upside for now.  Some type of consolidation or decline is way overdue.  I'll wait for the next signal before entering the next trade.  A negative divergence at some point would be the ideal scenario.  GE was off a few cents on lighter volume.  Gold was off around $5 on the futures as the US dollar bounced back.  The XAU lost 1 7/8, while GDX shed 3/8.  Volume was a little less than average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A losing trade this week with mistakes both getting in and getting out.  Not much money lost but the mental capital decline is always more important.  I suppose that perhaps I'll just stay away from the short term trades for now.  Looking back on the radar, there is no denying that this has been quite a nice move higher in the past couple of weeks.  The market was able to run up all the way to the end of expiration week.  There were no sellers.  The problem for the bulls going forward is the extreme overbought nature of things today and the poor breadth that accompanied this move higher.  That doesn't mean that we can't go a bit higher in the near term.  However a repeat of the roughly 500 or so point move in the Dow for the past week and a half probably won't be repeated.  I'll be looking at the SPY March puts at some point in the coming days.  Money is flowing into US assets though as the major foreign markets have yet to break out above their near term resistance.  Asia was lower overnight and Europe mixed.  A long holiday weekend is upon us and that will give me plenty of time to come up with some type of game plan for the next trade.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A pause in the run up as the Dow gained 7 points today on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The summation index is still moving up.  We were negative for much of the session.  I sold my SPY February puts for a 65% loss.  My exit today was horrible as well.  I could have cut the loss at least in half had I better tactics.  But it was not to be as this trade was a disaster from the beginning.  A day early on the entry and it never recovered.  The short term trades are just not in my wheel house so it seems.  We're still very overbought any way you look at it and some decline or consolidation is in order.  I'll be looking out to the March option cycle.  GE was up a dime and the volume was light.  Another missed trade here for me.  Gold added $7 on the futures as the US dollar was lower today.  The XAU rose a point and GDX gained 1/4 on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling disappointed after another losing trade.  Nobody to blame but myself there as the risk was pretty high due to the lack of time remaining.  I should have just passed.  Once again I think that leaving all the money on the table in the previous trade influenced what I did there.  You can't let that happen in the game.  But you move on.  The next trade in my mind will be the SPY puts again but the timing will have to be spot on.  Perhaps waiting for a negative divergence in the indicators would be the best idea for now.  We have had quite a straight line up and that will not last.  It should end sooner rather than later.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower last night.  We'll close out the week tomorrow. 

Overbought to the extreme at this point as the Dow climbed 107 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The positive expiration week bias is in full effect and there is still no overhead resistance as we continue to hit new all time highs day after day.  My SPY February puts are losers and I'll be lucky to get out tomorrow without any further damage.  This was a trade that in retrospect was best let undone.  Not a lot of money but not a low risk trade either.  We are powering ahead like a freight train and you should not try and step in front of that.  There will be better opportunities down the road.  Selling the SPY calls too early was my biggest mistake though.  GE was up a few cents on lighter volume.  Gold rose $8 on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU was off 7/8, with GDX unchanged.  Volume was very light.  Not a positive for gold to rise and the gold shares lag.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  The market continues to soar as the shorts get squeezed and there are no sellers.  This should continue into Friday I expect.  After that I would think that things would settle down as the breadth on the rise hasn't been good at all.  You cannot argue with price though.  Taking a losing trade here will not help my confidence level but the trading will go on.  Perhaps I should simply forget about the short term trades since they really are not what I'm successful with.  I think that my wrong tactics on the SPY February call trade contributed to me trying this other SPY put trade.  The battle in this game seems to always be with oneself.  As I've said before the markets can be irrational longer than most can remain solvent.  2 days left in the February option cycle and a long weekend on the way as well.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  However none can match the gains in the US stock market lately.  We'll probably continue the overbought ride higher tomorrow.

