I think we can say that the decline in the stock indices is over for now as the Dow gained 273 points today. Advance/declines were over 5 to 1 positive and the volume was average. The summation index should start moving higher here. That's not to say that there won't be some down days going forward, there will. But I think the trend is going to be sideways to higher here for the next month or so. I look for another drop in the autumn and that should be a good longer term buying opportunity. I'm leaving in the open order for the GE July calls in case we get a drop in the coming days. GE was up 1/3 today on light to average volume. Gold fell $5 on the futures and a bit more in the aftermarket. The XAU was up 2 1/2, following the overall market. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume. The dollar fell pretty good today but it did not help the price of the precious metal. Perhaps the flight to safety trade is losing steam here with the stability in the stock indices. I canceled the June ABX call trade. I think that I will have to wait on the gold shares. Mentally I'm doing OK. We are right at the daily downtrend line in the stock indices. It looks like we will break through to the upside. If we continue higher I may attempt the OEX puts before expiration. We will have to get short term overbought and we are not there yet. I also think there is a chance that the volatility will slow down as we begin the summer. That will make the trading a lot tougher. But that's a guess. Let's see how we close the week tomorrow.

Opened higher and closed lower as the Dow lost 40 points on average volume. Advance/declines were about even. Hard to say what will happen next as we move sideways attempting to hold around the important 1060 level on the S&P 500. I still have an open order for some GE July calls. My thinking is that we will hold up here but that could all change tomorrow. Oversold on the daily charts of the indices. However the summation index continues lower and we haven't seen a selling washout that usually accompanies a bottom. Gold lost $15 on the futures but came back in the aftermarket. The XAU fell over 2 points. ABX and GG fell about 5/8. NEM dropped 3/4. Volume was light to average. I placed an open order for some ABX June calls. ABX would have to have a pretty good drop for this order to be filled. The daily chart isn't looking exactly bullish but if we get to the 50 day moving average line on a pullback, then I'm willing to take the risk. The dollar fell a bit today. There is still a lot of uncertainty out there. That's the feeling that I get. Mentally I'm a bit tired, could have slept better. Only a couple of days left in the week and who will be buying stocks in this atmosphere? So I have a couple of open orders out and we'll see what happens.

We bounced around a bit and closed higher on the day as the Dow gained 123 points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume picked up from yesterday. Could the decline be over? Perhaps. We have not exactly fallen apart here and technically we have every reason to. So maybe the sideways to upside action that I expect is going to begin now. That's a guess and it could all change tomorrow. However I did put in an order for some July GE calls. Yes, GE doesn't move around as much as the overall market as I've said before. But I'm going to give it a shot and see what happens. We're oversold on GE and today could have been the bottom with a hammer candlestick on the daily chart. We'll see. Gold was up a bit on the futures but fell in the aftermarket. The XAU gained 2 1/3. ABX and GG were only up fractionally after being much higher earlier. NEM gained 1 1/4. It was also higher early. Volume was heavy. It looked like almost a one day reversal to the downside for ABX. I canceled my open order for the June ABX calls. However there is still a buy signal on the Gold/XAU ratio. But the daily ABX candlestick chart doesn't look so good at the moment. Perhaps I'll try the calls again if we get to the 50 day moving average line. But again, it could all change tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. So these are interesting times no doubt. We should see some positive action in the overseas markets tonight and that should carry through to a positive open tomorrow in the US. In theory at least. 8 days left for the June options. Risky but I may still attempt something there.

The market tried to hold on all day but couldn't as the Dow lost 115 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. The S&P 500 closed below the 1060 level. We have crossed the zero line in the summation index. There are no compelling reasons to buy stocks here. In my mind it is a question of just how low are we going to go here. It will be interesting to say the least. We could really start to fall apart. Gold saw safe haven buying as it rose over $20 and is knocking on the door to a new all time high. The XAU was up over 3 points. ABX gained 1 3/4, GG was higher by almost 2 and NEM rose 1 1/2. Volume was average. I placed an early order for some ABX calls but it wasn't filled. I'm still a believer here though and am leaving in an overnight order for the ABX calls at a higher strike price. The Gold/XAU ratio remains on a buy signal even with the positive action today. I don't like to chase things but I'll make an exception this time. Of course it could just blow up in my face with less than 2 weeks to go in the June option cycle. Not to mention the possibility of a market free fall here that will take the gold shares with it. So we'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Looked over everything this weekend and decided that the gold shares were the place to attempt a trade. Might be too late, time will tell. Looking over the stock indices, I think that this will be the drop that will complete a 5 wave pattern to the downside from the April highs. That's what it appears to me. It will set up for some type of sideways or upwards trend for the beginning of the summer before we head lower again. That's my guess at the moment. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

I had thought that perhaps we would break through the daily downtrend line on the major indices. Wrong again. The Dow lost 324 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 8 to 1 negative. The summation index will be heading back down after today. Am I sorry that I wasn't filled on the OEX puts yesterday? Of course but there is nothing I can do about it today. Next week should be interesting. We are in dangerous territory technically so stay tuned. Gold held up today gaining $7. The XAU fell 4 points though. ABX and GG were both off 7/8, while NEM fell 5/8. Volume was average. The Gold/XAU ratio is still on a buy signal. My thinking at the moment is to purchase some gold shares calls on the downside follow through on Monday if there is any. Gold is holding up rather well considering the upside in the dollar. The dollar had another strong day today. Gold is not paying attention. I'll consider things more over the weekend. Mentally I'm still quite tired. I need some rest to clear my thoughts. The problems overseas and with the euro are affecting the indices here in the US. That uncertainty isn't going away anytime soon. We are at the 1060 level in the S&P 500 again and that is key. Monday morning will be interesting. I will need to be ready. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to get prepared. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We were up and we were down with the Dow finally ending up with a 5 point gain. Advance/declines were positive. Volume was average. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. The McClellan oscillator moved back into positive territory and the summation index moved higher for the first time in weeks. I did have an order in for some OEX puts today but it wasn't filled. We never did get all the way back to the daily down trend line. Perhaps we will with the reaction to tomorrows employment report. Maybe even break through to the upside. But that's a guess as usual. Gold fell $12 today and the XAU fell 3 3/4. ABX dropped 3/4, GG lost a buck and NEM shed 1 3/8. Volume was light. The dollar was up on the day. I still may consider getting long the gold shares for the June option cycle. The Gold/XAU ratio remains near the buy signal. But there isn't a solid technical reason so I'm holding off for now. Mentally I'm tired, did not sleep enough. Tomorrow probably will be an important day. We are close enough to the daily down trend line on the major indices that it very well may be broken to the upside. We also could fail here and head back down. The reaction or lack of to the employment report should be the catalyst. GE hasn't really moved much lately and I'm not thinking of trying a trade there again at the moment. So we'll see what happens tomorrow and if there is a trade there for me.

Back to the upside with a vengeance as the Dow gained 225 points. Advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 positive and the volume was average. The market is trying to hold on and it looks like it should succeed. But tomorrow is another day as we move back and forth here. We haven't made it to the down trend line yet but could tomorrow. I'm still leaning towards getting the OEX puts if and when that happens. However if we bust through the line on good volume, we'll know that the decline is over. Hasn't happened yet but it looks like it will based on todays action. Employment news on Friday. Gold lost $4 but the XAU was up 4 points following the overall market. ABX was up 1/2 while GG and NEM tacked on about a buck apiece. Volume looked a bit light there. You can't argue with price though. The Gold/XAU ration flashed another buy signal at the beginning of this shortened week. The dollar was up a touch today after being higher early. The gold shares continue to move higher but the volume has been light. No trades there for now. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well. We should get some upside follow through tomorrow. I believe that I'll try to get some OEX puts if we reach 503 on that index. That is the level where the down trend line comes into play. That's the game plan at the moment.

We started the week and the month to the downside as the Dow lost 112 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. I am waiting for a snap back to the downtrend line in the OEX but it isn't happening. It has the feel again that we are just going to collapse. We are in the technical territory that I explained before that it could happen. I hope it doesn't but anything could happen here. The OEX puts a very expensive so I didn't get any. I'd like to own some before Fridays employment report but it doesn't look like that will happen at this point. Gold was up $8 on the futures but the XAU fell a point. ABX up 1/2, GG up 1/8 and NEM up 7/8. All were higher earlier in the day but fell with the overall market. Volume was good. If we do get a collapse in the stock market, I'll look to pick up some gold share calls. The metal itself has held up pretty good with the stock market volatility. We'll see what happens. Mentally I'm feeling pretty good, slept well. So we are at the moment of truth again for the stock market. Will it hold up here? A solid break of the 1060 level on the S&P 500 with a close below that level will spell big trouble in my opinion. But I've been wrong before as readers of the blog are aware. So we'll see how it plays out. Summation index heading lower with todays action and about the cross the zero line. Dangerous times again in my opinion. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We bounced around lower for most of the day to end the month. The Dow lost 122 points and most of that was in the last 15 minutes. Advance/declines were negative and the volume was light. No follow through to yesterdays positive action. I'm still leaning towards trying the OEX puts if we make it back to the down trend line. But who knows? Maybe we will collapse before that happens. Or maybe the decline is over and we start a bit of a rally. No clear technical signals here. So it's even more of a guessing game than usual. Gold was basically flat again and the XAU fell 1 2/3. ABX off 1/3, GG down 1/4 and NEM led the way negative by over a buck. Volume was light. The dollar was stronger today. I have no solid idea of what to do with the gold shares at the moment. Almost back at a Gold/XAU buy signal. Gold has held up very good considering the damage done to the stock indices of late. But where we go from here is a mystery to me for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well. There are a lot of crosscurrents in the markets at the moment. Volatility has returned in a big way. A long holiday weekend is upon us. There will be plenty of time to go over the various charts and try to figure out what to do. There is a lot of uncertainty and the markets never react well to that. So I'll check things out over the next 3 days and go from there. But for now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We got a bounce today and in a big way as the Dow gained 284 points. Advance/declines were 8 to 1 positive and the volume was average. There will be no crash for now. The summation index looks like it will hold near the zero line. Unless we do a complete turnaround tomorrow and I doubt it, we should hold in here for a while. That doesn't mean we've seen the low for the year here. I expect more weakness later this summer into the fall. But that's just another guess as usual. GE was higher along with the market and I have no trades planned there for now after missing this upside move. Gold was flat today but the XAU was up about 5 points in sympathy with the overall market. ABX rose about 1/2, GG up 7/8 and NEM gained 1 3/4. Volume was light compared to lately. The dollar took a big hit today as the flight to safety trade wasn't popular today. ABX didn't move up as well as it should have considering todays market action. Thankfully I'm not in a trade there at the moment. Technically the gold shares look like they could still move higher here. However if we get a sustained up move in the stock indices, gold could lose some of its luster. Mentally I'm feeling OK. So what's the next move? My thinking at the moment is to get some OEX puts when we reach the down trend line that comes into play at about 505. If we get there and we are short term overbought, that will be the play. Could happen next week. That's my idea for now. End of the month tomorrow and a long holiday weekend coming up. I would expect volume to be light. I'd ideally like to have the OEX puts before next Fridays employment report. However the market is never that accommodating.

