Thursday, June 05, 2014
We got some movement today and it was to the upside as the Dow gained 98 points on light volume. The advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive. The ECB is now lowering interest rates to have a negative return. What? That is my reaction as now the European central bank has decided to penalize you for not moving your money. This won't end well. But for now all is good. My June OEX puts are dead. I hold them another day only to see the employment report. The stock indices are overbought, have been and are staying that way. The obvious signal is to get short but instead it is a short squeeze. GE reversed yesterdays loss and the volume was a little better. Gold rose nine dollars on the futures as the US dollar fell. The XAU gained 1 2/3. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional gains on light volume. Probably too soon to try the gold share calls again. Patience is the idea here. I'm still looking out to the October option cycle. Mentally of course I am frustrated and disappointed in yet another poorly timed and mismanaged trade. The market remains overbought and the signal to sell is just not working. There is no overhead resistance and my prognosis for the rising wedge was wrong. You cannot argue with price and it keeps going higher. It looks like we are going to be in some kind of blow off top perhaps. Volatility remains very low. Gold found some takers today but I doubt we are at the beginning of some kind of rally. But who knows? Most of what I've been thinking has been wrong lately. The market knows everything. So we'll get tomorrows employment report and see how we trade off of that. My guess would be that higher prices are coming.
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