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Thursday, September 25, 2014

I guess there will be no doubt about the market direction now.  The Dow fell 264 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The major averages closed on their lows once again.  The McClellan oscillator is pretty oversold but in market declines it can stay that way.  The advance yesterday turns out to be nothing more than a dead cat bounce.  The summation index is starting to get close to the zero line.  That is the area that must hold or the stock averages will begin to fall apart.  Caution is advised.  GE dropped over 1/3 on average volume.  GE took out yesterdays lows and is back below both the 50 and 200 day moving averages.  Gold found a slight bid and the futures were up a couple bucks.  The US dollar was higher as well and now above the 85 level.  The XAU was flat on the session but rose from the daily low.  ABX, GG and NEM had slight fractional gains on OK volume.  Perhaps if the stock indices continue to drop, gold can find some buyers.  Hasn't happened yet.  My January ABX calls are still in the red.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  Perhaps we are at the beginning of a multi-week decline.  That would be my guess as of today.  My October OEX puts are solidly in the black.  Now the decision when to sell the puts becomes the next job.  I'm going to give it some time.  Because if we are into something big here, the profits will be pretty good.  It won't make up for the money that was lost last month but it certainly would help.  Some of the major stock indices are at up trend lines that began in May.  If these lines don't hold we will be heading lower in a hurry.  Getting oversold on the daily technicals but not all the way there yet.  Still no real buyers in the precious metals complex.  I don't know when that will turn around.  But as I said if there is a rout in the stock market we could see a flight to safety occur.  The decline began in the European markets last night.  We'll keep an eye on what transpires there tonight and close out the trading week tomorrow.

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