Opened higher and closed lower today as the Dow lost 69 points. That type of price action usually isn't a good sign. We were up well over 100 points early. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was pretty good again. We are oversold and not even getting a decent bounce. It could be dangerous to the downside here. We're about to cross the zero line in the summation index and a crash is possible. Normally there isn't even a threat of a market breakdown barring an abnormal event such as a terrorist attack. However we are now at a critical technical juncture concerning the market itself. We need to turn around in a hurry but I expect weakness tomorrow. We'll see. I still may be interested in the GE calls since GE is showing good relative strength. Gold was up $15 today but the XAU dropped 1/2. ABX fell 1/2, GG was flat and NEM lost 1/3. Volume was average. The dollar had another good day. Perhaps I'll try the gold shares here again but it's risky. However there is still a buy signal on the Gold/XAU ratio. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep enough. I really think that tomorrow could be a crazy day. We are oversold by all accounts here. I'll have to go over everything tonight and decide if I'll try the GE calls or the ABX calls. But if we do collapse it'll probably be a couple of days. Hopefully I'll be wrong as usual and the market will find its footing here. But I won't be surprised if it doesn't.

An interesting day as we opened very negative, down over 250 points and made it almost all the way back. The Dow lost 22 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were negative. I tried to buy the GE calls but my order wasn't filled. It came within a penny of getting filled but it didn't happen. I'm leaving the order open as I expect some weakness on Thursday. This is probably the start of a short term bounce and I'm not happy missing it but what can you do? Still oversold but when you have action like today, you expect some upside near term. If for some reason we start to drop again here then the market is really in trouble. Gold was up $4 and the XAU rose 5 points. I also was looking at the ABX calls but they never showed any weakness and I did not place an order. We actually could be starting another up leg here for the gold shares. The relative strength is very strong once again. One day we are weak on strong metal prices and the next day we are up on the gold shares without the metal participation. So it's a confusing scenario as well. ABX and NEM up 1 1/4, while GG gained 1 1/2. Volume was heavy. The Gold/XAU ratio signal was valid and it is still in place. I may try the ABX June calls, we'll see. If we get a reflex rally it could damper the flight to safety play though. So there are a lot of crosscurrents in all the markets at the moment. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep long enough. So I would expect some strong follow through to the upside tomorrow in the stock market. If we don't see that, then I would be concerned. Gold itself could go either way I think but it's all just a guess. The short term should remain volatile.

The Monday following option expiration is usually the opposite of what happens on the expiration itself. Today was no exception as the Dow lost 126 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. We are oversold and staying there for now which could be dangerous for the bullish cause. Due for some type of bounce though. The VIX was lower but so were prices and that doesn't add up as well. We are weak and there is no getting around that. I'm still pondering the GE calls for June but haven't made up my mind just yet. On the sidelines for now. Gold had a good day, up $18 on the futures. The XAU was flat. Another example of things just not adding up here. ABX, GG and NEM were all little changed after being higher early on. Volume was light. Still a buy signal on the Gold/XAU ratio. But when we have gold itself up almost twenty bucks and the gold shares don't do anything, it's time for caution I think. The dollar had a pretty good day as well. That doesn't mean that I won't try the gold share calls here but I'll have to let a base build first. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. End of the month coming up this week and a holiday weekend. Summation index still heading lower. Is there any reason to buy stocks here? I certainly don't know. Key support comes in at around 1060 for the S&P 500 in my opinion. I don't have a good idea of what to do here even after going over things this weekend. So I'll most likely sit it out this week. Maybe I'll see something going over the charts tonight but I feel it's time to be cautious. Option premiums are high as well. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Started to bounce today as the Dow gained 125 points on expiration Friday. Volume was very heavy again and the advance/declines were about 3 to 1 positive. Deeply oversold and the expectation is for some relief and we got that started today. How far we go higher and the strength of of the move is the question. I'd expect more upside on Monday. GE opened with a gap down and was much lower at the open. However my call ticket wasn't filled. GE came all the way back to finish up a dime but the options barely moved. I canceled the open order and will re-evaluate this idea over the weekend. Gold was off $12 on the futures. The XAU was up 1 1/4 in sympathy with the overall market. ABX and GG were flat after being down early. NEM gained 1/3. Volume was average. The dollar finished off a touch. Gold and the gold shares are short term oversold here but technical damage has been done to the recent up trend. I'll probably stay away from trading the gold shares here for a while but you never know. Mentally I'm doing OK. An interesting week just concluded but it wasn't profitable for me. I should have recognized the situation a lot better. So it goes. I expect that we'll mover higher here and at the least stabilize things for a while. But I don't see any great rally like we just witnessed from the March 2009 lows. I expect lower prices down the road which will set up a buying opportunity in the autumn. That's my guess at the moment. So I'll be checking the charts over the weekend and see if there is a trade for the June option cycle. Perhaps GE, we'll have to wait and see. When we dropped early today and the GE call order wasn't filled it sometimes tells you something about what is going on. GE may not have enough price movement to be a viable option trade. Things to ponder. For now it's Friday afternoon and the weekend is here.

It's liquidation mode as the Dow got clobbered and lost 376 points on very heavy volume. Advance/declines were over 10 to 1 negative. It's a run to the exits. Now we are deeply oversold and due for a bounce like we saw a couple of weeks ago when the Dow soared over 400 points in one day. The McClellan oscillator is back in that extended oversold range. I have an order in for some GE June calls to try and take advantage of the supposed upcoming bounce. It's entirely possible that we just continue to collapse here as well. That's because there are things going on that just aren't reflected in the technicals. We saw this before in the autumn of 2008. It would probably be wiser to just step aside here but I'm going to take a chance with the GE calls if they get filled. Gold fell another $5 and was lower in the aftermarket as well. No flight to safety there yet. The XAU was off 7 3/4. Still have a buy signal on the Gold/XAU ratio. ABX fell 1 3/4, GG off 1 1/2 and NEM led the way lower by 2 1/2. Volume was heavy. The gold shares have broken their up trend lines from the lows of February. Perhaps we'll get a snap back to that line but it looks like the gold shares are going to take a rest. We'll see. The dollar was lower today but it didn't help gold. Crosscurrents there at the moment. Mentally I'm doing OK. Option expiration tomorrow and that will have an impact on trading. I do expect strength in the market at the beginning of next week and that is why I've got an order in for the GE June calls. Again, this may not be the smartest thing to try considering my track record of late. Especially the latest ABX call trade just completed that blew up in my face. However when there is perceived opportunity I've got to try and take advantage of it. I could be wrong. The fear level has reached extremes but it could go even higher. So we'll see what happens tomorrow.

It was another downer as the Dow lost 66 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. We are in liquidation mode, for whatever reasons. Oversold and staying there which is never a bullish scenario. I still feel that there will be weakness into the end of this week but probably not enough to try the OEX puts with 2 days to go. But you never know. Summation index continues lower. It isn't a meltdown just yet but could be later this year. Volatility remains higher than average. Gold dropped over $20 today and the XAU fell 6 and change. ABX off 1 3/4, GG down over 2 bucks and NEM fell 1 1/2. Volume was heavy. My ABX calls got killed. It was a 90% loss. I didn't have a stop loss order in but it dropped so fast not even that may have prevented the devastation. But that's what happens when you trade the options during expiration week. It can work out big for or against you. The Gold/XAU ratio is back on a buy signal but there isn't enough time for the May option cycle to take advantage. I simply blew that trade. It didn't feel good when it got filled and time was not on my side. Should have exited yesterday but hindsight is always profitable. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. I really should just step aside here and let the May expiration pass. But I still think there could be a trade in the OEX puts if we get a bounce tomorrow morning. Very risky though and there's the problem of just trying to make back the money that was lost today. That is never a good strategy. I also expect a decent move to the upside on Monday. But it's all just a guess and my guesses haven't been right lately. The prudent path would be to sit out the next 2 days and take it from there. We'll see.

