Thursday, May 28, 2026
Moving higher for the overall market but the Dow only managed a gain of 24 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to move higher. New all time highs again for the Big 3 of the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P 500. Inflation data came in a touch lighter than expected. Stocks are still being held hostage for the latest sound bite from the Iran conflict. The NASDAQ led the way up and that's a plus for the bulls. There is no overhead resistance. We did get a signal from the McClellan oscillator last night for a big move within the next two trading sessions. The NASDAQ would probably qualify for that today but not the other indices. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 remain overbought. Some of the potential negative divergences that we saw there have been invalidated. That hasn't happened yet for the RSI but it could if we keep moving higher. My open order for the SPY June puts remains out there and another positive day like today would likely get it filled. I would like to own the puts going into this weekend but only at the price that we are willing to pay. Option premiums remain high. Gold was up $46 on the futres. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU climbed 8 1/2, while GDX added 1 3/4. Volume was average. Once again the 200 day moving average held for GDX. The short term indicators there are trying to move up from oversold territory. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits with an up market. The short term indicators are oversold and staying there. The VIX seems to imply that higher stock prices are in the near future. But I am in the camp that a decline is coming and sooner rather than later. I could be wrong. If the negative RSI divergence for the S&P 500 gets wiped out then the SPY June put idea that we are looking at right now would be incorrect. Asia and Europe were lower overnight. We'll close out the trading month of May tomorrow.
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