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Thursday, August 17, 2023

Another day, another loser as the Dow fell 290 points on summer average volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues down. Getting quite oversold on the McClellan oscillator so some kind of bounce is due. Might have to wait until next week for that. It has been an orderly decline so far as we haven't had any super negative sessions yet. Also waiting for the final heavy volume wash out that occurs at the end of these moves. Don't know when we'll get that. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way lower and that fact remains a negative for the market. All the major averages are now below their 50 day moving averages. Oversold, staying that way and that is becoming an everyday siren song. It's a buyers boycott with no end in sight at the moment. We still want to attempt the SPY September puts after we see some kind of relief rally. But we missed this move lower as our work pointed us in the wrong short term direction this time around looking for the SPY calls during expiration week. We'll keep moving forward though. Gold was off another ten bucks today. The US dollar finished little changed as did interest rates. Both the XAU and GDX took fractional losses on light volume. I adjusted down my order for the GDX September calls. Only a half a point away from 27 on GDX so we'll see if it makes it down there. Oversold for gold itself and the gold shares. The fundamental picture there is bearish as well. We still believe in the technicals though and figure this is as good a time as any to try the GDX call trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up and that fits with todays negative price action. Just about short term overbought on the VIX and another day like today will do it. That's another reason to suspect that we'll see some kind of bounce relatively soon. How that bounce actually goes will tell us a lot about just how weak things are right now. Europe and Asia were lower as selling is going on around the globe. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

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