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Friday, August 11, 2023

A mixed market to close out the week as the Dow gained 105 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index continues lower. Inflation data came in where expected and there really wasn't much of a market reaction. The overall market was lower with the NASDAQ the downside leader. The NASDAQ closed below its 50 day moving average and also below the up trend line that had been in place since March. Those are not positive developments. The S&P 500 remains above its up trend line from the spring but it is probably just a matter of time before it breaks it. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P remain short term oversold. We took a look at the SPY September puts and the premiums are sky high. But that's probably the place to be. That said we are now looking at a different trade next week involving the SPY August calls. We are considering buying weakness on Monday for a short term trade. Will consider this idea over the weekend. Gold was off a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU was up almost 1 1/4, while GDX added 1/4. Volume remains very light here. The short term indicators for GDX have curled back up. Should be try the August calls here with only a week to go? Probably not as the volume here hasn't been up to snuff lately. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped today which doesn't fit well with a mixed market. However the short term indicators here are trending down and the daily candlestick chart looks like it wants to go lower. That would be another reason to try the SPY calls in the near term if the lower VIX trend continues. But we'll have to go over the charts this weekend to see if trying calls is even worth the risk because the bears have clearly taken over for now. That said, some of our indicators are saying some kind of bounce would be due if Monday is negative. So we'll see. Europe and Asia were lower with the exception of Japan to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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