Friday, September 19, 2014
It was a one day reversal to the downside for most of the major stock indices but not the Dow as it gained 14 points on expiration heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative though. The underlying breadth continues to deteriorate and that cannot be ignored. It was Alibaba day on the exchange and trading there was whipped up into an IPO frenzy. I am still a believer that lower prices are coming in the next few weeks. I once again bought some OEX puts, going out to October. I have a stop loss order placed at 50%. Hopefully I'll be able to keep it there. The stock indices are now short term overbought. GE was up a few cents and the volume continues to be better than average. My September GE calls expired worthless for a 100% loss. The percentage loss should never happen again. Gold continued lower and fell another $10 on the futures. The US dollar bounced back from yesterdays loss and negated the bearish daily candlestick pattern. Getting close to the resistance level of 85 on the dollar. The XAU lost 2 1/4. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on heavy volume. All are short and medium term oversold. My open order for the January ABX calls was filled. I have a stop loss order in at 50%. I'm not feeling as good about this trade but support for ABX comes in at $15.50 and we are almost there. Mentally I'm feeling a little tired. Some of my thinking here goes along with the lines of things being propped up as usual for expiration week in the stock market. Perhaps we will get a cleared picture of the actual prevailing trend next week. I will say that it is not bullish when the small stocks lag and they have been for a while. Also at this point the advance/decline line is not confirming the move higher in the big caps. That could change. One of the new trading rules involves placing a stop loss order when each trade is filled. The order is placed so that the maximum loss is 50% of the amount of the trade. Obviously if I place a trade and it loses half of its value, I've done something wrong. Keeping the stop loss order at 50% and not moving it down will be the challenge. But it shouldn't be. Not all ideas are correct. Gold continues lower and silver is absolutely getting crushed. The time to buy is when blood is in the streets according to an old wall street saying. However things can go even lower than you think as they can go higher. I'm still willing to take a trade on the ABX calls here though. Probably won't be holding this trade until January but it does have some time to work out. The gold shares are very oversold. It was an eventful week for the markets this week. How will things follow through next week is the question to ponder over the weekend. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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