Now that was an interesting 24 market hours.  The US election was an upset as Donald Trump prevailed.  I was wrong on that guess.  Markets around the world collapsed on the realization that Trump was going to become president of the US.  The S&P 500 futures were down over 100 points.  It was incredible.  Even more incredible was the comeback.  The market came all the way back and then some.  The Dow finished today up 256 points on extremely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still trying to turn around.  The weak advance/declines for the past 2 sessions is puzzling.  I would have thought that we'd see at least a 2 to 1 or 3 to 1 ratio there.  You can't argue with price though.  My SPY November calls are still in the black.  GE was up almost 1/4 on heavy volume.  Gold, which had rallied $50 overnight finished with a gain of $5 on the futures.  The US dollar was stronger.  The XAU was up 2 2/3, while GDX added 2/3.  Volume was heavy but the gold shares finished well off of their highs.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock market crashed and came back all in a 24 hour period.  Well, the futures market did.  The cash market fell a bit this morning but then rallied hard.  We are getting to short term overbought but aren't there yet.  Of course we could always remain overbought once we get there.  I'm inclined to take whatever profit I have in this SPY trade tomorrow but I do think that we're going higher before expiration.  Friday is a semi-holiday for Veterans day and the bond market will be closed.  What happened in the markets last night was crazy and I hope we don't see anything like that again anytime soon.  There is no way to trade that kind of market action using options when the options market is closed.  The volume today was huge and we did break some downtrend lines on various indices.  So I still think that we're going higher.  It is a matter of how much before expiration and when to sell out the current SPY November call position.  I can make a case for holding on until next week but that's something I'll have to think about tonight.  Asia got rocked last night, while Europe was able to follow the US and finished with decent gains.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight action.

Still moving higher today as the Dow rose 73 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still trying to turn around.  We'll get the election results tonight and go from there.  The market is still not short term overbought yet.  My SPY November calls are still in the black.  I'll seriously be thinking about selling them if we get follow through upside tomorrow morning.  But I do think that this is the start of a longer term move higher.  If we can get the summation index turned back up, that would strengthen the rally theory.  The VIX has room to move lower as well.  GE was up 1/8 on OK volume.  We've made it back to the 50 day moving average here.  Gold was off $4 on the futures and the US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  With most of the earnings out of the way and the election season in the rear view mirror, what will be moving the market next?  That will the question on traders minds and I certainly don't have the answer.  I do know that the summation index is poised to turn back up and that would lead to a sustained move higher.  Hasn't happened yet but I do think that it will.  I think that with 9 days in a row lower for the S&P, the market pretty much sold itself out for the short term.  Unless there is a Trump upset victory tonight, we're going higher and to new all time highs before the year is out.  That's nothing that anybody is talking about now and the market likes to do what is least expected at times.  This could be one of those times.  Europe and Asia were generally higher but not significantly.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

An oversold bounce and then some.  The Dow soared 371 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were about 5 to 1 positive.  I don't think the summation index will be turned around after todays market move but it is on the way to doing so.  Extremely oversold is where we were and we're not overbought yet.  Short covering and some new money came into play today.  My SPY November calls have moved all the way back into the black.  I think that this is the start of a move higher and I think that I'll hold these calls until Wednesday.  Of course I could change my mind.  I certainly did not expect a 46 point move up in one day for the S&P 500.  GE was up 7/8 on good volume.  Over the weekend I considered buying some January calls here but it is probably too late for that.  I still may if we get a pullback but I don't see that happening in the near future.  Gold got whacked as the flight to safety ended.  The precious metal futures fell over $20 as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU fell 2 1/3, while GDX lost a point.  Volume was good.  I'd expect gold and the gold shares to be lower to sideways until after the next Fed meeting.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We gained all that we lost last week in a day.  That wasn't expected by anyone.  Small stocks had huge moves today and the TRAN broke out above overhead resistance.  I think that the move higher has legs.  The advance/decline volume was almost 10 to 1 positive as well.  We'll have to see how the rest of the week plays out but if the gains hold, the medium term picture will turn bullish as well.  So we'll see.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight as well.  The market may be on hold tomorrow to get the election out of the way but I do think that we'll be moving higher.  New all time highs before the year is out?  As we've recently seen, anything is possible.

Down yet again today as the Dow could not hold onto its gains and lost 42 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive though and the overall market wasn't as weak as the Dow.  The summation index continues lower.  The employment report was just a tad weaker than anticipated.  There is something going on here but I certainly don't know what.  The extreme oversold condition of the market is dangerous but we still haven't seen a collapse.  My SPY November calls are still losers and it will take quite a miracle to get back to break even, if that's even possible.  The bounce that I'm waiting for has never arrived.  Oversold on all levels.  GE was up 1/8 or so on good volume.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures and the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on average volume.  Still short term overbought for the gold miners.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Very extreme technical conditions at the moment.  This is something that is rarely experienced.  My guess is that we are going to get a giant relief rally after the election next week.  I do not think that we are going to crash.  The market has had that opportunity to collapse all week and it simply meanders its way lower.  The technical position that we're in is rare.  I suppose anything could happen but I would be shocked if we didn't get a huge move to the upside at some point in the coming week.  It may not last but it would be a chance to exit the SPY calls at a smaller loss.  Or who knows?  Perhaps it would be the beginning of a sustained move higher.  2 weeks to go in the November option cycle.  Once again I'll say that I do not know what is going on here with the market.  I do know that the market usually knows more than we do.  The extreme condition that we see today will probably resolve itself with something just as extreme.  Next week should be one of the most interesting market weeks that we've had in a while.  That is my prediction.  I'm also expecting a multi-hundred point move on some day during next week.  And my guess it that it will be to the upside.  I cannot stress enough the strangeness of the stock market at the moment.  The weakness is coming from something but I do not think that it's the US election.  Clinton should win and Congress should be split by party.  Perhaps there's something else that the market knows and we'll eventually find out.  I don't know.  Asia and Europe were mildly lower overnight, again with the exception of the losses in NIKK.  Plenty of charts to study over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The downtrend continues as the Dow fell 29 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  I have no explanation for what we are seeing here.  We are at a point where we should have seen a bounce or a collapse.  Neither has occurred.  The decline is slow and orderly.  Oversold on all indicators with no short covering or relief rally.  My SPY November calls are solidly in the red.  I suppose at this rate I will at least wait for the election before dumping them.  This is one of the strangest market periods that I've seen.  GE was off another 1/4 on light volume.  Gold was off around $5 on the futures as the US dollar continues to the downside.  The XAU rose 1 2/3, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was average.  Still overbought on the short term for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm doing OK besides being confused about the goings on here.  Perhaps the employment report tomorrow will bring some added volatility.  That's just a guess.  The VIX is already in the 20's and overbought.  But at the rate things are going here, that won't mean anything.  An extremely puzzling market situation is what we have here, only because the oversold condition persists without any relief.  The trend is obviously down and the small stocks have been the leaders.  Near term support has been violated on many charts and the 200 day moving average is now in play in several instances.  I've been looking for a bounce all week and it hasn't happened.  I guess I can't rule out the status quo move lower until the election.  That is something that I did not count on or expect.  When the normal technical indicators don't work, it usually means we're in extraordinary times.  It certainly doesn't seem like that to me.  But the market always has the final say and the support I saw at 2100 for the S&P 500 hasn't held either.  Asia and Europe were mostly lower with NIKK having the biggest decline.  We'll finish up the week tomorrow on the jobs report.  Interesting times. 

Oversold and still moving lower as the Dow fell 77 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading down.  The Fed announcement came and went.  We got a little rally there but could not hold on.  We are at a spot technically that deserves some upside unless we crash.  I do not expect the market to fall apart here.  The bounce that I'm looking for is long overdue.  The readings on my indicators point to this being an ideal time to buy, even for the medium term.  The roughly 2100 level on the S&P 500 should hold and I'm looking for higher prices from here.  My SPY November calls are well in the red but even these have a chance to get back to break even with just over 2 weeks in the November option cycle.  So we'll see.  GE was off over 1/3 on average volume.  It was a new closing low for GE in its slide.  Gold was up about $20 but fell in the aftermarket.  The US dollar lost ground again.  The XAU and GDX had one day reversals to the downside, opening higher and closing lower.  They lost 1 1/2 and 1/3 respectively on heavy volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It appears that fear and uncertainty have gripped the market.  Unless something is going on under the surface that I'm not aware of, these fears will prove unfounded.  The technical indicators are so oversold that we almost have to move higher.  Some of the major indexes are either at or near their 200 day moving averages.  They should find support there.  The only thing that would negate the positive near term outlook here is a market crash.  When you get the extreme readings we are seeing now along with all the negative market media, it's time to take the other side.  I could be wrong but I really don't think so.  I still expect a decent bounce and it should happen before the close on Friday.  I don't see any surprises with the US election and there should be a relief rally in a week for US equities.  I'm sticking with the theory that SPY calls are the way to go here.  Europe and Asia had decent losses overnight.  We'll be keeping an eye on the overnight action.

