Another lackluster session as the Dow lost a couple points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues lower.  I placed another order for the SPY August calls but it wasn't filled.  Perhaps if we get early weakness tomorrow I'll try again.  I do think that we're heading higher tomorrow.  The summer doldrums are in full effect and that makes for tougher than usual speculation.  Perhaps simply taking off the rest of the summer is the answer.  We should get some movement out of the jobs number but will it be enough to make attempting a trade worthwhile?  GE was up a few cents and the volume was light.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures and the US dollar was a bit higher as well.  If gold can get above $1375, it has room to run.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on the day.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It seems like the market is just sleepwalking this summer as we've been range bound for weeks.  August is generally a poor month for stocks so we will have to see where we go from here.  I'm expecting some upside tomorrow but after that, who knows?  Lack of volume and lack of volatility is not conducive to good trading opportunities.  I've been quite patient for a while and that has not been a bad thing.  I'll continue to wait for a decent technical set up before pulling the next trade.  I do think that we have one here for the very short term but my price objective for taking the risk was not met.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight but the US did not follow through.  We'll watch the markets reaction to the employment numbers tomorrow.

The Dow broke its losing streak today with a gain of 41 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is heading lower.  I do think that any weakness tomorrow could be bought for a short term trade.  I did place an overnight order for the SPY August calls but it wasn't filled.  It already may be too late for this trade as well since we have already moved higher off of the recent low.  So we'll see.  There is also a potential trade for the SPY August puts if we do move higher near term.  Today seemed like it was back to summer doldrums.  GE was up a few cents on very light volume.  Holding the 50 day moving average.  Gold was off $8 on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU was lower by 7/8 and GDX fell 1/3.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  There's a potential for a trade here but things will have to line up just right tomorrow.  The ideal scenario would be for some type of decline in order to purchase the SPY August calls.  I then anticipate higher prices on Friday regardless of the employment report.  That is what the technical set up looks to me right now.  One of the problems here though is that the lack of price movement and volatility is making the option premiums muted.  What I mean by that is that the price movement isn't doing much for the price of the SPY options.  That lowers the potential for profit either way.  However the risk of the trade and the time decay on the options continues regardless.  However if things do work out to the downside tomorrow, I'll probably attempt this trade.  Europe and Asia were both generally lower overnight.  We'll follow the market action tonight and see if we can put on the SPY August call trade tomorrow.   

A bit of volatility today as the Dow fell 90 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is now heading lower.  Could this be the beginning of a decline worth trading?  Perhaps.  But I will say that there will be a chance this week for a short term SPY call trade if you are nimble enough.  If we get a retest of todays lows before Friday, that would be the spot to get the SPY calls.  Hasn't happened yet.  However there is also a chance that we return to the summer doldrums and that would not be the conditions that we want for trading.  GE was off a dime and the volume was light.  Still above the 50 day moving average though.  Gold gained $11 on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU rose 1 1/4 and GDX added 1/3.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The Dow has been down 7 days in a row.  This will not last forever.  The relative strength of the small stocks also tells me that any drop here should be shallow.  I do think that if I get a chance in the next couple of days for the SPY call trade I'll try it.  It would strictly be a short term trade not to go past Monday.  If we get some weakness back towards the 2150 area on the S&P 500, that would be the time to look for the SPY August calls.  Once we get some upside, then we could look for the other side and perhaps try the SPY puts.  But you have to be quick and you have to pay attention.  I'm not exactly sure that I'm up to the task but we'll see how the market progresses from here.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P have rolled over.  We are still solidly above the 50 day moving average here.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight.  I would have thought that the market would be on hold until Fridays employment report but today changes that scenario perhaps.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

Another mixed bag to begin the month of August as the Dow fell 27 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues sideways.  The NASDAQ moved higher as the small stocks continue to outperform.  The summer doldrums are in full swing.  The short term technical indicators for the big caps are trying to roll over.  Not much else to report today.  waiting on Fridays jobs report.  GE was flat and the volume was lighter.  Oversold on the indicators here.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures today and the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU added 1 1/3, while GDX rose 1/3.  Volume was good.  We are now in the positive seasonal time period for gold.  However we are already back to overbought on the short term techncials.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  August hasn't been a good month for stocks lately.  We'll see how that unfolds this year.  There's still plenty of time to make a trade in the August option cycle.  I'm still looking at the SPY puts here at some point.  With the low volatility, I'm going to have to wait for some type of rise in prices before attempting to go short.  We'll see.  Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

We finished the week and the month of July with a loss of 24 points for the Dow.  The advance/declines were positive and the volume was above the summer average.  The summation index continues sideways.  GDP was less than expected but once again it did not have that much effect on the stock market.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow again.  That has been the theme for a while.  It has been a low volatility sideways affair.  The summer doldrums are in effect.  Overbought and staying that way.  Things will change, we just don't know when.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume remains good here.  GE obviously has not led the way down yet.  Even with its decline it is still above its 50 day moving average.  Gold caught a bid on the weak GDP report.  The precious metal futures rose $17.  The US dollar got slammed and fell over a point.  The XAU was up 2 1/2, while GDX added about 3/4.  Volume was average.  It appears that the pause here for the gold shares has completed.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  On to August.  The stock market overbought condition has carried on for quite some time.  As long as the small stocks continue with their relative strength, I don't see any major declines coming.  I could be wrong.  I don't see any divergences yet on the technical indicators for the major stock averages.  That said, I'd still like to try the SPY puts at some point in the August/September time period.  For now the trading remains lackluster, stuck in a trading range.  Patience here has served us well so far.  I suppose the next event will be the employment report due out in a week.  The earnings so far have been generally above the lowered expectations.  But nothing that has started an extended gain for stocks.  It is the traditional summer mode in my mind and the sidelines aren't necessarily a bad place to be.  Of course that will change in due time.  Plenty of charts to consider over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

More of the same today as the Dow fell 15 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is trending sideways.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow again.  It is a summertime drift as we approach the end of July.  The GDP report tomorrow could be a mover in my opinion and we'll get the end of the month as well.  I still believe that higher prices and new all time highs are in the near future.  GE was off a few cents on average volume.  Gold was up $8 on the futures as the US dollar was lower today.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on light volume.  We could move here tomorrow off of the GDP report as well.  A low number would be positive for gold and vice versa.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've been in a channel for the past couple of weeks for the S&P 500.  I expect this to be resolved any time now.  My guess is a break higher.  We are in the summer mode for the stock market at this time.  As I said before it is probably better to be writing the options now as opposed to outright speculation.  However, if we do push higher I will be looking at the SPY puts.  Foreign markets were generally lower.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Bouncing around today but little change for the Dow.  The most watched index fell a point or so on better volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is trending sideways.  The NASDAQ was stronger today and that is bullish.  As long as the small stocks are leading the way up, higher prices are in the near future.  The Fed came and went.  There were no surprises and that was expected.  The next market mover in my mind will be the GDP report due Friday.  I expect higher prices for stocks until something changes.  GE lost about 20 cents and the volume remains good on the decline.  Gold gained $20 on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  The Fed non event was a reason to rally for the precious metals.  The XAU rose 4 1/2, while GDX advanced 1 1/3.  Volume was good heading back up.  Maybe the pause in the gold shares is over but that remains to be seen.  We are approaching the favorable seasonal time period of August/September for gold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Sideways for the S&P 500 the past couple of weeks.  I do believe the resolution will be to the upside.  Still overbought on the short term technical indicators for the S&P.  It has been a summer market for the past 2 weeks as well.  Light volume, not much volatility and no huge price movements.  For now, I expect this condition to continue.  I am still considering the SPY puts in the future but would prefer to see another price breakout higher.  Plenty of time to do something in the August option cycle.  Earnings have been single stock drivers but not the overall market yet.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  Just a couple more trading sessions for the Month of July and we'll head into August.

A slight pickup in volatility today but nothing major.  The Dow fell 19 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is now trending sideways.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The small caps continue with the better relative strength.  As long as that is the case, I'll be looking for a positive resolution to the near term congestion.  We get the Fed tomorrow and that could provide the catalyst to send things higher for stocks.  GE was off over 1/8 on average volume.  The short term technicals have rolled over here but we are still above the 50 day moving average.  Gold was flat on the futures and the US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU was up 3 1/8, while GDX added 3/4.  Volume was average.  Gold and the gold shares taking a much needed rest for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Still in summer mode for the stock market as the volume remains on the light side.  I don't expect anything new from the Fed tomorrow and perhaps we'll see some buying when all is said and done.  Maybe the GDP report on Friday will get things moving.  That is what I'm guessing for the moment.  I would still like to get some SPY August or September puts when the time is right.  There's still plenty of time in the August option cycle.  But for now it seems like writing the options is a much better strategy than the outright speculation.  Patience remains the theme for now.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight with the exception of NIKK.  We'll see what happens with the Fed tomorrow.  

