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Friday, August 07, 2026

Buyers returned today as the Dow rose 151 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is back to trending higher. The jobs report was weaker than expected and we had a gap higher at the open. There was some back and forth during the day but stocks remained positive throughout. The NASDAQ was the leader and that's a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 had a decent gain and closed at a new all time high. The short term indicators here are now moving sideways in overbought territory. The sell signal we received turned out to be short lived but that was not unexpected. There is no overhead resistance for the S&P. Gold continued its run higher as the futures were up $103. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 23 1/2, while GDX climbed almost 6. Volume was heavy again to the upside. GDX is short term overbought and will probably stay that way. Gold and the gold shares had a tremendous week to the plus side with huge gains. GDX was up 20% in just a week, breaking through down trend lines that were in charge. I still like the idea of the GDX calls on a pullback but the lions share of the gains have most likely already been made. Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated as taking the big loss in the gold share calls last month probably helped deter me from trying them again last week. There was an opportunity and I let it slip through my hands. It has happened before and it will probably happen again. The market doesn't care. The VIX was lower to a new six month low. It remains very oversold on the short term indicators but can stay that way during rallies. I will be going over all the charts this weekend but I do have a trade in mind already for next week if the market cooperates. Inflation data will be out on Wednesday and Thursday of next week. If the market continues higher early in the week and the NASDAQ does not break out to a new all time high I'll be looking at the SPY August puts. It would be a short term trade to be entered prior to the inflation numbers. Market rarely cooperate though. Plus we remain at the mercy of the next headline out of the US/Iran conflict. Asia was once again mixed and Europe higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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