Thursday, June 19, 2014
The Dow rose 14 points today on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. We've now reached short term overbought on the stock indices. There is also a possible negative divergence on the daily RSI for the stock averages. The summation index is basically moving sideways. The trend remains up for now though. GE was up 1/4 on better volume. Still above the 50 day moving average here. Gold exploded to the upside today. The futures rose over $40. I suppose the gold shares strength of the past week or so was precursor. But the move today for gold was strong and with volume. I do believe it is for real. The XAU was up 4 3/8. ABX up 2/3, GG added another 1 1/4 and NEM was up 3/4. Volume was strong. There hasn't been any pullback in the gold shares. Very overbought now in the short term indicators. But that doesn't mean we can't go higher. I still want the October gold share calls if we get any weakness because the set up on some of the charts is very bullish. But it is too late to try them now. Mentally I'm still trying to not get too down on myself for missing out on this huge precious metal move. It isn't easy. The ideal time to purchase the gold share calls has passed. The stock indexes are due for a pause. Whether or not that develops into something more remains to be seen. We are entering what I consider a slow period for the market. Summer is approaching and will be here next week. Option trading gets even trickier than usual. Time decay is the prime element. However if there is a valid signal one way or the other, you have to act on it. But there will probably be plenty of slow, do nothing market days. The summer doldrums. Be aware of that. Gold had a huge break above all the near term resistance on heavy volume. We already knew there were problems in Iraq. Why all of a sudden gold decided to jump today is beyond me. All we need to know is that it did and the dynamics of the gold market have changed. Getting long and getting calls are the way to go. I won't chase things here but I will be ready on a decline. We'll close out the week tomorrow.
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