Volatility returned today as the Dow fell 105 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still heading lower.  We were off just over 200 at the lows of the session.  The S&P 500 broke the support at 2120 and dipped below 2100.  I think that 2100 should hold things here but the market will go where it wants.  Remaining short term oversold for the major averages and that could be dangerous as we saw today.  However I am still a believer in the SPY November calls at this juncture and I did purchase some today.  Of course I was early and paid more than I wanted to for them.  I should have waited to see if we were going to hit the 2100 level once we broke 2120.  Hindsight is never wrong and does you no good in the heat of the battle.  I'm rusty for sure but what I saw today is opportunity to me.  GE lost about 1/4 on average volume.  Gold found buyers with the drop in equities.  The precious metal futures rose $16 as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU gained 2 1/3, while GDX added almost 2/3.  Volume was good again.  Short term overbought on the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm not sure where this decline is heading but I do expect a bounce right now.  With the market recovering half of what it lost today, perhaps we've seen the worst of the selling for now.  My owns short term indicators are very oversold and some kind of upside is coming.  Whether or not it's enough to get my SPY November calls in the black is another question.  Timing is everything when it comes to trading options for the short term.  If we do simply continue to trade lower then be ready for some type of collapse.  But I do believe we'll at least hold up here for a couple of days.  We've got the Fed announcement tomorrow and that should really be a non event.  The jobs report on Friday will probably be viewed as more important.  Plus whatever headlines come out of the election propaganda before the 8th.  Plenty of noise for the markets to sift through.  We'll stick to the technicals and expect some upside bounce tomorrow.  Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight.  I'm expecting the 2100 level to hold for the S&P 500 and perhaps will look to try the calls again if we get back there. 

We started the week and finished the month of October pretty much flat on the session.  The Dow fell 18 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index continues lower.  We were positive for most of the day and did not really see any decline.  I did place an order for the SPY November calls.  It wasn't filled but I am leaving it open overnight.  We are now short term overbought and should be heading higher from here.  A bounce at the least.  I can only hope that I'll be able to take advantage of it.  The VIX was higher today but there wasn't any volatility or decline.  I'm puzzled about that.  We've got economic data due this week and a Fed meeting.  So there will be plenty of excuses for things to happen.  I'm sticking with the buy weakness mantra.  I do believe that it will work here.  GE was off 1/8 after being higher earlier on heavy volume.  Still moving here on the takeover/acquisition talk.  Gold didn't do much today and the US dollar was little changed as well.  The XAU gained 2 1/8, while GDX added 3/4.  Volume was good.  Perhaps the gold shares will be leading the precious metal higher.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll begin the month of November tomorrow and the seasonality factor will be positive for stocks despite the election for now.  Plenty of time in the November option cycle.  I'm not sure what the market is waiting for but I do expect positive price action near term.  It would be great to see some weakness early tomorrow morning to perhaps fill my option order but that is just wishful thinking.  I would be surprised if we were lower on the day tomorrow.  The SPY option premiums are too high for my taste at the moment.  That said, the time for the calls is now in my opinion.  Europe and Asia were slightly lower overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

Another interesting session as the Dow fell 8 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues lower.  We bounced around all over the place today with the overall market continuing to be weaker than the Dow.  The S&P 500 challenged the support at 2120 and bounced off.  Not completely short term oversold for the S&P but we will get there if Monday is negative.  My thinking is that any decline on Monday can be bought.  I'll be looking to purchase the SPY November calls.  The premiums are still high for the strike price that I'm looking at but there will be a short term buy signal if we close lower on Monday.  GE jumped 5/8 today on the possible takeover of a rival.  There is no other explanation for the sudden move in GE.  Volume was 2 times normal.  Gold rose $7 on the futures as the US dollar was lower despite a GDP report that was a bit better than expected.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  My indicators are setting up for a buy on Monday if there is weakness.  I'm not sure if it will be the beginning of a rally or simply another case of relieving the short term oversold condition of the market.  The small stocks have been very weak of late and that isn't a good sign for calls.  The Dow has had better relative strength and that is something that is also a concern.  The daily chart of the Dow also has the Bollinger bands contracting to the point where we should see some type of big move one way or the other soon.  It is altogether possible that we are on the verge of a breakdown.  The lower summation index and small stock under performance are bearish.  However we are technically nearing the condition where we should at least see a bounce after Mondays price action.  I could be wrong but I'll be looking to purchase some SPY November calls.  Perhaps we'll see a final shake out before heading higher.  That would be the ideal scenario.  There will be plenty of charts to study over the weekend.  Monday will end the month of October as well.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

Lower today as we couldn't find any buyers in the final hour.  The Dow fell about 30 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were more than 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  Once again the overall market was weaker than the Dow with the small stocks leading the way.  That is not a bullish condition.  I canceled my open order for the SPY November calls.  I'd like to try this trade again tomorrow or perhaps Monday if we continue to move lower.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages have rolled over with the exception of the Dow.  Waiting for an oversold reading would be the prudent course of action.  That reading could come on Monday if we continue to trend down.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume was light.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures today, while the US dollar was higher.  The XAU shed 1 1/8, while GDX lost 3/8.  Volume was average.  The gold shares now appear to be rolling back over.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX has turned back up and so have its short term technical indicators.  That isn't a positive development.  The summation index is moving lower.  As much as I would like to purchase some SPY November calls, the technical picture is telling a different story.  The small stocks are really under performing lately and that is not a good sign for the bulls.  RUT has already broken the lower boundary of its trading channel and NYA is on the cusp of doing the same.  It appears that my idea for the SPY calls is the wrong one.  But we'll see.  The reaction to the GDP report tomorrow will be the key for Fridays trading I believe.  The final hour drop today wasn't encouraging.  Plenty of time in the November option cycle to do a trade of some sort.  We'll take our cues form the market and right now it is saying that we're headed lower.  Perhaps things won't be cleared up until after the election.  Or not.  Plenty to ponder.  Asia was lower and Europe little changed last night.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.   

A mixed bag today as the Dow was higher but the rest of the indices trailed.  The most watched index gained 30 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  This should turn the summation index back down and that is not a positive sign.  The overall market was much weaker than the Dow, with the small stocks leading the way lower.  These are not bullish indications.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages have begun to roll over as well, with the exception of the Dow.  The RUT hit a fresh new recent low.  I did place an order for the SPY November calls though but it wasn't filled.  I'm leaving the order in overnight.  GE was up almost 1/4 on light volume.  Gold fell $6 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit lower as well.  The XAU shed 1 7/8, while GDX lost 1/2.  Volume was good.  Mentally I feel OK.  The technical back drop for getting the SPY November calls isn't ideal.  I may be early, as I can make a case for waiting to purchase them until we are short term oversold.  I do expect Friday to be a day of movement in the stock exchanges, off of the 3rd quarter GDP report.  I certainly do not know which way.  We've been in a trend channel for the S&P 500 for 4 months.  The range is roughly 2190-2120.  Once we break out, the move higher or lower should be pretty good.  You want to be in on that.  I'm thinking that we'll have another test of the lower end and that it will hold.  I could be wrong.  For me, the question is whether or not to wait for the GDP number on Friday.  I suppose I'll have to see how we move tomorrow and take it from there.  Europe and Asia were generally lower last night. 