Lower to begin the week as the Dow fell 77 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  Lackluster is the best way to describe the action today.  The summation index may start to trend sideways after todays numbers.  The S&P 500 has simply moved sideways for the past 8 sessions.  The lack of selling in the small caps today tells me this is just a pause before we go higher.  But who knows?  Maybe we'll roll over here.  But I doubt it.  Just waiting on the Fed in my opinion.  GE was off 3/8 and the volume was good.  GE led the way up, could it lead the way back down?  Possibly but we'll know as time goes by.  Gold was off $8 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit lower as well.  The XAU shed 3 7/8, while GDX was lower by a point.  Volume was good.  A much needed rest here for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So we've gone sideways and now it's time to head one way or the other.  My guess is that we'll go higher to more new all time highs.  The Fed should be a non-event really.  There isn't a chance that there will be a change in rates this time around.  Some economic data due this week but the most important will be the first look at the 2nd quarter GDP report.  We should move from that on Friday.  That will also close out the month.  But first we need to get through the Fed.  Asia and Europe were slightly higher or little changed overnight.  We're in a holding pattern until the Fed announcement.  More of the summer doldrums tomorrow.

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 53 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  Overbought, no overhead resistance and summer market conditions.  There is no reason that we simply won't continue to move up.  Plenty of time in the August option cycle to make a trade.  GE was off 1/2 on the earnings and the volume was heavy.  GE did finish quite above the low of the day though.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over here.  Gold was off around $8 on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume.  A pause in the uptrend for now, which to me is a good thing looking out longer term.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  No reason we can't go higher here as the earnings are beating the lowered expectations for now.  We'll get the Fed next week but I don't expect any surprises.  Perhaps we can make it up to 2200 on the S&P but that's just a Friday afternoon guess and a nice round number.  Certainly not a lot of volume on the rise but as always, you can't argue with price.  Some would say that summer is the cause for the lack of participation but that might be the excuse going up or down.  I'm still going to try and wait for some kind of divergence or technical signal before attempting the next trade.  There is no hurry.  Europe and Asia were a bit lower overnight.  I'll be checking things out over the weekend as usual.  For now it's Friday afternoon in the lazy, hazy days of summer.  Time for a rest.

Lower today as the Dow fell 77 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still heading up.  Still overbought all the way around for the major stock indices.  The small stocks held up relatively better today so there is no reason for concern with regards to the uptrend.  It remains in place and there is nothing in the way of higher prices.  GE was off about 20 cents on good volume.  The earnings out tomorrow should provide movement in the stock.  I don't know what to expect there.  Gold bounced back a bit today.  The precious metal futures gained a dozen as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU rose 3 1/2, while GDX added about 7/8.  Volume was above average.  My opinion here is that gold and the gold shares taking a break here is a good thing for the longer term trend higher.  I could be wrong.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Again, this is the first week of a 5 week option cycle and there is no rush to do anything.  It has a summer doldrums feel to it and tomorrow should be more of the same.  We've got the Fed next week but I would not expect any surprises there either.  Patience is key at the moment.  We'll wait for some kind of set up before taking on the next trade, possibly in the beginning of August at this rate.  Japan and Chine were higher overnight, while Europe was mixed with small moves.  We'll close out the week tomorrow. 

Another day another new all time high as the Dow rose 36 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is heading up.  No change in the near term market outlook.  Higher prices are still in the forecast.  I sometimes think that perhaps I should just buy some SPY calls and for get about it.  But it is too late for that.  No overhead resistance for the Dow and the S&P.  GE was off a bit over 1/8 on average volume.  Still just waiting for Fridays earnings here.  Gold dropped over $15 on the futures, while the US dollar was only slightly higher.  The gold shares got clobbered.  The XAU lost 6 1/3 and GDX fell 1 2/3.  Volume was heavy.  The pause in the gold shares is here.  We'll see how far they drop because they were extremely overbought on all accounts.  I do not think it will last very long though.  The positive seasonal period of August/September is coming up.  Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well.  Quite a move since the fallout from the vote in England.  I certainly didn't expect it.  Earnings are coming in better than expected and that is providing legs for the rally.  I'm not sure how long this will last but it usually goes longer than anyone expects.  My idea is still the same.  Wait for some kind of negative divergence and then get some SPY puts.  Patience is still the word for now.  Europe was higher and Asia mixed last night.  We'll keep an eye on what transpires tonight.

A mixed bag today as the Dow was higher and the overall market lower.  The most watched index gained 26 on again light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still heading higher.  Summer mode here as the volume has dried up and the volatility is low.  The drift higher is in place for now.  The VIX is very low and higher prices are in my forecast for the near term.  GE was flat again on average volume.  A waiting game here for Fridays numbers.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures.  The US dollar had a good day, breaking above the near term resistance.  The XAU fell 1 2/3, while GDX was off 1/3.  Volume was light.  Time for a pause in the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The summer doldrums have arrived.  Light volume, not a lot of movement and players are on vacation.  We've got the Fed next week and I don't expect any surprises but you never know.  Plenty of time for now as I've mentioned in the August option cycle.  So now is the time to plan your next move.  I'm still leaning towards some SPY puts at some point between now and September.  I do think that we will grind higher though in the short term.  Once we put in some sort of top, I'll try the puts.  But for now patience is warranted.  Overseas markets were mixed again but the NIKK had a decent gain.  We'll keep an eye on things tonight.    

A quiet summer Monday as the Dow gained 16 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues to the upside.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  No change in the overbought technical condition.  I suspect that we will simply grind our way higher in the near term.  Earnings will provide the excuse for either direction.  Plenty of time in the August option cycle, so I'll be patient for now.  GE was basically flat and the volume was lighter.  Waiting on Fridays numbers here.  Gold futures were flat as was the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  Still overdue for a rest in the gold shares in my opinion.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not a lot of economic data out this week, mostly housing numbers.  So it should be a quiet time.  The market has done pretty good despite the worldwide turmoil.  That is bullish.  The media hasn't jumped on the new all time high bandwagon.  That is bullish as well.  Although the market is overbought, it can stay that way for an extended time during upturns.  That is what we are seeing right now.  Foreign markets were mixed overnight.  We'll keep an eye on overnight developments.

My apologies for the late post from Fridays market.  The Dow managed a 10 point gain on very light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly higher.  The summation index continues to the upside.  It was a mixed bag though, as both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ were lower.  No option expiration fireworks as the market was subdued.  Summer-like conditions prevailed with no volume.  Stocks remain overbought but I do think there is some more room on the upside before we take a breather.  GE was up 1/4 and the volume remained good here.  Earnings next week should be the next catalyst here.  Gold futures were flat but the US dollar had a good day.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  Which wasn't all that bad considering the rise in the dollar.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So we will roll into the August option cycle which contains and extra week.  The option premiums are high.  No hurry to put on a trade.  I expect that things will be quiet for the rest of July even with a Fed meeting towards the end of the month.  Stocks are extended here but there are no reasons to sell at the moment.  My idea now is to wait for some negative divergences and then take a look at the SPY puts.  I really think that it is too late for the calls unless we get a decent short term oversold condition and a buy signal.  But I doubt that is in the near term future.  Patience is paramount for now.  I'll be checking things out over the next couple of days before the Monday opening.  But I think for now the sidelines make sense.  Enjoy the rest of your weekend.

Another day another new all time high as the Dow gained 134 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The volume remains light but it is the summer and you cannot argue with price.  How high will we go here?  I certainly don't know that answer to that.  There is no overhead resistance.  There won't be any confirmation from the TRAN anytime soon though.  The bullish expiration bias is in full swing and there are no sellers to speak of.  Enjoy the ride.  GE was up 1/4 on OK volume.  GE has led the way here so we will keep a close eye on it.  Earnings due here in a week.  Gold lost over $10 on the futures and the US dollar was lower as well.  The haven trade seems to be unwinding.  The XAU was flat, with GDX slightly lower.  Volume was light.  Overdue for a pause/pullback on the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  No rush to trade here as the August option cycle has an extra week on it.  The summer doldrums haven't exactly kicked in here yet as we trend higher.  I suppose we could meander our way up to 2200 on the S&P and see what happens when we get there.  Absent some kind of external shock, earnings will be the story for the next few weeks.  The VIX has moved back down and we'll wait for some complacency before seriously looking at the SPY puts.  When you start to see the Dow on the evening news headlines, be ready to go the other way.  It is too late for the calls in my opinion but I could be wrong.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight.  The post will be late tomorrow as I have a previous commitment.  It may not come out until Saturday.  We'll close out the week with option expiration tomorrow. 

