Monday, June 09, 2014
A quiet Monday as the Dow continues to rise. It gained 18 points on light volume today. The advance/declines were positive. Overbought on multiple time frames and some negative action is beyond overdue. As I said before when the technical signals don't work, I am at a loss as of what to do. My June OEX calls are at a huge loss as well. The sidelines are probably the place to be for now. GE was up 1/4 and the volume was light. If GE is any indication of things to come, then higher prices still are in the future. No trades in mind for GE at this juncture. Gold was up a buck or so on the futures and the US dollar moved higher. The XAU was off 1/4. ABX and GG had slight fractional moves and NEM was down 3/8. Volume remains light here. The fundamentals for gold remain bearish, with a rising US dollar and the continued taper from the Fed. Perhaps looking out to the October calls on the gold shares is the wrong strategy. Oversold for the gold shares and staying there. The exact opposite of the stock indices. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The TRAN finished well off of its highs today and there is a slight negative divergence in the daily RSI. That may or may not mean anything. I do think that we are in some type of blow off high for the major stock indices here. Let us not forget that the first five days in January were negative as was the month of January. Add in that we are in the second term for a lame duck president and the prognosis for some kind of banner year for the stock market doesn't fit. In the shorter term I would be even more surprised if we don't see some kind of downside this week at some point. Gold remains unloved and is going nowhere. I'll keep an eye on it but perhaps will not try a trade there until next month. We'll see. A light economic calendar this week so be prepared to be bored. The summer doldrums could come early this year. We'll keep an eye on tonights market developments and go from there.
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