There was a gap up at the open and we never looked back as the Dow gained 46 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  This should move the summation index back up.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  There was no opportunity to purchase the SPY December calls.  Only weakness in the coming days will save doing this idea but that is unlikely.  The timing would have to be near perfect as well since we are running out of time in the December option cycle.  My guess is that we will continue to move higher from here.  The vote in Italy turned out to be a non event for the market.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume was light.  Gold was off about $6 on the futures despite some weakness in the US dollar.  The XAU added 1/2, while GDX was flat.  Volume was to the light side.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The only way to try the SPY December calls from here would to see some decline tomorrow or Wednesday.  The timing would have to be spot on.  We are in the zone where the time premium gets sucked out of the options at a significant rate.  That is hard to overcome if the entry isn't good.  You simply don't have time to let the trade work itself out.  I'm still a believer in higher prices going forward.  So we are simply going to have to wait and see if the next couple of sessions play out in our favor.  If not, it's on to the next thing, whatever that trade may be.  Asia was lower and Europe higher overnight.  There isn't a lot of economic data to trade off of this week.  We'll stick with the technicals and keep an eye on things tonight.

It was kind of a wait and see type of market today despite the employment report.  The Dow dropped 21 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive and the overall market was a bit stronger than the Dow.  The summation index is moving sideways for now.  The jobs report was pretty much in line with expectations and we got a small rally from that.  But there's really no conviction either way for stocks at the moment.  I think that we're waiting for the referendum vote out of Italy on Sunday before we get going anywhere.  I did place an order for the SPY December calls but it wasn't filled.  I'll try again on Monday if I get the chance.  GE was off a nickel and the volume was light.  Gold found some buyers on Italy angst and the futures rose almost ten bucks on the futures.  The US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU went up 3 points, while GDX added 3/4.  Volume was good.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  I still think that we go higher from here and will be once again look to buy weakness on Monday.  The S&P 500 has come off of its highs and is short term oversold on one of my indicators.  We aren't even mid-range yet on most of the technical indicators here but if we get an Italy led sell off on Monday we'll be there.  That would be the ideal scenario for my case to purchase the SPY December calls.  Weakness Monday morning would be all I need to see.  However we could simply rally at the open as well.  Like I said before it is a wait and see game at this point.  I do still like the idea that price and volume lead the way.  I'm looking for new all time highs again before the year is out for the S&P.  All there is to do now is go over the charts this weekend, monitor the vote in Italy and the market reaction on Sunday night.  For now it's Friday afternoon in December and time for a break.

A mixed bag once again as the Dow rose 68 points on very heavy volume to begin the month of December.  The advance/declines were negative and the overall market was much weaker than the Dow.  This is a trend that is not positive.  The summation index may start to move sideways after todays price action.  The big caps leading the way is not the most bullish of scenarios.  I'm still looking at the SPY December calls though as we are getting to mid-range on the short term indicators.  If the rally is for real and I do believe that it is, then buying any weakness tomorrow should work out for that trade.  That is my game plan right here.  If we see weakness after the employment report, I'll be purchasing the calls.  GE was up almost 2/3 on good volume.  There is now a bullish engulfing pattern on the GE daily candlestick chart.  Gold was flat on the session but did come up off of its lows.  The US dollar fell for a change today.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  The recent drop this week in the small caps could prove ominous if it continues.  However I still think that a move back to the 2180 level in the S&P 500 would be an opportunity to get long for the December option cycle.  Perhaps my thinking is wrong here but that is the trade that I'm looking at.  Of course the market could just start to head higher at the open and that would probably doom the trade.  So we'll have to keep an eye on what happens tomorrow morning.  Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight.  Interest rates have risen dramatically since the election and the stock market hasn't really paid much attention.  At some point it will and then there will be trouble for the bulls.  It has been said that the money from selling bonds is going into stocks.  Some of that is probably true but when only a few Dow stocks are going up vs. the rest of the market, there isn't the wholesale buying that you should see from such an occurrence.  I don't normally talk about interest rates but they do effect the stock market at times.  Sooner or in this case later, higher rates will take their toll on the market.  They're having little effect at the moment.  Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight.  We'll see what happens with the jobs numbers tomorrow and the markets reaction to them.

We finished the last session of the month mixed as the Dow added 2 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative and the overall market was much weaker than the Dow.  The summation index is still moving up.  OPEC has decided to cut oil production and the Fed beige book was in line with what was expected.  Technically speaking the short term indicators have rolled over but are not at mid-range yet.  At this rate I may have to wait for the employment report to come out before getting into a position on the SPY.  We also have a potential market mover in the Italian election on December 4th, which is a Sunday.  So there is plenty to consider in an attempt to get the SPY December calls.  GE was off almost 1/3 and the volume picked up to the downside.  Could GE be a precursor to lower prices?  Gold was off $15 on the futures as the US dollar rose again.  The XAU lost a point and GDX shed 3/8.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX picked up today but I do not think that it is the beginning of some kind of big down trend.  Perhaps a move back to the breakout level of around 2180 for the S&P 500 at the most.  That's my view at the moment.  I still favor the SPY December calls in the coming days.  I may place an open order overnight.  There are some near term unknowns concerning the jobs numbers and the situation in Italy.  But once we get through that, I don't see any major obstacles to higher prices.  I could be wrong.  One thing that is a concern is that the small stocks are not in the lead higher here and it's just the opposite.  The Dow leadership is usually a late in the rally type of action.  But for now I'm giving the benefit of the doubt to the recent rise in prices.  The volume has been really good and the small stocks have led the way up until now.  The rising summation index is also a positive.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight but not by much.  We'll move on to the month of December tomorrow.

