We got the bounce that was due as the Dow rose 65 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The summation index is still heading down.  Once again the light volume rise is a concern.  The potential for a head and shoulders top that has taken 2 months to build is still there for the S&P 500.  However there is also the possibility that we are simply moving in a sideways channel and are due to head back up to the upper range.  The volume just isn't there for whatever reason.  I am looking at the SPY June calls and purchasing them perhaps at the beginning of next week.  But I will consider this idea more closely over the weekend.  GE was up almost 20 cents on light volume.  Still oversold on the short term technical indicators here.  Gold was slightly lower and the US dollar slightly higher on todays trading session.  The XAU and GDX had minor gains on average volume.  This area took a breather today.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It's still a tough trading environment as we are at the moment of truth for the major averages.  We are either going to break down hard or get some type of at least short term rally.  The small stocks are acting better here and that has me leaning towards a positive resolution.  The breadth is also improving, which is another plus.  But the volume has been pretty light lately and the summation index is still heading down.  We haven't seen a solid break of the 2040 level on the S&P but if that occurs we're heading lower.  I suppose that the jury is still out on the near term direction of the major indices.  I'll take a look at all the angles over the weekend and try to come up with a game plan for next week.  Most foreign markets were higher overnight.  There will be a lot to try and sort out over the next 2 days.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Lower today as the Dow fell 91 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The S&P 500 closed right at the 2040 level.  The McClellan oscillator has gotten very negative and I would expect some kind of bounce.  I am thinking about getting some SPY June calls.  We are at a point on the oscillator where the market should be dropping quite hard and it is not.  I do not have an explanation.  The decline we have seen has been quite orderly.  Of course that could change at a moments notice.  So I can't exactly say that I know what is going on here.  The technical indicators for the short term remain oversold.  GE had a gap lower and closed off 1/4 on good volume.  If GE is a precursor perhaps the market is about to let loose to the downside.  Gold was off over $15 on the futures but much of that was factored in after the futures close yesterday.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU rose 1 2/3, while GDX was up 3/8.  Positive divergence there.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Perhaps some volatility tomorrow as it will be option expiration.  Probably the best course of action would be to let tomorrow pass and try to figure things out over the weekend.  We're due for a bounce according to the McClellan oscillator but what happens after that is anyones guess.  Maybe we are simply in a general market malaise.  The neckline of the head and shoulders top pattern on the S&P was broken today but we climbed back up to it.  That may be a fake out as well.  Time will tell on that.  I've been patient up to now so I suppose there is no reason to change that.  Foreign markets were weak across the board overnight.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.      

Volatility was the word of the day as the Dow bounced around during the trading session.  The most watched index finished down just 3 points after all was said and done.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative and the volume was average.  The breadth was weak but the small stocks outperformed.  Mixed signals have been the rule lately and today was no exception.  The summation index is still heading lower.  2040 has still held things up for the S&P 500 so far.  We've had plenty of attempts to break things here but have yet to fall through.  I'm now considering the SPY June calls.  But that could change.  GE lost a dime on light volume.  Gold fell $17 on the futures as the US dollar rallied on the release of the Fed minutes.  The XAU dropped 7 1/4, while GDX lost 2 points.  Volume was very heavy in a run to the exits.  The uptrend line from the beginning of the year was broken for the gold shares.  We are finally going to get a rest here and it is certainly due.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm still trying to figure out which way to go here but the signals remain ambiguous.  Plenty of chances lately to break down but the market has held on.  So I'm thinking now may not be the time for a decent decline.  We've really just been moving sideways since mid-March in the S&P 500.  Whichever way we break out should produce something more lasting in nature.  That's the theory anyway.  As always, the market will go where it wants.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P are oversold.  But we haven't seen a bounce and we haven't seen a breakdown.  Like I have said, things are mixed and you can make a case either way.  I've been patient but sooner or later you've got to step up to the plate.  The US dollar broke what I considered an important level at 94, only to come right back up.  A strong dollar usual considered bearish for stocks but I'm not always a buyer of that theory.  It is negative generally for gold though.  Unless we are getting an enormous flight to safety.  That isn't the case today.  So we'll see how the overseas markets react to todays Fed minutes and take it from there. 

Back and forth remains the theme as the Dow fell 180 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still heading lower.  There was no upside follow through to yesterdays light volume rise.  We are still above the 2040 level on the S&P 500 but it has the feel of something about to break down.  The short term technical indicators are oversold.  Too late for any trades in the May option cycle for me.  The head and shoulders top in the S&P 500 is still there.  A break below 2040 will trigger it.  We've got the Fed minutes due tomorrow.  I don't see any factors to drive the market higher right now.  It appears that we will be heading down.  GE was off 1/4 on better volume.  Gold gained $6 on the futures as the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU rose 1 3/4, while GDX added 1/3.  Volume was average.  A lot of positive gold news in the media and that is usually a sign of at least a short term top.  However nothing has caused any significant drop here this year.  I'm sure that will change at some point.  Mentally I'm feeling frustrated as I haven't been able to place a trade in a few weeks.  Patience is always a good thing but waiting around for the next decent signal gets old.  On the plus side, I haven't lost any money.  However it gets tiring when you put in the day to day work and have nothing to show for it.  You cannot force the issue though.  So perhaps tomorrow will be the day that we finally break down.  Volume picked up to the downside and we are already oversold.  That is a recipe for lower prices in my mind.  Why didn't I buy some index puts today you may ask?  It is option expiration week and with 3 days left the risk simply is too much.  We could easily bump up tomorrow or go sideways for the rest of the week.  I do better with longer term trades in my mind.  I did consider getting some June SPY calls today but did not.  There just seems to be no sustained buying power in the market right now.  The foreign markets were mixed with Asia higher and Europe slightly lower.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

Another bounce today as the Dow climbed 175 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still heading lower.  We've held the 2040 level once again for the S&P 500.  We will need to see the summation index turn around to lose the bearish bias.  Once again the volume today was light.  If we continue to see a rise with light volume, I'll eventually try the June SPY puts.  However it is option expiration week and volatility is a distinct possibility.  The head and shoulders top for the S&P is still intact.  GE was up 1/3 on light volume.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures as the US dollar didn't do much today.  The XAU rose 2 1/4, while GDX added almost 1/2.  Volume was average.  The uptrend line from January remains intact here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market had an opportunity to fail this morning and it did not.  I'm not sure if we are building another right shoulder here or we are going back to test the recent highs of April.  There is a lot of bearishness out there and that probably means we are going higher for now.  We need to see some upside with volume to be sure that we are actually going to head higher for more than a few days.  The jury is still out on this market.  It is probably too late, in my opinion, for a trade in the May options.  So we'll see.  Foreign markets were flat or slightly higher in most cases overnight.  We'll see if they can follow the US higher overnight.

Another downer as the Dow fell 185 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  But you cannot argue with price.  2040 is the near term support for the S&P 500 in my opinion.  Low volume means no interest and I do not see a catalyst for higher prices at this time.  The short term technical indicators have rolled back over.  There is now only a potential head and shoulders top being formed here in the S&P.  However I have seen this pointed out in the media and when everybody sees the same thing it usually doesn't work.  The economic data wasn't really a mover.  The market seemed to fall on its own weight.  GE was off almost 1/2 on good volume.  Gold was up $4 on the futures despite a rise in the US dollar.  The XAU rose 1/2 and GDX added 1/4.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Just a week to go in the May option cycle.  The TRAN has broken down and it is a leader at times.  The small stocks are better performers here but it hasn't translated into higher prices.  They are just going down less.  The environment is negative but we have not seen any downside washout.  It is a tough trading time.  A quick bounce higher would wipe out any current gains in the puts.  I'll probably just stay on the sidelines next week but you never know.  If the head and shoulders top is valid, things will get ugly in a hurry.  If we hold the 2040 level in the S&P, a trade in the calls could prove profitable.  But like I said before you don't want to get into a guessing game.  I'll consider the probabilities over the weekend and take it from there.  It still appears that a case can be made either way.  However it does seem that the power to buy stocks has waned.  Perhaps there are liquidity issues that I'm not aware of.  That's just a guess but the light volume does mean something.  I'll be checking the charts this weekend as usual.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We bounced around today and the Dow finished with a gain of 9 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely negative.  The summation index is still moving down.  We were up down and back up again today as the market is deciding what to do.  I think things could go either way as I said yesterday but I've still got the bearish bias.  With only six days to go in the May option cycle, it appears to be too late to put on a trade.  The risk is very high either way.  I may have to move out to the June options.  We should move off of the economic data tomorrow.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume picked up.  A firm issued a sell rating on GE today.  Technically the 50 day moving average contained the recent bounce.  Gold fell $10 on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU fell 1 3/4, while GDX shed 1/2.  Volume was average.  Gold should probably move tomorrow as well with inflation and retail sales news.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm now leaning towards staying on the sidelines with regards to a May option cycle trade.  There are both potential short term head and shoulders patterns both ways on the S&P 500 index daily candlestick chart.  The smaller one is bullish and the larger one is bearish.  These are potential patterns as they have yet to play out one way or the other.  Most of the short term technical indicators are exactly mid-range right now.  So you do not want to play a guessing game when trading.  The summation index is heading lower and the small stocks were relatively weaker today.  Along with the TRAN.  Those are bearish signs.  Volume was also very heavy in TRAN.  That could be a short term washout.  Or not.  So I think that at this time the prudent thing for me to do would be to let tomorrow go by and then take a look at things over the weekend again.  That's the idea at the moment.  Foreign markets were generally lower overnight.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.       

