Thursday, September 11, 2014
The Dow fell 19 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. It was however a one day reversal to the upside for the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. The market has all the feel of something that is going to go higher. The summation index is heading lower still though. But with expiration week coming up, I wouldn't be surprised if we start to move up tomorrow. Perhaps the retail sales numbers will trigger something. My September OEX puts are dead. Unless we see a drop tomorrow, I'll be booking huge losses. GE was up a few cents and the volume remains light. My September puts are toast here as well. Should dump them tomorrow, if possible. Gold continued to slide, the futures lost another six bucks. We're at the $1240 level and very oversold. The US dollar continued higher today. The XAU turned around for some reason and was up 3/4. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on OK volume. My October ABX calls are practically worthless as well. No hope for this trade. I did consider going out to the January strike price for some calls here today. But perhaps the sidelines are the best place for me to go at the moment. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I'm going to have to revise and change my trading tactics after the recent losses in the options market. I have an idea on what will help but implementing it will be the challenge. It is one thing when the technicals don't work. It is quite another when you can't admit that your ideas were wrong and you simply need to bail out. That is where the problem lies here. The markets are unrelenting and not really interested in your ideas. There are enormous sums of money moving around. As an individual trader you can't expect to have any influence on what transpires in this game. You can do all the work and all the study but the only thing that matters is the bottom line. When you get in and when you get out. The options game is tough as you have not only price and time but volatility to factor in. The rewards can be great. But the losses can be humbling. The short term technicals for the major stock indices are trying to curl back to the upside. The small stocks moved higher today and that is a positive. I'm expecting higher prices tomorrow. Gold is dropping and there seems to be no end in sight. If we can't hold $1240, then I guess the next stop will be $1200. I might try the ABX January calls soon or I might just sit on the sidelines for a while. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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