Just hanging around today as the Dow fell off of its highs for the session.  The most watched index rose 23 points on OK volume.  The advance/declines were barely negative.  The summation index is moving up.  Still on the overbought side for the short term.  Perhaps we'll get a chance to purchase some calls on Thursday, if the short term decline continues.  Otherwise I'll have to take a wait and see approach.  There's still room to go lower here as most stock indices are still pretty far above their 50 day moving averages.  The prudent course of action would be to wait for a fall back towards those averages before attempting the SPY December calls.  GE was off 20 cents on average volume.  No hurry to do anything here.  Gold barely budged on the futures and the US dollar was off a bit.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on lighter volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  End of the month tomorrow.  There's an OPEC meeting on the docket.  Plus the Feds beige book.  Not sure what that will bring but trying to remain patient for now.  I still think that the rally has legs, it is just a matter on the timing for getting long in the December option cycle.  Not an easy task to be sure.  But one that should be profitable if I can pull it off.  So we'll wait and see.  Asia was mixed and Europe generally higher yesterday.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The week begins with a thud as the Dow fell 54 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The summation index continues higher though.  The market could not go up in a straight line forever.  I think that any pullback can be bought at this stage.  If we are weaker into Thursday, I'll be looking at the SPY December calls.  The short term technical indicators remain overbought but if we get back to mid-range on them I'm a buyer.  I'd probably like to be long going into the employment report if the market cooperates.  GE was off about 20 cents on light volume.  Overextended here as well.  Gold rose almost $15 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU was up 2 1/2, while GDX gained 3/4.  Volume was good here.  I don't think this is the start of anything serious to the upside but I've been wrong before.  However the fundamentals do not favor gold at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've had quite a post election rally and today is really the first negative session for all of the stock indices.  We opened lower and stayed that way for much of the trading day.  Could the rally be over?  perhaps in the short term but I do believe that this advance has legs.  Unless the summation index turns around, I'm looking for higher prices going forward.  It will be tricky because I don't think the indicators will get to all the way oversold, as they did on the last trade.  However we will keep a close watch on things as they develop this week.  The ideal scenario of a clear signal probably won't show up before this trade needs to be entered.  I'm pretty confident of higher highs before the December expiration.  Asia was mostly higher and Europe lower overnight.  We'll see what transpires overnight.

A very light volume levitation for the day after Thanksgiving as the Dow rose 68 points during the shortened session.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues to move up.  No overhead resistance and we'll just have to see how far it goes.  Overbought, staying there and due for some kind of rest at some point.  Where that point develops is anyones guess.  GE was up a dime on the same listless volume.  Gold was basically flat as the US dollar was off a bit.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on anemic volume.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  New all time highs in many indices on a daily basis now.  Not a lot of press or media about it here so the rally can continue.  When everybody is talking about how great stocks are will be the warning sign to head for the exits.  We aren't there yet.  I'll continue to look and hope for some decline to try the SPY December calls.  However at the rate things are going, I may just have to remain on the sidelines.  3 weeks to go in the December option cycle.  Plenty of economic data due next week including the jobs report.  End of the month as well with the Feds beige book.  Enjoy the rest of the long weekend.

Still moving higher as the Dow gained 59 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index is moving up.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow, with the NASDAQ lower on the session.  But as I said before, it won't matter because we are on a ride to higher prices.  Still overbought on the short term indicators with no signs of rolling over.  It's a holiday week rally and there is no overhead resistance for the Dow and S&P.  GE was up over 1/8 on light volume.  The same overbought conditions are in place here.  Gold fell below the $1200 level as the futures dropped over twenty bucks.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU lost 3 points and GDX shed a point.  Volume was heavy.  It appears the theme since the US election has been dump gold and bonds.  At the same time buy stocks and the US dollar.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  No break in the rally and the idea for getting some SPY December calls seems as though its time has passed.  No point in chasing this rally now.  Perhaps the best idea is to take a break now that Thanksgiving is here.  Friday will be a light volume shortened session that will probably have an upward bias.  There will still be 3 weeks to go in the December option cycle when things return to normal on Monday.  Asia was slightly higher and Europe slightly lower overnight.  Have a Happy Thanksgiving everyone.

Up and away we continue to go as the Dow gained 67 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is heading higher.  There is nothing to stop this incredible rally that began the day after the US election.  The overall market was a bit weaker than the Dow but that won't matter.  We closed above a couple of milestones.  19000 for the Dow and 2200 for the S&P 500.  Tomorrow should be a get away day before the Thanksgiving holiday.  GE was up 1/3 on light volume.  Overbought and staying there remains the theme here.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures and the US dollar was a bit higher as well.  The XAU and GDX were slightly higher on very light volume.  I do not see any imminent rally for the precious metals complex.  Sideways is the most we can hope for here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  At the rate we are going, there won't be a chance for the SPY December calls.  I do not want to chase this rally at this point.  Patience is required but we must be open to the possibility that we are waiting for an opportunity that will never arrive.  The next trade could wind up being in the opposite direction.  For now we'll wait and see if we get any kind of return for the technical indicators to at least mid-range.  Or a move towards the 50 day moving average at the very least.  Price and importantly volume tell you that the move up is for real.  It is much easier of course to trade with the trend.  Whether or not we get a chance to is the question.  Europe and Asia were both higher overnight.  Expect a muted session tomorrow.