Lower today as the Dow fell 53 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is trending sideways.  Better volume to the downside and that is not a positive.  The market really can't get anything going one way or the other.  Short term overbought and oversold conditions are met with small moves one way or the other to relieve the conditions.  It is a tough and treacherous trading environment.  I am still looking to try the SPY November calls this week if we continue lower.  Perhaps tomorrow will be the day but the technical indicators are not exactly where I want them for a purchase.  I may have to err on the side of caution.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume was light.  Poor performance here is another sign of trouble.  However we've been dropping here for a few months while the overall market has moved sideways.  Gold rose over $10 on the futures as the US dollar finished little changed again.  The XAU was up 2 1/4, while GDX added better than 1/2.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  I am still recovering from my hospital nightmare but do feel well enough to trade.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages are starting to roll over again.  That is one of my concerns in attempting to place a trade on the call side in the next few days.  We do have some economic data coming out in the next 3 days.  The most market worthy in my mind will be the first look at GDP for the 3rd quarter on Friday.  I do believe that will be a mover for equities and as always the question is which way?  I'm now thinking that if we head lower into Thursday morning, that will be where I'd take a chance on the November calls.  But we still have tomorrow to get through.  Things are never set in stone with this game.  We could also simply head down from here and take out the lows.  That would negate any ideas of trading in calls near term.  So there's plenty to keep an eye on this week.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight, with nominal moves.  We'll get earnings from AAPL after the bell and that could set the tone for tomorrow.

We begin the week with a nice gain as the Dow rose 77 points on what passes for average volume these days.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still trying to turn around and I believe that it will.  The small stocks along with the overall market were stronger than the Dow.  That's a positive and that's what I'd like to see.  Getting short term overbought for the major indices.  Any weakness now can be bought in my opinion.  I'm looking at the SPY November calls and if we see some pullback this week, that is what I will purchase for the next trade.  The ideal scenario would be a down day tomorrow with follow through on Wednesday morning.  That would be the purchase time if things occur in that order.  The market rarely cooperates.  GE was of a few cents on average volume.  Gold fell a couple bucks on the futures.  The US dollar didn't move much.  The XAU lost 1 3/4, while GDX shed 1/2.  Volume was average.  The short term technical indicators for the gold shares appear to be rolling back over here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We're still waiting for something to happen with the months long trend channel that we've been stuck in.  My short term indicators say that we should see some downside tomorrow but they aren't right all the time.  Nothing is.  Plenty of time in the November option cycle to make a trade.  Perhaps I'm wrong here and we will simply continue to move sideways.  However with the summation index attempting to turn back up, I'm going to take my cues from there.  Europe and Asia were generally higher last night, although the FTSE was down.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and go from there.

The Dow lost 16 points today on what passes for average volume these days.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  We sold off early and spent the rest of the day trying to get back to even.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow, with the small stocks leading the way.  That is a positive.  I'll be looking to get some SPY November calls on weakness next week.  Another test of the recent lows would be the ideal scenario for me.  GE was off about a dime and followed the overall market pattern for the session.  Down early and trying to come back.  My idea of purchasing the calls and puts only would have worked if you sold out of both positions in the first 5 minutes of trading.  The profit would have been small and certainly not worth the risk.  The calls would have been wiped out and the gain on the puts would have barely put the 2 trades into the black.  The price movement on the earnings wasn't big enough to make that idea worth it.  But of course, you don't know that ahead of time.  The gold futures were flat with the US dollar higher yet again.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on very light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We made it through option expiration week and it was pretty tame considering that it's October.  I'd like to think that the market is going to hold in here and some type of rally is about to begin.  The short term technical indicators for the major indices are still mid-range.  The summation index is trying to turn around here in my opinion.  We're at an important point for the S&P.  If we roll over and take out the support at 2120, we could see a decent decline.  But it seems to me like the market wants to hang in here with the recent price action.  What I don't want to see is more of the same sideways price action that leads to nowhere.  With the November option cycle now in play, we have a full 4 weeks of time premium left.  More sideways inaction will erode the premium and make outright speculation even more difficult that it already is.  But we all know that you can't tell the market what to do.  It will get where it's going in its own time.  I'm sticking with the SPY November calls theory for now.  Europe and Asia were mixed last night with slight price moves.  I'll check the charts over the weekend as usual.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

Bouncing around today as the Dow fell 40 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is trying to turn around.  What happens here with the summation index should tell us if we are going to get some type of rally or plummet.  That is what I believe right now.  The short term indicators for the S&P are back to mid-range  I also still expect a positive resolution to the multi-month channel that the S&P 500 is in.  I'm still looking at the SPY November calls as the next trade.  GE was flat and the volume was average for lately.  I did like the idea of getting both the $29 puts and calls for October, with the earnings due tomorrow.  However I did not risk any money on this idea.  We'll see if it would have worked.  Gold was off a few bucks on the futures and the US dollar was higher today.  The XAU and GDX both had very slight fractional losses on pretty light volume.  It's possible that the decline in the gold shares is over.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not a lot of volatility considering it is option expiration week.  Things have been pretty orderly so far.  We've worked off the short term oversold condition, so there's a possibility that we'll head back to test the recent lows again.  If that occurs, I will be getting some SPY November calls unless the retest is a collapse.  I don't believe that will be the case.  Perhaps the recent slight move higher has some legs as well.  We are going to have to let the market figure things out.  Many are cautious at the moment and you usually don't get a big decline with that type of environment.  But who knows?  Europe and Asia were both higher in overnight trade.  We'll close out the week with option expiration Friday.

We managed to continue higher today as the Dow rose 40 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trying to turn around here.  Today may have stopped the decline in the summation index.  This is important as it would signify that the broader market is gaining strength.  I'm a believer in this hypothesis and will continue to look at the SPY November calls as the next trade.  The market softened after the release of the Feds beige book but it was not a wholesale decline.  It is option expiration though and things could get tricky in the next 2 days.  The S&P 500 has bounced off of a short term oversold condition.  GE was up a few cents and came off of its highs.  Volume was about average for lately.  Expect movement here on Friday with the earnings release.  Perhaps purchasing both puts and calls at the $29 strike price would be a good idea.  Gold added $7 on the futures as the US dollar finished little changed again.  The XAU rose 2 1/4, while GDX gained 2/3.  Volume picked up.  A nice bounce so far this week for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  2 days doesn't make a trend but I like the fact that the market has held up at this juncture.  Of course it remains to be seen if this is the start of something real of just another fluctuation in the continuing trend channel.  If we can get the summation index turned around, that would be an important clue.  I would like to let this week pass and then attempt to purchase the SPY November calls next week.  That is the ideal scenario for me at the moment.  the market rarely cooperates though.  I am more and more leaning towards a bullish resolution to the ongoing price action though.  I do not see a collapse here as imminent.  I could be wrong.  Asia was mixed, with Europe slightly positive overnight.  We'll keep an eye on aftermarket developments.

We did get a slight bounce today as the Dow rose 75 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still heading lower though.  However the overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The short term technical indicators have turned up from an oversold reading but that doesn't mean that a rally is imminent.  We could simply turn back down again tomorrow.  I would be more convinced of a sustained move higher if we can build on today and get the summation index turned around.  Hasn't happened yet.  I am still looking at the SPY November calls though.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  Gold gained $7 on the futures as the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU added 3 1/8, while GDX gained 7/8.  Volume was OK.  We've held the 200 day moving average on the gold shares for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The economic data today was in line with expectations.  We'll get the Feds beige book tomorrow and that could be a mover.  It would be a positive if we could build on todays gains.  However the volume remains anemic and that is troublesome in either direction.  Plus there's the possibility that we're on hold until the election here is over.  We did get a signal for a bounce and it worked.  But where we go from here is the next question.  I don't have the answers at the moment.  Both Europe and Asia were positive overnight.  We'll keep an eye on things tonight as it appears that INTC disappointed with its earnings in the aftermarket.

Lower to the beginning of option expiration week as the Dow fell 52 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues lower.  No buyers to be found as we drift lower.  Technically we're short term oversold so a case can be made here for a bounce.  I'm not sold on any type of sustainable rally at the moment.  We would have to see the breadth improve and the small stocks take the lead to the upside for a longer term move higher.  However the decline needs to be contained here and now or it has the potential to spiral down much lower than where are now.  So we are at a key point in time in my opinion.  I think that the bounce is possible but beyond that I'm just not sure.  GE lost few cents on average volume.  Earnings due on Friday.  Gold was little changed and the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU added 1 1/4, while GDX rose 1/3.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  A fair amount of economic data still due this week along with the Feds beige book and more earnings reports.  If we don't bounce tomorrow it could be an ugly session.  If we do bounce, the nature and strength of a move higher will tell us a lot about where we are going.  There has been a lot of chatter about being on hold until after the US presidential election.  That could happen as well, which would simply keep us moving sideways in a channel.  That has been the case for quite a while.  But I think tomorrow is important, given where we are at on the charts.  I'm thinking that we will bounce but I could be wrong.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  Stay tuned.