Back to the downside today as the Dow fell 217 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were not even 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  It appears that yesterday was the opportunity to purchase the SPY May puts.  The signals here are mixed and I'm still in the bearish camp for now.  I suppose that if we do see a light volume rally tomorrow it could be worth shorting.  But we are running out of time in the May option cycle and any trade attempted would have very high risk.  The fact that we got zero upside follow through is not a positive.  We have options expiration week coming up and that usually brings some volatility.  There is no point in guessing what will happen.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was light.  Gold rose $14 on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU gained 2 2/3, while GDX added 2/3.  Volume was OK.  Still waiting for a correction in the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling frustrated as I would like to put on a trade before the May option cycle ends but can't seem to find a spot.  Todays price action was bearish.  The rally yesterday sprang up out of nowhere on light volume.  That is typical of a negative market.  Perhaps if we see some early strength tomorrow it will be an opportunity to get the May SPY puts.  But the market rarely cooperates with the best laid plans.  The small stocks and the overall market were not as weak as the Dow.  That could mean something positive.  Or not.  There wasn't wholesale selling of everything today, which is usually the sign of trouble.  So once again I think we are in a position where it could go either way though I'm bearish.  My option indicator is leaning towards the bullish side as there are more puts being purchased.  I don't know if I have the discipline here to simply sit it out unless a valid signal comes through.  As usual the battle in trading is most of the time with yourself.  I'll see how it goes tomorrow.  Foreign markets were generally lower with no major declines.  We'll keep an eye on things overnight.

A short covering rally and then some as the Dow soared 222 points today on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving lower but appears ready to turn around.  Another day like today would do the trick.  We climbed past the 2075 level on the SPX, which I thought would hold things.  We now may be headed back up to test the 2100 level.  The light volume is a cause for concern though.  The short term technical indicators for the major indices have all turned back up.  I am no longer sure about trading the May SPY puts.  GE rose almost 2/3 on below average volume.  Heading back towards the 50 day moving average and the short term down trend line here.  Gold was up almost $5 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit higher as well.  The XAU rose 3 1/8, while GDX gained 7/8.  Volume was good.  Up trend lines from the beginning of the year remain intact for gold and the gold shares.  However this cannot last forever.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit distracted with another visit to the dentist today.  But you cannot let things get in the way of the trade.  Today was much stronger than I expected and it could be a significant change.  Or it could be an oversold bounce that doesn't last.  Perhaps I will wait for the SPX to get to 2100 and then try the SPY May puts.  Or maybe I should just sit on the sidelines.  Some of my indicators are leaning one way and some the other.  When in doubt, stay out is the popular saying.  I'll have to consider what to do overnight.  If the volume remains light, I'll consider the May puts.  There is another signal that I like to use on a 50 day chart when it appears.  If that happens, I'll also consider trying the puts.  So I suppose for now it's back to a wait and see game.  Foreign markets were higher overnight with Asia much stronger than Europe.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

A mixed bag to begin the week as the Dow fell 34 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 had slight gains.  The summation index continues lower.  It was the kind of day that frustrates both the bulls and the bears as we are basically going nowhere.  Less than two weeks to go in the May option cycle.  I'd still like to try the SPY May puts but will have to see some kind of attempt to make it back to 2075 on the SPX.  We've yet to see a short covering rally.  My ideal scenario would be strength into sometime on Wednesday.  But the ideal scenarios rarely come to pass.  GE lost 1/4 and the volume was light.  Gold got clobbered today as the precious metal futures lost almost $30.  The dollar was higher but not enough to cause that much damage in gold.  The XAU fell 6 points, while GDX shed 1 2/3.  Volume was average.  This area is in need of a rest.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not much economic data out this week until retail sales along with producer price inflation on Friday.  I think that we are overdue for some kind of bounce for stocks but there haven't been any buyers.  The drift is not friendly to taking outright options positions.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages remain in the oversold zone.  Normally that would bring some kind of attempt at some upside but everything has remained weak.  Running out of time in May for an options trade but I'm still looking.  Each passing day increases the risk though.  Foreign markets were mixed overnight and are not providing any direction as well.  Perhaps the sidelines are the best choice at the moment.  We'll keep an eye on what happens tonight.  

It was a one day reversal to the upside as the Dow opened lower and closed higher.  The most watched index gained about 80 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still pointing down.  The employment report was a bit weaker than expected but it wasn't the market mover that it could have been.  The short term technical indicators are still oversold for the major indices.  Most indexes have held for now at their 50 day moving averages.  Two weeks left in the May option cycle.  GE was up 1/4 on average volume.  I'm not exactly sure what we are seeing in the price action here.  Gold was up $17 on the futures as it liked the smaller than expected jobs number.  The US dollar was initially lower but finished the day with a small gain.  The XAU rose 3 1/3 and GDX added almost a point.  Volume was good.  The uptrend line in GDX that began in January remains intact.  The gold miners continue to attract capital.  Perhaps I should be concentrating on simply trading the calls here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Oversold on the stock indexes but I'm still considering the May puts.  The market doesn't seem to have any buying interest.  Now that could change at any time but it has been a drift lower for two weeks.  I have yet to even see a short covering rally that springs up out of nowhere.  That is really what I'm looking for sometime next week in order to try the SPY May puts.  As long as the summation index doesn't turn around, that will be the next trade.  There was a chance today to try the May calls for a bounce but I did not have the conviction.  Or the guts.  So we will have to see what next week brings.  I don't think that we are going to see some kind of rally that leads to another leg up and new highs.  But the market will go where it wants.  There is a chance that we rally off of the short term oversold condition.  However right now I'm of the opinion that the market is weak and volume is light.  Liquidity doesn't appear to be there.  I could be wrong.  Plenty of charts to look at and strategies to ponder over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Running in place ahead of the jobs numbers as the Dow rose 9 points on almost average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The market can't get anything going to the upside despite the oversold condition.  That usually spells trouble for the bulls.  I'd still like to try the SPY May puts but will have to see some kind of short covering bounce first.  Still a little over 2 weeks left in the May option cycle.  The risk is that we have reached a short term trading bottom and we see a rise back to the 2100 level for the S&P 500.  The decline has been orderly so far with no panic.  That is why I think we still have room to go lower.  The 50 day moving average has held things so far for the S&P 500.  GE was off 18 cents on average volume.  Oversold here as well.  Gold was up $5 on the futures despite a rise in the US dollar.  The XAU was up 1 7'8, while GDX added 3/4.  Volume was good.  Probably just a bounce here after 3 days of decline.  That's a guess as usual.  We could get some movement in gold off of the employment report tomorrow.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Once again there was a chance today to buy the SPY May calls for a bounce but I remained on the sidelines.  Perhaps the last losing trade is still affecting me going forward.  Anything could happen tomorrow.  I've been waiting for some decent move to the upside to buy the puts but the market hasn't cooperated.  The tone is still negative with the small stocks leading the way down here.  The TRAN was negative today as well.  All rallies in the general market have been sold recently.  We really haven't seen anything positive for the market in the past couple of weeks.  All I can do now is hope for some upside to get short.  If we panic out to the downside, I'll have to try and trade the bounce.  That's about all I've got at the moment.  Foreign markets were mixed overnight.  We'll see how things go with the jobs report tomorrow.  