Not much to speak of today as the Dow rose 24 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index continues to the upside.  The small stocks were relatively weaker along with the overall market.  It felt like a summer trading day.  Overbought on all accounts now and extremely in some areas.  Some type of pause would be expected.  I'll be waiting patiently before trying the next trade.  GE was up a dime on average volume.  Gold bounced back 8 bucks and the US dollar was a bit weaker.  The XAU gained 3 1/4, while GDX added a point.  Volume was lighter than yesterday.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not much to report on the market front.  It was another new all time high for the Dow but we are barely hearing a peep from the mainstream media.  That probably means that this rally has room to go.  When everyone starts talking about the market, then you know we are at a meaningful top.  We are overbought all the way around on the technical indicators but that doesn't necessarily mean that a decline is imminent.  Perhaps some sideways chugging before we move higher.  That's a guess as usual.  We are going to let option expiration week pass and go from there.  Asia was slightly higher and Europe generally mixed overnight.  We'll keep an eye on things tonight and take it from there. 

Moving higher as the Dow gained 120 points on OK volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  There is no overhead resistance in the S&P 500.  Very overbought now but that doesn't seem to matter at the moment.  The Dow closed at a new all time high today as well.  There was little on the news about the S&P 500 yesterday, so we will have to see what happens with the Dow today.  When there isn't any major news coverage of the highest prices ever, we're heading higher.  When the Dow is plastered on every front page and website, then we are at the top.  I may have to reconsider my thinking on the SPY August/September puts.  GE was up a nickel on good volume.  Gold got whacked today and lost over $20 on the futures.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU lost 3 points, while GDX shed 1 1/4.  Volume was good.  Perhaps this is the start of the much needed rest in this area.  One day does not make a trend but if the stock market continues to move up, the luster will start to come off of gold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The positive expiration week bias seems to be taking hold this time around.  It has been quite a run since the turnaround after the vote in England to leave the EU.  In retrospect, it can be viewed as a final shake out in stocks before moving higher.  I certainly did not see that coming.  There's an extra week in the August option cycle so there is no rush to put a trade on.  Once again patience will be required.  Europe and Asia were both higher overnight again.  The world is back to putting money into stocks.  There is plenty of cash to go around as well.  Perhaps this market will go quite higher than anyone thinks.  We'll see.   

Moving higher as the Dow climbed 80 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The S&P 500 set a new all time closing high.  The caveat here again is the light volume.  I do not trust light volume rallies.  Other major indices are not close to setting new all time highs.  I do not think that this is the beginning of some huge push forward.  But you cannot argue with price.  My guess is that we'll be solid this week with the positive option expiration bias.  After that we will have to wait and see.  GE gained a penny on good volume.  We did finish well off the highs of the day here.  We did see a new yearly high here as well.  Gold was off  a few bucks on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU was up a point, while GDX was flat.  Volume was light.  Gold and the gold shares are due a rest.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The small stocks are doing OK here so I don't think we'll see an imminent collapse.  But I don't see a rip roaring move to the upside like we've seen since the sharp 2 day sell off a couple weeks ago.  A light volume drift higher would be the preferred scenario in my mind.  We are overbought on the technical indicators but it is not uncommon to stay that way.  I'm still looking out to the August and September SPY puts.  For now patience is required.  Asia and Europe had very good gains last night.  We were not as strong today as they were overseas.  We'll see if that trend continues.        

Powering higher as the Dow gained 250 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 8 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  We are within 2 points of an all time closing high in the S&P 500.  We will get there next week.  The jobs numbers were above expectations and we rallied from the start.  It was a broad advance for stocks.  Overbought and staying there.  We should get the positive expiration week bias to kick in as well.  With no overhead resistance for the S&P, we will have to see just how far this can go.  There will be plenty of divergences with other indices though.  The idea here is to let next week pass and then see where we are from there.  GE was up 1/3 on decent volume.  New yearly highs here.  Overbought as well but there's room to run.  Gold was up about $5 on the futures.  The US dollar finished the day off just a touch.  The strong employment report didn't bring the expected drop in gold and rally in the US dollar.  Not sure what to make of that.  The XAU rose 3 1/3, while GDX added 7/8.  Volume was good.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market is in rally mode.  The only caveat is the light volume.  With that in mind, I'm thinking that this could be a false upside breakout.  Usually you would like to see the small stocks lead the way higher and they are not near their all time highs.  Especially the RUT.  Perhaps they can catch up to the S&P 500 but it would take a lot of work in a short amount of time.  Or I could be wrong and that this is the start of a huge upside breakout that takes us a lot higher.  I really don't think so.  My guess is that things will slow down after the July option expiration next week.  We'll have to see how the media reacts to the new highs next week.  If it doesn't receive a lot of press, then I think we will go higher.  But if it is plastered all over the news and people are talking about it, then I will feel that it won't last that long.  That is simply my opinion.  The technical indicators are certainly more overbought than oversold on both a short and medium term basis.  But they are not at extremes.  It is important in my mind to watch the volume as we go higher.  If we do not see a pick up there, I will feel more confident about the August or September SPY puts.  It is something to keep an eye on.  I'll check all the charts again over the weekend.  It is a summer Friday afternoon.  Time to take a rest. 

A one day reversal back to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower.  It fell 22 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is moving up.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow with the small stocks leading the way.  This is a positive.  I still think that maybe we can make an attempt at new all time highs on the S&P before the July expiration.  Tomorrow will most likely be the key with the market reaction to the jobs report.  Still short term overbought on some of the technical indicators.  GE did touch a 52 week high today before falling back.  It was up a few cents on good volume.  Gold fell $5 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU dropped 3 points and GDX dipped a point.  Volume was above average.  Gold and the gold shares are overdue for a rest in my opinion.  Some consolidation would be a good thing for the longer term uptrend.  Some of the technical indicators here are over stretched.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So we'll get the employment report out of the way tomorrow and then what?  Earnings are coming up next.  Of course those will be stock specific but they always have the potential to be broader market movers.  I'm going to let the July expiration pass before attempting another trade.  Right now I'm looking at the August or September SPY puts.  The ideal scenario would be a light volume rise to new all time highs.  The market rarely cooperates though.  For now I'm on hold with the anticipation that we could see a slow down in trading and volatility after tomorrow.  European markets were higher overnight with Asia mixed.  We'll close out the week tomorrow. 

It was a one day reversal to the upside as the Dow opened lower and closed higher.  The most watched index climbed 78 points on better than lately volume.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 positive.  Just waiting for Friday in my opinion.  The summation index continues to the upside.  Bumping up against the near term resistance in the S&P 500.  I'm expecting that we'll get through.  Still short term overbought for some of the technical indicators, room to run on others.  GE was up almost 1/3 on average volume.  Close to a new yearly high here.  Gold was up $7 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU rose 3 1/3, while GDX gained 7/8.  Volume was good.  Gold and the gold shares have broken out to the upside from their consolidation zones and continue to attract capital.  Plenty overbought here though on both a short and medium term basis.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Was it just less than 2 weeks ago the world was consumed by the vote in England?  That seems to have left the markets radar in a hurry.  Tomorrow should be a wait and see game ahead of Fridays employment report.  My guess would be that we're heading higher regardless of the numbers.  Perhaps GE is leading the way here.  I do not have any trades in mind at the moment.  Europe and Asia were generally weaker overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

Lower to begin the week as the Dow fell 108 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 negative.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The summation index is still heading up.  We did come back from the lows of the session.  Probably just taking some money off the table ahead of Fridays jobs report.  But that's a guess as usual.  Still short term overbought on some of the short term technical indicators.  I'm still thinking that we will see new all time highs in the S&P 500 by the July expiration.  After that, who knows?  GE was off  a few cents on average volume.  Gold was up about $5 on the futures and the US dollar had a good day as well.  The XAU was up a point and GDX rose almost 2/3 on average volume.  We've broken out on the gold shares from the consolidation zone but the volume hasn't been all that spectacular.  We'll see how that plays out going forward.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A nice long weekend to forget about the last losing trade and now a fresh start.  My thinking right now is that I'm going to let the employment report get out of the way and look out to August and September.  That could change of course but that is the plan for now.  I expect that the market will slow down now after the English exit vote fiasco.  I could be wrong.  So the strategy for me here is to sit tight and wait for the next decent technical signal.  Europe and Asia were both lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