Opened higher and closed lower as the Dow lost 115 points. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative and the volume was good. Summation index still heading lower. The market just isn't going to cooperate for me to try the OEX puts. We are headed lower but subject to a bounce at any time. The risk of trying the OEX puts at this point probably outweigh the reward. We'll see but I don't think I'll be trying it. We are oversold but I would have to see a move back to the daily down trend line to chance the OEX puts. I don't see that happening in the next 3 days. Gold lost $13 on the futures but came back a bit in the aftermarket. The XAU lost 1 1/4. ABX was flat, GG lost 1/4 and NEM fell a buck. Volume was average. My ABX May calls are still at a loss. This is a trade that doesn't feel like it is going to work. The dollar is soaring and that is keeping a lid on the price of gold. I'll really need to be ready to dump this trade tomorrow. We did hold the daily up trend line in ABX today but any weakness tomorrow will break it. We'll see what happens overnight. Mentally I'm tired, did not sleep well or enough. The market cannot get any traction here and I am expecting lower prices going into the end of the week. But anything can happen in such a short time frame. My focus will be on ABX and the price of gold. If we get any type of strength early, I'll have to get rid of those calls. It looks from here that it will be a cut the loss trade. 3 days left in the May option cycle.

We were down for much of the day today but the Dow came back and managed a gain of 5 points on good volume. Advance/declines were negative. I'm expecting a positive bias for the beginning of the week. I would expect tomorrow to be an up day. My game plan is to buy the OEX puts at some point on Wednesday if we are higher. It's all subject to change and as usual I could be wrong. Often am. Oversold here and due to bounce again. Gold was flat on the futures but fell in the aftermarket. The XAU lost almost 4 points. ABX and GG were off around a buck. NEM dropped 2/3. Volume was average. I put in an order for some ABX May calls last night and it got filled this morning. I did not expect that. Not a lot of money in this trade and it is showing a slight loss. Risky, that is why I don't have the usual amount of money that I would normally trade here. This already has the feel of a trade that I don't want to be in. I'm out tomorrow or Wednesday. The dollar was much higher today and then moved all the way back. With gold weakness in the aftermarket, perhaps the flight to safety trade is being taken off the table. We'll see. Mentally I'm doing OK, did not feel well yesterday. 4 days to go on the May option cycle. So now I'm in the next trade and it may be that I am just late to the table on this. I like the OEX put idea for later in the week better. However the ABX calls will be the focus for now. We'll see what gold does overnight and go from there.

Volatility has returned as the Dow lost 162 points today. Advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative and the volume was average. I was hoping we would hold up until Monday but it was not to be. I still might try the OEX puts next week but the risk will be high. Again, the timing will have to be good to succeed. There isn't really a clear signal and the short term trades are not my strong suit. However, the summation index continues lower indicating that the trend is down. Gold was pretty flat on the day. The XAU rose a point. ABX up 3/4, GG up 1/4 and NEM up 1/2. Volume was heavy again. The gold shares opened higher, sold off early with the general market and then came all the way back. Who knows, perhaps I'll try the gold share calls next week. The relative strength remains strong. The volume in the ABX May 45 calls today was extremely heavy. That is where I will be looking but it may be too late there as well. The dollar was very strong today as well, which may have affected the price of the metal. We are overbought on the gold shares but have been for quite a while. Option expiration week is coming as well. It will be interesting. Mentally I'm feeling OK. There will be opportunities next week. Whether or not I can take advantage of them is the question. We all know that it won't be easy. With 5 days to go on the options, things will get compressed. I have the feeling that I'll be trying to do something though. I'll have to go over the charts this weekend and come up with a strategy for next week. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Selling in the last couple of hours took the Dow to a loss of 114 points. Volume was average and the advance/declines were negative. You had to expect that we weren't just going to go up in a straight line here. I do think that the OEX puts will be the next trade before the May expiration. The timing is the key. Perhaps today was the time to buy. I think the optimum scenario would be to purchase them early next week. So I'll be looking for the market to try and head back to around 532 on the OEX and go from there. Gold was off $13 on the futures and the XAU lost 3 1/3. ABX down 7/8, GG off 3/4 and NEM dropped 1 1/2. Volume was average. You've got to figure that the gold shares need a rest too but they have been so strong lately that any drop could be short lived. I don't know if I'm going to try a trade there in the next 6 days because we are overbought and have been for quite a while. But we'll see. The dollar was higher again today. Perhaps if we do drop next week the flight to safety trade will still be in play. Mentally I'm doing OK. So we've had a decent bounce in the indices and the next question is what's next? I would expect some type of retest of the lows of last week but I don't think it will be extreme. I'd like to see the VIX reach 22 in the next couple of days to attempt the May OEX put trade. That's probably wishful thinking. I think that I will let tomorrow pass and then look to do something early next week.

The Dow continued to move higher today with a gain of 148 points. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive and the volume was average. The market has a feel that it just wants to go higher. It's as if last week never happened. I certainly don't know what the reasons are. We've worked off the oversold condition. I sold the OEX calls I had at break even. Though it feels like we're going to go higher, the option premiums were not moving like I had expected. I was lucky to just get out. This was a trade that I should never have attempted. We had a huge move in the right direction and these options didn't show a profit. Gold was up another $22 today. The XAU only rose 1 3/4. ABX was off 1/4, GG was flat and NEM up 1/2. Volume continues very heavy. I am going to hold off on a gold share trade for now. They are overdue to take a rest. But who knows? There's still 7 days left in the May option cycle. The dollar was up a touch again today. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. I'm thinking about the OEX puts for my next trade, perhaps next week. Not exactly sure though. The McClellan oscillator is quickly heading back to the zero line. If we break through it, higher we will go. My thought is that we will stall there and head back down. But that's a guess. It is possible that we just go higher from here all the way through expiration but I doubt it. I'll be checking things over tonight and go from there.

We were lower, we were higher and we ended down on the Dow for the day by 37 points. Volume was good and the advance/declines were positive. I really don't know why I am still holding on to these OEX calls. They got to break even today but now they are back in the red. We are working off the oversold condition and I am quite sure there will be another run down in the indices before May expiration. Really need to dump them tomorrow. Gold was up $20 on the futures and is at an all time high in the aftermarket. The XAU was up 7 1/2. ABX rose 2, GG and NEM about 2 1/2 apiece. Volume exploded to the upside. The gold shares are the place to be. You cannot ignore price and volume. That is where my focus should have been. Another missed move for me but we've heard that before. The dollar was up a touch today. Gold has taken on a life of it's own. I suppose the next time the gold/XAU ratio is in the buy zone, I'll give that a try. Mentally I'm doing OK. Hopefully we'll get some strength for the indices on the open and I can get rid of the OEX calls. Probably should have just sold them today. We've already had the bounce. We'll see how it goes tomorrow but I'm not optimistic.

Quite a snap back rally as Europe cut a bail out deal over the weekend. The Dow rose 404 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were almost 10 to 1 positive. We were deeply oversold on the McClellan oscillator, so todays action was not a surprise. Where we go from here is the question. The OEX was up 20 points and my calls are still losing money. Bad timing there. I'm looking for some follow through to the upside tomorrow morning and then I really have to get out. There's a slight chance that I will hold them until Wednesday. But this obviously was an ill advised trade. Gold sold off hard early but came back to be down around $9. The XAU was up almost 5 points. ABX rose a point, GG up 3/4 and NEM tacked on 2 points. Volume was good. There remains interest in the gold shares. Perhaps that will be the next trade for the May cycle. The dollar sold off today as well but then came back. The gold share charts have worked off their overbought condition. There could be more room on the upside there. When I'm done with this OEX trade, I'll be looking there next. Mentally I'm a bit tired, could have slept better. So we got the bounce and it was a good one. I expected my OEX calls to make it back into the black but it didn't happen. This is a trade that I need to get out of due to the volatility in the markets at the moment. Perhaps tomorrow but Wednesday at the latest. Anything above break even would be considered a success.

A lower end to quite a week as the Dow dropped another 140 points. Volume was very heavy for the second day in a row. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. We're in a tailspin here and the volatility is incredible. It is a rerun of the autumn of 2008 at the moment. Very oversold and I am counting on a short covering rally here to exit my OEX calls. This should occur in a day or 2. The McClellan oscillator is blown out to the downside. A bounce is inevitable. It probably won't turn the OEX trade profitable but it should cut the loss. The employment report today was a non event with all the market turmoil here. Gold was up $5 on the futures and another $10 in the aftermarket. The XAU fell 2 3/4. ABX off 7/8, GG down 1/2 and NEM lost over a buck. Volume was very heavy here as well. The gold shares haven't been following the metal here and that to me is a warning sign. The dollar was lower today but it didn't help the gold shares. Strangely enough there is a buy signal right now on the Gold/XAU ratio. Either the gold shares are going to rally strong from here or the price of gold is going to drop. Stay tuned. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Obviously I should have never entered the OEX call trade but who knew that the market was going to implode? It is still being blamed on some type of order mistake or computer glitch. That doesn't make things any better though. So I'll have to mitigate the loss and I'll do that on Monday or Tuesday. I've checked my records and whenever we get readings like the ones we have now on the McClellan oscillator, there is a one day snap back move to the upside. I'm counting on that and expect to see it at the beginning of next week. Right now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break in the action. I'll check the charts over the weekend and get ready for Monday.

