Wednesday, August 02, 2023
The market got clobbered today as the US debt was downgraded by one of the rating agencies. The Dow fell 348 points on average volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is starting to move down. The NASDAQ led the way lower and was off over 2%. That's a negative. The S&P 500 had a gap lower at the open and just kept on falling. The short term indicators there have dropped with room to go lower. Obviously we've missed the best entry point for the SPY August puts but we still believe in that idea. We'll be looking for some kind of snapback move to get the puts in the coming days. The longer term up trend line for the S&P comes in at 4400 and that is the target for the move lower. Gold fell $7 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished mixed. The gold shares followed the overall market lower which was what we feared since I own the GDX August calls. The XAU dropped 3 1/2, while GDX lost almost a point. Volume was above average again to the downside. My GDX August calls are dead and I'll be looking to exit on any kind of snapback here as well. GDX is now short term oversold. It did breach the 30 level so the potential inverse head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart has been negated. Probably should have just sold the GDX calls today and taken the loss but there's a chance that the jobs report comes in light. That would provide a reason for a bounce in gold and the overall market in theory. This trade went from a small winner on Monday to a loser at the close today. That's just how it goes in the game sometimes. Should have just focussed on the S&P but hindsight is never wrong. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked today and that's not a surprise given the decline. Not completely short term overbought here yet but one more down day would do it. Closed above the 50 day moving average here and if it stays above it there will most likely be more selling. Europe and Asia got smashed overnight as well. We'll see if the tech earnings can turn things around tomorrow.
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