The Dow fell another 100 points today on almost average volume.  The advance/declines were negative but not as much as a down 100 market would suggest.  The summation index is heading lower.  Oversold on the short term technical indicators and some of the medium term indicators are also in the range where some upside should be seen.  If I had the guts I would have tried the SPY May calls today but I'm waiting for an entry point for puts.  There is some support here at 2050 for the S&P 500 but if and when that fails we should start to drop more rapidly.  GE was off 1/2 on good volume and we took out the 50 day moving average.  If GE is a precursor for the overall market then you get the idea of what could happen.  Gold was off $10 on the futures as the US dollar was up again.  The XAU dropped 4 points and GDX fell 1 1/4.  Volume here was good again as the rally in gold has come to a close for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It has been a pretty orderly decline so far with no signs of panic.  That in itself tells me that there is probably more room to go on the downside.  I cannot chase it here and expect to make any money on a put trade.  We'll need to see some kind of attempt for some upside in order to get positioned.  There is also the possibility that the decline will simply end.  There's always some risk out there.  The small stocks have already dropped pretty good and any turnaround in AAPL will get things going to the upside in my opinion.  I'm going to stick with the theory that any rally here can be shorted if we happen to get one.  So I'll try and be patient.  I will also probably let the employment report get out of the way before trying the next trade.  But we'll see what happens between now and the close on Friday.  Overseas markets were weak but not drastically.  We'll watch what happens overnight and go from there.

The Dow dropped 140 points today on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  This should move the summation index lower.  My thinking is that we have something going on here and it will be to the downside.  The technical indicators are already oversold though.  But the tone of the market has turned negative.  Today everything was sold and that usually means that there is something going on underneath the surface.  What that is, I don't know.  I suppose that I'll be looking for some type of near term light volume rally to buy the SPY May puts.  But we may just drop from here.  I suppose in hindsight that yesterday was the day to get short.  GE was off 1/4 on light volume.  Still holding on to the 50 day moving average.  Gold fell $7 on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU fell 3 1/2, while GDX lost 3/4.  Volume was good to the downside again.  It is shaping up as a poor week for the miners so far.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Volatility has picked up in the past week and it is something to pay attention to.  I'm not sure what it all means but the market is starting to roll over.  Of course this could all change tomorrow but I don't think so.  With the already oversold conditions, it's dangerous to try the puts.  However we also must recognize what is happening here.  Selling has sprung up out of nowhere and we must pay attention.  The employment number on Friday could be trouble.  That's a guess as usual.  There's still plenty of time left in the May option cycle.  I would like to have a better handle on things here but I don't.  Is it possible that we hold up here and head to new highs?  Anything is possible in the game.  But I'm going to be looking for lower prices.  What is needed is the proper entry point and waiting for some upside is my thought right now.  If we simply continue lower from here, then the trade has been missed.  Foreign markets that were open were generally lower.  That trend will probably continue overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 117 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index appears to be trending sideways.  We were higher from the start and the opportunity to get the SPY May calls appears to have passed.  If we continue higher into the end of the week there might be a chance to switch back to the SPY May puts.  But we will have to see light volume and poor breadth for that idea to work.  There is a chance that we run up to new highs here as well.  That is the least expected scenario and that gives it perhaps the best chance of occurring.  GE was up 1/8 and the volume was very light.  The 50 day moving average is still showing support here.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures despite another good drop in the US dollar.  The gold shares lagged as the XAU fell 2 1/8 and GDX shed 3/8.  Volume was good.  Perhaps it is time for another pause for the gold shares.  Maybe even some decent decline as some of these issues have more than doubled since the beginning of the year.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm still looking for higher prices near term as things got bearish pretty quickly.  However right now there isn't a clear signal one way or the other.  Getting long Friday on the decline was the near term play.  So now we'll have to wait.  The employment report on Friday could be the next big catalyst.  But we don't want to get into a guessing game.  If things line up OK, I'll look at the SPY May puts on Thursday.  If we are choppy into Friday, I may have to sit things out.  We'll let the market decide for us what to do.  Japan has been very weak in the past two sessions so we should see some kind of bounce there hopefully.  The other Asian and European markets were generally weaker but not as much as Japan.  We'll see if they follow the US higher overnight.  

We got some downside follow through today as the Dow fell 57 points on good volume for a change.  The advance/declines were negative.  We were down well over 150 points during the session but made a last hour comeback.  Short term oversold on some indicators.  The recent breadth has not been as bad as the decline has been.  I'm looking for a short term rally at the beginning of next week.  Right now I think that any weakness Monday can be bought for a bounce trade.  I'll probably be looking at the SPY May calls to start the next month.  The decline here has been short and quick for now.  I don't know if it will actually be the beginning of something more sustainable.  Time will tell on that.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was light.  Gold took off to the upside on a still weaker US dollar.  It appears that the precious metal is finally breaking out to the upside from its sideways congestion zone.  That would coincide with the dollar breaking down from the support at 94.  It appears that the rally we've seen so far in gold this year is for real.  The XAU was up almost 6 points, while GDX added 1 1/2.  Volume was just a bit higher than average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  An interesting end to the month as volatility picked up in the last two days.  Once again I must admit that I don't know why.  My thinking is that we'll see some type of rally attempt in the beginning of next week and after that, who knows?  My theories haven't been working lately though.  Technically the short term indicators have either rolled over or are oversold for the major stock indexes.  The small stocks, which were acting poorly lately compared with the big caps, are now showing some relative strength.  Overall it remains a very mixed bag.  Three weeks to go in the May option cycle so the premiums are where we want them for trading.  There is a little volatility built into the prices now though.  Some Asian markets were closed overnight and Europe was weaker.  Something is going on here that we'll find out about in due time.  Plenty to ponder over the weekend.  I think that you have to be extra nimble trading right now.  Do not fall in love with positions.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to come up next weeks game plan.  for now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

To the downside today as the Dow fell 210 points on better volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index may be moving sideways now.  GDP was a little light and Japan didn't add more stimulus.  However even though we sold off early, the market did make it all the way into positive territory.  The final couple hours saw the market fall off a cliff.  The advance/declines didn't support such a big drop today.  I must admit that we are in a spot where I don't have a firm grasp as to what is going on.  The short term technical indicators have now rolled over for the major indices.  The small caps are already oversold.  I'm inclined to believe that rallies can be shorted now.  My ideal scenario for buying the SPY May puts does not look like it will happen.  GE was off few cents and the volume was light.  Gold was up $17 on the futures as the US dollar broke through the important 94 level.  The XAU rose 3 1/3, while GDX gained a point.  Volume was heavy.  If the dollar continues to fall here it would be a positive for gold.  Gold hasn't broken out of its congestion zone yet though.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm not sure this is the beginning of the down trend that I'm looking for but it could be.  Some of my short term indicators will be oversold already.  Perhaps today was some end of the month selling.  If so we should see some more tomorrow.  Not exactly knowing what is going on here doesn't exactly inspire any confidence in trading it.  I'll probably let tomorrow go by and try and regroup over the weekend.  If the US dollar does continue to drop, that would be a positive for stocks in my mind.  But I cannot rule out a multi-week decline as we are almost in the month of May which usually isn't a good one for stocks historically.  Foreign stocks were mixed with Asia falling from their highs and Europe coming back off of their lows.  We'll see if we get some downside follow through as we close out the month tomorrow. 

The Dow gained 51 points today on better volume than we've seen lately.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is heading higher.  The Fed came out with no change in interest rates.  The rest of what they had to say can be interpreted either way depending on if you're bullish or bearish.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  That has been the case for a while.  The news on earnings was negative and there was every reason for some kind of sell off.  The market has been resilient despite poor numbers.  This says that prices will go higher.  The small stocks have been relatively weaker and that should eventually lead to a decline.  But I do think we'll go up in the near term.  GE was basically flat on light volume.  Gold was up a few bucks on the futures as the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU rose 1 1/3, while GDX added 1/4.  Volume was lighter than average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll get the 1st quarter GDP report tomorrow morning and that should get things moving either way.  The small stocks are certainly oversold here and a bounce there could be coming.  The advance/decline line for stocks continues to make new highs and that is bullish.  However on the weekly small stock charts, some of them are showing potential head and shoulders tops.  Theses haven't been confirmed yet but it is something to keep an eye on.  Also big cap leadership is a late stage bull market symptom, not something that usually leads to a strong leg up.  So the signals all around are somewhat mixed.  I'll make the case for some more upside near term followed by a decline.  If we can get to new all time highs or near there on the S&P 500 with light volume, that will be what we are looking for to purchase the SPY May puts.  That's the scenario that I'm waiting for.  We will just have to wait and see if that happens in the next few days.  Foreign markets were mixed with Asia lower and Europe higher.  We'll see how the markets react to the GDP number tomorrow.