Volatility exploded today as we had a mini-crash in the stock indices. It is being blamed at the moment on a trading error at a major NYSE firm. The Dow lost 348 points today after being down almost 1000 points. The volume was huge. I can't get an accurate number right now on the advance/declines but suffice it to say they were very negative. The McClellan oscillator is now deeply oversold. It is in the area where a bounce should occur. With that in mind I actually purchased some OEX calls today. Not a wise move. They are showing a loss. This will be a short term trade of a day or two. We'll see. Gold was a safe haven play again as it rose about $20 and even more in the aftermarket. The XAU only gained 1 3/4 however. ABX and GG were up 3/4 and NEM rose over a buck. Volume was heavy. We are just about at another buy signal on the Gold/XAU ratio, even though we are overbought. The dollar continues higher as well. At some point gold will have to notice the dollar strength but the safe haven trade rules for now. We are now over $1200 on gold and obviously that was the area to trade. Still may not be too late. Mentally I'm a bit weary from todays action. Tomorrows employment report seem like an afterthought with all the problems in Greece. The prudent thing to do here probably was to stay on the sidelines. I didn't and it will probably cost me. That said, The McClellan oscillator is blown out to the downside here and a decent bounce should occur. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

Down another 60 points today as the tone of the market has changed. Volume was good again. The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is now moving down. Rallies can and will be sold. I will buy some OEX puts when we get a snap back. I would like to wait until next week but we'll see. The employment report on Friday will be the next event. I think that I will let it pass before taking on the next trade. Gold was up $5 today but the XAU fell 1 1/2. ABX and GG were little changed after being much lower early. NEM lost 3/4. Volume was average. The dollar continues higher but gold refuses to sell off. I'm still thinking of getting some ABX calls again but am holding off for now. It's a tough call there. We're working off the overbought condition but a stronger dollar will eventually have a negative effect on gold prices. The question is when? However with all the problems in Greece, the safe haven play of gold remains in effect. So it's a tough call one way or the other. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep enough. Volatility has returned and it makes things a bit more difficult. The speed of the game increases. If I had to guess, I think we're about to get some kind of bounce here. But I could be wrong.

Back to the downside as the Dow lost 225 points. Advance/declines were over 5 to 1 negative and the volume was heavy. I am going to say that the top for the stock indices is in for a while. The weekly charts show an A-B-C-D-E, 5 wave pattern from the lows of March 2009. Tops are made with volatility and that has certainly returned here. If we get any type of snap back move it can be shorted in my opinion. I'm still looking towards the OEX puts but it may be too late. Todays action should put the summation index in a clear downtrend. Gold dropped $14 on the futures but came back a bit in the aftermarket. The XAU fell a couple of points as the gold shares held up rather well, which has been the case as of late. ABX and GG were about flat after being lower early. NEM lost 2/3. Volume picked up. The dollar was up 1% on the day and gold finally reacted lower as it should. But the gold shares relative strength continues here, so I won't rule out another ABX call trade before expiration. Plus with all the uncertainty regarding Greece and the euro here, safe haven plays could be in vogue for a while longer. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. Volatility in the stock market has returned. It makes the trading game a lot tougher but when isn't it tough? Option premiums are raised during times like these which makes things more expensive. That in turn increases risk. There's a chance I may just let this week pass and wait until the employment report is digested. We'll see.

Starting the month of May on a positive note as the Dow gained 143 points. Volume was average and the advance/declines were about 3 to 1 positive. Back and forth we go here. Building a top or ready to go to recovery highs? That is the question here. Summation index is trying to break down but it hasn't yet. Actually more oversold than overbought here. I'm not exactly sure what to do here but I'm leaning towards the OEX puts near the end of the week. That's todays guess. Employment report on Friday. Gold was up a couple of bucks today but the XAU fell 2 1/2. ABX off 3/4, GG down 1/2 and NEM lost over a buck. Volume was light. Gold remains strong with the dollar rising as well. The gold shares diverged today from the metal and that could be trouble. Or not. We may have just taken a day off from the uptrend. Overbought here though on the gold shares. However volume was light on the pullback. I'm still considering buying some ABX calls again before expiration. Risky though. We'll see. Mentally I'm doing OK, could have slept better. Was today beginning of the month money flows or something more? Lots of questions here and that isn't usually conducive to profitable trading. I'm still leaning towards the OEX puts before the employment report but we'll see. Gold is overbought but it looks like it wants to try new highs. A lot to think about as usual but I don't see any clear picture as to what to do just yet.

Back to the downside with a vengeance as the Dow lost 158 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. More bad news for Goldman Sachs is the excuse. Perhaps locking in some monthly profits at the end of April. Today solidifies my idea of purchasing some OEX puts. I will most likely do so on some strength next week if we get any. Summation index should be moving lower. The weekly candlestick charts for the major indices will have bearish engulfing candles. I think lower prices are ahead. Gold continues to find buyers as the metal rose $12. The XAU was only up 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on good volume. They were all higher early. I still may purchase some gold share calls if they ever pull back here. However ABX is at the top of its trend channel on a daily basis. So it may be time for a break. Still, you cannot deny the relative strength of the gold shares here. Obviously I should have held those ABX calls longer. Mentally I'm doing OK. So the week has ended and the tone of the market in my opinion is changing. If we get any kind of bounce back up next week, I believe it can be shorted. At some point next week I'm going to try the OEX puts. The gold shares may have to wait. I'll have to check the charts over the weekend and go from there. For now it's time to take a rest.

Continuing to the upside as the Dow gained 122 points. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive and the volume was good. That 200+ point decline on Tuesday? Forgotten for now. The summation index will be moving sideways once again. Hard for me to make out exactly what is going on here. Sell-offs don't have any staying power. Are we going back for new recovery highs? Seems like it. I'm still thinking about getting the OEX puts when and if we get overbought next week. Gold was off $3 but the XAU rose 2 points. ABX and NEM both had more gains but GG not as much. GG disappointed on its earnings report. Volume was above average again. We are overbought here now on the gold shares but staying there. I may try the ABX calls again if we get some weakness. The gold shares continue to outperform the metal. The volume continues to be good to the upside. Money is flowing into gold assets. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. GDP tomorrow and that will be the early market theme. I'm considering leaving in an order for some OEX puts but I think I'll wait until next week. Plenty of time remains on the May option cycle. Still thinking about the last ABX call trade but trying not to dwell on it. It's where we go from here that matters.

Got a bounce back today as the Dow gained 53 points on good volume. Advance/declines were positive. The Fed said nothing new and the market was in positive territory for much of the day. Spain has joined Portugal with a downgrade of its debt and that has led to some jitters. Getting short term oversold here but I'm still leaning towards the downside. The summation index is starting to head lower. We do have the beginning of next month approaching and that could lead to positive money flows. So it's a mixed bag but I'm thinking of perhaps some OEX puts before the employment report. We'll see. Gold was up $11 on the futures and the XAU rose 4 3/4. ABX, GG and NEM were all up around 1 1/2 on heavy volume. The ABX earnings were stellar. I sold my ABX calls for about a 120% profit. It wasn't a good trade. I could have done better had I held them longer during the day. Money continues to flow into gold due to the foreign debt uncertainty. Those problems are also supporting the dollar which was up a bit again today. The gold shares continue to outperform the metal itself and that's a positive. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep enough. I'm disappointed in the ABX trade. Even though I was aware of the earnings coming out, I really wasn't mentally prepared. I still think there is room to run here on the upside for the gold shares. I might even try them again in the May option cycle. However that trade is done and it's time to move on. OEX puts perhaps. I'll be checking the charts tonight.

The Dow got clobbered today as testimony from the executives at Goldman Sachs took center stage. The Dow lost 213 points on very heavy volume. Advance/declines were over 4 to 1 negative. Could this be the start of a multi week decline? Perhaps. It certainly is overdue. There were concerns over Portugals debt today also. Maybe they will be joining Greece as the reason for the fall in the Euro. Todays action was negative and we'll see if there is some follow through tomorrow after the Fed announcement. Gold was higher today, up $8 and higher in the aftermarket. However the XAU lost 1/2. ABX and GG had fractional gains, while NEM was flat. Volume increased. The gold shares held up rather well considering an over 200 point down move in the stock market. The dollar had a very good day as well and gold rose anyway. These look like flight to safety plays. NEM had great earnings but the stock did nothing and was down most of the day. ABX reports tomorrow and I'll hope it doesn't do the same thing. My ABX calls are still in the black. Gold looks like it is breaking through $1160 in the aftermarket as well. So decisions will have to be made tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept good enough. My eyes will be on the ABX reaction to the earnings tomorrow. The gold shares showed great relative strength today compared to the overall market and that can't be ignored. However I also cannot hold on to this trade forever either. The technicals are not overbought yet for ABX. Which makes it easy to continue to hold it here. But the dollar is rising and that isn't good for the price of gold, despite todays action. Plenty to think about as I wait for tomorrow morning.

The Dow ended flat for the session, after being positive for much of the day. Advance/declines were negative and the volume was average. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. The Fed is meeting this week, with the announcement on interest rates to come on Wednesday. The market could be in a holding pattern until then. We've got the end of the month coming up on Friday as well. We're a touch overbought here. I do expect weakness by Friday but perhaps we won't wait that long. That's a guess. Gold was flat today as well as the XAU. ABX, GG and NEM all didn't do much and the volume was extremely light. The dollar didn't do much today either. My ABX calls are still slightly in the black. Earnings on Wednesday and that should be the exit date. We'll see. NEM reports tomorrow. Gold hasn't made it through $1160 but if it could it would help the bullish case. Plus it would probably help my ABX calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept good. So it's a waiting game until Wednesday morning and then how ABX reacts to the earnings. Not to mention how I react to whatever happens. That's probably the more important piece of the trading puzzle. And we have the Fed to contend with. So it will be an interesting week.