A slight gain today as the Dow rose 19 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues to go higher.  It was a lackluster session compared to the previous days in the week.  Traders headed out early for the long holiday weekend I suppose.  I dumped the SPY July puts that I had for an 80% loss.  Not good execution going in and really bad on the exit.  The market doesn't care.  You've just got to keep moving on.  Short term overbought now on some of the technical indicators for the major stock indices.  But the VIX has moved below the 16 level.  There is probably more rally to go here.  GE was basically flat today on OK volume.  Gold soared $25 on the futures today as the US dollar was weaker.  Beginning of the month and quarter money flows perhaps?  The XAU gained almost 5 points, while GDX added 1 1/3.  Volume was average.  We broke out to the upside from the months long consolidation in the gold shares.  There's no telling how long this can go on.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Another losing trade to lament as I certainly was not anticipating a sharp V shaped recovery in stocks this week.  The overall market was stronger that the Dow today so there is probably more room to run.  I was looking for new all time highs in the S&P a week or so ago.  Maybe we will get there this time.  One of the indicators that I use says there is still a long way to go before we get to an overly bullish sentiment.  The financial press is also still cautious and they are generally wrong.  So I'll be back to looking for higher prices into the July expiration.  Once again Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  I'll have to regroup over the weekend as my confidence is now down after this latest trading debacle.  There are 9 days to go in the July option cycle.  The employment report next Friday should be the next major market mover.  A long summer holiday weekend is up next.  Time for a break.

The market continues to rally as the Dow gained 235 points on good volume to close out the month.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  We are short term overbought no so I decided to hold onto my losing SPY July put trade for another day in hopes of at least some pullback.  This trade is going to be a 70%-80% loser.  It looks like we are going to make a run at new all time highs at this rate.  What we are seeing here is a classic V bottom and I certainly didn't expect that.  This trade felt wrong from the start and that is something to put in my memory for the next time.  GE was up 7/8 on good volume.  This has been a straight up move of over 2 points this week.  That simply rarely happens in this stock.  I do not know the reason.  Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures and the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU gained about 1 3/4, while GDX was up 1/2.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm frustrated yet again at another losing trade.  One of the mistakes here was my usual not getting out early.  You've got to listen to the market and for some reason sellers disappeared in a hurry after the 2 day debacle.  I recognized it but did not act on it.  But the market doesn't care.  The game rolls on and so do I.  We've got a log holiday weekend coming up and the beginning of the month tomorrow.  I'd expect more inflows to the market but with the overbought condition perhaps we'll see some selling on Friday.  The weekly candlestick charts for the S&P 500 have turned from bearish to bullish.  I'll take a guess at new all time highs here before the July option expiration.  Is it too late to buy some July calls then?  Perhaps not but I would not advise chasing things now.  Maybe if we come off of the overbought condition you could give it a try.  I think that the next event for the market will be the employment report but that isn't due for another week.  Next week will be a short trading week as well.  With the summation index now trending up, expect higher prices going forward.  The market reaction to the vote in England was a one time event and not a lasting market issue.  The comeback this week let's you know that.  Let my losing trade be a reminder to you how difficult it is to try and trade during a headline risk environment.  Markets were higher in Asia and Europe overnight.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Continuing higher as the Dow powered ahead by 285 points on OK volume.  The advance/declines were about 6 to 1 to the plus side.  This should turn the summation index back up.  I was expecting a bounce back but this is more than that.  I did place an overnight order for the SPY July puts and it was filled as the S&P went through the 2050 level.  However the market just kept on going.  This trade will probably be a loser and already is.  My prognosis for the 50% retracement followed by another decline is wrong.  There are no sellers as they sold out on the first couple of sessions after the English vote.  Perhaps that was the washout and I missed seeing it.  The shorts are getting squeezed to death now.  GE was up almost 2/3 on the same volume as yesterday.  Gold rose $8 on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU was up 2 1/2, while GDX added 1/2.  Volume was average.  The gold shares still appear to be in a trading range to me.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A VIX break of the 16 level and close beneath there will put an end to the decline in my opinion.  It has been a very volatile 4 days in the stock market.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages have turned back up and have plenty of room to run.  I'm stuck in a losing trade and probably the best idea would be to simply get out tomorrow.  Unless there is a decent decline on Thursday, that is what I should do.  My entry obviously could have been better but it would have only made for a smaller loss.  This trade is a mistake from the start.  There is a long holiday weekend approaching and there is no reason to stew over a losing idea.  I obviously did not recognize that the market was sold out and it's bounced back stronger than I imagined.  Markets around the globe rallied strongly overnight.  We will end the month of June and the first half of the year tomorrow.  I'd expect to see some more upside follow through to todays action unless there is some kind of overnight surprise.  We'll keep an eye on things as usual.

Quite the bounce today as the Dow climbed 269 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were over 5 to 1 positive.  The summation index is heading lower but another day like today would probably change that.  The VIX moved sharply down as well.  Could that be it for the decline?  Everybody wants to know the answer to that question.  It could be but I don't really think so.  There was some significant technical damage done on the over 100 S&P point drop.  I think we can get to around 2050 on the S&P.  That will be the area to watch in my opinion.  I'll be looking to try the SPY July puts there and I have an open order in for those overnight.  2050 would be around a 50% retracement of the 2 day decline.  That is the game plan for now.  GE was up 2/3 on above average volume.  The 200 day moving average has held for now.  Gold was off about $10 on the futures and the US dollar was lower as well.  Profit taking on the haven trade?  Perhaps.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses.  The volume was a bit above average.  The gold shares are overdue for a rest.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Crazy moves in the market but opportunities as well.  One less day in the July option cycle due to the holiday on the 4th.  Not much attention given to the final GDP revision today as the volatility is the main driver for now.  We won't get the employment numbers until a week from Friday.  Obviously there is a lot of time until that.  There will be a report on the banks from the Fed after the close tomorrow.  That could be a market mover.  We are still hostage to any kind of news from Europe as well.  The short term technical indicators are oversold for the major stock indices but some of them have turned back up.  It's still a time to be cautious.  My thinking here remains that we will get down to the 1950 level on the S&P 500 and perhaps find some support there.  But I could be wrong and often am.  I plan on getting some SPY July puts at some point in the next few days and then sell them when we get to 1950.  But naturally that idea could change depending on market conditions.  European markets bounced overnight as well.  Asia was in a holding pattern.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Downside follow through today as the Dow shed another 260 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were over 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading down.  Not completely oversold on the daily technical indicators for the S&P 500 but just about.  There is some support at the 1950 level and more at 1850.  I suppose you could try and play a bounce at those levels or simply wait for a bounce and then try some puts.  Premiums are elevated and they move fast in a market like this.  There will be opportunities but taking advantage of them is another matter.  The VIX was lower today despite a huge drop and I have no explanation for that.  Perhaps because the decline was not as steep.  But we're still heading down.  GE was off 1/2 and the volume was heavy.  We're at the 200 day moving average here.  Gold was up $5 on the futures but was higher early.  The US dollar had another good day.  The haven trade is on.  The XAU and GDX rose 1/3.  Volume was a bit above average.  In times like these everything gets sold to meet margin calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Still dealing with the fall out from the vote in England and I don't know when this will be fully priced in.  The trend is down and we've dropped over 100 S&P points in 2 days.  Treacherous times.  I think the next trade will be to wait for some kind of bounce and then try the SPY July puts.  When that bounce will come, I have no idea.  Indices in Asia stopped dropping last night but that didn't mean anything in the US.  European markets were clobbered again.  I don't want to completely throw out the technical indicators but we're in an extreme event driven environment.  The prudent thing to do is probably wait until we see some kind of washout.  When that will happen, I have no idea.  It could be sometime this week but it could take even longer.  There is no point in trying to be a hero and pick the bottom.  What I will be looking for though is a sharp short covering rally that comes out of nowhere.  That is the opportunity that will give you a chance to try the SPY July puts.  In downtrends like this these rallies spring up out of nowhere and just as quickly disappear.  That will be the trade that I am looking for.  We'll keep an eye on the action overnight and see if we just keep dropping tomorrow.  

