Tuesday, August 22, 2023
The Dow was one of the weakest performers on the day as it fell 174 ponts on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues lower. The S&P 500 opened higher and closed lower for a one day downside reversal. The S&P remains short term oversold but not completely so. The NASDAQ managed a small gain on the session so all hope is not lost for the bulls. I thought we would see a better bounce in stocks from the oversold condition but this is what we have to work with so far. We'll continue to see if the S&P can make it back near the 445 level and then take a hard look at the SPY September puts there. Looks like we could just be in a holding pattern until Fridays Fed chairmans speech. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates held steady. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. I'm thinking about canceling my open order for the GDX September calls and moving to a lower strike price. We'll see. GDX still hasn't made it down to the 27 level which would be the ideal target to put this call trade on. However it's possible that a temporary bottom is in place. The light volume is a concern though. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which doesn't fit with a lower overall market. The short term indicators here are heading towards mid-range now. I'm not getting a good reading on what's next for the VIX. So it appears that we are just waiting for Friday at this point. Europe and Asia were both up overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.
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