Friday, October 07, 2011
An up and down day as the Dow opened higher, sold off, came all the way back and higher only to sell off at the close. We ended the day with a loss of 20 points on average volume. The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow. The employment report came out and was much better than expected. The market tried to rally but couldn't. That may or may not be telling going forward. My OEX puts are in the red as the timing wasn't as good on the entry as it good be but what can you do? That is the trouble sometimes with the stock index options. The timing has to be exact and nothing is exact in this game. The volatility and time premium in the options are already starting a rapid decay. I also had to lower the strike price which certainly doesn't help things. It's not a complete lost cause but I'm not counting on this to be a good trade. GE was flat on the day after trying to get through its 50 day moving average. Volume was average here. I'll be keeping an eye on things here as a proxy for the overall market. It seems to be working that way lately. Gold lost around $17 on the futures and the XAU fell 4 1/4. The US dollar ended little changed despite the good employment report. ABX, GG and NEM all dropped a buck on light volume. I think the gold share calls are the way to go if we retest the recent lows. I'm leaving in the open order for the November ABX calls. Mentally I'm feeling tired as I did not sleep well or long enough. The beginning of next week will be the key. We are at the levels on some of the technicals that have turned back any recent rally attempts. If that remains true, then the OEX puts I own will have a chance. If not, then I believe that the decline is over. That's my best guess at the moment. We didn't rally on good news and that may be telling. Monday is a partial holiday with Columbus day so that may skew things. Plenty to ponder over the weekend. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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