Waiting on the Fed it seems as the Dow gained 13 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The first hour saw a jump up and then right back down again.  The rest of the day was a meandering affair.  The summation index should be moving back up after today.  I do think that the market will rally from here for a bit.  Overbought and staying that way.  I would like to see a light volume attempt to set new highs on the S&P 500.  That is the set up in my mind for the SPY May puts.  We'll just have to wait and see if the market cooperates.  GE was up almost 1/4 on light volume.  Gold rose $5 on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU added 1 7/8, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was average.  Perhaps we'll see some movement in gold after the Fed as well.  Basically sideways in gold itself for the past two months.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Small stocks were mixed to day with the tech names leading some of the indices there lower.  Perhaps the earnings from AAPL after the bell will get things going to the upside there.  RUT had a good session.  Add very good market breadth today and you can see why a case can be made for higher prices in the near term.  The expensive option premiums have led me to not try the SPY May calls here although that could be a mistake on my part.  Like I have said, there's always a chance that we break out to the upside through the overhead resistance.  However at this juncture I'm placing the odds on that as very low.  I could be wrong and often am.  I expect nothing new from the Fed tomorrow.  The GDP report may be more of a market event.  Foreign markets were mixed overnight.  We'll see what the Fed has to say tomorrow.

A quiet start to the week as the Dow fell 26 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  This could turn the summation index sideways.  Waiting on the Fed here basically.  I think that we are going to move up this week after the Fed.  Ideally I'd like to see us move towards new all time highs on light volume.  That would potentially set up the SPY May put trade.  Of course there's always the chance for a break out to the upside as well.  However we would have to see the volume pick up on any breakout.  GE lost a few cents on average volume.  Holding the 50 day moving average here so far.  No trades planned for GE at the moment.  Gold gained about $10 on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  The gold shares didn't follow as the XAU shed 3/4 and GDX was off 1/8.  Volume was pretty light though.  I don't have any trades in the pipeline here either.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The technical indicators have rolled over for the small stocks to a larger extent than the big caps.  However it does look like things could turn back up here.  That is a really short term view of things right now.  The Bollinger bands on some of the small stock indices are contracting.  This implies a pretty good move one way or the other.  Which way and how soon are the questions.  There is plenty of time in the May option cycle to put on a trade.  I think that I will let the Fed and the GDP report pass before trying something but my thoughts could change on that.  I do think that waiting to buy some index puts is the right move for now.  Foreign stocks were weak overnight but not excessively so.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.   

After selling off in the morning the Dow made a comeback and finished the day up by 21 points.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  Volume was light.  The summation index is still trending up.  It was a mixed bag as the NASDAQ was down almost 40 points.  We are getting a lot of crosscurrents with the numbers right now.  Earnings were poor for the over the counter crowd but that did not lead to an overall decline.  GE was lower on its announcement as well but it did not lead to big cap selling.  With positive breadth and the failure to sell off despite bad news, this market appears to be poised to head higher.  When bad news can't drive things down, what will?  Perhaps my view of getting the SPY May puts is simply wrong.  GE was off about 1/4 on better volume.  It did however finish well off of its lows set early in the morning.  Perhaps the market is telling us to get some calls here.  Gold dropped $15 on the futures as the US dollar held the 94 level and is headed back up.  The XAU lost 1 3/4, while GDX shed 2/3.  Volume was average.  If the dollar continues higher that will put a lid on gold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Small stocks down, big caps holding up and the TRAN higher as well.  The signals are as mixed as you will see them.  The overall breadth is implying higher prices and the summation index is still moving up.  With that we have to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls for now.  I think what happens when we get to the 2125 level on the S&P 500 may tell the story.  But that's a guess, nobody knows for sure.  The RUT was higher today as well so even the small caps are somewhat mixed.  I will say once again though that when the big caps are in the lead we are closer to the end of a rally than the beginning.  The timing for the completion of the rise is always the toughest question.  I'm guessing it will occur in the May option cycle but that could be wrong.  There is the possibility that we shoot through to new all time highs.  Volume would really have to pick up to make that happen.  I just don't see it at this point.  We've got the Fed next week and 1st quarter GDP.  Plenty to ponder over the weekend.  I'll be checking the charts to look for some clues as to what to trade next.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Falling from the recent highs today as the Dow dropped 113 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still moving up.  The small stocks showed good relative strength so I don't think that this is the beginning of something big.  But what do I know?  The short term technical indicators for the major averages have rolled over but remain overbought.  My thinking is that this is a pause and we will still head higher going into the end of the month.  I would like to see the 2125 level on the S&P 500 before trying the SPY May puts.  But the situation is fluid as always.  GE dropped 1/8 or so on better volume before tomorrows earnings.  Your guess is as good as mine as to what happens here tomorrow.  Gold was off about $5 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU rose a point and GDX added 3/8.  Volume was good.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  No news from the ECB today, just business as usual.  Still lots of time for the May option cycle.  The ideal scenario would be some type of negative divergence for the S&P 500 or the McClellan oscillator.  That would give us a signal to take the short position.  There is a possibility that we simply run up and blast through the overhead resistance as well.  However I don't think that scenario is the most likely.  With the TRAN and the NASDAQ trailing the big stocks, the picture isn't as bullish as it could be.  The volume would also have to pick up on a break out and volume has been lacking lately.  On the bullish side the A/D line has broken out to new all time highs.  You cannot ignore that either.  So as usual the trading is never easy.  I'm still considering the next trade but I am leaning towards the short side.  May generally shows some weakness at some point.  So we'll see.  Foreign markets were mixed overnight with somewhat of a bullish bias.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

We finished off the highs of the session but the Dow still managed a gain of 42 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  No real news to speak of.  The summation index continues higher.  We're still short term overbought for the major averages.  GE was flat on the day and the volume remains light.  Earnings out on Friday.  Gold was flat on the futures session but dropped in the aftermarket.  The US dollar held the 94 level once again and was higher on the trading day.  The gold shares had a one day reversal to the downside as they opened higher and closed lower.  The XAU lost 1 1/2, while GDX shed 3/8.  Volume was good.  No trades in mind here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not much else going on at the moment.  The extra week in the option cycle really adds to the premiums and makes trading early in cycle not the best idea.  Unless there is a really solid signal, patience is the prudent course of action.  There is no reason to trade just for the sake of trading.  I'm still leaning towards the SPY May puts in the next couple of weeks.  Foreign markets were generally higher overnight, with weakness in China.  We'll see what the ECB has in store for tomorrow.  

Overbought and staying there as the Dow gained 49 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The small stocks were laggards today and that's a warning sign.  But there is nothing to say that we can't go higher in the near term.  The S&P 500 has made it to the 2100 level with the next stop at roughly 2125.  That is where I will look at the SPY May puts.  Until then there is time to wait with an extended extra week option cycle for May.  GE was up a few cents and the volume here remains light.  Gold rose $16 on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  The dollar remains at support of 94.  That is the key level to watch.  A break below there could send gold higher.  The XAU rose 4 1/2, while GDX gained over a point.  Volume was good.  The gold shares are on another leg up but time will tell on how far we go.  Gold itself has yet to break out of a sideways trend.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Breadth for the overall market continues to make new highs.  That is one of the positives right now.  Now if the small stocks were breaking out as well, that would be very bullish.  But it has been my experience that when the Dow and the S&P 500 are leading the way, caution is advised.  That doesn't mean that we will drop tomorrow but when the next negative divergence sets up it may be worth paying attention to.  On the flip side, a high volume break through the 2125 level on the S&P would be bullish and SPY calls should be bought.  We will have to let the market tell us what it wants to do.  Patience, at least for this week, is warranted.  Asia and Europe were higher overnight, following the US market.  The ECB will issue a statement on Thursday.  That could be the next market mover.

