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Thursday, May 07, 2026

It looked like some profit taking ahead of tomorrows jobs report as the Dow fell 313 points on pretty heavy volume once again. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving sideways. The Dow led things lower and that isn't the most bearish scenario. Stocks did finish well off of the morning highs though. The NASDAQ posted a slight loss and the S&P 500 had a small one. Some of the short term indicators on the S&P have turned back lower but it remains in overbought territory. The short term up trend line for the S&P, which is pretty steep, remains intact. We are now looking at the SPY May puts. Gold was up $30 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher as were interest rates. The XAU was off around 2 1/4, while GDX shed about 1/3. Volume was above average. The gold shares finished well off of the highs for the session and closed near the lows. They also underperformed the precious metal itself. GDX was stopped at its short term down trend line and pulled back. Some of the short term indicators here are beginning to move sideways. It is possible that my idea here for the GDX calls is not going to work and that the bounce off of the longer term trend line is over. I'll reconsider things tonight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which does not fit with a down market. The short term technical indicators here have turned lower and remain in oversold territory. I do not have a good idea of where the VIX is heading next. The employment report should be the main focus tomorrow morning and we'll see how the market reacts to that. News on the Iran conflict continues to go back and forth. Looking for an entry point to try the SPY May puts. Europe closed down and Asia was higher with the exception of India. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

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