Onward and upward as the stock market rally continues.  The Dow rose 88 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  Overbought, staying there and hitting new all time highs as we go.  The stock market remains strong and there is no pullback to get long.  The fact that hitting new all time highs isn't even press worthy lets you know there is plenty of room to go on the upside.  I'm still looking at the SPY December calls if I get the chance.  Doubtful at this point.  GE was up 20 cents on light volume.  Gold was up $3 on the futures as the US dollar was lower for a change.  The XAU added 1 3/4, while GDX gained 3/8.  Volume was light.  The gold shares continue in the down trend that began in August.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A holiday week and buying is in vogue.  There is no overhead resistance.  We're over extended any way you measure it.  I certainly don't want to chase things here but what can you do?  I'm probably going to let this week pass unless we get a sharp drop, which I don't expect.  We should drift higher into Thanksgiving and then add a bit on the short Friday session.  Money is flowing into stocks.  We don't need to know the reasons we just need to pay attention and attempt to profit from it.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight.  I don't expect much volatility leading into the holiday.  We'll be watching things as usual though.

Friday of expiration week finished lower as the Dow fell 34 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is heading higher.  Lackluster trading to be sure as perhaps the holiday mode has begun early.  I'd still look to get long if we continue lower in the near term.  A pause to relieve the overbought condition would be healthy when it comes to moving forward later in the December option cycle.  Wishful thinking on my part and it hasn't happened yet.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was light.  Gold fell almost ten bucks on the futures as the US dollar continues its climb.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on lighter volume.  No love for gold in this environment.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  It's been quite a run since the US election and I don't think anybody saw a rally of this magnitude occurring in such a short time.  The market really could use a breather.  The Thanksgiving holiday week is coming up and I expect slow trading to follow.  It will probably be a time to get ready for the end of the month and the beginning of December.  I'll be keeping an eye out for the SPY December calls as I don't foresee any obstacles at the moment to the levitation in stocks.  If we can get the short term technical indicators back to mid-range, that would be enough in my opinion to try the calls again.  We'll see.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower last night.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend but I can already tell you that they remain overbought on the major stock indices.  Patience is most likely the trait that will be required at the moment.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Moving up again as the Dow rose 35 points on what now passes for average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly higher.  The summation index is heading higher.  Overbought and staying there.  The overall market was once again stronger than the Dow and that's a positive.  We are going higher, it just won't be as fast as we've seen.  Any decline can be bought.  There is nothing to derail the momentum at the moment.  Option expiration tomorrow before a holiday week.  I expect another day of gains.  GE was up a nickel on very light volume.  Gold was off $6 on the futures as the US dollar continues to climb.  The XAU fell 1 2/3, while GDX shed 1/2.  Volume was good.  The gold shares are about to experience the death cross, with the 50 day moving average going below the 200 day moving average.  The fundamentals and the technicals do not favor the gold shares here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I did not do the short term SPY November call trade, as I was not nimble enough to pull it off.  The idea turned out to be solid though.  I am considering the SPY December calls if we do see some type of decline soon.  But that may never come.  The strength of this run up has been exceptional, as the volume indicates.  I think that everyone is looking for a pullback to purchase.  Thanksgiving week is generally slow but bullish, so there probably won't be an opportunity there.  I suppose I'll simply have to remain patient and wait for a decent set up.  Europe and Asia generally had slight gains in overnight trade.  We'll close out the week with options expiration Friday tomorrow.

Taking a breather as the Dow fell 55 points on lesser volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is heading up.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ higher on the session.  We were overdue for some profit taking or decline and got that today.  I'm still considering a short term trade with 3 days to go on the November option cycle but will probably hold off.  I'm considering the December SPY calls as well.  We remain overbought on the short term indicators.  I do look for higher prices going forward though.  GE was flat on the day with light volume.  Gold didn't do much today as the US dollar continues to climb.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It has been quite a run for stocks but I would expect them to take a rest here with a holiday week coming up.  If we can get the short term technical indicators to come off of their overbought condition perhaps we'll see an entry point for a SPY December call trade.  As for trying another SPY November call trade with 2 days to go, we'll have to see weakness in the morning tomorrow and go from there.  The risk would be very high to try that trade but I might.  I expect stocks to finish the week higher.  Plus we could see some more of the positive expiration week bias.  Once again, the short term trades are not my greatest strength.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and see what tomorrow brings.

The rally rolls on as the Dow gained 54 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were well over 2 to 1 positive.  This will turn the summation index back up.  We should hit a new all time high in the S&P 500 at some point this week and it could be tomorrow.  Short term overbought and staying there for the technical indicators.  Any sustained weakness, if we get some, can be bought in my opinion.  Price and volume tell the story and things are looking pretty bullish at the moment.  The economic data came in as expected.  Despite all that, I did sell my SPY November calls today.  The 2 days prior to today took out most of the volatility premium and with only 3 days to go the risk of holding on wasn't worth it to me.  I do think we could go higher tomorrow but we could just as easily pause.  That would lead to a decline in the calls that I was not willing to risk.  The profit was over 100%.  As crazy as it sounds, I may try these calls again if we see some weakness tomorrow and the very short term technical indicators drop.  But that remains to be seen.  GE was up 1/4 and the volume was good.  I'm considering the January calls here if we get some pullback to the downtrend line that was broken.  Hasn't happened yet and it may not.  Gold was up a couple backs on the futures and the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU gained 3 1/2, while GDX rose 7/8.  Volume was good.  Maybe some bargain hunting here but there is no assurance that the decline has ended for gold and the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  This rally is incredible by any standard.  Just as prices don't go down forever in a straight line, they don't go up forever either.  We could simply move higher into the expiration but I do think we'll get some kind of at least short term decline in the next 3 days.  I could be wrong.  The market stays overbought longer than when it is oversold.  So we'll have to see what happens.  I might try a very short term call trade on weakness but the short term stuff is not usually my strong point.  At any rate, the medium term picture is bullish as well and with the summation index heading higher now the trend will remain higher for an extended period of time.  That's my guess at the moment.  Slight moves and generally positive last night for the overseas markets.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow. 

