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Monday, August 17, 2026

Starting expiration week on a down note as the Dow fell 272 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is back to tracking sideways. Most stock markets opened higher and closed lower. We got another signal on Friday from the McClellan oscillator for a big move within the next two sessions. This signal hasn't worked lately but we'll have to see what happens tomorrow. The Dow and S&P 500 led things lower today. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned down but remain overbought. No SPY option trades in mind at the moment. Gold was up $39 on the futures. The US dollar finished a bit lower and interest rates just a bit higher. The XAU added 7 points and GDX was up 1 7/8. Volume was light. GDX remains short term overbought. I am looking at the September GDX calls but am still waiting for some kind of pullback before purchase. Markets rarely cooperate. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and that coincides with a down market. Still short term oversold on the measures here. I'm not sure where the VIX is headed next. Not a lot of economic data due out this week as we continue to travel through summer. Haven't heard much about the US/Iran conflict lately but that could change on a moments notice. Waiting for the next decent technical signal but at this rate it could be a while. Asia was generally higher and Europe lower to begin the week. We'll keep an eye out for any overnight developments.

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