Friday, October 21, 2011
We ended the week with a bang as the Dow gained 267 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 6 to 1 positive. The summation index continues higher. We are breaking out of the congestion zone to the upside. The trend is up until further notice. We'll get some kind of news from Europe over the weekend and that will be the catalyst one way or the other for Monday morning. Declines can be bought. GE lost 1/4 on good volume. The earnings were in line with expectations but it didn't matter. This could be a sign that the overall market will move sideways next week but that's a guess. GE did not participate in the rally. I still want to get some January calls before the end of the year. If and when we get oversold on GE may be the opportunity. I'll keep an eye on things. Gold had a good day, up $28 on the futures and sold off a bit in the aftermarket. The dollar took a hit today. The XAU gained 3 3/8. That didn't help the major gold stocks as ABX and GG were up only 1/4, while NEM gained a buck. Volume was light. My ABX calls are still in the red and it doesn't look like this trade is going to work out. If ABX can't rally on a day gold is up and the market rallies over 200 points, then the calls I own are in trouble. I'm still going to hold out for the earnings next week but that will be about it. At this rate I don't think this trade will get back to break even. ABX opened very strong and then sold off for the rest of the day. That isn't positive price action. We'll see about next week. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept good enough. The stock indices had a strong rally today and appear to be breaking out. We'll see on Monday just how much of today was expiration related. I'm still a believer that the decline is over and higher prices are in the future. We'll see what transpires in Europe over the weekend and go from there. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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