Monday, May 11, 2026
Hanging around on a Monday as the Dow rose 95 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving sideways. Basically waiting around for the inflation data tomorrow. New all time highs for the NASDAQ and S&P 500 but not by much. The short term indicators remain stuck in overbought territory for the S&P. I did place an open order for the SPY May puts overnight but it wasn't filled and I canceled it during the session. Might try again tomorrow if the market moves higher early on. It also might be too late. Plenty of noise in the background this week with economic data, the ongoing Iran conflict and a US/China summit beginning on Wednesday. The technical picture for the S&P is still overbought and that cannot last forever. Gold was up $13 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates rose. The XAU gained 15 3/4 and GDX added 3. Volume was a bit above average. The gold shares did much better than the metal itself and that's bullish. GDX also broke above its short term down trend line. The short term technical indicators here are still moving up and are not yet completely overbought. Money is moving into this space. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today which does not fit with an up market. The short term indicators here are now moving higher. I still do not have a good handle on what the VIX is doing here. With only four days left in the May option cycle any trade taken on now has more risk than usual. Not sure if I will attempt anything this week. Asia and Europe began the week on a mixed note. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
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