Tuesday, September 30, 2014
The month and quarter ended with a whimper as the Dow fell 28 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. The summation index continues lower. It is edging closer to the zero line. That is why I'm still holding on to the October OEX puts. If we go through that line things will get ugly. Hasn't happened yet. The stock indices are short term oversold. Friday should be the day of reckoning, one way or the other for the market. The employment report and the reaction to it will tell the story. GE was up 20 cents, gaining back what it lost yesterday. If GE is a precursor once again, the market will hold up here. No trades for GE at the moment. Gold continues to fall as it dropped ten bucks with the futures and aftermarket combined. The US dollar continues to the upside unabated. The technicals aren't working anymore for gold and silver. The simply remain very oversold. The XAU dropped 1 3/4. ABX, GG and NEM all fell 1/3 or more on good volume. My January ABX calls were almost stopped out. I am wondering if I should move to the next strike price lower if they do get sold. The long gold share call trade hasn't worked at all for me so far this year. Perhaps just abandoning this idea would be the best course of action. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The stock indexes could go either way here but I have to keep leaning to the bearish outcome. The RUT has underperformed here by so much that I do believe lower overall prices are in the future. I could be wrong. I said before that some of the medium term technical indicators are at levels that have contained the previous declines and led to rallies. Friday should be the key. I don't know what else I can say about the gold and silver market. Lower prices are met be even lower prices. No bounce, no bargain hunting, no nothing. This market will recover but when that happens is not something that I can predict. With all the world wide turmoil that exists, the non rally in the precious metals is beyond confusing. Perhaps this isn't a market to trade after all. However it could also be said that the strong dollar trumps all else and is the only reason for the demise in gold and silver. And with US interest rates with only one way to go, gold may not be any good from the long side for some time to come. Just a thought. We'll keep an eye on the overnight action and see how the 4th quarter begins tomorrow.
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