The rally moves on as the Dow gained 92 points on about average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is moving up.  Overbought, staying that way and no overhead resistance.  We also closed on the high of the session and that's bullish.  I did buy some SPY February puts today and they are already in the red.  I may be a day early on this trade but there isn't any room for error with only 3 days to go in the February option cycle.  So we'll see what happens.  We'll get plenty of economic data to trade off of tomorrow.  Yellen spoke today and the market shrugged.  GE was up 1/4 and the volume was good.  We now have GE and the market moving in tandem and that is a positive as well.  Gold was up a few bucks on the futures and the US dollar was a bit higher as well.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  There appears to be no stopping this market as we are setting new all time highs session after session.  Why try the SPY puts here then?  I am getting a signal to get short here.  I do not think that it is the beginning of a huge move down but the indicators do say that we'll see something to the downside and soon.  I'm trying not to be subjective and taking the signals as they come.  I do think that perhaps I want to put on another trade after selling out the SPY February calls way too soon.  That is my risk here.  There is not a lot of money in this trade so to me it was worth taking a shot.  You should go with the signals when they occur but yes, you can use your own discretion.  It would not be a surprise if we're higher tomorrow but this certainly won't last in a straight line up much longer.  Enjoy the ride if you're long.  Asia was lower and Europe mixed last night.  The moves were slight.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Powering higher to begin expiration week as the Dow was up 142 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  Overbought on all time frames now and the next logical trade would be the SPY puts.  The timing is the issue as usual because things can stay overbought for quite a while.  That is the dilemma we face at the moment.  My thinking is that the SPY February puts will be a winning trade at some point this week.  Trying to determine when will be the task.  GE was up 1/3 on good volume and it appears that the call trade here has been missed.  Maybe we could try it if we get a retest of the recent low.  But I think the opportune time has passed.  Gold fell $10 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Stocks are in rally mode as there is no overhead resistance.  The questions that remain is just how high will they go and how long can this last.  Usually higher and longer than you think.  Only 4 days to go in the February option cycle but I do think that pursuing an option trade on the put side will work at some point this week.  Every time frame is overextended to the upside for the S&P.  I may leave an open order in overnight.  This would be an extremely short term trade and that is usually not my best scenario.  Not to mention that I just left an awful lot of money on the table with my last trade.  I have got to make sure that the SPY February put trade is actually worth taking the risk and not just something to try and get back the missed money.  I don't expect the market to just turn around and start to head convincingly lower but I do expect some kind of short term weakness going forward.  Could we just keep moving higher for the remainder of the week?  We could but the odds suggest something lower at some point this week.  Europe and Asia were higher in overnight trade.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.  

Continuing higher to finish the trading week as the Dow added 96 points on about average volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  Short term overbought remains the condition for the Dow and the S&P.  Looking back it would have been better for me to let the SPY February call trade go another day.  That is money left on the table.  Expiration week is upon us and the usual positive bias could be in effect since there really is no overhead resistance here.  However we are due for some type of pause and I'll consider the SPY February puts for a short term trade on Monday.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  I'll also considering the March calls here but this issue has been a laggard lately.  Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures.  The US dollar was a bit higher today.  The XAU rose 1 3/8, while GDX added 3/8.  Volume was average.  The gold shares have moved higher since the middle of December but there doesn't seem to be any conviction to the move in my opinion.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Kicking myself for not holding on to the SPY call trade another day will get me nowhere.  There was a case to be made for hanging on another day but I took the profit instead.  Holding on could have doubled the gain if the exit was right today.  The thing about this game is that you've got to keep moving on regardless.  With a week to go in the February option cycle, any trade from here will have even more risk than usual.  The case can be made for some weakness early next week.  However we've seen in the past that the market can remain overbought for quite some time.  If the usual positive expiration bias shows up next week, the extended overbought condition will remain.  I'll have to check the technicals over the weekend and decide from there.  Timing. as usual, will be the key.  Europe and Asia were positive overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Finally the breakout to the upside that we've been waiting for as the Dow rose 118 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were just shy of 2 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index back up.  I do think that we could see another day of upside but I had to simply sell my position in the SPY February calls today.  I did not want to take the risk of a down open in the morning and then lose some of the todays profit.  My exit wasn't great but the trade did manage a 55% gain.  We did come off of the highs for the session in the final hour.  I'm still overall positive on things here but we may have to see some downside first before moving higher again.  GE was up over 1/8 on light volume.  Gold lost $7 on the futures as the US dollar was stronger on the day.  The XAU lost 2 3/4, while GDX shed 2/3.  Volume was good.  The gold shares are due for a rest.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It was nice to see the work pay off today but I do think that perhaps I could have held on for another day.  We're still short term overbought on the technical indicators for the S&P 500.  I think that if we can get the RUT and NYA to break through resistance that this thing could have legs.  But it hasn't happened yet.  I expect some weakness in the coming days and I do not know if there will be another set up before expiration.  I am still of the thought that the market will be moving higher in the medium term.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Another day of listless trading as the Dow fell 35 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is trending sideways.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The market is still trying to make up its mind what to do here.  I did expect strength here and we did not see any.  When the market doesn't do what you expect you have to sit up and take notice.  Perhaps my view on things is wrong here and the resistance won't get broken.  My SPY February calls are still in the red.  This is a trade that needs to be exited by the close on Friday.  GE was off 1/8 on average volume.  GE did break to a fresh low today.  Gold was up a buck on the futures and the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU rose 1 3/8, while GSX added 1/4.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not much else to say here as we are in a market waiting game.  That doesn't bode well for directional option trading.  I still think that this SPY trade can at least get back to break even if we see some rally in the next couple of days.  The trouble is that the longer we go sideways, the more time premium that gets sucked out of this trade.  There are only seven days left in the February option cycle.  So we'll see.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on what transpires tonight.