Up we go as the Dow gained 106 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving up.  We opened lower and closed higher for a one day reversal to the upside.  The drop in oil did not affect the US market as it did the Asian exchanges.  We still have to get through the 2100 and 2125 levels on the S&P 500 to get the all clear.  The NASDAQ is lagging here and the volume is light.  Let's just say that I'm not convinced that we are going to break out to the upside immediately.  I do not trust light volume rallies.  GE was up 3 cents on light volume.  Waiting on earnings Friday.  I'm probably not going to try any trades here but you never know.  Gold was little changed despite a drop in the US dollar.  The XAU was up 1/2 and GDX was flat.  Volume was very light.  Gold should probably move sideways before the next move either way.  That's a guess as usual.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not much economic data due this week.  We will get an ECB statement later in the week.  The short term technical indicators remain overbought for the major averages.  We had a consolidation in price last week and we have now broken out to the top.  The problem here is that the volume is lacking.  I know I have said this repeatedly but it is important.  So we'll see what happens.  The weekly chart for the Dow has moved straight up and that will not last.  Even if the Dow was to hit a new all time high in the next few weeks it would not be confirmed by the TRAN.  The TRAN is well off of its all time high.  What I'm saying is not to trust this rally and be prepared to get short or buy some puts in the near future.  Europe was higher last night as it mimicked the Dow turnaround.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight action and go from there.

Just a bit of downside today as the Dow fell 29 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index continues higher.  We are overbought on the short term indicators.  However there is a potential negative divergence in the daily RSI for the S&P 500.  We will have to see if it pans out.  On a medium term basis, some of the indicators are over extended but others not so much.  It is going to take a lot more volume to get through the 2100 and 2125 levels on the S&P with some conviction.  It's possible that could happen but it will have to get going soon.  We are approaching the sell in May and go away time period.  GE was flat and the volume remains light.  Perhaps I'll attempt a trade here before the earnings numbers next week.  The more prudent course of action would be to wait for a signal though.  Gold was up almost $10 on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU rose 2 points, while GDX gained almost 2/3.  Volume was lighter than it's been.  Mentally I'm feeling not 100%.  Some kind of hay fever or something.  I don't know, I've never had it before but my mind is foggy.  We'll roll into the May option cycle Monday.  My confidence is down after the latest failed trade and that is never a good thing.  But you've got to move on.  The markets move along and we traders must do the same.  Plenty of earnings in the next few weeks and that will probably tell the story for the overall market.  The recent relationship with the price of oil and the Dow may have run its course.  At this point I really do not have a solid game plan going forward.  I suppose that the best idea would be to wait for a decent signal again and see if I can execute it properly next time around.  There is no hurry at this point to do anything.  Option premiums will be high.  It is most likely time to sit back and wait for the next perceived opportunity.  I'll be checking the charts this weekend as usual.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.  

It was a day to consolidate the recent gains as the Dow rose 18 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still moving up.  No volatility today as we traded in a narrow range for the whole session.  Price on the S&P 500 is right up against the top of the Bollinger band.  Upside could be limited from here for a few days.  The short term technical indicators on the major averages are back to overbought.  One thing lacking here is volume and that could be a problem down the road if it doesn't pick up.  GE barely moved and the volume was light.  Gold dropped $20 on the futures as the US dollar was up just a bit.  Gold was overbought and the dollar has risen the past 2 days.  The XAU shed 2 1/2, while GDX lost 2/3.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  Losing trades don't help the cause.  We've got option expiration tomorrow and then we roll into a five week May option cycle.  So there is no hurry to put on the next trade.  Not to mention that we are now in earnings season and markets get moved around by the numbers.  We won't get into the validity of the earnings.  We are only interested in what the price action is and how we can profit from it.  We've got resistance at 2100 and then 2125 for the S&P.  If we can get above 2125 there is no overhead resistance.  You can buy calls when we get through that number.  I do not know when that will happen but be ready when it does.  April is generally a positive month so maybe we can get there in the next couple of weeks.  That's a guess and we would really have to see volume pick up to have a chance at a break out.  Foreign markets were generally higher overnight.  We'll see how the expiration goes tomorrow.

Another strong day to the upside as the Dow gained 187 points on OK volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  The economic numbers were weak, oil dropped and the US dollar was higher.  No of that mattered as the Dow moved up.  The market moves in its own way.  I sold my SPY April puts for a 90% loss.  Holding puts during expiration week is like playing with fire.  It will work in severe downtrends but I got burned.  I should have dumped this position yesterday when it was obvious that the consolidation was breaking to the upside.  My trading tactics were poor once again.  The next stop for the S&P 500 should be the 2100 level.  GE was up over 1/8 and the volume remains light here.  Earnings are due here next Friday.  Gold fell over $15 on the futures with a stronger US dollar.  The XAU lost 1 1/2, while GDX shed 2/3.  Volume was average.  The short term technical indicators for the gold shares are overbought.  Mentally I'm feeling frustrated for taking such a big loss on the recent SPY put trade.  I somehow lost my sense of urgency yesterday when I really should have bailed out of the position.  Perhaps I was distracted by the dentist appointment.  Or maybe it was the case of being in the trade and wanting it to work at all costs.  It could have been a slight winner if I would have executed it properly.  The sideways consolidation with a dropping McClellan oscillator should have been a warning sign.  When the oscillator drops, price should go with it.  Other technicals were mixed or mid-range.  I suppose my interpretation was OK at the beginning of the trade but I didn't make the necessary adjustments.  It is simply another loser.  Now where do we go from here?  The May option cycle has an extra week in it so the premiums will be high.  May usually isn't a bullish month for stocks.  I'll have to wait for the next clear signal and go from there.  Foreign markets rallied strong overnight.  It appears as though we are beginning a world wide rally in stocks.  Most charts have turned up and the technical indicators have as well.  Perhaps earnings here won't be as bad as forecast.  But that is usually how the game is played.  Lower estimates are followed by numbers that exceed the negative predictions.  And the game goes on.  We'll keep an eye on things overnight as usual. 

The market took off to the upside today as the Dow gained 164 points on better than lately volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive.  The summation index is now heading back to the upside.  It appears that the market followed the rally in commodities, most notably oil.  My SPY April puts got clobbered.  There was a chance to sell them early with a slight profit but I did not take advantage of it.  It is now a cut the loss trade.  Holding on to puts with the expiration week usual positive bias is just plain dumb.  I should have seen the urgency to simply get out of this position.  My mind did not focus, for whatever reasons.  Stocks moved up across the board and that is a good sign for the bulls.  GE was up about 1/8 on light volume.  Gold and the US dollar both finished the session little changed.  The XAU rose 1 1/4, while GDX added a bit more than 1/8.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling off a bit.  Back from the dentist and not happy about hanging on to this losing trade.  3 days left in the April option cycle and it appears that we are going to break out to the upside from this recent congestion zone in stocks.  Unless we see a sharp turnaround tomorrow, the converging Bollinger bands are the precursor to an upside break out.  The small stocks are still much lower overall on a medium term basis than the big caps.  So it is possible that any impending rally is not to be trusted.  But first we need to get finished with this week and this trade.  The breadth recently has been decent despite the sideways to down action.  That should have been a clue that I paid attention to.  The bearish candlesticks on the S&P 500 the past 2 days have not panned out.  The short term technical indicators on the major averages have now turned back up.  I'm expecting higher prices in the near term.  We'll get some economic data out tomorrow along with the Feds beige book.  Regardless of the numbers, it should be interpreted as bullish by the market.  Asia and Europe were both higher overnight and I'd expect them to rally following the US overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

It was a one day reversal to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower.  The most watched index fell 20 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive though.  The summation index is still moving down.  The Dow was up 150 points in the morning but just like Friday, it could not hold onto the gains.  The small stocks showed relative weakness throughout the session and that was a key once again in my opinion.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  My SPY April puts are back in the black after losing half of what they were worth on Fridays close.  A moderate loss turned into a moderate gain.  That is the volatility of having a position during expiration week.  GE was off a few cents and the volume remains light here as well.  Gold found buyers for whatever reason.  The gold futures rose about $15 with a slight decline in the US dollar.  The dollar is at support of 94 and needs to hold here or there will be a pretty good drop in my opinion.  The XAU soared 4 1/2, while GDX gained 1 1/4.  Volume was OK.  The gold shares have broken out from the sideways congestion to the upside and appear to be on the next leg higher.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Only 4 days to go in the April option cycle so the risk is high as we saw today.  Things can turn around at any time.  Holding puts during the usually positive expiration week could be a recipe for disaster.  That said, when the Dow is in the lead it usually isn't bullish.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over for the major indices and are mid-range.  So things could still go either way here despite todays price action.  There are a couple negative candlesticks for the last two days on some of the charts.  But we haven't broken into a down trend yet.  So as usual there are plenty of questions and the April options are running out of time.  We've got plenty of economic data to digest this week and it is the beginning of earnings season.  Plus the Feds beige book.  So it should be an interesting week.  Throw in a dentists appointment tomorrow and I have my hands full at the moment.  Foreign market were generally higher overnight with the exception of Japan.  We'll see if they follow the US lower overnight.

