Wednesday, August 12, 2026
Most stock markets moved higher but the Dow lost 21 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving sideways. Inflation data came in at the consensus, which wasn't what I expected. Thankfully we did not own the SPY August puts as there was a big gap up at the open followed by a sideways drift for the rest of the session. We did receive a signal from the McClellan oscillator last night for a big move within the next two trading sessions. We'll see if we get that move tomorrow. The NASDAQ led the way higher again today and that remains a plus for the bulls. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are still overbought and staying that way. Now joined by the medium term gauges as well. Not sure how much longer this can last but can be longer than expected during rally phases. Gold up another thirty bucks today. The US dollar was higher today, while interest rates finished relatively flat. The XAU was up 3 1/8 and GDX added 7/8. Volume was light. GDX remains short term overbought like the overall market. I did place an order overnight for the GDX August calls but it will take some selling to get filled. I'm leaving the order out there but may have to switch to the September option cycle going forward. We have yet to see GDX make a pullback to the down trend line that it broke. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits with an overall up market. Still oversold and staying that way. The bulls are in charge. More inflation data on the docket for tomorrow. Asia was mixed and Europe a bit lower overnight. I'll keep watch on this evenings developments.
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