Overbought again on the Dow as we gained another 70 points today. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. Volume was average. I was expecting some weakness at the end of the week and all we got was a hundred points down early Thursday morning that was quickly erased. Hard for me to figure. You can't ignore the price action though. We are just about at the 200 day moving average for the S&P 500. That should be a barrier to further upside next week. But who knows? Gold was up over $10 and the XAU rose 1 7/8. ABX, GG and NEM only managed fractional gains to the upside on light volume. This is worrisome. When the major gold shares can't rally when the metal itself moves higher, it isn't a good sign in my opinion. The dollar was lower today as well but all we got were fractional moves higher. My ABX calls are showing a slight profit but it is tenuous. The overall market is overbought and any drop will affect the gold shares. Earnings are out for ABX before the bell on Wednesday and that is the key. The technicals look OK, we're not overbought as yet. If gold could bust through $1160, that would be a plus. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep enough. The market continues to defy logic here but it must be respected. Nothing seems to be able to bring it down. Not even for a few days. Eventually something will be a catalyst for a multi week downtrend. However we haven't seen it yet and the trend remains up. Bad news is ignored and that is bullish. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend. The game plan for now is holding the ABX calls until the earnings on Wednesday. But for now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The market tried to sell off once again but we came back for a gain of 9 points on the Dow. Volume was good and the advance/declines were positive. The market tanked early, down over 100 points. Somehow it rose steadily from the bottom for most of the session to get positive. I expected some weakness but it didn't hold. I'm still thinking that we are building a top here. Summation index moving sideways. Gold sold off early as well and ended with a loss of $6. We were down over $15 there early. The XAU gained almost 2 points as the gold shares outperformed the metal. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains to the upside on light volume. The gold shares continue to show good relative strength vs. the S&P 500. The dollar was up again today as well but the gold shares managed gains. Volume is lacking though. My ABX calls moved slightly into the black. The game plan of waiting for the earnings next week is still in place for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I'm still expecting some near term weakness for the stock market but the market itself is saying otherwise. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The Dow ended the day up 7 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. We opened higher but then dropped about 50 points in the afternoon. A late day comeback pushed us into positive territory. Tough to say what's going to happen next but I would not be surprised by some weakness for the end of this week. It's possible that we are finally building a top here. I could be wrong and often am. Gold was up $9 but the gold shares lagged again. The XAU was up just 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume. My ABX calls are still in the red. The gold shares should be rallying on positive movement in the price of gold. The fact that they're not is worrisome. The dollar continues higher as well, which normally isn't supportive of gold. On the plus side the gold shares at least showed good relative strength today compared to the rest of the market. It looks like I'll be holding the ABX calls until the earnings next week barring a catastrophe. Mentally I'm feeling OK, could have slept better. The market seems to have shrugged off the Goldman Sachs news and hasn't fallen apart as yet. The summation index continues sideways for now. But all that could change on a dime. But it hasn't and that is important as well. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

The Dow gained 25 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. Today the overall market was much stronger than the Dow. I'm not exactly sure where we're headed from here. There was no downside follow through so the trend remains up for now. Summation index heading lower though. So we have conflicting data at the moment. No OEX trades for now. Gold was up $3 but was higher early. The XAU dropped 1/2 after being higher as well. ABX and GG were flat and NEM lost 3/4. All were higher early too. Volume was very light. My ABX calls are in the red. This trade is looking very shaky. The daily chart now looks like it's headed lower. I'll give it a bit more time. The dollar was up fractionally today but is moving sideways. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep good. So where do we go from here? ABX earnings are out in a week. Can I hold on that long? Is there any reason to own gold here? We could just hang around until next week with the gold share earnings due then. Time decay will affect the option premiums. On the plus side, there is an extra week in the May options cycle. But unless we see some upside in ABX, this trade will be a loser.

The Dow bounced back today, up 73 points. Advance/declines were negative and the volume was good. The overall market was weaker than the Dow and that isn't a positive going forward. Also the Monday following option expiration is usually the opposite of the Friday action, for whatever reasons. This happens more often than not. So tomorrows price movement is very important for the near term direction of the market. Gold lost a buck today but was lower most of the day. The XAU dropped 1/4. ABX, GG and NEM were mixed with slight moves after being down early. The volume was very light. The dollar was higher today. My ABX calls are break-even at the moment. They were showing a loss early. Tomorrow will be key here as well. If we see some gains for the gold shares, then this trade has a chance of working out. If we're lower this trade probably isn't going to work. Earnings are out next Wednesday, which seems like an eternity today. I'll have to mull things over tonight. Mentally I'm feeling good, slept well. I'm not a believer in the market rise today but I hope that I'm wrong, only because I have the ABX trade going. The weekly gold share charts don't look positive unless we turn around here. The daily charts look better for the bullish cause. But the market will go where it wants. Certainly we're overdue for some downside. Tomorrow is important, short term. We'll see what happens.

Well we got some downside today as the Dow lost 126 points on very heavy expiration volume. Advance/declines were over 3 to 1 negative. Goldman Sachs is being charged with fraud by the SEC. That's the catalyst for today. Will it lead to an extended decline? It could, since we have been so overbought for so long. The summation index should be moving down after today's action. But it could also just be a one day wonder. Time will tell and we'll see how it plays out. Gold took a hit as well, off $23. The XAU lost 4 3/8. ABX and NEM dropped 7/8, while GG fell 1 1/4. Volume was good. The dollar showed strength today. The weekly charts for the gold shares are bearish with today's price movement. My open order for the May ABX calls was filled. I did not expect that today. It is actually showing a slight profit because we came off of the lows of the day. I will have to reassess this trade over the weekend. The environment has changed. Mentally I'm feeling OK, could have slept better. Next week should be interesting. The market has been able to shrug off bad news for the past 3 months. That may change with today's developments. There will be a lot to ponder and I am in another trade. So lots to think about. However now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break in the action.

The Dow gained another 21 points today. Advance/declines were slightly negative and the volume was good. Overbought, staying there and this is turning into a broken record. There hasn't been any weakness to speak of in weeks. How long will this go on? Who knows? The technicals don't work when you're overbought for weeks on end. Summation index still moving sideways as prices rise. That will roll over at some point and then we will have some downside. Gold opened lower but finished unchanged. The XAU lost 1 3/4. ABX and NEM had fractional losses, while GG was flat. Volume was light. The dollar gained ground today. I placed an order for some ABX May calls. We'll need to see some weakness for it to get filled. Perhaps next week. Of course I could change my mind depending on what the market does. Mentally I'm feeling good, slept well. April option expiration tomorrow. We'll see what happens. I would expect to see some type of pullback in the market but I've said that time and time again lately. It's been an incredible run to the upside. But it won't last forever.

The Dow gained 103 points on good volume. Advance/declines were about 3 to 1 positive. The S&P 500 crossed the 1200 barrier. Higher and higher we go. Expiration week certainly helps. The volume has been good this week and that's a bullish sign. It seems like there is nothing to stop this rally but we won't remain overbought forever. Gold was up $6 and the XAU rose a point and change. ABX, GG and NEM were mixed with fractional moves on light volume. The dollar was lower. I'm still thinking about getting some ABX May calls. Earnings are out in the last week this month. We're overbought here as well. I'll probably try it on a pullback if we get one. There wasn't any follow through upside today for the gold shares. It could be a short term negative. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. We are going to get some negative divergences in the McClellan oscillator unless the market really takes off to the upside. I do not see that happening, with the summation index so high already. So regardless of the markets momentum to the upside here, I'm actually feeling cautious. That's what makes it tough to try the gold share calls. We'll see what happens.

The Dow managed another 13 points to the upside today on average volume. Advances barely beat out declines. We sold off early and came all the way back. Still overbought and have been for quite a while. It is option expiration week. Summation index moving sideways but prices remain moving higher. No OEX trades for now. Gold lost $8 today and the XAU dropped 1 1/4. ABX and GG had fractional losses, while NEM was up 1/4. Volume was light. It's possible that today was the day to get long the gold shares. We were lower early in the day and came back. The rest of the weeks action will determine if today was actually the day to get long. There hasn't been much volume or price movement on the down days. Mentally I'm feeling tired and unfocused. I need to get back into the proper frame of mind to trade. I've been distracted lately and there will be no success in that type of atmosphere. I realized this, did not try to push it and will go from here.

The Dow gained 8 points to crack the 11000 level today. Volume was average and the advance/declines were positive. We were higher for most of the day. The overall market was stronger than the Dow, which usually means higher prices are ahead. We are just about at the 1200 resistance level on the S&P 500 though. However there is the positive bias of option expiration week as well. We'll see how it all shakes out. Gold was off about $6 today and the XAU fell 2 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on average to light volume. The dollar was lower today but it didn't help gold. We've seen some crosscurrents there lately with that relationship. I'm still looking at the May ABX calls. I need to see the overbought condition worked off first though. We could be in that process now. Mentally I'm feeling tired and haven't been as focused as I need to be. Therefore I don't anticipate any trades until later this week or next. There's still a lot to consider. So for now it's the sidelines.

