Tuesday, August 15, 2023
The market sold off today as the Dow fell 361 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. Whatever ideas that I had about the SPY August calls appear to be wrong but we'll see. The S&P closed right at or just below its daily up trend line from March. Considering the NASDAQ has already penetrated this line it would make sense for the S&P 500 to follow. Not sure what's going on here but we'll follow the summation index and that calls for lower prices. Perhaps we'll get an expiration week bounce but not at the rate we're going. Our work had originally called for the close this week to be around 451 on the SPY. That idea may be out the window. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P remain short term oversold and staying that way. That's not a good sign for the bulls. However we will get an oversold bounce at some point. When that point will occur is the question. Gold was down ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar and interest rates were slightly higher. The XAU lost 3 1/4, while GDX dropped 3/4. Volume was slightly below average but a pick up from what we've seen lately. 27 is the number that we're looking for on GDX. I'm considering placing an overnight order for the September calls there in case we see a big drop tomorrow in GDX. GDX is oversold on a daily and weekly basis. Mentally I'm feeling OK but I must admit the market action so far this week has me second guessing things. I had thought that perhaps things would be calm this week. Wrong. The VIX was up today and that certainly fits with a down market. The short term indicators are now moving up and still have room to go higher before reaching overbought. The daily candlestick chart looks like it wants to go higher. So perhaps we'll see more selling tomorrow. No summer doldrums to be seen. Asia was mixed and Europe lower last night. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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