An interesting session as the Dow gained 35 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still heading lower.  We opened the day strong as we were up 150 points in the morning.  But prices faded for the rest of the session until a slight comeback in the final half hour.  I can't say that I know what is going on here.  The breadth today was much better than a 35 point gain would suggest.  But I did notice early on that the small stock were lagging, which they did all day.  My SPY April puts are now slightly back in the black.  This has been an up and down trade for sure.  Looks like I'll be holding this position into next week.  GE was up a bit over 1/8 on light volume.  Gold rose $5 on the futures as the US dollar was lower yet again.  We are at support for the dollar here at around the 94 level.  We'll see if it holds.  The XAU gained 2 7/8, while GDX added 2/3.  Volume was good here.  The gold shares are trying to break through the top of the recent sideways pattern.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, could have slept more.  It has been a back and forth market all week and today did not establish a trend either.  April can have the habit of being sideways and it has played out that was so far.  I almost sold the SPY put position at a loss this morning but decided to wait and see how the day ended since the NASDAQ wasn't leading things higher for a change.  I do think that something is going to happen here soon because the Bollinger bands on some of the major indexes have converged to their closest level in quite a while.  That implies a big move one way or the other.  I don't know if it will occur next week but something is coming.  Better breadth today is a positive but the lack of volume certainly isn't.  We've got expiration week on tap and that usually has a positive bias.  There will be plenty to think about over the weekend.  I'll try and come up with some kind of game plan to exit the current SPY April put position.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

The back and forth continues as the Dow fell 174 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages have now rolled over.  That doesn't mean that we're heading straight down.  The small stocks continue to out perform even on the down days.  That tells me that the decline probably isn't going to be drastic.  It could all turn back up tomorrow, as that has been the case so far.  April is still viewed as a positive month for stocks.  My SPY April puts are back in the black.  If we get some follow through downside tomorrow, I should probably sell the position.  I can make a case to wait until Monday but the risk with only 6 days left increases with each passing day.  GE was off 1/4 on average volume.  Perhaps GE is telling the story after all.  Although the downside in the averages we've seen so far hasn't kept up with the pace of the decline in GE.  Gold rose $18 on the futures.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU added 1/4, while GDX gained 2/3.  Volume was good to the upside.  The drop in stocks probably contributed to the gains in the precious metals today.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I suppose I'm always feeling better when the trade goes my way.  But you can't fall asleep at the wheel.  The nature of the market lately has been a back and forth sideways routine.  It is a tough trading environment.  I suppose I could let the market action on Friday tell me what to do but I don't always hear what it has to say.  There's room on the indicators to go lower.  The summation index is dropping.  The volume is low indicating lack of interest.  So there are some reasons here to remain bearish.  But we do have expiration week coming up with its positive market bias.  The over the counter stocks are not as negative as the big caps.  You would like to see the little guys leading the moves one way or the other.   Plus the recent trading has been choppy and sideways.  That condition could simply continue, which frustrates both the bulls and the bears.  So it never is easy or just black and white in the game.  Last night Europe was lower and Asia mixed.  I'll keep an eye on what happens overnight and see if the downside from the US carries over.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow. 

The Dow took off to the upside today as it rose 112 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  This should move the summation index back to sideways.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow, with the small stocks leading the way.  My SPY April puts are back in the red.  I probably should have just sold them today.  Once again my trading tactics are weak.  Price would have to turn around tomorrow again for this trade to have a chance but I doubt it.  Oil rallied today and that along with todays gains should send foreign markets higher overnight.  We are seeing some back and forth in stock prices and it isn't uncommon to see April in a sideways pattern.  That doesn't bode well for trying to trade some type of extended move.  I'm still thinking that things will run up into the April expiration and then we'll see where we go from there.  GE was off a few cents on average volume.  Gold fell $5 on the futures as the US dollar lost some ground again.  The dollar is close to the low end of its range at 94.  I'd expect that level to hold but that's a guess as usual.  The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional gains on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling disappointed yet again for not simply exiting this SPY put trade.  The overall strength of the small stocks here is telling you that the rally is not dead yet.  I suppose I'm mistaking the weakness in the TRAN as a leader because that hasn't happened to the overall market.  The summation index also has a tendency to trend sideways in April and it appears that's what we are getting right now.  The weakness in GE also has not precipitated any lasting downdraft in the major averages.  GE led the way up but is not doing so as it heads lower.  But there are no excuses in the game.  Perhaps I can get to break even on this current trade but I wouldn't count on it.  What we don't have here is any kind of strong volume.  If that somehow picks up here it's possible that we can break through the overhead resistance in the S&P 500.  Hasn't happened yet.  Asia was mixed overnight and Europe was generally higher.  Oil had a big gain today and that should help the bullish cause overseas tonight.  7 days left in the April option cycle.  On to Thursday.

Heading lower as the Dow fell 133 points on still light volume although it was higher than yesterday.  The advance/declines were just over 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading down.  I do not think that this is the beginning of something big to the downside but I could be wrong.  April is generally a positive month for stocks.  The short term technical indicators are now starting to roll over for the major averages.  Perhaps we will make it down to the 200 day moving averages.  That would be the 2015 level on the S&P 500.  Or things could turn around to the upside tomorrow as you know how things go in this game.  My SPY April puts are back in the black.  I would like to hold them until Thursday but who knows?  GE was off 1/4 and the volume was lighter than yesterday.  I'm not considering any trades here at the moment.  Gold found a bid as the futures were up around a dozen.  The US dollar was up just a bit.  The XAU rose 2 points, while GDX added 5/8.  Volume was good.  Mid-range for the short term indicators here.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  I'm trying to decide when to sell the SPY April puts.  This week would probably be the most prudent as time is running out with only 8 days left to go.  Plus the usually positive expiration week is coming up.  We've got the Fed minutes tomorrow and that could get things going in either direction.  World markets are weak at the moment and that supports the downside theory.  The summation index has turned down and that supports lower prices as well.  But the moves lower in the markets are always quicker, with the turnaround rapid as well.  So we'll have to keep a close eye on the game for the rest of the week while in this SPY April put position.  I would like to give it a couple more days but I could decide just to bail out tomorrow.  Interesting game and a challenge as usual.  Japan has led the way lower overseas as the yen has rallied and negative interest rates there haven't spurred growth.  The NIKK looks like it wants to challenge the lows of February.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight action.

Lower to start the week as the Dow fell 55 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were close to 3 to 1 negative.  This should move the summation index lower.  But one day doesn't make a trend.  No follow through to Fridays positive action so we will have to keep an eye on things.  No market moving data out this week.  Perhaps the Fed minutes on Wednesday will provide some trading fodder.  My SPY April puts are still in the red but did gain a little ground today.  GE fell about 3/4 on good volume.  It was downgraded by the street today.  Perhaps GE will lead the way down as it just led the way up.  But that's a guess on my part.  Gold fell around $5 on the futures and the US dollar was off just a touch.  The XAU lost 2 points, while GDX dropped 5/8 on average volume.  Sideways on the gold shares for about a month now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Light volume means no interest, so perhaps we can see a multi-day decline for a change and I can dump my SPY April puts.  Of course the market never listens to me.  The TRAN is trying to hold its 200 day average here.  It too was a leader on the way up and perhaps now can reverse that role.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock averages remain overbought.  The small stocks held up rather well today and there cannot be any meaningful decline when the over the counter issues are holding up.  Perhaps we will simply remain overbought into the expiration next week.  As always the market will go where it wants.  Some foreign exchanges were closed overnight but the rest were generally higher.  NIKK stopped going down.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