3 points shy of Dow 11000 as we gained 70 points today. Should pass that milestone on Monday. Volume was average and the advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. Expiration is a week away and that should continue with its usual positive bias. Higher we go and there seems to be no end in sight. But there will be. When that occurs is anybodies guess. Summation index still moving sideways. When that starts to drop, we'll have our sell signal. Gold tacked on another $10 and the XAU was up a point. ABX and NEM had fractional gains, while GG was flat. Volume was average. I'm looking at the ABX May calls on any weakness. The dollar was weaker today and it looks like it is about to break a multi-week uptrend line. That should support the price of gold. We are getting overbought on the gold shares here but we know that it can last for a while. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling better, slept well. The weekend is upon us. I'll be checking the charts as usual. I think gold is the place to be and will try to enter into a position next week. I am late but there still could be plenty of room to the upside, provided we get a pullback. That's my guess at this point. Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A one day reversal to the upside as the Dow opened lower and closed higher by 29 points. Volume was average and the advance/declines were positive. The market tried to sell off early, held and came back. We are still below 1200 on the S&P 500 and that level will be key to get through if the rally is to continue. Summation index moving sideways. I think we are simply marking time on the summation index until we head lower. The reading is very high. We'll see. Gold was flat today and the XAU as well. The gold shares were mixed on average volume. I dumped the ABX puts for a 55% loss. Thankfully there wasn't a lot of money in that trade and rightfully so. But it is another loss which seems to be the theme here for quite a while. That trade was a loser from the start. The trend there is up and I'll continue to monitor the May calls for an entry on a pullback. However if the overall market rolls over, it probably will take the gold shares with it. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep enough. 6 days in the April cycle and I get the feeling we will try and test the 1200 for the S&P 500. I hopefully won't be doing anymore trades for this option cycle but you never know. May has an extra week on the options. So I'll move on from this trade and look for something else.

A bit of volatility today as the Dow fell 72 points today on better volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. We sold off more than a hundred at one point. I thought we would be higher today and then drop but wrong again. I'm not looking for any big decline here but I suppose anything could happen. However with expiration next week I would expect a positive bias at least until that's over. We'll see. Gold had a good day, up $17. The XAU rose 3 1/2 points. ABX up 1 1/4, GG up 1 1/2 and NEM up 7/8. Volume increased. It looks like we are breaking out to the upside from the long consolidation. My open order for ABX puts was filled near the open and it's a loser. I should be cutting the loss tomorrow unless we get a complete turnaround to the downside. And I doubt that. The gold shares showed great relative strength today compared to the overall market. The dollar was higher but gold rallied anyway again. You cannot fight that. This was a short term trade and I was wrong. Mentally I'm doing OK, could have slept better. So it looks like another losing trade. In retrospect, I should have stuck with the May gold share call scenario. And I still might. I looks like any weakness in the gold shares can be bought here. I may give that a try if the opportunity presents itself. I really need to stick to the longer term trades because I usually do not do well on the shorter term ones. This is a lesson that needs to be learned. I also probably should have just exited the ABX put trade today when I saw that it was going to be a loser. Sometimes you're just wrong, as I was today. We'll see how things open tomorrow and go from there.

The Dow lost 3 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. I've got to say that even average volume is pretty light these days. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. That portends higher prices ahead usually. We continue to grind our way higher. Not much data out this week. I don't want to get too complacent but it is April. Sometimes not much happens during this time of year. Gold was up a couple bucks even with a stronger dollar. The XAU lost 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. I'm going to try the puts here on the gold shares. I put in an open order for some ABX puts last night and I am leaving that order in. This would be a short term trade in the April option cycle. Longer term , I still like the May gold share calls. For now we are overbought on the gold shares and it looks like the dollar could be turning around from its recent weakness. We'll see. Not a lot of money in this trade and it needs to be filled tomorrow in my opinion at the moment. My thinking is that the overall market will be higher taking the gold shares with it. Then the ideal scenario would be a pull back into the end of the week. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. So I'm going to try this trade for tomorrow and go from there. It's risky but all trades are. I think it has a chance for success. We'll know more with tomorrows market action.

An upside start to the week as the Dow gained 46 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. It looks like we are breaking out to the upside from the 3 week sideways action. The small stocks are strong and leading the way. The trend remains up until further notice. The rally continues with no end in sight. We will be hitting resistance in the S&P 500 at 1200. But at this rate, we should eventually work through it. Gold was up $7 today and the XAU gained 1 3/4. ABX up 1/4, GG was flat and NEM gained 7/8. Volume was anemic. That has been the problem with this rally in the gold shares. The volume is light. I don't trust light volume rallies. In fact, I'm even considering getting some puts on the gold shares here. The dollar was flat today but with interest rates rising in the US, I don't see a big drop there. We've moved to overbought on the gold shares as well. Only 9 days remain in the April option cycle. We'll see. Mentally I'm doing OK. A bit confused as to what to do here, with regards to an April option cycle trade. The risk is high and I don't have any clear signals as of yet. I may have to stay on the sidelines. I think my focus is a bit off right now, for whatever reasons. I'll work on things this evening and go from there.

The Dow gained 70 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. We opened higher, sold off and came back. Really not sure what that means as we await the employment report. Beginning of the month money flows perhaps? Summation index still going sideways. Tomorrow's a holiday, beginning a long weekend. The stock indices have moved sideways for 3 weeks. The employment report could provide the catalyst one way or the other. We'll know on Monday morning. Gold was up again, adding another $11. The gold shares continued to outperform with the XAU up 6 points. ABX up a point, GG up 1 1/2 and NEM up 2. And yes, it looks like I missed it. Volume was a little better today and that has been the one thing that's been missing in the rise of the gold shares this week. Gold itself is at resistance of $1130. If we get through there, the trend will be confirmed to the upside. The dollar was weaker again today, supporting gold. It really looks like this rally in the dollar is over, completing a 5 wave pattern to the upside on the daily charts. There is also a negative divergence in the RSI. I saw this a week ago but did not act on it. Now that it seems legitimate, any weakness in the gold shares next week could be an opportunity to buy. Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated for the potential gold share miss. That's what previous bad trades will do to you. They sometimes have a negative carryover effect. The trade potential is there but you don't act on it. Again, there is no one to blame but myself. I'll try and banish those thoughts over the long weekend. I'll be going over the charts but with only 2 weeks in the April cycle, the risk is elevated. That's why May could be a better play. At any rate, I'll await the employment report tomorrow morning. Right now I'm going to take it easy, regroup over the weekend and come up with a game plan for next week.

We ended March with a down day as the Dow lost 50 points. Volume was average and the advance/declines were negative. Summation index still in a sideways channel but if we get another down day tomorrow it could start to break down. I don't get the feeling it will though. The Dow was weaker than the overall market today. Still in a wait and see mode with the employment report on Friday. No OEX trades for me here. Gold was up $8 today and the XAU gained 1 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all had slight or modest gains on light volume. I would still like to get long the gold shares if we see some weakness in the next week or so. We've moved up from oversold territory so patience will be necessary. The dollar lost some ground today but the gold shares did not move up as they have in the past. Perhaps sideways is the norm for a while. Or I am too late for this trade. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. One more day left in this holiday shortened week. I do not anticipate doing any trades tomorrow but you never know. I'd like to sidestep the risk of the employment report and probably will.

Marking time for now as the Dow gained 11 points on average volume. Advance/declines were slightly positive. End of the month tomorrow. The story remains the same. Sideways to higher the past couple of weeks. No catalyst as of yet. Perhaps the employment report on Friday will provide an excuse for movement. We'll see. Gold lost what it gained yesterday. The XAU fell 3/4. The gold shares were mixed. ABX and GG off fractionally, while NEM was up a bit. Volume was light. The dollar gained a bit of ground today. Same story here. No trend lately and sideways. We are just about at a moving average crossover to the downside for the gold shares as measured by the HUI on a daily basis. I'm still looking at the May calls though. No hurry to do anything. Mentally I'm a bit tired, could have slept better. A little over 2 weeks on the April option cycle. I'd like to do something but I cannot trade just to make a trade. We've been overbought for quite some time and the trend is up. It's tough to fight that. Holiday weekend coming up and it's a holiday week. The prudent action is to stay on the sidelines in my opinion.

The Dow gained 45 points to day to start off this holiday shortened week. Volume was average and the advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues to move sideways. This week could just be a light volume affair with Easter and spring break on the agenda. Friday is a market holiday. End of the month on Wednesday. I'm pretty sure I'll be on the sidelines with regards to the OEX. Gold was up over $5 and the XAU gained 3. ABX and GG were up 40 cents, while NEM gained a buck. Volume was light. The dollar was weaker today. I'd still like to get some May gold shares calls. Probably will do it when the Gold/XAU ratio hits the buy zone. It's possible that the rally in the gold shares is already starting here but the volume hasn't been much. There's no rush to do anything though. This week looks like it's something that I should just let pass. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept OK. I checked the charts over the weekend and the gold scenario is a mixed picture. The dollar may be putting in a top here though. That could and should bode well for gold. The stock indices are still overbought. They have been that way for quite some time. Some type of drop is overdue. You can't fight the trend though and the trend is up. We'll have to see for how much longer.