Another day of basically going nowhere as the Dow added 37 points on a little less than average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is trending sideways.  The S&P is trying to break out to new highs but with no success.  I do think that it is going to happen though and sooner rather than later.  I did purchase some SPY February calls today.  They are showing a slight loss.  My entry could have been a lot better but I do think that this is a trade that will work.  GE was off a dime and the volume was light.  Short term oversold for GE and if it can finally get going to the upside, that would bode well for the overall market.  Gold had a slight gain on the futures despite strength in the US dollar again.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  I'm not exactly 100% recovered from my recent cold.  So the next trade is on and it is one that probably shouldn't be held for too long.  In this case, that means getting out before the weekend.  Right now Thursday looks to be the day to sell.  But we'll have to see how it goes tomorrow.  We're still short term overbought for the S&P 500 but I think we'll stay that way.  I could be wrong.  I do expect some upside for this index tomorrow.  How much is the question.  As I have said before, there is no resistance once we pass the 2300 barrier.  If we can get by there on good volume, the trade will work.  Asia was slightly lower and Europe mixed overnight.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

A quiet start to the week and we were lower for all of the session.  The Dow fell 19 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  This may put the summation index back in a sideways trend.  There was no follow through to the positive action on Friday and that could be a concern.  I do expect some strength here in the very near term and did place an order for the SPY February calls but wasn't filled again.  If there is weakness tomorrow, I'll probably try this trade idea again.  We are more overbought than oversold at this juncture though.  The potential set up is still there but it isn't as strong as it was last week.  GE was off a few cents and the volume remains light here as well.  I'm laying off the call trade there for now.  Gold continues to hold traders interest as the futures rose $15 despite a rose in the US dollar.  The XAU was higher by 3 1/4, while GDX added 7/8.  Volume was good.  I still think that the fundamentals for gold a re negative though.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Less than 2 weeks to go in the February option cycle.  I'm looking at a very short term trade for the SPY this week.  If we are lower at some point tomorrow, I will probably give it a try.  Timing, as usual, is everything.  Not a lot of data to trade off of this week so we will have to see what happens.  February isn't a seasonally good time for stocks either.  But my work is showing that getting long on weakness tomorrow might work for a couple of days.  So we'll see.  Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

A nice rally today to end the week as the Dow soared 186 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 4 to 1 positive.  The summation index will be moving back to the upside.  The employment report was better than expected on some counts and we took off from the open.  I'm still considering the SPY February calls because if the S&P 500 can get through 2300, there is no overhead resistance.  I still believe that declines can be bought but the best opportunity passed yesterday in my mind.  If we can get some decline on Monday, that might be the time to take another stab at that trade.  However we will be getting short term overbought here in a hurry.  GE was up a couple cents on average volume but continues to lag.  GE is out of sync with the overall market.  Either the market is ahead of itself or GE needs to play catch up as the overall rally continues.  The technical indicators are oversold on the short term and mid-range medium term for GE.  Perhaps I should try a trade here.  Gold was up a couple bucks despite the decent jobs report.  The US dollar again finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on very light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit better but not all the way back yet from having a cold.  I'm trying not to let yesterdays failed attempt at the SPY calls bother me too much.  The basic idea was a correct one and that is a plus.  If I am reading things here correctly, then I think we've got more room to go higher in the February option cycle.  I can make a case for higher prices into the close on the upcoming Wednesday of next week.  However after that, I'm not so sure.  So for the short term the plan is to buy on weakness if we get any Monday and then sell out by the close on Wednesday.  The market rarely cooperates though.  I'll be taking a look at GE over the weekend as well.  Perhaps the March calls will be the play.  Plenty to ponder in the next couple of days.  Asia was mixed and Europe slightly higher overnight.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.  

Another lackluster trading session as the Dow fell 6 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still trending lower.  I once again tried to get the SPY February calls but my order wasn't filled despite adjusting it a couple of times.  Perhaps I should have just tried a market order but you know what happens when you do that.  I'm still a believer in this trade so we'll have to see what happens with the market reaction to the employment report tomorrow.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 remain at mid-range.  GE was off a couple cents and the volume was really light.  Gold rallied $10 on the futures as the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU was up 1 1/3, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm still not at 100% as I am getting over a cold.  Perhaps that is why I could not think straight when trying to get my order for the SPY calls filled.  With each passing day this is a trade that I want to do.  The set up on one of my indicators is indicating a buy signal for the market.  If we open lower tomorrow I may get the chance.  If not it will most likely be too late for this idea.  At this point the best thing for me to do is to get some rest and see what happens in the morning.  Europe and Asia were generally lower last night.  We'll finish out the trading week tomorrow as all eyes will be on the jobs numbers.

Another day of hanging around to begin the month as the Dow added 26 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The NASDAQ continues to out perform and things remain bullish in my mind as long as that is the case.  The summation index is trending lower but by no means does it look like a rout.  I did place an order for the SPY February calls but it wasn't filled.  I'll need to be in this trade before the close on Monday for it to work.  The ideal scenario would be more of the same listless market lack of activity going into there.  We'll see if the market cooperates.  GE was off a penny on light volume.  The potential double bottom is still in place.  Gold was off a touch as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX ended the day little changed.  Volume was around average.  Mentally I'm tired and not feeling well.  It's hard to trade under these conditions but luckily I already have an idea of what I want to do.  The Fed came and went.  The next event will be the employment report on Friday.  I may leave in an open order for the SPY calls overnight as I need to rest in the morning.  Europe and Asia were higher in last nights trading.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.