We started out with a jump to the upside and the Dow was up over 150 points.  However we spent the rest of the day drifting lower and the Dow finished with a gain of 39 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index is still heading lower.  The economic data came in as expected.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The small stocks continue to under perform.  The short term technical indicators remain oversold for the major indices.  Option expiration week is coming up.  GE was up 1/8 and the volume remains light.  Earnings due here in a week.  Gold was off $5 on the futures as the US dollar snapped back to the upside.  The XAU lost 1 1/2, while GDX shed 1/2.  Volume was light.  The strong dollar will remain a headwind for the gold complex.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Still watching the 2120 level on the S&P 500 as key support but I do think that 2100 is more important.  I could also make the case for some kind of bounce in the next couple of days as well.  However with the summation index heading lower and the small caps not showing any strength, the case for lower prices seems to be the better choice for now.  I'd still like to get some SPY November calls at some point in the next couple of weeks.  The market has been sideways for 3 months.  The breakout will be worth trading either way.  I'm still a believer in new all time highs before the end of the year.  But I'll try and listen to what the market is saying.  This weeks price action was not positive.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual.  I am feeling better but not all the way back yet.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The market sold off hard early and then spent the rest of the day making a comeback.  We didn't quite make it all the way back as the Dow fell 45 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The small stocks are still under performing.  Oversold on the short term technicals for the major indices but there is still a little bit of room to move lower.  The 2120 level in the S&P 500 is said to be an important point to hold.  I think the 2100 level is the number but that's just my interpretation of things at the moment.  The daily candlestick pattern on the S&P today has the potential to be a hammer depending on the market action going forward.  GE fell 1/8 and the volume was light.  Gold rose $5 on the futures as the US dollar was lower for a change.  The XAU and GDX had small fractional gains on average volume.  Trying to hold at the 200 day moving average for the gold share indices.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It appeared that we were going to fall off a cliff early this morning but buyers showed up and stemmed the decline.  However with the summation index still heading down, the path of least resistance is lower.  The VIX had another jump up and the technical indicators here are overbought.  I think that we are at a spot where maybe the selling is getting exhausted in the near term.  I could be wrong.  I'm not sure how the market will react to the economic data tomorrow but that would be the case at any time.  I'd like to see us get down to the 2100 level on the S&P 500.  That would be my entry point for the SPY November calls.  Could all just be wishful thinking on my part.  Europe and Asia were generally lower as the data from China last night was weaker than expected.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

A day of running in place as the Dow gained 15 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is still heading lower.  The small stocks showed relative weakness and that is not a positive.  However the technical indicators on the VIX are pretty much overbought and that could spell some near term relief.  We didn't have any downside follow through to yesterdays decline and that is a plus as well.  But the market will go where it wants.  The Fed minutes today were basically a non-event.  GE was off a couple cents and the volume was light.  Gold was flat on the session as the US dollar continues to rise.  Overbought and staying that was for the dollar.  The XAU rose 1 3/4 and GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK but physically feeling tired.  Running out of time in the October option cycle.  Friday could get volatile, with retail sales plus inflation data.  More oversold than overbought for the major big cap averages.  Earnings just beginning here as well.  It never gets easy.  I'll try and be patient for a good signal.  I'm still considering the SPY November calls at the moment.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Selling all around today as the Dow fell 200 points on light to average volume.  The advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading down.  I thought that perhaps it was going to make an attempt to turn around here.  Obviously wrong after todays market action.  No real reasons given for todays decline.  The short term technical indicators are trying to roll over here for the major averages.  Even the small caps took a beating today.  We'll have to see if this is the start of some type of bigger decline.  I'm not exactly sure at the moment.  GE was up a few cents on average volume.  The damage has already been done here.  Gold was off $6 on the futures as the US dollar continues to rise.  The XAU shed 1 3/4, while GDX lost over 1/2.  Volume was average.  As long as the dollar continues to rally, gold will not be bought.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Yesterdays gain was on light volume which most likely was the result of Columbus Day.  But as usual, light volume rallies are unreliable.  Depending on how this week concludes, we are breaking some up trend lines on the major indexes that began with the lows of February.  But the week isn't over yet and we could potentially rally back in the next 3 days.  The VIX rose today as well but isn't overbought yet.  The S&P 500 did manage to bounce from its lower Bollinger band on a daily basis today.  Perhaps that will keep things in check going forward.  If we do get to oversold on the short term indicators for the S&P, then I may try the go out to the SPY November calls.  That is the only idea that I have in the works right now.  We really haven't seen any trend in the S&P since mid-July, so it is hard on whether to say that this is actually the start of one.  Time will tell on that.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower last night.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The Dow rose 88 points today on light volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index will still be heading lower but perhaps it is trying to turn around here.  It was a partial holiday in the US with Columbus day.  Not all of the players were at their desks.  The market is still trying to make up its mind on which way to go here.  Earnings begin again this week.  No clear signal yet, so I'll remain on the sidelines for now.  GE was off almost 1/4 on average volume.  One of the problems that I have here for a rally is the continued under performance of a bellwether such as GE.  It broke to another new low since mid July today.  Gold rose $9 on the futures and the US dollar was higher today as well.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on very light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  9 days left in the October option cycle.  It doesn't appear that I'll be making a trade unless things line up technically for the S&P 500.  The indicators that I follow continue to hover mid-range for the short term.  I will say that the continued strength in the small caps does bode well for the overall market going forward.  However the timing of my next trade is always in question and I just don't have the answer right now.  I'm still recovering from my recent bout with ill health but am feeling better at least.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  We'll look for some follow through upside in the markets tomorrow.

The employment report came and went and we are still in a sideways pattern of indecision.  The Dow fell 28 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  We did come off of the lows for the session.  The summation index is still moving down.  There's still no resolution to which way we're going to break out here.  A lot of the short term technical indicators for the major indices remain mid-range.  We did have a British pound flash crash overnight and the market shrugged that off.  I'm still a believer in higher prices eventually but the timing is far from certain.  GE fell about 20 cents on better volume.  This issue has been lower since mid July and is not offering any overall support to the market at this time.  Gold was up $5 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on average volume.  The jobs report was slightly less than anticipated but offered nothing in the way of moving gold much higher.  Mentally I'm doing OK.  We waited for the employment report but we still have no clarity in the stock market.  I'm not sure what the issue is.  I don't think it's the upcoming presidential election in the US.  The next interest rate move won't be until December, if at all.  Perhaps it's the fear of some kind of October collapse but these things never happen when everyone is looking for one.  So I'll simply continue to wait it out.  When we get oversold, I'll look to the SPY calls.  If we move up to get to be overbought, I'll look to the SPY puts.  At this point going out to November seems to have to the prudent choice.  The market will move at its own pace.  There will be some economic data due next week but not a lot.  Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend but the plan of waiting for a decent signal should remain intact.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A one day reversal to the upside for the S&P 500 as we opened lower and closed higher.  The Dow  ended the day down 12 points however.  The advance/declines were slightly negative and the volume was light.  The summation index is still heading lower.  Early weakness today was bought and then we moved sideways for the rest of the session.  Simply waiting for the market reaction to tomorrows employment report.  There is nothing to read into todays market action.  Tomorrow will be the key.  GE was off 1/4, volume was nothing special.  Gold dropped another dozen as the US dollar continues to rise.  Foreshadowing a decent jobs report tomorrow?  Who knows?  The XAU shed another 2 1/2, while GDX lost 3/4.  Volume was good.  Quite a negative week so far for gold and the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The price action today for the major indices implies higher prices tomorrow.  But it isn't 100% accurate, as nothing is in this game.  I do think that tomorrow will set the tone for which direction we're going to go here.  You can make the case either way, which is why it is probably best to simply wait it out and see where we go.  As always, the markets reaction to the numbers and not the numbers themselves will tell the story.  We've basically waited all week for this and hopefully it doesn't disappoint.  Asia was higher and Europe slightly lower last night.  All eyes on the jobs report and we'll close out the week tomorrow.

