Friday, June 20, 2014
We finished out the week to the upside as the Dow gained 25 points on expiration heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. New all time highs were seen on some of the major stock indices. It has been quite a run. There are some potential negative divergences in some of the technical indicators, including the McClellan oscillator. They are only potential though, as a continued move to the upside will negate them. The oscillator is projecting a major move in the stock market within the next couple of days. As usual it doesn't project which way. It is something to be aware of. GE was up a few cents and the volume was good. No trades here as I will need to see some weakness to purchase the longer term calls here. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures to close out a stellar week. The US dollar finished the day little changed. The XAU was off 2/3 as the recent gains need to be digested here. ABX and GG had fractional losses, while NEM was up 1/3. Volume was good. Patience will be needed here to obtain some October calls in the gold shares. The recent explosion to the upside is valid in my reasoning. The volume confirms the move. I am still in the camp of waiting for some type of move backwards or at least some sideways consolidation. But it may not happen. The weekly chart of GG looks the most promising with a pretty good reverse head and shoulders pattern in the making. The weekly GDX chart has the same look. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Things are getting very bullish for the stock market in the media. The short term technicals are overbought once again. Option optimism via calls is the highest I've seen it on one of my indicators so far this year. The VIX is near its low for the year as well. I'm not saying that a major decline is right around the corner but this won't go on forever. On the plus side there is no overhead resistance and perhaps we'll get some kind of summer rally. Liquidity is still out there because it takes money and credit to move things higher. Gold had a huge move higher through all of the near term resistance this week. That was impressive. The gold shares led the way higher and that is bullish going forward. I do want to purchase some gold share calls and that looks like it will be the next trade for me. I plan on going out to the October contract but September may work just as well after what we witnessed this week. There are plenty of charts to study over the weekend. Summer begins tomorrow and usually the market will slow down as the major players head out for vacations. That is something to consider when trading options. The sidelines are sometimes the place to be when the trading gets slow. However as always, the markets will do and go where they want. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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