Tuesday, May 19, 2026
The market cannot seem to gain any upside traction here as the Dow fell 322 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading lower. We will take our cues from that. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way down and as long as that's the case things will be trending lower. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are now moving down and are no longer overbought. There is plenty of room for them to move lower. We still like the idea for the SPY June puts here but are waiting for some kind of bounce back in order to purchase. If this is some sort of sustained decline we should see some kind of rally attempt before heading lower again. But markets go where they want and perhaps stocks will just continue to be sold. Gold dropped $69. The US dollar was higher and so were interest rates. The XAU fell almost 13 points and GDX slid 3 1/3. Volume was average. Some of the short term indicators on GDX are now oversold. The longer term up trend line from January 2025 has been broken. The next area of support for GDX comes in at the recent lows around the 80 level. No GDX option trades in mind at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was only slightly higher today. The short term indicators here are around mid-range and pointing up. It seems to me that the VIX could go either way from here. However the feel of things right now is that the market has rolled over and we are in the beginning of a sustained decline. As long as the summation index is moving down we will stick with that thesis. Asia and Europe were mixed overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.
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