The Dow keeps climbing as it gained another 21 points on extremely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive and the overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The summation index is still trying to turn around.  Volume has been incredible lately and it is to the upside.  I do think that this election rally has legs beyond the near term.  I'm still holding on to the SPY November calls but the risk increases with each passing day.  There's only 4 days left in the November option cycle.  This trade still shows a profit but it appears the ideal time to sell has come and gone.  I'm looking for another run to the 2180 level to get rid of them.  Running out of time though and the market is short term overbought.  GE lost 20 cents on lighter volume.  Probably time for a rest here.  Gold lost a few bucks on the futures as the US dollar continues its recent run up.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on heavy volume.  Perhaps things have gone too far, too fast for the gold shares.  We'll see as the week unfolds.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Plenty of economic data out this week, beginning with tomorrows retail sales.  Inflation data is coming out as the week progresses.  My thinking is that traders will take care of any business this week as it is a holiday week next week with Thanksgiving.  The technical indicators are overbought on the short term but we have had a pause after the initial huge run up after the election.  Markets tend to stay overbought during up trends and that is what I think we are seeing now.  That is why I've continued to hold on to the SPY November call trade, even though time is running out.  I do think that another attempt at the 2180 level on the S&P 500 is not out of the question this week.  I could be wrong.  Asia was mixed and Europe slightly positive overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The Dow just keeps on going as it rose 39 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is still trying to turn around.  It was a mixed bag as the S&P 500 was lower today but the small stocks rallied.  The volume to the upside has been incredible this week and I believe it means that we'll still see higher prices in the coming weeks.  A new all time high for the Dow and the S&P shouldn't be too far behind.  We saw a lot happen in the markets this week.  It probably won't be this volatile going forward.  I sincerely doubt it.  We are short term overbought on the major stock indices at this point.  Some backing and filling is bound to take place.  My SPY November calls are still in the black but here is only a week to go in the November option cycle.  Getting out of this position with the best profit will be tricky.  Or that time may have already passed.  Plenty to think about over the weekend regarding that trade.  GE was up another 1/3 on good volume.  Probably too late for the January calls there.  Gold got clobbered again as the higher dollar along with higher interest rates have taken the shine off of the precious metal.  The XAU dropped 5 3/4, while GDX lost over 1 3/4.  Volume was very heavy again.  We'll have to see how low we go here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The price action and volume this week was extremely positive for stocks.  The INDU, TRAN and RUT are just some examples.  I don't expect a repeat of last week going forward but I am certainly positive on the outlook for equities.  Price and volume are things that you can usually count on for direction.  The S&P is overbought in the short run but there's still room to go higher medium term.  Exiting the SPY November call trade will be my main focus next week.  I could maybe give it until Wednesday of next week for the exit.  Anything beyond that would even entail more risk.  As I said before, I may have already missed the ideal exit point.  I'll be checking out the charts over the weekend.  Hopefully we'll see the usual positive expiration week bias but there are no guarantees.  It was quite an interesting trading week to be sure.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The rally continued for the big caps as the Dow added another 218 points on extremely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were lower though and the NASDAQ was lower.  The summation index is still trying to turn around.  The overall market was much weaker than the Dow and that is usually not a positive sign.  However with the volume expanding to the upside in such a big way, I still think that we're going higher before expiration next week.  The Dow is at a new all time high and I would expect at least the S&P 500 to do the same.  Longer term, it isn't usually bullish when you have the Dow leading the way.  But all we need is the summation index to start moving up and we'll see higher prices on all the major averages.  GE gained 3/4 on more than double normal volume.  And it was higher than that during the session.  I'm still considering the January calls here on a pullback if we get one.  Gold was off about $10 on the futures as the US dollar continues to climb.  The XAU dropped 6 points, while GDX shed 1 7/8.  Volume was extremely heavy.  The higher dollar along with higher interest rates makes gold unattractive at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I did put in a limit order to sell my SPY November calls but it wasn't filled.  Close but it didn't happen.  At this point it appears that I'll hang on to them until next week.  They are in the black and unless we see some extended decline in the next 6 days, this trade will turn a profit.  Money is pouring into US stocks right now and we are just getting to short term overbought.  Another plus day tomorrow and we'll be there.  Friday is a partial US holiday, with the bond market closed.  Perhaps the stock market will quiet down for a day.  Any declines can be bought in my opinion.  Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight.  We'll finish up a crazy market week tomorrow.