Back to the upside as we are in a holding pattern until Friday.  The Dow rose 112 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still moving lower.  Still just waiting on a break out higher or lower for the S&P.  The catalyst could be the employment report on Friday.  Plenty of time left in the October option cycle.  I'd expect tomorrow to be a wait and see affair.  GE was flat and the volume was average.  Gold and the US dollar both finished the session little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on good volume.  No real downside follow through to yesterdays gold debacle.  However the damage was so severe that perhaps we're temporarily sold out there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK but still tired and still not up to par.  The technical indicators for the major averages remain mid-range with the exception of the TRAN, which are overbought.  Perhaps the TRAN is leading the way here but time will tell on that.  So far, the recent rally in the TRAN hasn't led the INDU higher.  However we all know that the market goes where it wants.  The relative out performance of the small stocks is another positive that has yet to manifest itself.  I'll remain on the sidelines for now.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight.  We'll continue to watch the overnight action.

Lower again today as the Dow fell 85 points on what passes for average volume these days.  The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 negative.  This should get the summation index heading lower.  Just waiting for Friday in my opinion here.  Plenty of time in the October option cycle to make a trade if you're so inclined.  I'm on the sidelines until a decent signal occurs.  GE was off 1/8 and volume picked up to the downside.  The big news was with gold today as it got clobbered.  The precious metal futures dropped 40 bucks as we sliced through the $1300 level.  The US dollar was higher but not by enough to justify a $40 drop in gold.  Not sure what is going on here.  The XAU lost 8 2/3, while GDX fell 2 1/2.  Volume was off the charts heavy on the selling.  It appears that everyone headed for the exits at the same time.  The usual positive seasonal bias for gold did not show up this year.  Mentally I'm doing OK.  Feeling tired but that is to be expected as I recuperate.  The market is trying to figure out which way to go here.  The small stocks are acting relatively better so a bullish outcome is probably to be expected eventually.  They continue to trade above their 50 day moving averages, while the big cap indices are below the 50 day.  Just an observation there, may not mean anything.  Asia was slightly higher overnight, with Europe having a better upside performance.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We begin the week and the month with a loss, as the Dow fell 54 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is trending sideways.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are either mid-range or overbought.  No trades in mind at the moment.  Fridays jobs report will be the headline for the week.  GE was up a couple cents and the volume was pretty light.  Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU dropped almost 2 points, while GDX shed 1/2.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm doing so-so, physically I've still got a ways to go.  I'm not completely back to normal so the trading will have to wait.  I don't see a solid signal here for the SPY one way or the other.  I do think that we will get to new all time highs for the S&P 500 before the end of the year.  But the timing is the question.  Perhaps the market will simply be on hold until Friday.  That's just a guess and guesses are not what we base our trades on.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on what happens tonight.

The blog will return.  I was taken by ambulance to the emergency room on the night of the 12th.  I was released from the hospital on the 20th.   I'm home now but the recovery will take some time.  We all know that the market doesn't care.  As always, stick with the technical indicators as best you can.  When I get my wits about me, the blog will be back to normal.  We live in the unpredictable trading world but there is one thing you can be sure of.  Be ever so thankful for your family and friends because they will be worth more than any amount of money that you'll make playing this game.

The Dow roared back today with a one day reversal to the upside.  It gained 239 points on better than lately volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still heading lower.  GE was up 3/8 on good volume.  Gold was up $7 on the futures and the US dollar was lower.  The XAU rose 3 1/3, while GDX added 2/3.  Volume was good.  My apologies for the short blog with my usual comments but I am ill today.  I can say that volatility is back and I think we will have to bounce around before we move to new all time highs.  I am looking at the October SPY calls.  But I am very under the weather and would not put much stock in what I'm thinking under these physical conditions.  Hopefully I'll be back to normal tomorrow.

We finally got the break out of the months long congestion zone but it wasn't to the upside as I expected.  The Dow got clobbered today and fell 394 points on what passes for better than average volume these days.  The buyers disappeared.  The advance/declines were 17 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading back down.  The market recently tried to get through the zero line on the McClellan oscillator and it did but barely.  It has now quickly reversed course.  We're also short term oversold in a hurry.  It looks like the possible negative RSI divergences in the small caps are now valid.  We are also practically right back at the uptrend line in the S&P 500 that began in February.  The breakout in the S&P was the 2100 level and I did expect that level to hold.  But after the carnage today, I'm going to have to rethink that idea.  GE fell 7/8 on good volume.  It looks like GE was an early leader all the way along.  We're back to the 200 day moving average here.  Gold fell $9 on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU shed 5 3/4, while GDX lost 1 1/2.  Volume was heavy.  The positive seasonal factor for gold is not happening this year so far.  However the negative seasonal factor for stocks seems to be now in effect.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The talk today was about the Fed but the Fed has been talked about for weeks.  There may be some trouble in the bond market that we're not aware of but something the market may already know.  It will all be figured out eventually.  The fact that we have already almost reached the near term support for the S&P, probably doesn't bode well.  The weekly charts here have just rolled over on the technical indicators.  I had thought that the double support from the breakout point and the uptrend line from February would contain things if we broke down in the S&P.  I will have to rethink that theory.  I had planned on getting some SPY October calls if we reached 2100 on the S&P.  After today that idea doesn't look so good.  I'm not exactly sure what is going on here but there is a chance that this could be a one day wonder as well.  There are numerous questions at the moment without answers.  Obviously the volatility that had been missing for the past couple of months has returned.  Option premiums will be higher but the potential for profits will return as well.  There will be plenty of work to do over the weekend.  Only a week to go in the September option cycle.  I don't think that I'll be attempting a trade there next week but who knows?  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.   

Muddling through another day as the Dow fell 46 points on better volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still trying to turn back up.  Directionless is probably the best way to describe the past couple of months.  It appears that the market needs some kind of stimulus to get things moving one way or another.  Only 6 days to go in the September option cycle.  No good trading signal that I can see as of now.  GE was off a couple cents on average volume.  Gold fell $7 on the futures and the US dollar had a slight gain.  The XAU lost 1 3/4, while GDX shed 2/3.  Volume was good.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I still feel that we are going to move higher here but at this rate anything could happen.  I do notice some potential negative RSI divergences on some of the small cap indices.  But they are only potential unless we break down from here.  Something will eventually get things going here but until then, it's more of the same.  It has been one of the least volatile times for the market in quite some time.  It makes for tough trading.  I'm on the sidelines still for now.  Asia was higher overnight with Europe mixed.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Another attempt at a sell off but the market keeps coming back.  The Dow did fall 12 points on light volume but it was off more for much of the day.  The advance/declines were positive and the NASDAQ was higher.  The summation index is turning back up.  It is a market that seems to want to go higher.  So the grind upward is probably going to continue.  However with the lack of volatility, it makes the trading tough.  There simply isn't enough price movement to get the option premiums moving a lot.  I'll continue to wait for a decent signal.  Hopefully sometime soon.  GE was flat on lighter volume and came off of its lows as well.  Gold was down around $5 on the futures as the US dollar was up slightly.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  The same coming off of the lows pattern prevailed here as well.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market is attempting to break out above the months long consolidation but we'll need to see some volume for it to be real.  The TRAN had a good session today and perhaps that will lead things higher.  We are up at near term resistance there.  More short term overbought than oversold for the major stock indices.  It doesn't look like I'll be attempting a trade in the September option cycle at this rate.  You can't try and press things sometimes in the game because it usually leads to trouble.  I will do my best to remain patient and wait for what I deem a decent signal.  It isn't easy.  Europe was higher and Asia generally lower overnight.  Not much important economic data before we finish the week and it looks like the trading for me will be in a holding pattern.  We'll keep an eye on things overnight as usual.  