Crash.  That's about all I can say here as everything that was thought to be true yesterday wasn't.  The market voted wrong for a change as England did decide to leave the European Union.  This had repercussions around the world and a stock market bloodbath ensued.  The technicals don't matter in a headline driven situation that we find ourselves in at the moment.  The Dow got clobbered and lost 611 points on blowout heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative.  The is no underlying support in the S&P so it is hard to tell how low this thing will go.  Usually it's a lot lower than you think.  I'm on the sidelines but I do have some ideas.  GE lost 1 1/3 on extremely heavy volume.  Gold rallied along with the US dollar.  The flight to safety trade that I thought was being taken off yesterday returned with a vengeance.  The precious metal futures were up over $50, while the US dollar added more than 2 points.  Incredible moves in one day.  The XAU rose 3 1/3 and GDX climbed 1 1/2.  Volume was heavy.  The gold shares are trying to break out of their trading range.  Another day like today should do it.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I suppose in hindsight the best move today would have been to simply buy some SPY July puts at the open.  It's probably too late for any kind of trade like that going forward.  We'll get follow through to the downside on Monday morning and then perhaps some type of rally attempt.  That is usually the case in market panic attacks like the on today.  We have seen this before.  Perhaps I'll take another stab at a short term bounce trade next week.  But the timing would have to be impeccable and the risk is now extremely elevated.  Not to mention the option premiums are very inflated due to the massive amount of volatility that we are now seeing.  Well, you don't make any money on the sidelines but you don't lose any either.  Today at the open there was a gap down and then a feeble rally attempt.  That feeble rally provided the opportunity to buy some index puts.  I simply was not ready to take advantage of that when I should have.  Three weeks left in the July option cycle and it looks like there won't be any summer doldrums anytime soon.  Traders will have all weekend to think about the ramifications of what happened today.  Stocks got crushed and it could just be the beginning.  Charts look ugly around the globe.  I'm going to have to take a very close look at what happened and try to come up with some kind of idea on how to trade it.  One thing for sure is that you will have to be very nimble and not get attached to any trade.  Take profits quick because we are still in store for some wild swings in the days ahead.  The European markets actually started to come back from the brink before they closed today.  Not so here in the United States and that should carry over to Monday morning.  Plenty to ponder in the next couple of days.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

I thought today would be a wait and see type of market on the vote in England.  Wrong again.  The market has already voted.  The Dow soared 230 points today on light volume.  The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index back to the upside.  The short term technical indicators are now all pointing higher for the major stock indices.  Could this be the beginning of a thrust that takes us to new all time highs?  Time will tell but it appears so to me.  The only caveat again is the light volume.  Markets in Europe rallied as well so it seems those in the know are pretty sure that England will be staying in the European Union.  GE was up 3/8 and the volume was good.  The recent gravestone doji on the daily candlestick charts isn't panning out.  Gold fell $10 on the futures and the US dollar was lower as well.  Is this the flight to safety trade being taken off?  Could be.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  The gold shares remain in a trading range.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It appears that we are seeing a worldwide money flow into stocks.  Indicators have turned and some of the foreign stock indexes are approaching overbought.  The indicators for the S&P 500 still have some room to move higher.  It appears that the vote is over before even being counted if we look to the markets for the answer.  The VIX had a sharp move lower today as well.  There is room to move lower there as well.  So unless there is some kind of surprise overnight, higher equity prices are in the near future.  I don't have any trades in mind for the S&P at the moment.  Perhaps if we get overbought I could try the SPY July puts.  But that trade would be at least a week away in my opinion.  If the volume remains light, that idea may be worth it.  Europe and Japan rallied overnight and I'd expect more of the same tomorrow.  They will be counting the votes overnight but it already seems to be a done deal.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

It was a one day reversal to the downside as the market opened higher and closed lower.  The Dow shed 49 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is trending sideways.  The technical condition of the market hasn't changed.  We are still awaiting the vote in England on Thursday.  That will make for some interesting trading for Friday.  But really this is just a market held hostage to headline risk and it gets a bit ridiculous.  I would not be making any substantial trades one way or the other ahead of the results.  Regardless of the voting outcome, I'll be glad when it is out of the way.  GE was off 1/8 or so on OK volume.  The short term technicals here are starting to roll over.  Gold was off a few bucks on the futures and the US dollar was lower as well.  The XAU rose 1 2/3, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was average.  The gold shares remain in a long trading range that began in the beginning of April.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The small stocks continue to be under performers and that isn't bullish in my view.  Something else that I've noticed recently is the elevated level of the VIX.  The thing is the VIX has been higher but we really haven't seen any huge price moves.  I do not know what that implies but it isn't the usual action.  The European markets have had a nice run up over the past 5 trading sessions.  Maybe they know something we don't.  My feeling is that tomorrow will be a waiting game around the world.  I'll be trying my best not to make any stupid moves ahead of the English vote.

Basically a drift higher as we remain held hostage by the vote in England on Thursday.  The Dow rose 24 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is trying to turn back up.  The small stocks are still lagging.  It is a wait and see market in my opinion.  We had Yellen in Washington today and the market yawned.  More of the same tomorrow I suspect.  The technical indicators remain weak for the NASDAQ and better looking for the bigger cap indices.  I will try my best not to do anything stupid ahead of the vote in the UK.  GE was up 1/8 and the volume was average.  The short term technical indicators here are overbought.  Gold fell $20 on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU lost 1 3/4, while GDX shed 3/4.  Volume was average.  Gold seems to be telegraphing that England with remain in the European Union but that's just another guess on my part.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Plenty of time in the July option cycle to put on a trade if a decent signal appears.  What needs to be answered is after the results of the vote on Thursday, then what?  We'll get the initial knee jerk reaction but what will be the trading driver after that?  The S&P 500 short term technical indicators are mid-range, so you can make a case for either way.  I'm pretty sure that I will remain on the sidelines this week and let the event driven market environment take care of itself.  But who knows?  Maybe I'll try something after Thursdays voting results are in.  Foreign markets were generally higher but not by much in Europe.  We'll keep an eye on what transpires overnight but it really is simply a waiting game for now.

The Dow did manage a gain today but we finished well off of the highs.  It gained 129 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  We were up well over 250 points in the first half hour.  It was a steady erosion from there until the close.  That was not exactly positive price action.  The summation index may start to go sideways after today.  Better news about England and the European Union over the weekend was the cause for the spike this morning.  We are still driven by that event for now.  It makes for more guesswork than usual.  The short term technical indicators have turned back up for the major big cap averages.  The small stocks remain oversold.  GE was up 1/4 on good volume but finished way off of the highs.  The daily candlestick here looks bearish like a gravestone doji.  Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures but came off of its lows.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU was up 2/3, GDX lost 1/8.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The price action today could have been very positive but instead we are left in the lurch.  Trying to trade an event driven environment adds even more than the ordinary trading risk.  The rewards could be substantial.  But so could the losses.  I have yet to make up my mind if I am going to put on a position ahead of Thursdays English vote.  Perhaps the prudent course of action will be to stay on the sidelines and wait until we get back to a regularly traded market.  Maybe if we get a light volume rally this week it will set up for the SPY July puts.  The small stocks are lagging here and that is not a positive sign.  There were decent gains in Asia and huge gains in Europe overnight.  The fact that the US couldn't follow that is cause for concern.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and go from there.