Now that was an interesting 24 market hours.  The US election was an upset as Donald Trump prevailed.  I was wrong on that guess.  Markets around the world collapsed on the realization that Trump was going to become president of the US.  The S&P 500 futures were down over 100 points.  It was incredible.  Even more incredible was the comeback.  The market came all the way back and then some.  The Dow finished today up 256 points on extremely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still trying to turn around.  The weak advance/declines for the past 2 sessions is puzzling.  I would have thought that we'd see at least a 2 to 1 or 3 to 1 ratio there.  You can't argue with price though.  My SPY November calls are still in the black.  GE was up almost 1/4 on heavy volume.  Gold, which had rallied $50 overnight finished with a gain of $5 on the futures.  The US dollar was stronger.  The XAU was up 2 2/3, while GDX added 2/3.  Volume was heavy but the gold shares finished well off of their highs.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock market crashed and came back all in a 24 hour period.  Well, the futures market did.  The cash market fell a bit this morning but then rallied hard.  We are getting to short term overbought but aren't there yet.  Of course we could always remain overbought once we get there.  I'm inclined to take whatever profit I have in this SPY trade tomorrow but I do think that we're going higher before expiration.  Friday is a semi-holiday for Veterans day and the bond market will be closed.  What happened in the markets last night was crazy and I hope we don't see anything like that again anytime soon.  There is no way to trade that kind of market action using options when the options market is closed.  The volume today was huge and we did break some downtrend lines on various indices.  So I still think that we're going higher.  It is a matter of how much before expiration and when to sell out the current SPY November call position.  I can make a case for holding on until next week but that's something I'll have to think about tonight.  Asia got rocked last night, while Europe was able to follow the US and finished with decent gains.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight action.

Still moving higher today as the Dow rose 73 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still trying to turn around.  We'll get the election results tonight and go from there.  The market is still not short term overbought yet.  My SPY November calls are still in the black.  I'll seriously be thinking about selling them if we get follow through upside tomorrow morning.  But I do think that this is the start of a longer term move higher.  If we can get the summation index turned back up, that would strengthen the rally theory.  The VIX has room to move lower as well.  GE was up 1/8 on OK volume.  We've made it back to the 50 day moving average here.  Gold was off $4 on the futures and the US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  With most of the earnings out of the way and the election season in the rear view mirror, what will be moving the market next?  That will the question on traders minds and I certainly don't have the answer.  I do know that the summation index is poised to turn back up and that would lead to a sustained move higher.  Hasn't happened yet but I do think that it will.  I think that with 9 days in a row lower for the S&P, the market pretty much sold itself out for the short term.  Unless there is a Trump upset victory tonight, we're going higher and to new all time highs before the year is out.  That's nothing that anybody is talking about now and the market likes to do what is least expected at times.  This could be one of those times.  Europe and Asia were generally higher but not significantly.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

An oversold bounce and then some.  The Dow soared 371 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were about 5 to 1 positive.  I don't think the summation index will be turned around after todays market move but it is on the way to doing so.  Extremely oversold is where we were and we're not overbought yet.  Short covering and some new money came into play today.  My SPY November calls have moved all the way back into the black.  I think that this is the start of a move higher and I think that I'll hold these calls until Wednesday.  Of course I could change my mind.  I certainly did not expect a 46 point move up in one day for the S&P 500.  GE was up 7/8 on good volume.  Over the weekend I considered buying some January calls here but it is probably too late for that.  I still may if we get a pullback but I don't see that happening in the near future.  Gold got whacked as the flight to safety ended.  The precious metal futures fell over $20 as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU fell 2 1/3, while GDX lost a point.  Volume was good.  I'd expect gold and the gold shares to be lower to sideways until after the next Fed meeting.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We gained all that we lost last week in a day.  That wasn't expected by anyone.  Small stocks had huge moves today and the TRAN broke out above overhead resistance.  I think that the move higher has legs.  The advance/decline volume was almost 10 to 1 positive as well.  We'll have to see how the rest of the week plays out but if the gains hold, the medium term picture will turn bullish as well.  So we'll see.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight as well.  The market may be on hold tomorrow to get the election out of the way but I do think that we'll be moving higher.  New all time highs before the year is out?  As we've recently seen, anything is possible.

Down yet again today as the Dow could not hold onto its gains and lost 42 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive though and the overall market wasn't as weak as the Dow.  The summation index continues lower.  The employment report was just a tad weaker than anticipated.  There is something going on here but I certainly don't know what.  The extreme oversold condition of the market is dangerous but we still haven't seen a collapse.  My SPY November calls are still losers and it will take quite a miracle to get back to break even, if that's even possible.  The bounce that I'm waiting for has never arrived.  Oversold on all levels.  GE was up 1/8 or so on good volume.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures and the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on average volume.  Still short term overbought for the gold miners.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Very extreme technical conditions at the moment.  This is something that is rarely experienced.  My guess is that we are going to get a giant relief rally after the election next week.  I do not think that we are going to crash.  The market has had that opportunity to collapse all week and it simply meanders its way lower.  The technical position that we're in is rare.  I suppose anything could happen but I would be shocked if we didn't get a huge move to the upside at some point in the coming week.  It may not last but it would be a chance to exit the SPY calls at a smaller loss.  Or who knows?  Perhaps it would be the beginning of a sustained move higher.  2 weeks to go in the November option cycle.  Once again I'll say that I do not know what is going on here with the market.  I do know that the market usually knows more than we do.  The extreme condition that we see today will probably resolve itself with something just as extreme.  Next week should be one of the most interesting market weeks that we've had in a while.  That is my prediction.  I'm also expecting a multi-hundred point move on some day during next week.  And my guess it that it will be to the upside.  I cannot stress enough the strangeness of the stock market at the moment.  The weakness is coming from something but I do not think that it's the US election.  Clinton should win and Congress should be split by party.  Perhaps there's something else that the market knows and we'll eventually find out.  I don't know.  Asia and Europe were mildly lower overnight, again with the exception of the losses in NIKK.  Plenty of charts to study over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The downtrend continues as the Dow fell 29 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  I have no explanation for what we are seeing here.  We are at a point where we should have seen a bounce or a collapse.  Neither has occurred.  The decline is slow and orderly.  Oversold on all indicators with no short covering or relief rally.  My SPY November calls are solidly in the red.  I suppose at this rate I will at least wait for the election before dumping them.  This is one of the strangest market periods that I've seen.  GE was off another 1/4 on light volume.  Gold was off around $5 on the futures as the US dollar continues to the downside.  The XAU rose 1 2/3, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was average.  Still overbought on the short term for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm doing OK besides being confused about the goings on here.  Perhaps the employment report tomorrow will bring some added volatility.  That's just a guess.  The VIX is already in the 20's and overbought.  But at the rate things are going here, that won't mean anything.  An extremely puzzling market situation is what we have here, only because the oversold condition persists without any relief.  The trend is obviously down and the small stocks have been the leaders.  Near term support has been violated on many charts and the 200 day moving average is now in play in several instances.  I've been looking for a bounce all week and it hasn't happened.  I guess I can't rule out the status quo move lower until the election.  That is something that I did not count on or expect.  When the normal technical indicators don't work, it usually means we're in extraordinary times.  It certainly doesn't seem like that to me.  But the market always has the final say and the support I saw at 2100 for the S&P 500 hasn't held either.  Asia and Europe were mostly lower with NIKK having the biggest decline.  We'll finish up the week tomorrow on the jobs report.  Interesting times. 