We did not see any downside follow through to yesterdays action as the Dow gained 9 points on average volume. Advance/declines were about even. So maybe yesterday wasn't an exhaustion move to the upside before giving back all the gains. We'll see. Summation index moving sideways and I believe that will be the case here for a while. But that doesn't mean we can't go higher. Gold was up $11 and the XAU rose 3 points mainly on dollar weakness. ABX up 2/3, GG up 3/8 and NEM up a full point today on average volume. Is now the time to get long the gold shares? Perhaps. We're oversold on some of the technical indicators. Almost getting a buy signal from the Gold/XAU ratio. There is a possibility that the dollar is completing a 5 wave pattern to the upside and if true would bode well for the bullish case for gold. We are also just about done with the month of March which has been historically bad for bullion. Mentally I'm doing good, slept good. Lots to ponder this weekend with regards to the markets and gold. I'll be checking the charts for clues on where we are heading. However the April cycle has just moved sideways in the past and that could be frustrating. So there's plenty to think about. But now it's Friday afternoon and time to take a break.

The Dow only gained 5 points today but it definitely was an interesting session. We were up over 100 at one point. This could signal the end of the rally. Volume was good today for a change. The advance/declines were negative. There is some chatter again about the Greek debt situation. Tomorrow will be key. If we simply rally back up again, today will just be a blip on the radar. However if we're down tomorrow, I think it will be more meaningful. We do have a negative divergence on the S&P 500 RSI. Gold was up $4 on the futures but the XAU lost 2 3/4. ABX off 1/2, GG down 3/4 and NEM fell 1 1/3. Volume was average. The dollar was up again, perhaps in a flight to safety. I'm still considering the May gold share calls but there is no hurry. When a valid signal appears, I'll probably take it. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept good enough. Still going sideways on the summation index. Perhaps we will roll over here. But that's a guess. The volume picked up today and it may have been the last gasp to the upside when we were up over 100 points. Exhaustion maybe of the bullish move. We'll have to see how we end the week tomorrow.

The Dow lost 52 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. Not much going on here really except for relieving the overbought condition. Summation index moving sideways. No OEX trades in the works for me at this juncture. Gold took a hit, down $15 on the futures. The XAU fell almost 6 points. ABX and GG off 1 1/2, while NEM dropped 1 3/4. Volume picked up to the downside. That isn't bullish. The dollar had a good day and that doesn't bode well for the gold shares. I am still going to look at the May gold share calls as my next trade. Patience is needed here. There is a possibility of getting some puts on the gold issues but that window of opportunity may already have passed. At any rate, I'll be keeping my attention on the gold stocks here. Mentally I'm a bit tired, didn't sleep well. I'm in no hurry to put on any trades here unless there's a decent signal. It's a waiting game for me as the 1st quarter of the year is about to end next week. So I'll be keeping an eye on things and see where we go from here.

Continuing higher as the Dow rose 103 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. It is like a broken record. Overbought and staying there. How high will we go? I don't know but you cannot deny the price action. The Dow was stronger than the overall market. We'll see how long that lasts. The trend is up. Don't fight it. Gold was up around $5 today. The XAU gained 1/2. The gold shares were mixed again. ABX off 2/3, GG up 1/3 and NEM was flat. Volume was nothing special. The dollar was up a bit. Still just moving sideways here for the gold issues. We are a bit oversold on the gold shares but I'm not looking at the calls just yet. I could be wrong. I think that I might go out to the May option cycle for the next gold share option trade. It isn't set in stone. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well. The market continues higher. My thinking now is that it is simply a liquidity move since money is so cheap due to 0% interest rates. Money is finding a home in stocks. But that's a guess, as usual. Technically we might be setting up negative divergences in the indices with respect to RSI and the McClellan oscillator going forward. We'll have to wait and see if that comes to fruition.

A positive start to the week as the Dow gained 44 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. The rally continues. The much debated health care bill has finally been passed in Washington. The market doesn't seem interested overall, although some health care issues had nice gains today. The indices are still overbought here but that hasn't meant anything lately. No OEX trades for now. Gold lost $8 but the XAU gained 1/2. The gold shares continue to outperform the metal itself. ABX was flat, GG lost 1/3 and NEM gained 2/3. Mixed again. Volume was light. Perhaps NEM will lead the way higher again. The dollar was off a bit but not much. I'm leaning towards the gold shares as my next trade. Perhaps going out to the May cycle. We'll see. They sold off early and came all the way back today. We'll see if there is any follow through tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling good, slept well. Just beginning the April option cycle. No rush to do anything yet. The market is overbought and has been. The summation index is starting to move sideways. It doesn't mean we have to drop here. Sometimes markets continue higher as the summation index builds a top. It could take weeks. Time will tell.

An actual downside day as the Dow lost 37 points. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative and volume was expiration heavy. I doubt that this is the start of a prolonged down move. It is probably just expiration related. The trend remains up until the technicals point to otherwise. So we'll see where we go from here. Gold took a hit, down $20. The XAU lost 2 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on average volume. The gold shares have actually held up pretty well here considering that gold itself dropped pretty good. The dollar had a good day as well. Still just moving sideways here in the gold indices. As I said before my next trade could be in the gold shares again. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling good, slept well. So we're done with the March option cycle and that should pretty much do it for me regarding the first quarter of the year. It stunk. I'll just have to suck it up and move on. There isn't much else to say about that. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend and go from there. No trades on the radar as yet. It's the weekend and time for a break.

The Dow rose 45 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. Haven't seen that in quite some time. Perhaps we are finally going to get a pause in this unprecedented run up. Still very overbought and staying there. Expiration Friday tomorrow. New highs have expanded and the advance/decline line continues higher. The trend is up. Gold was up a couple bucks despite dollar strength today. The XAU dropped over a point. ABX, GG and NEM were mixed on light volume. We've been moving sideways here. I think my next trade will be in the gold shares but haven't exactly decided what it will be. There's no rush at the moment. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. Option expiration tomorrow and we'll roll into the April cycle. Sometimes April has a tendency to be a sideways affair, which would not be conducive to profitable trading. So we'll see. I'm in no hurry to do anything with my confidence being as low as it gets. Plenty of time this year to turn things around. We'll see if I'm capable.

The Dow continues higher, up another 47 points today. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive and the volume was average. It's up, up and away. Has been for quite a while. The usual technical indicators don't work in an environment like this. Well overbought and staying there for days on end. Summation index still going higher. 2 days until expiration and we should just continue to advance I guess. My ideas haven't been working all year, so who knows? Gold was up a touch during the day but has sold off a bit on the futures. The XAU was little changed. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. The dollar didn't do much today either. The dollar is right on an important daily uptrend line that goes back for a couple of months. What happens to the dollar here could have implications for the gold shares. It's something to keep an eye on. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well. So where do I go from here? A terrible first quarter of the year trading. I'll have to take a step back and regroup. Again. I'll keep doing the work and looking for the next perceived opportunity. My trading tactics have got to change or the results will be the same. Plenty to work on and think about.

The Fed announcement came and went with the Dow gaining 44 points on the day. Volume was average and the advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. I dumped the OEX calls for a 75% loss. That was a horrible trade. We are in the middle of an unprecedented rise where the market has stayed overbought for days on end. The major averages are breaking out, following the over the counter markets. Volume is nothing great but you can't argue with price. Summation index continues higher. Continuing higher into the March expiration which I thought may happen but did not trade it accordingly. Gold had a good day on dollar weakness, up $17. The XAU rose about 4 1/2. ABX and GG were up a buck, with NEM up 1 1/2. Volume was average. No trades here but I do not think that gold is trending on way or the other right now. Sideways until the next decent move seems to be the case. Mentally I'm feeling tired but slept pretty good. This trade and the preceding one were just terrible. I did not follow the rules and I was not quick enough to do what was required. It hasn't been a good 1st quarter and there is nobody to blame but myself. Can I turn things around? Perhaps. I have before. However losing takes its toll and I am clearly presently in a funk. Perhaps a little time off is called for with regards to trading. We'll see.

A one day reversal to the upside as the Dow gained 17 points on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. We were down over 50 points early. That is when I should have dumped the OEX puts I own for a loss. It is always easy to look back. But I'm still holding them here, waiting on the Fed tomorrow. It isn't a wise strategy. The market simply continues to grind higher and it is expiration week. That usually implies a positive bias. So I do have another stop loss order in and it will be filled if we have a strong open tomorrow. We'll see. Gold was up a few bucks today even with a stronger dollar. The XAU fell 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. No trades for the gold shares here for me. I will probably let the month of March pass for gold trades unless there is a decent signal. Maybe get long at the end of the month. Mentally I'm disappointed in myself for not just taking the loss today on the OEX trade. It obviously isn't going to work and it looks like I'll be taking a better than 50% loss again. It doesn't make any sense to have trading rules if you don't have the discipline to follow them. This is one of my major trading flaws. Has been for years. Despite that I've still managed to do OK but the trading results could be so much better. It always seems to be a work in progress. There is nobody to blame but myself and that's how it is when you're a trader. The mental capital lost with losing trades is more important than the money. The money doesn't come up with the ideas, you do. So I will have to continue to work on myself. We'll see what happens with the Fed tomorrow and go from there. I would not be surprised if we go on up to new recovery highs.

The Dow closed the day higher by 12 points. Volume was average. The advance/declines were positive. The Dow had a gap up at the open and my stop loss order was jumped. I canceled the order since we moved so far away from it. The market came back and eventually the order would have been filled but I'm holding out for another day. It will be a cut the loss scenario at this point anyway. The strength of the market continues to amaze as there hasn't been a down day in the S&P 500 futures for 10 days in a row. I'm probably making a mistake by not just getting out today but the trade has yet to hit the 50% loss threshold. Gold lost $6 and the XAU fell 1 1/4. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. The GG earnings came out and there wasn't a pop to the upside as had been the case with ABX and NEM. The dollar had a weak session and it did not help gold. Not sure what it means but it usually isn't bullish. We are in the month of March so I would not expect much upside from gold. I'm on the sidelines there for now. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. Not happy that I just didn't book the OEX put loss today. It's one of the problems I encounter during my trading. It would have been better if the stop loss order had been filled and I could move on to the next trade. However now I'm stuck in this for another day. Time is running out with 5 days to go and the market shows absolutely no signs of weakness. And so it goes. So we'll see what happens Monday morning and go from there. Friday afternoon means time for a break.