Back to the downside today as the Dow fell 58 points on expiration heavy volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  Getting a mixed bag here with the breadth.  The NASDAQ was relatively weaker.  The summation index continues lower.  There is a positive RSI divergence on the S&P hourly charts.  Plus the short term technical indicators remain oversold.  But we are still held hostage with the headline risk out of England.  Perhaps the wise choice will be to let that pass and go from there.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was lighter.  The gold futures came back today and we are making another run at $1300 there.  The US dollar dropped today.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  Gold will probably move off of the vote in England as well.  The short term technicals here remain overbought.  Still in a trading range for the gold shares is my view.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Hard to tell which way to go here and careful study will be required over the weekend.  High option premiums don't help things at this point with the July option cycle just beginning.  I do not think that England will vote itself out of the European Union but I certainly don't know for sure.  How can we profit from this event is the more important question.  The summation index is still moving down and I do not want to go against that.  But I will have to take a look at everything over the next 2 days to decide what course of action or inaction to take.  Once we get England out of the way, things could slow down with the beginning of summer and the July 4th holiday coming up.  That would not be helpful for the options game unless you are writing them.  So we'll see.  Plenty of things to ponder.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

It was a one day reversal back to the upside today as the Dow gained 92 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about even.  We were down over 150 points early on and made it all the way back and then some.  Even a blind person can see that volatility is back.  The summation index continues lower.  Todays bounce was what I was looking for yesterday.  The S&P 500 bounced back from the 2050 level, which was a nice round number.  There was money to be made in the short term call option trading today.  I did not take advantage of it.  After yesterdays closing decline we were still in the short term oversold condition.  Perhaps I will have to rethink my opinion of my short term trading tactics.  GE was up 1/4 on lighter volume.  No trades here for now.  Gold and the gold shares had a one day reversal to the downside.  The precious metal futures were up over $25 and ended down $5 in the aftermarket.  The US dollar bounced all over the place today but finished little changed.  The XAU fell 2 1/2 and GDX dropped around 7/8.  Volume was heavy.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The next obvious question is was today the end of the recent decline or the start of a bounce in which to get short?  I wish I knew the answer.  I think that it's too early to tell actually.  With the expiration happening tomorrow it is hard to tell what to make of the price action in my opinion.  The summation index is still moving down and we'll take our cues from that for now.  Some of the short term technical indicators have stopped going down but they remain in oversold territory.  At this stage I'm going to let tomorrow pass and hopefully figure things out over the weekend.  The VIX had a huge spike this week so perhaps the worst is over.  We do have the lingering headline event of England and the European Union to deal with.  We'll certainly see markets react once the votes are counted.  But that's a week away.  Foreign markets were generally lower overnight.  We'll see how the expiration goes tomorrow. 

A one day reversal to the downside today as the Dow opened higher and closed lower.  The most watched index fell 34 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive though.  The summation index continues lower.  The Fed had nothing new to say and we got a slight and brief move higher after the announcement.  But the market came apart in the final half hour.  The short term indicators remain oversold.  I did get rid of the SPY June calls today but my exit was lousy.  The gain was 35% but it could have been at least double that if I were more nimble.  However the short term trades aren't my best efforts and I suppose I'm thankful it wasn't a loss.  We are still due for some better bounce than we got today but with only 2 days to go in the June option cycle my best decision will be to move out to July.  GE was up over 1/8 and the volume was good.  We came off of the highs here as well.  It looks like GE was not the precursor that I was hoping it to be.  Gold was up $6 on the futures.  The US dollar fell today and it was lower before the Fed statement.  The XAU rose almost 4 points and GDX added a point.  Volume was above average.  The gold shares have still not broken out of the trading range that began in the beginning of May.  Mentally I'm feeling tired.  The short term trades can do that to you.  I'm also disappointed once again with my execution of the trade.  Too much fear and greed for me today.  Doesn't matter now though and you've got to keep going.  The bounce today was weak and that is not a good sign for the bulls.  The final half hour could be expiration related.  That's a guess as usual.  My ideal scenario for now would be a light volume rise in an attempt to purchase some SPY July puts.  However with the full July option cycle to go, the premiums are expensive.  The weekly candlestick charts for the major stock indices have a bearish pattern for now.  We will have to see where the week closes out.  As of now the weekly technical indicators have rolled over as well.  So we'll see.  Foreign markets rallied overnight.  The fact that the US couldn't follow them is a negative as well.  I think that it's a time to be cautious.

Lower again today as the Dow fell 57 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow but the TRAN got clobbered today.  Getting to short term overbought on the major stock indices.  I did go over the charts again last night and checked my indicators.  I decided to place an overnight order for the SPY June calls that would be filled if we got low enough today.  We did and my order was filled.  It is showing a small profit.  This trade is fraught with risk as the time remaining is only 3 days.  I'm expecting some sort of bounce out of the Fed but I could be wrong.  The trend is down.  GE was up almost 2/3 on good volume.  News on the stock was the driver there.  Now if GE happens to be a precursor for the overall market,  the SPY June call trade will work.  Wishful thinking on my part.  Gold was up slightly and the US dollar had another good session as well.  It appears to be the flight to safety trade is back.  The gold shares are not following though as the XAU lost 2 points, while GDX fell 1/2.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The trend has turned down for stocks but we haven't had a complete breakdown yet.  It appears we are back to the event driven environment with the threat of England exiting the European Union.  Unlike the Greece fiasco of last year, there will actually be a vote of the people to decide.  But this vote is over a week away and the markets are not simply going to stop trading until it is decided.  I'll be looking for some kind of bounce tomorrow and probably should exit this current trade if I get the chance to show a profit.  Volume has picked up as we've headed lower in the past few days.  That is bearish.  I'm still looking at the SPY July puts.  I'll possibly enter that trade if we do see some sort of upside in the next few days.  But we could simply continue to head lower as well.  However the VIX is over extended and did start to turn back down today.  That could change tomorrow.  The trading is never clear cut or easy.  The small stocks have not been leaders on the downside so far.  If they were to take the lead, I would think that a serious decline would be in order.  I could be wrong.  All foreign markets were weak last night as fear has taken over for now.  All eyes and ears will be on the Fed.  We'll see how the markets react to that. 

The Dow lost 132 points today on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is now heading lower.  The uptrend line from February in the S&P 500 has been broken.  The short term technical indicators have all rolled over and are not oversold yet.  There will be a bounce at some point this week but the question is from what level?  You would have to be nimble and quick to take advantage of it.  Those are qualities that I usually lack.  I may try something though.  Markets sold off around the globe last night.  I'm also looking at the SPY July puts but it may be too late for that.  This could also be the beginning of an extended decline but I am not sure of that either.  GE was off almost 1/4 and the volume was better.  Gold rose $10 on the futures as the US dollar was softer.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on light volume.  The gold shares haven't followed gold higher lately and that could turn into a problem for the gold bulls if it doesn't change soon.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A lot of the weekly candlestick charts for the major indices have bearish stars on them.  Perhaps we've reached a turning point in the market.  With only 4 days remaining in the June option cycle, putting on a position for June entails a whole lot of risk.  Perhaps the choice to make here is to wait for a bounce to get the SPY July puts.  Or maybe trying a bounce off of the Fed on Wednesday.  Or maybe just staying on the sidelines.  There are always plenty of choices in the game.  Having the patience to wait for the best set ups is part of the battle.  Right now it appears that the quest for new all time highs has been put on hold once again.  We also broke and closed below the near term support at 2085 on the S&P 500.  We're right above the 50 day moving average.  At this rate we will break that tomorrow.  I'll have to look at all the very short term indicators to see if a bounce trade is possible.  I'd expect more weakness around the world tonight as nothing has materially changed since yesterday.  We'll get retail sales here tomorrow and that could be a market mover.  The recent slow market grind higher has now shifted.  Interesting times.

Well is looks like the selling wasn't met by buying today.  The Dow lost 119 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative.  This could start to move the summation index sideways.  There was wholesale selling all the way around today.  We haven't seen that in a while.  I'm not sure what to make of it.  The short term indicators have now all rolled over for the major stock indices.  It appears that my scenario for new all time highs was wrong.  Or at least put off for now.  The VIX is at the top of its recent range, so there is a possibility that today was the worst of it.  But that's a guess as usual.  GE was off 20 cents on what passes for average volume today.  Gold was up 5 bucks on the futures despite a good session for the US dollar.  The XAU fell about 2 points and GDX shed 1/3 as the gold shares went the other way.  Volume was light for lately.  Not sure what to make of the action here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Expiration week is upon us starting Monday.  It looks like my upside bias prognosis is in jeopardy after todays selling in the stock market.  But we'll see.  We didn't get the final hour run for the exits that you normally see in an extended decline.  However we also could simply just be at the beginning of a downtrend.  There is an uptrend line from February that comes in at around 2085 on the S&P 500.  That could be a spot to try the SPY June calls on Monday for a short term trade if we get there.  Or it could be the last line in the sand before we see an extended drop.  Looking at the short term technical indicators has me thinking that perhaps the calls are not the right idea here.  However things could also simply turn around as the market usually does what will frustrate the most.  I suppose I could waffle back and forth about what to do here but that is a task for me to do over the weekend.  Overseas markets were weak as well as oil overnight.  Perhaps we are back to taking our cues from oil again.  We've got the Fed next week and its anybody's guess as to the markets reaction on Wednesday.  So there will be plenty to think about over the next couple of days.  For now its Friday afternoon and time for a rest. 