The grind higher continues as the Dow rose 46 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is trying to turn around here.  If successful, we'll be moving to new all time highs again and perhaps the 2200 level on the S&P 500.  No good technical signal to trade here but I do think that the path of least resistance is higher.  It appears that weaker economic data will be interpreted as positive by the stock market for now.  Eventually if the data continues to be light, that relationship will change.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume was good.  GE is well off of its recent highs and not a good clue as to what the overall market is doing.  Gold rallies on the drop in the dollar.  The precious metal futures were up over 20 bucks as the dollar fell a full point.  The XAU gained almost 5, while GDX added 1 1/3.  Volume was good.  ABX was higher as well and it doesn't appear that it will fall back below $17 and give us a shot at a call trade there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  All the players are back at their desks and it did not appear as though there were a lot of sellers.  Only 8 days remain in the September option cycle.  If we get a valid signal, perhaps a short term trade will be in the picture.  Otherwise we'll roll out to October.  Volatility has shrunk again.  That implies higher prices in the near term.  I do not see anything on the horizon to negate that view.  Even though we are in a seasonal weak period for stocks, they don't go lower every year.  perhaps things can hold up into the expiration.  That's a guess as usual.  Asia was higher overnight and Europe generally slightly lower.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

We finally got the employment number today and the Dow rallied 72 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive.  The summation index will be trying to turn around again.  We jumped sharply in the first half hour and were never able to get back to that level.  But with the breadth as good as it was, you cannot argue with the gain.  The overall market continues to be positive and there won't be any sustainable decline as long as that is the case.  The trading trouble here is that with the muted day to day action, it's hard to make any money by speculation.  Writing the options continues to be the most profitable idea for now.  GE was up a few cents and the volume was light.  Gold found a bid on the weaker jobs numbers and the futures rose over $10.  However the US dollar came off of its lows and ended positive for the day as well.  The XAU added 3 1/3, while GDX gained 7/8.  Volume was good.  I'll try the ABX call trade again if we get back below 17.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We got the expected upside today but it certainly wasn't anything robust.  Perhaps all the players haven't returned just yet.  Things should get more back to normal after Labor day.  There's one less day left in the 2 week September option cycle with the holiday.  The risk will be elevated.  October has an extra week on the option cycle, so the premiums will be inflated.  The trading is never easy.  The volume on the rallies has been light and we never like to see that.  The short term technical picture for the S&P is now mixed.  The Bollinger bands have now contracted and we have yet to see a big move.  My guess is that it is still coming.  The small caps continue to act well but they are overbought.  This will not last forever.  We are in a weak seasonal period.  I do not know what the catalyst will be for a break from this trading range but I'm going to try and be ready to take advantage of it.  I'll be going over the charts over the long holiday weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

The market again tried to sell off today but made it all the way back.  The Dow finished with a gain of 18 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were  slightly negative.  The summation index is still trending lower.  You just get the feeling that the S&P will be moving higher tomorrow with the recent price action.  The daily candlestick chart now shows 2 hammers at the lower Bollinger band.  The short term technical indicators are mid-range or a bit lower.  I didn't purchase any SPY calls but I certainly think that is the correct play for tomorrow.  We'll see what happens after the employment numbers are released.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was pretty good.  Not sure what to make of that.  Gold was up 5 bucks on the futures as the US dollar was lower ahead of tomorrow.  The XAU rose 3 1/8, while GDX added 7/8.  Volume was heavy.  I did place an overnight order for some ABX September calls after checking the charts last night.  The double top price objective in ABX had been met and the technicals were blown out to the downside.  My order wasn't filled.  ABX was up about 3/4.  I may revisit this idea if we head back below $17.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It is simply a matter of waiting for the jobs report and the market reaction now.  There really isn't anything else to say.  If there would have been a decent signal here, I would have attempted a trade in the SPY.  But I erred on the side of caution.  I do still expect us to move higher in the near term.  We'll see.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Some more downside today as the Dow fell 53 points on better volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still trending lower.  We were off over 100 points during the session but made a comeback.  Still waiting on Fridays employment report.  But the volume did pick up today so perhaps the players are returning earlier than usual.  If we do get some weakness tomorrow, I might try the SPY September calls.  I'll be looking things over again tonight.  We are short term oversold on some of the major stock indices.  GE was lower by 1/8 and the volume picked up here as well.  Gold fell another $5 or so on the futures.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU dropped 1 2/3, while GDX shed 3/8.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The Bollinger bands on the S&P 500 are implying a big move in the near future.  My guess will be that it will happen on Friday.  Which way things go is the question.  What I don't want to do here is make a trade just for the sake of making one.  To me things are leaning towards a bullish resolution to the long sideways congestion that we've endured throughout the summer.  It isn't the best signal to go long before Friday but I do believe the odds lean that way.  I'll have to look things over tonight.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  My guess is that Thursday will be a wait and see affair.

Lower today in a listless market as the Dow fell 48 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index grinds lower.  The Bollinger bands on the S&P 500 are contracting again and that implies a big move coming.  I do think that we will see a positive resolution to the 2 month long sideways congestion but that's a guess on my part.  End of the month tomorrow and the employment report on Friday are on the horizon.  I may try the SPY September calls if we continue to drift lower into Friday.  GE was flat on the day and the volume light.  Gold was off $13 on the futures as the US dollar continued higher.  The XAU dropped over 5 points and GDX shed 1 1 /3.  Volume was heavy.  Liquidation in the gold shares needs to run its course here shortly or it could turn into more of a rout than it already is.  We've worked off what overbought conditions there were and are now stuck in oversold mode.  The combination of a stronger dollar and potential rise in interest rates in the US has ended the gold rally.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A bit more volatility lately but it's nothing like we've seen before.  I think we'll probably be on hold until Friday.  Any September option cycle trade should probably be put on before then.  The market will most likely take our cues form the jobs report.  The favored scenario here would be a drift lower into the close of Thursday to set up the SPY calls.  The market rarely cooperates though.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight.  Traders there are also awaiting the employment report.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

We started the week off with a pop to the upside as the Dow gained 107 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index will be trying to turn around once again.  No sellers today but we can never trust a light volume rally.  We were short term oversold on the S&P 500 and that has now been relieved.  The small stocks were under performers for a change and that is something to keep an eye on.  It is probably too late for the SPY September calls on the short term basis.  If we had early week weakness we could have tried the calls.  But todays price action probably negates that.  GE was up 1/8 and the volume was light.  Gold was little changed today as was the US dollar.  The XAU gained 1 1/8, while GDX was flat.  Volume was about average.  Oversold for gold and the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Although I'd probably like to wait until after Labor day for the next trade, we do have the jobs report on Friday.  That will most likely be a market mover.  You will want to have your position on before the release.  I suppose that I'll wait to see how the rest of the week plays out before deciding what to do.  If we continue higher on low volume the rest of the week it may pay to go the other way.  But we'll just have to wait and see.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight with the exception of the NIKK that rallied sharply.  It is the last week of summer and things may get even slower than they were today.  

