Thursday, June 12, 2014
More of the overdue downside today as the Dow fell 109 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. Problems in Iraq are the excuse for todays decline but the vastly overbought market has something to do with it. Retail sales were weaker than expected. Still plenty of the overbought condition to work off for the stock indices. The TRAN took a decent hit today on the higher price of oil. Could inflation be coming back? Too early to tell there. The TRAN just violated its short term uptrend line. The major stock indices have not. But maybe, just maybe we are at the end of this crazy ride higher. GE was off about 20 cents and the volume remains light. Gold continues to find a bid as the futures rose $12, following the price of oil. The US dollar was lower today. The tensions in the Ukraine ceased doing much for gold after the first couple of weeks. We'll see how things develop with the problems in Iraq. The XAU rose 2 points and I have missed out on this up move in the gold shares. My timing seems to be off on everything lately. ABX and NEM gained around 1/4, while GG added 7/8. Volume was better for the gold shares. GG is the leader here. I will have to wait for a pullback if I want to try the October calls. That would be the prudent thing to do. Mentally I'm feeling frustrated once again as I sold my OEX June puts near the top. Not that the trade would be a positive one but I could have cut the loss a little better. But it doesn't really matter now. Where we go from here is all that matters. I do not think we will be going down in a straight line. I think we should let the market build a top before the next attempt at some OEX puts. Summer is almost upon us and after the June option cycle ends, I suspect the trading will slow down even more. Gold is now right up to its down trend line that began in March. A valid break there would be bullish. The gold shares have already broken through to the upside. We'll keep an eye on the overnight action and close out the week tomorrow.
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