It was another one day reversal to the upside as the Dow opened off over 100 points, turned around and finished with a gain of 107 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index continues higher.  There were no surprises in the employment report.  Overseas markets were very weak and the Dow followed that for about half hour.  But the money flowed into the US and stocks rallied for the rest of the session.  Overbought, staying there and we have now gotten through what I considered important for the S&P.  The longer term down trend line at 2060.  The volume was weak but I cannot ignore price.  My SPY April puts are now in the red.  In retrospect, I should have sold them this morning.  But I still can't believe that we are simply going to move higher despite the technical conditions that require some sort of multi-day pullback.  GE was up 1/8 on average volume.  It appears that GE is leading the way and there is no overhead resistance there.  Gold fell over $10 on the futures as the US dollar finished the session little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on lighter volume.  Mentally I'm feeling frustrated as the SPY April put trade has now moved against me.  As I said yesterday it looked like things could go either way and they did both in one session.  I suppose I just wasn't quick enough, again.  The market looks like it will stay more overbought for a longer period of time.  As foreign markets drop you would expect the US to follow suit.  Instead money is finding its way over here and the rally from February continues despite the technicals.  I am now getting the feeling that things will be run up again into the April expiration in two weeks.  I could be wrong.  The SPY April put trade is now a cut the loss proposition unless something dramatic happens at the beginning of next week.  I wouldn't count on that at this rate.  There should still be some beginning of the month positive money flows.  I'll be checking the charts and considering what to do next over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Some minor end of the month selling as the Dow fell 31 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The small stocks are showing relative strength.  We're still overbought and the market is still in an up trend until proven otherwise.  The employment report will be the mover tomorrow.  The market reaction to the numbers and not the numbers themselves will be the key.  We are right at what I consider the important 2060 level in the S&P 500.  My SPY April puts still are showing a slight gain.  That could all change tomorrow and most likely will.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was average.  Gold was up about $5 on the futures as the US dollar was lower again.  The XAU lost around 3/4, while GDX shed 1/4.  Volume was very light.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We should see some positive money flows with the beginning of the month tomorrow unless there is a surprise with the jobs report.  It still feels as though the market wants to go higher here.  So we'll see what happens.  I suppose things could go either way.  Some of the short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have been overbought for a month and a half.  This will not last forever but it sure seems that way.  There is a potential negative divergence on the McClellan oscillator with lower readings and higher prices.  If that plays out we will head lower.  But is a potential divergence, nothing has happened yet.  So tomorrow could set the tone for the days to come.  The overseas markets were slightly lower.  All eyes will be on Fridays employment report.

Upside follow through as the Dow rose 83 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  We had a gap higher at the open and I did purchase some SPY April puts in the morning.  They are slightly in the black.  I'm not exactly sure that this trade will work but we will know by the end of the week.  The 2060 level for the S&P 500 looks like the key close for the week for me.  If we are much higher above that level, the long term down trend line will be broken.  Things could go either way here so we will just have to wait and see.  GE was up 1/3 on average volume.  A gap up to start the day here as well.  If GE is a leader, the overall market will be moving higher.  Gold was off $10 on the futures despite a drop in the US dollar.  That is not a positive sign for the gold bulls.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on lighter volume.  These issues are taking a rest and that could be constructive longer term.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm giving the SPY April puts a shot here knowing full well that anything can happen.  We are still short term overbought and have remained that way for a long time.  That will not last forever.  The volume here is light and light volume rallies are not to be trusted.  We will have a potential negative divergence in the McClellan oscillator after todays trading.  The S&P is right at the long term down trend line.  It will either take a breather here or simply break through the line to even higher prices.  My thinking is that it will at least stall out but I could be wrong.  The employment report on Friday will most likely be the catalyst one way or the other.  I'd expect tomorrow to be a wait and see kind of session with light volume.  Although it is the end of the month and first quarter of the year.  Foreign markets were higher overnight with the exception of Japan.  We'll keep an eye on the developments this evening.

A one day reversal to the upside as the Dow opened lower and closed higher.  The most watched index gained 97 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index back to the upside.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow with the small stocks leading the way.  We are on the way to making new highs for the rally.  This certainly throws the purchase of the SPY April puts into question.  We simply could just continue to go higher.  Yellen spoke and the market responded.  The next market moving event should be the employment report on Friday.  GE was flat on the day and the volume was average.  Gold took off on the Yellen speech.  The futures rose over 20 bucks.  The US dollar took a hit as well, which supported the move in gold.  The XAU gained 3 1/2, while GDX added 1 1/8.  Volume was heavy.  The short term technical indicators have turned back up for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It really looks like all signs are pointing to higher prices despite the continued overbought condition of the market.  It is entirely possible that the S&P 500 will break through the longer term down trend line that has been in effect for about a year.  This would be a very bullish development if it were to occur.  The overall strength we saw today is a positive and I would expect some follow through tomorrow.  That may be the chance to try the SPY April puts but I will have to think about it tonight.  The market really has the feel of wanting to go higher now.  We also have the beginning of the month on Friday and that should have some positive money flows.  So we'll see.  there's also the possibility that this is the last gasp up to the longer term down trend line before rolling over.  However the action today sees to say otherwise.  Never an easy time of it in this game.  The foreign markets were mixed overnight with no big moves either way.  We'll keep an eye on things overnight and see what tomorrow brings.

Just hanging around as the Dow rose 19 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  Plenty of foreign market closures due to Easter.  Tomorrow we should be back at full strength.  Yellen is blabbing tomorrow, so the markets should move off of that.  I'd still like to try the SPY April puts but I'm not married to the idea.  I think that we could see some strength going into the employment report on Friday.  GE was up 1/3 on good volume for today.  That's a new 52 week high for GE.  If GE is a precursor for the overall market, then we will go higher.  Gold was flat on the futures but up a bit in the cash market.  The US dollar was lower today.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Sitting tight for now as the ideal scenario for the SPY put trade would be a rise into Thursday.  However we cannot rule out even higher prices going forward.  The long term down trend line for the S&P comes in at around 2060.  A rise to that level would be the best chance for the April puts.  At least that is my thinking at the moment.  A light volume rise here would be the best background for getting short.  We've got the end of the month and the quarter looming ahead of the jobs report.  All of the overseas markets will be back in action overnight.  We'll see how things react to what Yellen has to say tomorrow.

A one day reversal to the upside as the Dow opened lower and closed higher.  It finished the day with a slight gain of 13 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about even.  The summation index is heading sideways.  It's possible and maybe even likely that the decline we just saw is all we're going to get here.  I really can't say for sure.  I'm going to have to look at everything over the weekend.  It was a light volume week, so it is hard to figure out the price action that we saw.  I'm getting the feeling now though that this was just a pause before we go even higher.  I could be wrong.  GE was pretty much flat again on light volume.  Gold was off $6 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU rose 1 1/3, while GDX added 3/8.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  There will be plenty of time this weekend to consider what to do next week.  I now have mixed feelings as to which way to go next.  You can kind of make a case for either way.  We'll get the end of the month and the quarter to deal with.  Plus the employment report on Friday.  All the major players should be back as well.  I'll go over the charts and decide from there.  Europe and Asia were all lower last night.  Plenty of foreign markets will be closed on Monday.  So perhaps we won't get back to normal trading until Tuesday.  What I will try to do above all else is not make a trade just for the sake of trading.  I did not have any trades in the last option cycle and there is the chance that I'm getting a bit restless.  It still appears that despite the slight decline we are more overbought than oversold on the shorter term technical indicators.  Plenty to consider but for now it's Thursday afternoon before a long weekend.  Time for a break.

Heading lower today as the Dow fell 80 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative.  This could start the summation index to move sideways.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  So did I miss yet another trade?  Time will tell on that.  I'll probably still be looking to get some SPY April puts if we see some upside in the next couple of days.  I'd expect tomorrow to be pretty quiet, considering it's the day before a long holiday weekend.  But I could be wrong.  This could finally be the start of the long awaited rollover.  I don't expect any huge decline but at least something that could be traded.  Hopefully I'm not too late.  GE was flat and volume remains light.  Gold got hammered today.  The precious metal futures fell over $25 as the US dollar was higher again.  The XAU shed 5 1/4, while GDX lost 1 1/2.  Volume was good to the downside.  This looks like the rest that gold and the gold shares need to take.  Also right on time seasonally with the March time frame.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, not enough sleep.  Today does break the short term up trend line in some of the major indices.  So perhaps if we get a snap back to that line we will get the chance to purchase some puts.  If we simply head lower then the opportunity has been missed.  We'll see what the market does tomorrow and go from there.  Although waiting until next week may be the best course of action.  The overseas markets have been mixed since the bombing in Brussels.  We'll close out the shortened trading week tomorrow.  