Oversold and still moving lower as the Dow fell 77 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading down.  The Fed announcement came and went.  We got a little rally there but could not hold on.  We are at a spot technically that deserves some upside unless we crash.  I do not expect the market to fall apart here.  The bounce that I'm looking for is long overdue.  The readings on my indicators point to this being an ideal time to buy, even for the medium term.  The roughly 2100 level on the S&P 500 should hold and I'm looking for higher prices from here.  My SPY November calls are well in the red but even these have a chance to get back to break even with just over 2 weeks in the November option cycle.  So we'll see.  GE was off over 1/3 on average volume.  It was a new closing low for GE in its slide.  Gold was up about $20 but fell in the aftermarket.  The US dollar lost ground again.  The XAU and GDX had one day reversals to the downside, opening higher and closing lower.  They lost 1 1/2 and 1/3 respectively on heavy volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It appears that fear and uncertainty have gripped the market.  Unless something is going on under the surface that I'm not aware of, these fears will prove unfounded.  The technical indicators are so oversold that we almost have to move higher.  Some of the major indexes are either at or near their 200 day moving averages.  They should find support there.  The only thing that would negate the positive near term outlook here is a market crash.  When you get the extreme readings we are seeing now along with all the negative market media, it's time to take the other side.  I could be wrong but I really don't think so.  I still expect a decent bounce and it should happen before the close on Friday.  I don't see any surprises with the US election and there should be a relief rally in a week for US equities.  I'm sticking with the theory that SPY calls are the way to go here.  Europe and Asia had decent losses overnight.  We'll be keeping an eye on the overnight action.

Volatility returned today as the Dow fell 105 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still heading lower.  We were off just over 200 at the lows of the session.  The S&P 500 broke the support at 2120 and dipped below 2100.  I think that 2100 should hold things here but the market will go where it wants.  Remaining short term oversold for the major averages and that could be dangerous as we saw today.  However I am still a believer in the SPY November calls at this juncture and I did purchase some today.  Of course I was early and paid more than I wanted to for them.  I should have waited to see if we were going to hit the 2100 level once we broke 2120.  Hindsight is never wrong and does you no good in the heat of the battle.  I'm rusty for sure but what I saw today is opportunity to me.  GE lost about 1/4 on average volume.  Gold found buyers with the drop in equities.  The precious metal futures rose $16 as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU gained 2 1/3, while GDX added almost 2/3.  Volume was good again.  Short term overbought on the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm not sure where this decline is heading but I do expect a bounce right now.  With the market recovering half of what it lost today, perhaps we've seen the worst of the selling for now.  My owns short term indicators are very oversold and some kind of upside is coming.  Whether or not it's enough to get my SPY November calls in the black is another question.  Timing is everything when it comes to trading options for the short term.  If we do simply continue to trade lower then be ready for some type of collapse.  But I do believe we'll at least hold up here for a couple of days.  We've got the Fed announcement tomorrow and that should really be a non event.  The jobs report on Friday will probably be viewed as more important.  Plus whatever headlines come out of the election propaganda before the 8th.  Plenty of noise for the markets to sift through.  We'll stick to the technicals and expect some upside bounce tomorrow.  Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight.  I'm expecting the 2100 level to hold for the S&P 500 and perhaps will look to try the calls again if we get back there. 

We started the week and finished the month of October pretty much flat on the session.  The Dow fell 18 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index continues lower.  We were positive for most of the day and did not really see any decline.  I did place an order for the SPY November calls.  It wasn't filled but I am leaving it open overnight.  We are now short term overbought and should be heading higher from here.  A bounce at the least.  I can only hope that I'll be able to take advantage of it.  The VIX was higher today but there wasn't any volatility or decline.  I'm puzzled about that.  We've got economic data due this week and a Fed meeting.  So there will be plenty of excuses for things to happen.  I'm sticking with the buy weakness mantra.  I do believe that it will work here.  GE was off 1/8 after being higher earlier on heavy volume.  Still moving here on the takeover/acquisition talk.  Gold didn't do much today and the US dollar was little changed as well.  The XAU gained 2 1/8, while GDX added 3/4.  Volume was good.  Perhaps the gold shares will be leading the precious metal higher.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll begin the month of November tomorrow and the seasonality factor will be positive for stocks despite the election for now.  Plenty of time in the November option cycle.  I'm not sure what the market is waiting for but I do expect positive price action near term.  It would be great to see some weakness early tomorrow morning to perhaps fill my option order but that is just wishful thinking.  I would be surprised if we were lower on the day tomorrow.  The SPY option premiums are too high for my taste at the moment.  That said, the time for the calls is now in my opinion.  Europe and Asia were slightly lower overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

