Wednesday, May 06, 2026
Up, up and away as the bulls are on a stampede. The Dow gained 612 points on pretty heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to move higher. Once again the NASDAQ led the way, finishing up over 2%. There is no overhead resistance. The NASDAQ along with the S&P 500 closed at new records again and the Dow is trying to join them. The short term technical overbought condition for the S&P hasn't changed in a month. It has lasted much longer than I thought it would. It is on the brink of becoming parabolic and we all know how that ends. We'll enjoy the ride while it lasts. Gold climbed $134 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU soared 26 2/3, while GDX jumped 6 2/3. Volume was good to the upside. Another missed trade on the calls here but we will be looking to get some on any near term pullback. Mondays lack of decline in the gold shares when gold sank was a clue. GDX has held the longer term up trend line for now as that support proved to be valid. The short term indicators for GDX have now turned up with room to go. The open interest on the GDX 90 calls has shrank and now is not the deterrent that I thought it would be just a couple of days ago. We don't enjoy missing out on opportunities. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished flat after being lower early on. That certainly doesn't fit with a big positive day for stocks. The short term indicators here also simply tracked sideways. Not sure what's next for the VIX. Were todays huge gains a speculative blow off top with heavy volume? Not sure but we can't rule it out. But we also know that things can still run up into the option expiration next week. It appears that the Iran conflict has now taken a back seat. News from there does not have the same effect that it did earlier. I'll be watching the gold shares as that looks like it still could be my next trade. Asia and Europe were higher as money is pouring back into stocks around the globe. We will keep an eye on the overnight headlines.
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