Slight downside today as the Dow fell 41 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative but not in a big way.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  Considering there was another terrorist attack in Europe, the market held up rather well.  Usually a market that doesn't decline on bad news wants to go higher.  It seems as though we are in a holiday week as the volume is slow.  I'm now thinking of postponing the SPY April put trade until next week.  However if the S&P gets to 2060 I will have to rethink this.  We remain overbought on both the short and medium term.  GE barely moved and the volume was light.  Perhaps we can look for clues here as GE is about to make a new yearly high.  Would the overall market follow?  Gold was up a few bucks today but finished well off of its highs.  The US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on light volume.  There was no flight to safety for gold today.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We are still long overdue for some decline in stocks but there aren't any sellers out there at the moment.  There's only a couple of trading days left this week and it appears that we are in holiday mode.  Perhaps patience is required.  I suppose there is no point in trying to make something happen as the market seems to just be biding its time right now.  I'm still a believer in the SPY April puts at some point in time.  Europe came back from early losses overnight despite the bombing in Brussels.  Asia was mixed.  We'll keep an eye on what transpires tonight. 

A quiet Monday of a short trading week as the Dow gained 21 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about even.  The summation index continues higher.  I did place an order for the SPY April puts but canceled it later in the session.  I may try again tomorrow.  It's possible that we have a bit more room to go on the upside as the longer term down trend line for the S&P comes in at around 2160.  It's also possible that we simply remain overbought and plow higher as other indices have already moved past this resistance.  So trying this SPY put trade is not a slam dunk.  We'll have to see how things look tomorrow.  GE was up over 1/8 but the volume was light.  No trades here for now.  Gold was off $10 on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on light volume.  I still believe that gold and the gold shares need to take a rest.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Friday is a holiday so the trading this week could be slow and skewed.  We have moved into the April option cycle and therefore the premiums are still high.  The rally off of the recent lows has a similar look to it as the one last October.  It should be just about running out of steam.  Not to mention that the market will not remain overbought forever.  If we get to 2060 on the S&P 500, I will probably put in an order for the April puts.  It will have to be a short term deal.  We'll see what happens tomorrow.  The foreign markets overnight were generally lower but not by a lot.  It is holiday mode there as well, with most overseas markets closed next Monday as well.  So it most likely isn't a time to be making any major trades.  However as always the markets will go where they want.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and go from there.

The rally into expiration continued today as the Dow gained 120 points on expiration very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues to the upside.  Steadily moving higher for the major indices.  The TRAN continues to lead the way and was up strong again today.  Perhaps the SPY April puts are not the right idea here.  I did place an order for some today but wasn't filled as the market didn't get high enough for the price I was willing to pay.  I will probably try this trade again at some point next week.  It is strictly going to be short term in nature.  At some point you have to start to think that maybe we just keep going up.  However we have been overbought for a very extended period and that has to break at some point.  GE was pretty much flat on the day, volume was good.  Gold was off around $10 on the futures as the US dollar bounced back a bit.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  I really think that these stocks need a rest but just like the overall market they continue to be overbought.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We have gone practically straight up since the February lows in the Dow.  We are just around 50 points away from the long term down trend line.  The NYA and the TRAN have already made it through.  Some of the small stock indexes are nowhere near close to breaking their respective longer term down trend lines.  Usually a more sustainable rally has the small stocks firmly in the lead.  That isn't the case here today.  The advance/decline line for the SPX has made new highs though.  So we have some crosscurrents going on.  I don't think that we can just continue to go straight up but anything is possible in this game.  So there will be plenty to consider when checking the charts this weekend.  Not a lot of economic data out next week.  I'll try my best to try and figure things out for some kind of game plan.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.   

Still moving higher in an expiration week levitation.  The Dow gained 155 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were about 4 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The TRAN took off today and that's a positive.  The NYA is the first index to break its long term downtrend line.  Is this a sign of things to come?  Could be as we are still in the seasonally positive time frame.  Volume picked up today and that is a plus as well.  The only blemish is that the small stocks here are relative under performers.  I'm still considering the SPY April puts for a short term trade at the beginning of next week.  GE rose 3/4 today on heavy volume.  We could hit new yearly highs tomorrow.  Gold was off a couple bucks after yesterdays stellar gains.  The US dollar dropped over a point.  It wasn't a good sign that we didn't see gold rally with that drop in the dollar.  The XAU and GDX both shed around 1/2 on heavy volume.  Obviously we should have rallied on the weaker dollar here as well.  These shares are long overdue for some pullback though.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The expected stock market run up into the March expiration is appearing on cue.  It is a very interesting game to say the least.  We've been overbought here as well for longer than average.  So some kind of decline or sideways price action is long overdue here as well.  When it occurs I do not expect it to last long.  Will it be worth trading is the question we face now.  If we hold up into Monday, I may try the SPY April puts.  We'll let the market dictate if this happens.  I did miss out on gains that could have been had with the March calls.  However once we get to overbought, you never really know how long the market will stay there.  Having said that, we could see a drop at any time.  So I'm going to let the expiration pass tomorrow and focus on next week.  Foreign markets were mixed again last night.  We'll close out the week tomorrow. 

A Fed induced rally as the Dow gained 74 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  New highs for some indices for the move since the lows seen in February.  Breadth turned around to be pretty good.  I still expect more upside into the expiration.  The only warning sign here is the light volume that we've seen this week.  The Fed was dovish and we got the normal reaction.  Still overbought here though but that has been the case for quite some time.  No SPY trades in the making.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume remains light.  No trades for me here either.  Gold took off after the Fed as the US dollar dropped.  The precious metal futures were up over $30 in the aftermarket as the dollar dropped a point.  The XAU soared 4 2/3, while GDX gained 1 1/3.  Volume was very heavy.  Perhaps the recent sideways activity in this sector is all the decline that we are going to see for now.  Evidently this is where you would have wanted to be before the Fed.  Hindsight is never wrong.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not much else to say here as I'm waiting for a set up to trade.  The SPY April puts are on my radar but we will have to let this week pass first.  Although we got the rally on an easy Fed it wasn't the robust type that we've seen in the past.  I'm not sure if that means anything or I'm just trying to read something into it because I want to get some index puts.  So I'm still in a wait and see mode.  It isn't always easy to be patient but it is required at times.  Foreign markets were mixed overnight.  We'll see how they react to the Fed tonight.   

A mixed bag today as the Dow was up 22 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about 3 to 1 negative.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow, with both the S&P and the small stocks negative.  We did finish well above the lows for the session.  The summation index is still moving up.  It does appear that things are beginning to deteriorate under the surface.  I'm still holding out for higher prices this week though.  The NYA is right at the downtrend line that is almost a year in the making.  Other major indices are still shy of this important barrier.  It will bear close watching right now.  We'll see how it goes with the Fed tomorrow.  GE was little changed and volume was light.  Gold fell over $10 on the futures, while the US dollar was unchanged.  The XAU and GDX were up around 3/8.  Volume was average.  Gold should move off of the Fed as well.  Which way is the question.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Underperformance of the small stocks could be a sign of things to come if it keeps up.  The ideal scenario would be for a top to build here in the coming days and weeks.  But the market rarely accommodates our wishes.  I am looking at the SPY April puts.  The short term technical indicators are still overbought.  This condition has persisted for quite a while.  It will have to end at some point.  But if you have tried to pick the top over the past few weeks, you have been disappointed.  So we'll see.  I do expect some volatility post Fed.  It is simply wait and see time.  The overseas markets were lower overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.   

Waiting on the Fed would be the best way to describe todays price action.  The Dow added 15 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues higher.  I'm expecting higher prices this week as it's option expiration.  The next trade looks like the SPY April puts if and when we get to around the 2050 level in the S&P 500.  I do not anticipate trying any trades in the SPY this week.  Plenty of economic data out his week, with retail sales and inflation numbers.  As always, the market reaction will be the most important part of all this.  GE was off a few cents and the volume light.  No trades here for now.  Gold took it on the chin, losing over $20 on the futures.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU lost 1 3/4, while GDX shed 7/8/  Volume was heavy.  Gold and the gold shares appear to finally be taking the break that they need.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I suspect that we will continue our way higher to maximize the March calls.  The major stock indices remain short term overbought and have been for weeks.  At this juncture simply waiting for the market to hit the multi-week down trend line seems to be the best plan of action.  Or inaction as the case may be.  I would not be surprised if we headed higher tomorrow despite the technical conditions.  It is the reaction to the Fed that I believe will be the most important price movement of the week.  I could be wrong.  Foreign markets were higher overnight as the drop in oil was a non event.  Perhaps the market microscope is off that commodity now.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and go from there.