Another interesting session as the Dow fell 8 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues lower.  We bounced around all over the place today with the overall market continuing to be weaker than the Dow.  The S&P 500 challenged the support at 2120 and bounced off.  Not completely short term oversold for the S&P but we will get there if Monday is negative.  My thinking is that any decline on Monday can be bought.  I'll be looking to purchase the SPY November calls.  The premiums are still high for the strike price that I'm looking at but there will be a short term buy signal if we close lower on Monday.  GE jumped 5/8 today on the possible takeover of a rival.  There is no other explanation for the sudden move in GE.  Volume was 2 times normal.  Gold rose $7 on the futures as the US dollar was lower despite a GDP report that was a bit better than expected.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  My indicators are setting up for a buy on Monday if there is weakness.  I'm not sure if it will be the beginning of a rally or simply another case of relieving the short term oversold condition of the market.  The small stocks have been very weak of late and that isn't a good sign for calls.  The Dow has had better relative strength and that is something that is also a concern.  The daily chart of the Dow also has the Bollinger bands contracting to the point where we should see some type of big move one way or the other soon.  It is altogether possible that we are on the verge of a breakdown.  The lower summation index and small stock under performance are bearish.  However we are technically nearing the condition where we should at least see a bounce after Mondays price action.  I could be wrong but I'll be looking to purchase some SPY November calls.  Perhaps we'll see a final shake out before heading higher.  That would be the ideal scenario.  There will be plenty of charts to study over the weekend.  Monday will end the month of October as well.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

Lower today as we couldn't find any buyers in the final hour.  The Dow fell about 30 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were more than 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  Once again the overall market was weaker than the Dow with the small stocks leading the way.  That is not a bullish condition.  I canceled my open order for the SPY November calls.  I'd like to try this trade again tomorrow or perhaps Monday if we continue to move lower.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages have rolled over with the exception of the Dow.  Waiting for an oversold reading would be the prudent course of action.  That reading could come on Monday if we continue to trend down.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume was light.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures today, while the US dollar was higher.  The XAU shed 1 1/8, while GDX lost 3/8.  Volume was average.  The gold shares now appear to be rolling back over.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX has turned back up and so have its short term technical indicators.  That isn't a positive development.  The summation index is moving lower.  As much as I would like to purchase some SPY November calls, the technical picture is telling a different story.  The small stocks are really under performing lately and that is not a good sign for the bulls.  RUT has already broken the lower boundary of its trading channel and NYA is on the cusp of doing the same.  It appears that my idea for the SPY calls is the wrong one.  But we'll see.  The reaction to the GDP report tomorrow will be the key for Fridays trading I believe.  The final hour drop today wasn't encouraging.  Plenty of time in the November option cycle to do a trade of some sort.  We'll take our cues form the market and right now it is saying that we're headed lower.  Perhaps things won't be cleared up until after the election.  Or not.  Plenty to ponder.  Asia was lower and Europe little changed last night.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.   

A mixed bag today as the Dow was higher but the rest of the indices trailed.  The most watched index gained 30 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  This should turn the summation index back down and that is not a positive sign.  The overall market was much weaker than the Dow, with the small stocks leading the way lower.  These are not bullish indications.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages have begun to roll over as well, with the exception of the Dow.  The RUT hit a fresh new recent low.  I did place an order for the SPY November calls though but it wasn't filled.  I'm leaving the order in overnight.  GE was up almost 1/4 on light volume.  Gold fell $6 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit lower as well.  The XAU shed 1 7/8, while GDX lost 1/2.  Volume was good.  Mentally I feel OK.  The technical back drop for getting the SPY November calls isn't ideal.  I may be early, as I can make a case for waiting to purchase them until we are short term oversold.  I do expect Friday to be a day of movement in the stock exchanges, off of the 3rd quarter GDP report.  I certainly do not know which way.  We've been in a trend channel for the S&P 500 for 4 months.  The range is roughly 2190-2120.  Once we break out, the move higher or lower should be pretty good.  You want to be in on that.  I'm thinking that we'll have another test of the lower end and that it will hold.  I could be wrong.  For me, the question is whether or not to wait for the GDP number on Friday.  I suppose I'll have to see how we move tomorrow and take it from there.  Europe and Asia were generally lower last night. 

Lower today as the Dow fell 53 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is trending sideways.  Better volume to the downside and that is not a positive.  The market really can't get anything going one way or the other.  Short term overbought and oversold conditions are met with small moves one way or the other to relieve the conditions.  It is a tough and treacherous trading environment.  I am still looking to try the SPY November calls this week if we continue lower.  Perhaps tomorrow will be the day but the technical indicators are not exactly where I want them for a purchase.  I may have to err on the side of caution.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume was light.  Poor performance here is another sign of trouble.  However we've been dropping here for a few months while the overall market has moved sideways.  Gold rose over $10 on the futures as the US dollar finished little changed again.  The XAU was up 2 1/4, while GDX added better than 1/2.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  I am still recovering from my hospital nightmare but do feel well enough to trade.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages are starting to roll over again.  That is one of my concerns in attempting to place a trade on the call side in the next few days.  We do have some economic data coming out in the next 3 days.  The most market worthy in my mind will be the first look at GDP for the 3rd quarter on Friday.  I do believe that will be a mover for equities and as always the question is which way?  I'm now thinking that if we head lower into Thursday morning, that will be where I'd take a chance on the November calls.  But we still have tomorrow to get through.  Things are never set in stone with this game.  We could also simply head down from here and take out the lows.  That would negate any ideas of trading in calls near term.  So there's plenty to keep an eye on this week.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight, with nominal moves.  We'll get earnings from AAPL after the bell and that could set the tone for tomorrow.