Volatility returned as we got a one day reversal to the downside.  We opened up over 100 points and then fell down over 100 points.  The Dow finished the session with a loss of 53 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still trending lower.  Yellen did her blabbering and the market viewed it as negative.  However we all know that a lot can change between now and the middle of September.  The small stocks continue to show strength and as long as that occurs there will be no major decline in my opinion.  I'm now looking at the SPY September calls.  Right now I think we're setting up for a rally in the beginning of September.  That's my guess today.  GE remains flat.  GE can be traded but you really have to pick your spots.  It can go directionless for quite a while sometimes.  Gold came from well off of its highs to finish little changed on the day.  The US dollar rallied on Yellens comments.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses and the volume was good.  It was interesting how gold and the gold shares this week telegraphed the comments from the Fed today.  I suppose the markets are always speaking if you know how to listen.  But we also know that the next time around just the opposite could happen.  It's the nature of the game.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So we got a reversal in the S&P.  Does that mean we're in for a hefty decline?  I don't think so.  My leaning right now is that we are setting up for some upside here soon.  Oversold on the S&P 500 and overbought on the VIX.  The seasonal tendency is for a decline in stocks here but I'm thinking that the beginning of September will go higher.  I've seen it happen before.  I could be wrong but I'm going to look to buy weakness next week.  That is the game plan as of the moment.  That could change after the review of the charts this weekend.  Perhaps some players will return to action next week ahead of Labor day as the employment report will be out on Friday.  Plenty of economic data before then as well.  Plus we'll have the beginning and end of the months to deal with.  So maybe things will finally start to pick up and the summer doldrums will come to a close.  For now it's a late summer Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Another day of the summer doldrums as the Dow fell 33 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index continues lower.  Waiting on the blabbing of Fed chairwoman Yellen tomorrow.  I do think that we'll get a positive resolution to the recent price action despite the rollover of the short term technical indicators.  There's no volume and no conviction to price action this summer.  The TRAN was negative today but the small stocks continue to hold up rather well.  As long as that is the case, there won't be any drastic downside moves in my mind.  We'll see.  GE was flat and the volume very light.  Gold dropped another 5 bucks on the futures.  The US dollar was little changed.  The XAU was up 1 1/8, while GDX gained 1/3.  Volume was average.  The gold shares have rolled over and are short term oversold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Thought about getting some SPY September calls today but did not pull the trigger.  I'm still trying to wait for a decent signal or until after Labor day.  The VIX is overbought short term at the moment.  We'll get some Fed speak tomorrow and that will be the motivation for a day.  But what about next week?  This is why it is always best to stick to the technicals.  They look like they could turn around to the upside for the S&P and at the same time roll back down for the VIX.  But nothing is guaranteed.  We could also get more oversold as well.  I'm on the sidelines still for now.  Europe and Asia were both negative overnight.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Finally some price movement as the Dow fell 65 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index has been trying to turn around but is heading back down again.  The S&P 500 did form a coil yesterday on an intra-day basis.  We've broken lower from there.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over as well.  We are also in a seasonally weak time period for stocks.  Do I think this is the beginning of a significant downside move?  No.  GE  was off a penny and the volume was light.  Gold fell $18 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit higher.  The gold shares got creamed as well.  The XAU dropped 8 1/2, while GDX shed over 2 points.  Volume was very heavy.  We are now seeing a break in gold and the gold shares that was long overdue.  It isn't the seasonal time of year to expect this but it is happening none the less.  We'll see how far it goes.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  One day doesn't make a trend so we will have to see where we go from here.  Perhaps it is some front running selling ahead of whatever Yellen has to say on Friday.  The drop in gold today also seems like an exit before the fact.  Sometimes these things just build on themselves.  Perhaps the inability to get above the zero line in the McClellan oscillator is more than I think.  Time will tell.  There is still plenty of time in the September option cycle for a trade.  I may have to move over to the SPY calls if we get oversold on the short term.  The volume is still very light right now and I do not think that any move can be trusted.  I'm also still in the mode of waiting until after Labor Day to trade again as well.  There's plenty to ponder.  Europe was slightly higher and Asia mixed overnight.  I'd expect Thursday to be a lightly traded affair.  

We started out with a pop to the upside and then sold off for the rest of the session.  The Dow finished with a gain of 17 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trying to turn around once again.  The overall market remains stronger than the Dow and there won't be any major decline as long as that remains the case.  The small stocks also continue to outperform.  I suppose the idea to wait to trade until after Labor Day is still in place for me.  GE was off almost a dime and the volume picked up a bit.  No trades here for now.  Gold was little changed as was the US dollar.  I suppose gold and the dollar are just waiting for the Yellen speech on Friday before the next move gets underway.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We had a chance for something decent to the upside when the day began but spent the day sputtering lower.  This summertime price movement or lack thereof has been frustrating to say the least.  It makes for even more difficult trading than usual.  The sidelines hasn't been a bad place to be.  I'm guessing we'll just wallow around until Friday.  Europe was generally higher and Asia generally lower overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.       

Back and for the was the theme of the day as the Dow fell 23 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index is still grinding lower.  We did see volatility pick up a little today but with the light volume, whipsaws are more likely.  It is still summer doldrums activity and we may have to wait for after Labor Day to get things back to normal.  More Fed watching than usual with Yellen blabbing on Friday.  There is nothing else for the markets to go on for now.  GE was up a few cents on light volume.  Gold was down a few bucks on the futures and the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU fell 2 points, while GDX lost 1/2.  Volume was light.  The talk of the Fed rising interest rates is putting a lid on gold for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The small stocks are still relatively stronger here so I expect a positive resolution to the recent market indecision.  I'd like to see a move up to 2200 on the S&P 500 and then I would seriously consider the SPY September puts.  At the moment we remain short term overbought for the S&P 500.  For now I'll stay on the sidelines and wait for a signal one way or the other.  Europe was generally lower and Asia was mixed overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the action or lack of, overnight.

We began the day with a quick 100 point drop and spent the rest of the session trying to recover.  The Dow fell 45 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index has tried to turn back up but it is grinding lower.  The positive expiration week bias did not manifest itself.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 remain overbought.  Any selling has been met with buyers lately.  When volatility arrives it quickly is vanquished.  This has been one of the slowest trading summers in recent years.  The sidelines has not been a bad place.  GE was off over 1/8 on light volume.  Still hanging around in the vicinity of its 50 day moving average.  Gold was off around a dozen on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU was down 3 points, while GDX shed 3/4.  Volume was pretty light.  Gold has yet to have the positive seasonal bias for August/September kick in.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I am looking at the SPY September puts but I can't be predisposed to that trade.  The market has had ample opportunity to fall here technically and it keeps coming back.  We are having a problem getting back up through the zero line on the McClellan oscillator.  However if we can clear that hurdle, higher prices will be in the forecast.  I thought that we would hit new all time highs by expiration and that was wrong.  This is really a frustrating summer doldrums type atmosphere and has been for weeks.  Eventually we will break out of it but I certainly don't know when.  Perhaps when all the players return after Labor day.  But the market will go and do what it wants regardless.  We'll get some economic data out next week but not a lot.  We're also moving into the September option cycle and premiums will be high.  So from here it looks like sitting things out will be the prudent course of action.  Or inaction.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight but the NIKK had a slight gain.  I'll be going over the charts this weekend as usual.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest. 

More of the summer doldrums as the Dow gained 23 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  This should move the summation index back to sideways.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow again.  I'm thinking we'll see new all time highs in the next couple of days.  The short term technical indicators remain overbought for the major stock indices.  Option expiration tomorrow.  The grind higher continues.  GE was up a few cents and the volume remains light.  Gold was up $8 as the US dollar was lower yet again.  The XAU rose 1 1/2, while GDX gained 1/3.  Volume was very light.  Gold has not risen as much as you would expect given the solid drop in the dollar.  That isn't a good sign for the gold bulls.  But we'll have to see how it plays out in the days to come.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The action in the TRAN today says higher prices are coming.  That's my interpretation of things here.  Perhaps a run up to 2200 on the S&P 500 and then we'll assess where to go after that.  I'm still thinking that perhaps waiting for August to get over with could be the best course of action.  I'm still waiting for some type of signal or divergence to initiate the next trade.  You can't force things.  But I am considering the SPY September puts and will keep an eye out that way.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight with the exception of the NIKK again.  We'll see how the expiration goes tomorrow.

We had a one day reversal to the upside today as the Dow opened lower and closed higher.  The most watched index gained 21 points on light volume.  the advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is still heading lower.  The Fed minutes were really neither bullish or bearish but the market did rise after the release.  Although the short term technical indicators did roll over, they now appear to be on the way back up.  Had we closed near the lows on the session it would be another story.  Today the NASDAQ under performed and that will be something to keep an eye on.  We have not seen that in a while.  I think we'll grind higher near term into the expiration.  I'll be keeping an eye on the SPY September puts but maybe we should just let the month of August pass.  GE was up a dime and the volume was very light.  Gold was off a few bucks on the futures as the US dollar finished flat.  The XAU lost 1 2/3, while GDX shed 3/8.  Volume was a bit above average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Just a couple of days left for the August option cycle.  It has the feel of a run up into the close on Friday.  That's my guess at the moment.  Still a pretty quiet summertime atmosphere though.  The grind higher makes for tough trading as the time premium is constantly working against you.  That is usually the case but becomes more exaggerated with slow markets.  The volatility that did pick up early today quickly dissipated and we closed near the low there.  Expect higher prices near term.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower in overnight trading.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

We got some selling today as the Dow fell 84 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index tried to head back up but it has turned around again.  We closed on the low of the day and that's bearish.  No positive option expiration bias yet.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled over.  Could this be the beginning of a meaningful decline?  Perhaps, but I doubt it.  There aren't any negative divergences that I can see on the daily charts yet.  The sentiment has gotten more bullish here lately though.  I'm going to keep an eye on the SPY September puts.  GE was off a nickel and the volume was light.  We finally closed below the 50 day moving average here.  Gold was up a few bucks and the US dollar had a pretty good drop.  The XAU and GDX both had slight fractional losses on very light volume despite the drop in the dollar.  That is not bullish price action for the gold shares.  I'm not sure what to make of it.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We got a little bump in volatility today.  Could the summer doldrums be coming to an end?  We are entering a period of seasonal weakness for stocks.  However the volume has been so anemic that it is hard to exactly know what is going on.  Major players are still on vacation.  One day doesn't make a trend though and we'll have to see how the market reacts to the Fed minutes tomorrow.  There was general weakness around the globe last night.  Does the market know something that we don't? 