A bit lower today as the Dow lost about 20 points on light volume.  the advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues higher.  We finished well off of the lows for the session.  Any selling has been met by buying for the past couple of weeks.  That is constructive market behavior.  Although the short term technical indicators for the major averages remain overbought, I think that we will see new all time highs sometime next week.  I'm a believer that we will get the positive expiration bias effect to run things up before next Friday.  I could be wrong.  However I will look for an entry point to perhaps purchase some SPY June calls in the next couple of days.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was light.  Keep an eye on the 50 day moving average here.  Gold rose $10 on the futures despite strength today in the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  Longer lower rates should be a support for gold if that is the case going forward.  There is also the positive seasonal effect of the August/September time period to look forward to.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Nothing has changed with todays market action as we are basically grinding our way higher.  The smaller stocks were relatively weaker but not by much.  If we were to see bigger declines tomorrow that might cause a problem because the short term technicals would be rolling over.  For now at least, the bulls are in control.  Next week there will be plenty of economic data plus the Fed to deal with.  So we should see some more volatility and price movement.  The key will be to be able to take advantage of it.  Short term trading isn't usually one of my strengths.  I will have to guard against making a trade just for the sake of making one since I did not have any trades during the May option cycle.  The battle always lies within.  Foreign markets were generally lower overnight.  We'll finish out the week tomorrow.

Continuing with the higher drift as the Dow gained 66 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is heading higher.  The march continues to new all time highs in my opinion.  Overbought, staying that way and nothing in the way for now.  It appears that the run up into the June expiration is in place.  The TRAN continues to the upside.  Some of the small stock indices are lagging but RUT is looking good.  At the risk of sounding like a broken record the only caveat remains the light volume.  GE was up over 1/8 and the volume was a little better.  Still below the 50 day moving average here but a rise above will strengthen the case for new all time highs on the S&P.  Gold was up over $15 on the futures as the US dollar was weaker again.  The XAU rose 3 points, while GDX added over 3 /4.  Volume was average.  We are at the top of the recent trading range for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It is looking less and less that I will be able to put on a trade for the June option cycle.  I'm looking for higher prices but can't seem to get the market to cooperate with an entry point.  The June SPY puts don't seem like a good idea at this time.  There isn't much else to do but watch and wait.  Not trying to force the issue here seems to be the best idea that I have at the moment.  Foreign markets were mixed overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

We drifted higher for much of the session but fell in the final hour to finish with a gain of 18 points on the Dow.  The advance/declines were positive and the volume remains light.  The summation index continues higher.  I'm still a believer in higher prices going forward but we may have hit a short term top today.  If so, perhaps the SPY June calls will be back on the table.  The small stocks were underperformers and that's a negative.  The TRAN came to life though and closed above its 50 day moving average.  Running out of time for the June option cycle, so the risk increases with each passing day.  GE was flat on the session and the volume remains light.  Like the Dow, GE finished well off of session highs.  Gold lost a buck on the futures as the US dollar was a bit lower again.  The XAU fell 1 1/4 while GDX shed 1/3.  Volume was very light.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Are we still heading to new all time highs on the S&P?  I'd like to think so but we have to remember that the volume is still lacking.  Even if we make it that far it doesn't mean we are in for an extended gain unless we see some kind of huge volume breakout.  That really doesn't seem possible considering the climate lately and the time of year.  What I'd like to see in the next couple of days is a pullback under 2100 that would potentially set up an expiration week trade in the SPY June calls.  The market rarely cooperates with the best laid plans though.  If that doesn't materialize I'll simply have to wait for the opportunity for some SPY July puts on a light volume advance to new all time highs.  Those are the scenarios on my trading list for now.  We do have the Fed meeting next week but that seems to be a foregone conclusion of no change.  So we'll see.  Foreign markets were higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Higher to start the week as the Dow gained 113 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 higher.  The summation index is heading up.  There is nothing in the way of hitting new all time highs soon.  The question will be what to do when we get there.  It is possible that the market will simply keep moving higher because there will be no overhead resistance.  The only problem here has been the volume, as it remains weak.  You cannot argue with price but there is no power behind it.  I do not think that simply a drift higher will be enough.  GE was up over 1/8 on light volume.  Gold rose almost $5 on the futures as the US dollar was a touch lower.  The XAU added about 7/8 and GDX was up 1/8 on average volume.  Not a lot of follow through to Fridays stellar gains for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It doesn't appear that we will get a chance for the SPY June calls in the next 9 days.  Perhaps if we make it past 2125 on the S&P, I'll start looking at the SPY puts for a short term trade.  We remain overbought on the short term technical indicators for the major stock indices.  Not a lot of economic data due out this week.  So it probably is a good idea to remain on the sidelines for now.  Of course things could always change in a hurry.  Foreign markets were generally slightly higher overnight with the exception of NIKK.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.  

Lower on a weak jobs number today as the Dow lost 31 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  Down almost 150 in the early going, the market made a comeback for the remainder of the session.  The summation index continues to the upside and the short term technicals remain overbought.  We have sold off at the open the past 3 days only to make a comeback each time.  Sooner or later we are going to get going.  The question is, which way?  I'd still like to see a run to the 2125 level on the S&P before considering some puts.  But today the overall market was weaker than the Dow for a change.  The volume still remains an issue as well.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume is still light.  Gold soared as the US dollar got clobbered on the poor employment numbers.  The precious metal futures were up over $30 as the dollar dropped a point and a half.  The XAU rose 8 3/8, while GDX added 2 1/2.  Volume was heavy.  The gold shares are still in a trading range but after today it appears they may be on the verge of breaking out to the upside again.  Hasn't happened yet.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  2 weeks left in the June option cycle.  The risk increases with each passing day but I'm hoping an opportunity will present itself.  The market has had chances to sell off this week and yet buyers have come in.  That tells me that perhaps higher prices are on the way.  I'm not saying it will be some kind of explosive rally.  However it's possible that we could grind our way higher into the expiration.  That's a guess as usual.  The volume remains light here, so no rally can be trusted as yet.  Maybe if we get weakness early next week I'll try the June SPY calls going into the Fed meeting.  But I'll have to consider the possibilities over the weekend.  I would like to try something in the June option cycle because I think once the Fed is out of the way, the summer doldrums could start.  If the volume lately is any indication, it will be a long and boring affair for a couple months.  We'll see.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Another one day reversal to the upside as the Dow opened lower and closed higher.  It gained 48 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues to the upside.  We've gotten above 2100 on the S&P but the volume has been lacking once again.  The advance/decline line continues to make new highs though.  Overbought, staying that way and I don't see any changes at the moment.  The trend is up until further notice.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was very light.  Gold was flat on the futures and the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on very light volume.  Mentally I'm doing OK but did have another visit to the dentist today.  We'll get the employment numbers tomorrow and as usual the market reaction will be the key.  I don't know what to expect one way or the other but I do think things will have a positive resolution.  The small stocks continue to gain ground and that's a plus.  It would help the bullish cause if we could get the TRAN above its 50 day moving average but that hasn't happened yet.  My idea here is to let things make their way up to around the 2125 level on the S&P and take a look at the SPY June puts there.  Subject to revision as we move along.  With the good breadth and upward trending summation index, there is no reason to be overly bearish.  Sellers have seemed to have left the arena for now.  NIKK took a hit last night but the other foreign markets were little changed and mixed.  The OPEC meeting was a non market event.  We'll wait to see what the employment report has to say and close out the week tomorrow.

It was a one day reversal to the upside as the Dow opened over 100 points lower and finished the day up 2 points.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive and the volume was light.  The overall market was slightly stronger than the Dow.  The summation index continues higher.  Very good breadth for a market only up a couple of points.  I'm still looking for higher prices in the near term despite the technically overbought condition in the major indices.  Tomorrow should be a waiting game on the employment report due out of Friday.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was light.  Gold was down a few bucks on the futures despite a drop in the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on very light volume.  I'd expect gold to move on the employment report as well.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The small caps continue to be relatively better performers and I don't expect any major decline as long as that is the case.  The S&P 500 is stalling here at 2100 but suspect that we will get through there in the coming days.  I could be wrong.  My thinking is that there will be better resistance at 2125.  However we know that the market will go where it wants.  The Dow has managed to hold above its 50 day moving average as have other major indices.  The only problem here is the volume which has been pretty weak on the rise.  I do not trust light volume rallies.  So where I do think we can go higher in the short term, I don't think this is the start of a leg up that breaks out.  Unless we get a high volume rally through 2125.  I don't see that happening just yet.  Patience is still the theme here and perhaps now some SPY June puts if we move higher.  Foreign markets were weak overnight and we followed their cue early.  We'll watch the overnight developments and expect a quiet session tomorrow.

