Monday, October 31, 2011
We closed the month with a pretty big loss as the Dow started the week down 276 points on average volume. The advance/declines were almost 5 to 1 negative. A money management firm went belly up in the US. That, along with locking in some gains from the recent run up in prices were the culprits for todays action in my opinion. But what do I know? I still think we will see higher prices going forward. We may be on our way back to retest the breakout from the congestion zone. That would be around the 1225 level on the S&P 500. We closed on the low for the day and that is short term negative. GE was off 1/2 on lighter volume. No trades here for now. Gold fell today as the US dollar had a very good day. The precious metal lost about $25 on the futures. The XAU fell 6 3/4. ABX down 1 1/3, GG lost 1 1/4 and NEM led the way lower by 1 2/3. The only saving grace was that the volume was lighter than lately. My ABX calls gave up some of the gains but they are still profitable. The weekly charts are still looking good but the daily charts are overbought and rolling over. The ideal situation would be sideways action before heading higher but the time decay of the options would still take effect. There are still 3 weeks left in the November cycle though. It's a tough call. I'm holding on to them for now but that could change at any time. Mentally I'm feeling OK. It was a rough start to the week if you're bullish but we had become extended to the upside. I don't think it's the beginning of some extended downside but you never know. We've got the Fed and the employment report coming up this week, so we could get some volatility. ABX had gone up in a straight line, so some consolidation is expected. However if we have a reversal there and a decline starts my ABX calls will be losers. Stay tuned.
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