Another day another new all time high as the Dow gained 59 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trying to turn back up.  Still simply the summer doldrums here as we drift through August.  Option expiration week and plenty of economic data due out.  Plus we get the Fed minutes on Wednesday.  So there is potential for market movement but the trend remains a grind higher.  No trades for me until the week is over is the idea for now.  GE was flat on light volume.  Hugging the 50 day moving average here.  Gold was up a few bucks on the futures as the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume.  Light volume is the theme all the way around.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm starting to hear a little more bullishness in the press, so I will continue to look at the SPY September puts.  Overbought and staying that way for the major indices.  At this rate it appears that we will reach the 2200 level on the S&P 500 soon.  That is a nice round number that perhaps we'll see some selling.  However unless there is some kind of external shock to the market, higher is the word.  Europe and Asia were higher with the exception of Japan.  Lots of data out tomorrow and then the Fed on Wednesday.    

No follow through for the Dow today as it lost 37 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is slowly trending lower.  The NASDAQ was positive as the small stocks are still showing good relative strength.  As long as that continues the trend remains up.  It is however, a light volume grind.  Retail sales were flat and that scared the buyers away for a day.  Option expiration week is coming up and I'd expect higher prices with the usual positive bias.  GE was off a nickel on lighter volume.  Gold was off $9 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit lower as well.  The XAU shed 1/2, while GDX was flat.  Volume was light.  Gold fell despite a drop in the dollar and weak economic news.  That isn't bullish.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A very slow summer Friday is what we got today.  Could we simply slog ahead like this until Labor day?  I suppose it's possible.  Volatility has collapsed and the triple digit price moves are few and far between.  A tough trading environment.  I've been on the sidelines and will remain there until we get some kind of decent signal.  Overbought and staying there again on the S&P 500 short term technical indicators.  I'm still looking at the SPY September puts at some time in the next option cycle.  But for now it is simply wait and see.  Asia was higher and Europe slightly lower overnight.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend but that won't change the fact the we are in the severe summer doldrums.  Enjoy the weekend.

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 117 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still in a sideways trend but leaning lower.  Just how long we continue this light volume levitation is the question in my mind.  I'm looking at the SPY September puts now.  As always timing is the key and with this slow summer market atmosphere it doesn't get any easier.  It's probably best to let the August expiration pass and then look to make a trade.  That's the idea for now.  GE barely moved but the volume came back to life.  Still holding above the 50 day moving average.  Gold fell $8 on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The light volume drift upward continues.  New all time highs for several of the major stock indices.  Not a lot of press about it though.  Until we get some sort of negative divergence on the technical indicators, the best place for me is on the sidelines.  I do not expect some kind of significant upside rally from these levels at the moment.  The environment is summer doldrums levels of inactivity.  I'll look for the small stocks to stop leading the way higher for a clue as to when this thing is about to roll over.  For now patience is still the right choice.  It isn't the best of trading worlds right now, even for the calls.  Some markets in Asia were closed overnight but mostly to the upside.  Europe was higher.  We'll finish up the week tomorrow.   

Lower today as the Dow fell 37 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is heading sideways.  We're still below the zero line on the McClellan oscillator.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over for the S&P 500.  But there is no sense of urgency to what we have going on here.  You could have tried to get some SPY August puts in the past couple of days but the needed volatility just isn't there yet.  The action is more of a meandering stream to nowhere.  It has been a slight drift higher but for most part nothing much.  Better to be writing as opposed to buying.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was extremely light.  Gold was up $5 on the futures as the US dollar was lower again.  The XAU added 1 2/3, while GDX was up 1/2.  Volume remains light.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It appears the prudent course of action here will be inaction.  Time is running out for the August option cycle.  Even with the extra week for August there has been only one decent set up so far that I missed.  I would certainly like to try another trade here soon but if things don't line up properly you cannot force it.  After the volatile Augusts that we've had in recent years, so far this one has been rather tame.  It's possible that could change but I don't see it anytime soon.  I could be wrong.  But it seems like the market is on vacation.  Asia and Europe were both generally slightly lower.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Another lazy day in the summer as the Dow gained 3 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  We were up over 50 points during the session but fell back.  The summation index is heading sideways.  We haven't made it back above the zero line for the McClellan oscillator but one good upside day will do it.  There is a potential to stall here as well.  What we do have is a lack of volatility and a tough trading environment.  The small stocks continue to show the good relative strength.  As long as that is the case, I don't see any major move lower.  GE was up 3 cents and the volume was light.  Still holding onto the 50 day moving average here.  Gold was up 5 bucks on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX again had slight fractional gains on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We're short term overbought again for the S&P 500 which has been the story for most of the August option cycle thus far.  We are hugging the top of the Bollinger band as well.  A case can be made for the SPY August puts.  However the timing would have to be just about perfect and that is a tough way to go.  Yes, things could roll over here but they could just as easily remain doldrums sideways.  I've been on the sidelines for a while and it appears I'll stay that way.  I will take a closer look at things tonight though.  European markets were higher led by a breakout in the DAX.  Asia was mixed.  I expect we'll continue the slow summertime atmosphere on Wednesday. 

Just another summer Monday in 2016 as the Dow fell 14 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving sideways for now.  The summer doldrums in full swing.  We are getting convergence of the Bollinger bands on the S&P 500.  This implies a big move is coming up.  As usual, which way is the question.  I'm looking at the SPY August and September puts again.  However with the slowness and lack of volatility lately, any trade has to be timed to perfection.  Also we're running out of time in the August option cycle with only 9 days left.  GE was off a penny and the volume was light.  Gold was off few bucks on the futures and the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX both had slight fractional gains on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A check of the charts over the weekend still shows a short term overbought condition for the S&P 500.  We did break out on Friday to the upside but there was no follow through today.  The McClellan Oscillator is trying to get back above the zero line.  If we can't get above that, there may be a chance that we will roll over and the SPY put trade will work.  However there is also an old wall street saying, never sell short a dull market.  This is about the dullest market that we've seen in quite a while.  I'm still leaning towards the put side though.  The NIKK had a strong session overnight.  The rest of Asia and Europe was slightly higher.  Not a lot of economic data due until Friday when we get inflation and retail sales numbers.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.   

A better jobs report helped for a better stock market as the Dow soared 191 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The S&P 500 closed at a new all time high.  It also closed on its high which bodes well for the open on Monday.  The summation index is trying to turn back around to the upside.  Higher prices expected here in the short term and I simply missed this trade.  Perhaps I should have just purchased the SPY August calls yesterday at the price they were offered but retrospect is always correct.  It's where we go from here that counts.  Perhaps a drift higher here will set up a SPY put trade before the August expiration.  GE was up 1/8 and the volume was light.  Still above the 50 day moving average.  Gold fell on the better employment report.  The precious metal futures lost $25 as the US dollar gained as well.  The XAU dropped 3 1/4, while GDX shed a point.  Volume was good.  There's a potential double top here in gold that measures down to the $1250 level.  A solid break of $1310 would be the trigger.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  There's still 2 weeks to go in the August option cycle.  If we do get to a short term overbought condition next week, I may try the SPY August puts.  However the risk increases with each passing day.  We also cannot discount the possibility that we simply return to the quiet summer doldrums again next week because this market lately has been pretty low volume.  Add that to the lack of volatility and you can see how trying to trade here is tough.  Having just missed this SPY call set up doesn't do much for the confidence factor either.  But on we go as the market game continues.  Probably remaining patient until a decent set up will be the rule as it should be.  Europe and Asia were higher for the most part overnight.  I'll be checking the chart over the weekend as usual.  It's a summer Friday afternoon and time for a break.