Opened lower and closed higher as the Dow gained 44 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. There's no keeping this market down. Today was a one day reversal to the upside and implies higher prices. I'm just about stopped out of the OEX put trade and probably will be tomorrow. We are as overbought as possible and yet there just hasn't even been a day of pullback. Summation index continues higher. How long can this unabated rally continue? We'll see. I could have exited the put trade early today for a profit and in retrospect that's what I should have done. Gold was little changed on the day. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume. The dollar was a touch weaker. GG earnings after the close today. I'm not looking at any gold trades at the moment. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept longer last night. It looks like the Dow is about to bust out to new highs for the year, following the small cap stocks. My OEX put trade will be a loser unless we are pretty weak on the open tomorrow. At this point, I don't see that happening. Retail sales tomorrow will be the key to the opening. Or not. It could be that the momentum to the upside just continues. At any rate whatever happens I will be out of this trade at some point tomorrow.

The Dow gained 3 points today in pretty much range bound trading. Volume was good again, while the advance/declines were positive. Very overbought and staying there. Summation index continuing to move higher. The overall market was much better than the Dow. It's possible this is a momentum rally and will simply continue higher. That said, I did buy some OEX puts this morning. They are priced where I bought them for now. With all the strength in the indices, I don't expect to hold on for too long. The stop-loss order is in place. Gold dropped $14 today and the XAU fell 2 1/3. ABX and NEM were off 3/4, while GG lost a point. Volume was a bit better than lately. The gold shares are still outperforming the metal itself. The dollar fell a bit but it didn't help gold. I took a look at the GG puts but did not seriously consider a trade there. The earnings will be due tomorrow. Mentally I'm tired. Trading the OEX will do that. I need to get some more sleep and will do that tonight. So I'm in the OEX put trade and hopefully not for long. We are overbought by any measure. And we've been that way all week. Some type of downside action is overdue. However the market will go where it wants and do what it pleases. If we do get some type of drop, I'd like to exit this trade and get some OEX calls for expiration week. We'll see.

Trying to move higher as the Dow was up 12 points on better volume. Advance/declines were positive. We were up as much as 50 points but sold off late. I placed an order for some OEX puts, adjusted the price lower and was not filled. In retrospect, I should have just left the original order in place. I'm leaving in an overnight order for the OEX puts but it may be too late. Even so, I'll be looking to purchase some OEX calls for option expiration week, barring a collapse here. I don't see that happening. Summation index still pointing higher but we are very overbought and haven't even had the pullback here that I'm looking for. Gold lost a couple of bucks today but was much lower. The XAU lost a point. ABX, GG and NEM were mixed with fractional moves one way or the other. Volume was light. The dollar was up a bit today. No trades for me in the gold shares here but GG announces earnings after the bell on Thursday. If anything, I'm looking at the puts there but I could be wrong. Mentally I'm doing OK. Frustrated at not leaving my original OEX order in because I would like to own the puts here. I can't believe that we won't see some weakness in the next couple of days. We have been overbought and have stayed there for too long already. I don't think that it's the beginning of something big if it does happen because the internals are so strong. But I do believe that it's trade worthy and that's why I'd like to do it. So we'll see what happens tomorrow.

In a holding pattern as the Dow lost 13 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. I have an order in for some OEX puts which trade until 1:15 PST. I may wait until tomorrow. I do think that this is a trade that will work but it isn't a long term deal. It's possible that tomorrow could be another up day but the odds are against it. Summation index still heading higher. We are overbought here and have stayed there. I don't think my order will be filled. Gold took a hit today, off over $10. ABX, GG and NEM were all fractionally lower on light volume. GG has earnings out this week. I'm thinking of perhaps getting the puts. Gold is overbought here but the gold shares are outperforming the metal itself. The dollar didn't do much today. Mentally I'm a bit tired, could have slept better. My thinking is that this OEX put trade could work but it doesn't look like I'll be getting them today. Tomorrow could be too late. And so it goes. The timing has to be correct. My work over the weekend is pointing to higher prices in the near term even if we do get a midweek sell-off. So perhaps I'll be getting some calls if I don't get in on the short side here. And maybe even if I do. I guess I'll try again tomorrow.

A positive reaction to the employment report as the Dow gained 122 points today. Advance/declines were over 4 to 1 positive on average volume. Summation index still pointing higher. Overbought and staying there. I still am favoring the OEX put scenario for the beginning of next week. Strength on Monday can be sold in my opinion but I'll check things out over the weekend. The Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ have broken out to new highs and are leading the markets. This usually leads to the major indices following. So after this put play, if it occurs, getting long would be favored. Gold was up a couple bucks as the dollar didn't do much today. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume. If anything I would be looking to get puts on the gold shares here. I could be wrong but we are overbought. Not to sound like a broken record but March historically isn't a good period for gold. I'll check things here over the weekend as well but I'll probably focus on the OEX for a trade. Mentally I'm feeling fine, slept well. Long and strong this week for the stock indices. We had everything but volume on this continued upside move. The advance/decline line continues to make new highs. It will be hard to buy those OEX puts on Monday but a decent signal is here. It's not going to be a trade to hold too long but it looks like it could work for a couple of days. We'll see. The weekend is here and there is much work to do but now it's time for a break.

The Dow gained 47 points today on light to average volume. Advance/declines were positive. Short covering today? I don't know. The market action kept me from purchasing the OEX puts that I had wanted to get before tomorrows employment report. I did not want to take the risk. My ideal scenario now would be a positive day tomorrow and then a purchase of the puts on follow through upside Monday. But how often does the market do what you'd like? Summation index still heading higher. Gold lost $10 today and the XAU fell 2 1/4. ABX and GG had fractional losses, while NEM dropped a buck. Volume was average. The dollar had a good day. I'd be inclined to short the gold shares here but I probably won't. Perhaps if they build a multi-day top. Overbought on a daily basis there. Mentally I'm feeling good, slept well enough. So it looks like I will let the employment report pass and take it from there. 11 days in the March option cycle to go. So there is plenty of time to put on a trade. I'm trying to let the technicals line up for something here. If tomorrow is to the upside, then I think there will be a low risk opportunity to get short at the beginning of next week. If we drop tomorrow, then I'll have to look for something else.

In a holding pattern as the Dow lost 9 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. A rerun of yesterday as we were higher and then came back. I did place another order for some OEX puts but canceled it halfway through the trading day. We are either building a short term top here or consolidating before we move higher. I'll have to see how tomorrow shapes up before I decide what to do here. We are overbought but the internals are saying higher prices are ahead. Gold gained $5 today on a weaker dollar. The XAU rose 2 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM were all up at least 1/2 on average volume. We did break a daily downtrend line in the gold shares this week. However with March being a historically poor month for gold, I'm leery of getting long. But it looks as though the dollar may have topped out here as well. So it's a split decision and I have no trades there for now. Mentally I'm doing good, slept well enough. I had wanted to get short before the employment report and I still might do it. But I cannot rule out that the market will be going higher here and that would kill any trade in the OEX puts. So perhaps I will not do anything and stay on the sidelines. I check things over again tonight and go from there.

A slight pause today as the Dow gained 2 points. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive and the volume was average. We were higher for most of the day and then sold off a bit. I did actually put an order in for some OEX puts at the high of the day but canceled it when it wasn't quickly filled. We are short term overbought here but it's possible todays action relieved that condition. Or not. I'm still thinking about getting some OEX puts before the employment report. However the summation index remains to the upside. The broader market was stronger than the Dow as well. Gold had a good day, up almost $20. The XAU rose about 4 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all up about a buck or so on average volume. The dollar was off a bit but not as much that would represent a $20 rise in gold. Perhaps something else is going on here but I certainly don't know what. I'm not looking to do anything with the gold shares at the moment. Overbought here as well and staying there. Mentally I'm doing fine, slept well. I'll be checking the charts tonight to see if the OEX puts play is viable. I may perhaps wait until Thursday depending on tomorrows action. Or I may do nothing at all. There's still plenty of time for the March option cycle. So we'll see what tomorrow brings.

A positive start to the week and the month as the Dow gained 78 points. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive and the volume was light. The trend remains to the upside as previously discussed. We are getting short term overbought but could stay there as is the case with up trends. The dollar had a good day and the stock market shrugged it off. Beginning of the month money flows perhaps? Gold was flat today and the XAU gained 2 3/4 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had at least 1/2 point gains or more on light volume. The gold shares outperformed gold and that is usually bullish going forward. The gold shares also decoupled from the stronger dollar. I don't know what it means going forward but we'll have to keep an eye on it and see if it continues. Mentally I'm feeling good, slept well. I don't have a clear idea of exactly what to trade here but I'm leaning towards getting some OEX puts if we hold up until Fridays employment report. That remains to be seen. The summation index is heading higher and it is tough to fight that. I'm going to have to remain in a wait and see mode for now. The daily technicals are overbought on the indices and have been for a few days. That won't last forever. However we could be in the final run up of the market which would last until the March expiration. Crosscurrents here to be sure.