Lower on the Dow today to begin a shortened trading week and end the month of May.  The most watched index fell 86 points on better than average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  We were off almost 150 at one point but made a final hour comeback.  The better volume may be an end of the month result.  The summation index continues higher.  The advance/declines were not in line with an off 86 market and the small stocks were higher as well.  I'm still looking for higher prices going forward.  If we get a multi-day decline there may be a chance for the SPY June calls but that remains to be seen.  The short term technical indicators remain overbought.  GE was up 1/8 and the volume was average for lately.  Still below the 50 day moving average here.  Gold rose $10 on the futures with the US dollar higher as well.  The XAU added 1 1/8, while GDX gained 1/3.  Volume was average.  No trades in mind here for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  2100 seems to be the stopping point for now on the S&P 500.  If we get through there I'd venture to guess we could go to 2125.  After that, who knows?  Still plenty of time in the June option cycle for some type of trade.  We've got the employment report due Friday and that should be the next market moving event.  The Feds beige book tomorrow also might induce some price action.  The relative strength in the small stocks combined with a rising summation index says that we are probably heading higher in the near term.  The TRAN stalled at its 50 day moving average today.  We will have to see if it can get through there as well.  I'll simply have to watch and wait for now.  Foreign markets were mixed with Asia higher and Europe lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on things overnight.

Still moving up as the Dow gained 45 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is heading higher.  Nothing in the way for higher prices as the sellers have left the field for now.  Short term overbought and staying there.  At this rate, new all time highs are in the cards.  The only problem is the volume and that is a recurring theme.  Yellen came and went without any meaningful market reaction.  There has been no snap back to the broken downtrend line.  It appears that I have missed another trading opportunity again.  GE was up a few cents and the volume was very light.  Gold was off $10 on the futures as the US dollar had a strong session.  The XAU fell 2 3/4, while GDX dropped 2/3.  Volume was good even though it was a getaway Friday.  The uptrend in the gold shares has ended.  Higher rates in the US and the rise in the dollar will put a lid on gold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm not sure what the next move for me will be.  It is too late to join the rally in my opinion unless we see some decline.  I'm also not sure that we will blast off if we hit new highs because the volume just isn't there.  Perhaps the next trade will be the SPY June puts when we get to 2125 on the S&P 500.  But at this point I just don't know.  Missing this rally has me in not such a good mental spot.  There is still plenty of time in the June option cycle to do something.  However getting the market to cooperate is another story.  I'll have to check all the charts and regroup over the long weekend.  There is not doubt that we are heading higher.  It is a matter of how much and how long.  We could set nominal new highs in June.  But if we don't see a pick up in volume, any breakout would be suspect.  Of course none of this has happened yet and the market will as always do what it wants.  Plenty to ponder.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.  

A quiet and mixed market today as the Dow fell 23 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is heading back up.  Waiting to hear from Yellen tomorrow was the market mood for today.  The very light volume is a concern and tomorrow is a Friday ahead of a long holiday weekend.  I'd expect players to head out early after the Fed chiefs speech.  I'm still leaning towards getting some SPY calls on a pull back.  But the lackluster volume makes all trades suspect.  To break the overhead resistance will take a decent push.  I don't see that happening in this environment.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was light.  Gold dropped $4 on the futures and the US dollar lost ground as well.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume.  Light volume all the way around continues to be the theme.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'll most likely let tomorrow pass as there is no reason to attempt anything before the weekend.  The short term technicals for the major indices remain overbought.  There is no reason to try and guess what will happen next.  I will simply once again have to be patient and await a decent signal.  We are in a seasonally positive spot for stocks but it doesn't last too long.  Perhaps waiting to try the June SPY puts later in this option cycle will be the next trade.  We'll have to see where things go from here.  We do have the employment report and a Fed meeting still to go in the June option cycle.  So volatility will return as well as opportunities for profit.  Hopefully I'll be up to the task.  For now it is watch and wait.  Foreign markets were generally slightly higher or little changed overnight.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.    

Continuing higher as the Dow climbed 145 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is now heading higher.  We're heading higher from here in my mind and SPY calls can be purchased if we get a pullback.  Perhaps we'll see new all time highs soon.  The perfect head and shoulders top on the S&P 500 failed to live up to expectations and that pattern is now negated.  The market will always do what is least expected and frustrates the most participants.  That is the nature of the game.  GE was up 1/4 and the volume remains light.  Still below the 50 day moving average here.  Gold was off $5 and the US dollar was a bit lower as well.  The XAU gained 2 points, while GDX added 1/2.  Volume was average.  Trying to hold the 50 day moving average in the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  2 days remain in this week and it precedes a holiday weekend.  I'd like to see some kind of snap back to the short term downtrend line that was just broken in the major averages.  But at this juncture it appears that we will simply head higher.  We are approaching short term overbought on some of the technical indicators.  But remember that in up trends the market can remain overbought for quite a while.  We've got Yellen from the Fed speaking on Friday and that could be a market mover.  The small stocks didn't have the leadership that we've seen lately so perhaps some near term weakness is near.  That's a guess as usual.  The best time for getting long the June option cycle has passed.  However we may get another opportunity if the market cooperates.  Time will tell on that.  Stocks around the globe were higher as money is now flowing into those assets.  The only caveat here is volume as it certainly has been anything but robust.  Light volume rallies are not to be trusted.  But as long as price heads higher we'll have to give it the benefit of the doubt.  For now.  We'll watch the overnight action and go from there.   

The Dow took off to the upside today as it gained 213 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving down but after today it may stop its decline.  We got a signal yesterday in the McClellan oscillator that predicted a big move within 2 days.  We got it today.  It is possible that this is a second shoulder on the S&P 500 head and shoulders pattern but I doubt it.  Whenever everybody recognizes something in this game, like the widely advertised head and shoulders top pattern, it never fails to not work.  What we have instead is what looks like a rectangle consolidation.  I think we're heading to 2100 now for the S&P.   I will still be looking to purchase some SPY June calls on a pullback.  GE was up 1/3 on light volume.  No trades here for now.  Gold fell over $20 on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  Gold is taking a much needed rest.  The XAU lost 5 points and GDX dropped 1 1/3.  Volume was heavy.  The inverse relationship between gold and the dollar is intact for now.  Support for gold is at $1200.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit disappointed about not already being in the June SPY calls.  However there wasn't exactly a clear buy signal there.  Sometimes in bear markets rallies pop up out of nowhere.  It is a result of short covering with some actual buying once the move gets going.  This isn't a bear market at the moment.  That is why I think this is an initiation move to higher prices for equities.  The leadership of the small stocks is also a clue that we are headed up.  Perhaps all the way into the June expiration.  That's a guess as usual.  We have also just broken through a short term downtrend line in some of the major averages.  Perhaps a pullback to that line will offer the chance at some calls.  Of course we could always just simply head up with no retreat.  We'll see.  European markets were very strong overnight mimicking the Dow.  Asian markets were generally weak.  That should change tonight.  We'll see if there is any upside follow through tomorrow for the Dow. 

A quiet day of trading until we dropped in the final hour.  The Dow fell 8 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were about even.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The summation index continues lower.  The S&P 500 has a near perfect symmetrical head and shoulders top formation.  That is something that you don't see that often.  A high volume downside breakdown would trigger this formation.  That is definitely a possibility.  I'm still waiting for some kind of valid signal one way or the other.  Some of the short term technical indicators are now mid-range, while others are oversold.  GE was off a few cents on again very light volume.  Oversold on the technical indicators here.  Gold was off a few bucks on the futures, while the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on very light volume.  As you notice, the common theme for the markets is the lack of interest.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Light volume in the game is never a good sign.  Lack of participation or interest is not a positive sign.  We haven't seen a collapse but if we break the head and shoulders neckline, things will deteriorate in a hurry.  Hasn't happened yet.  Plenty of time in the June option cycle.  The Bollinger bands are starting to contract on the NASDAQ.  So perhaps things will sort themselves sooner rather than later.  The summation index has continued to move lower and the decline has been orderly up until now.  If we continue to be weak the next couple of days, I might try the SPY June calls.  However if we break sharply lower, I'll probably have to remain on the sidelines.  Sideways trading ranges make for tough trading.  Foreign markets were generally lower overnight but nothing drastic.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.