We begin the week with a nice gain as the Dow rose 77 points on what passes for average volume these days.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still trying to turn around and I believe that it will.  The small stocks along with the overall market were stronger than the Dow.  That's a positive and that's what I'd like to see.  Getting short term overbought for the major indices.  Any weakness now can be bought in my opinion.  I'm looking at the SPY November calls and if we see some pullback this week, that is what I will purchase for the next trade.  The ideal scenario would be a down day tomorrow with follow through on Wednesday morning.  That would be the purchase time if things occur in that order.  The market rarely cooperates.  GE was of a few cents on average volume.  Gold fell a couple bucks on the futures.  The US dollar didn't move much.  The XAU lost 1 3/4, while GDX shed 1/2.  Volume was average.  The short term technical indicators for the gold shares appear to be rolling back over here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We're still waiting for something to happen with the months long trend channel that we've been stuck in.  My short term indicators say that we should see some downside tomorrow but they aren't right all the time.  Nothing is.  Plenty of time in the November option cycle to make a trade.  Perhaps I'm wrong here and we will simply continue to move sideways.  However with the summation index attempting to turn back up, I'm going to take my cues from there.  Europe and Asia were generally higher last night, although the FTSE was down.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and go from there.

The Dow lost 16 points today on what passes for average volume these days.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  We sold off early and spent the rest of the day trying to get back to even.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow, with the small stocks leading the way.  That is a positive.  I'll be looking to get some SPY November calls on weakness next week.  Another test of the recent lows would be the ideal scenario for me.  GE was off about a dime and followed the overall market pattern for the session.  Down early and trying to come back.  My idea of purchasing the calls and puts only would have worked if you sold out of both positions in the first 5 minutes of trading.  The profit would have been small and certainly not worth the risk.  The calls would have been wiped out and the gain on the puts would have barely put the 2 trades into the black.  The price movement on the earnings wasn't big enough to make that idea worth it.  But of course, you don't know that ahead of time.  The gold futures were flat with the US dollar higher yet again.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on very light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We made it through option expiration week and it was pretty tame considering that it's October.  I'd like to think that the market is going to hold in here and some type of rally is about to begin.  The short term technical indicators for the major indices are still mid-range.  The summation index is trying to turn around here in my opinion.  We're at an important point for the S&P.  If we roll over and take out the support at 2120, we could see a decent decline.  But it seems to me like the market wants to hang in here with the recent price action.  What I don't want to see is more of the same sideways price action that leads to nowhere.  With the November option cycle now in play, we have a full 4 weeks of time premium left.  More sideways inaction will erode the premium and make outright speculation even more difficult that it already is.  But we all know that you can't tell the market what to do.  It will get where it's going in its own time.  I'm sticking with the SPY November calls theory for now.  Europe and Asia were mixed last night with slight price moves.  I'll check the charts over the weekend as usual.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

Bouncing around today as the Dow fell 40 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is trying to turn around.  What happens here with the summation index should tell us if we are going to get some type of rally or plummet.  That is what I believe right now.  The short term indicators for the S&P are back to mid-range  I also still expect a positive resolution to the multi-month channel that the S&P 500 is in.  I'm still looking at the SPY November calls as the next trade.  GE was flat and the volume was average for lately.  I did like the idea of getting both the $29 puts and calls for October, with the earnings due tomorrow.  However I did not risk any money on this idea.  We'll see if it would have worked.  Gold was off a few bucks on the futures and the US dollar was higher today.  The XAU and GDX both had very slight fractional losses on pretty light volume.  It's possible that the decline in the gold shares is over.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not a lot of volatility considering it is option expiration week.  Things have been pretty orderly so far.  We've worked off the short term oversold condition, so there's a possibility that we'll head back to test the recent lows again.  If that occurs, I will be getting some SPY November calls unless the retest is a collapse.  I don't believe that will be the case.  Perhaps the recent slight move higher has some legs as well.  We are going to have to let the market figure things out.  Many are cautious at the moment and you usually don't get a big decline with that type of environment.  But who knows?  Europe and Asia were both higher in overnight trade.  We'll close out the week with option expiration Friday.

We managed to continue higher today as the Dow rose 40 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trying to turn around here.  Today may have stopped the decline in the summation index.  This is important as it would signify that the broader market is gaining strength.  I'm a believer in this hypothesis and will continue to look at the SPY November calls as the next trade.  The market softened after the release of the Feds beige book but it was not a wholesale decline.  It is option expiration though and things could get tricky in the next 2 days.  The S&P 500 has bounced off of a short term oversold condition.  GE was up a few cents and came off of its highs.  Volume was about average for lately.  Expect movement here on Friday with the earnings release.  Perhaps purchasing both puts and calls at the $29 strike price would be a good idea.  Gold added $7 on the futures as the US dollar finished little changed again.  The XAU rose 2 1/4, while GDX gained 2/3.  Volume picked up.  A nice bounce so far this week for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  2 days doesn't make a trend but I like the fact that the market has held up at this juncture.  Of course it remains to be seen if this is the start of something real of just another fluctuation in the continuing trend channel.  If we can get the summation index turned around, that would be an important clue.  I would like to let this week pass and then attempt to purchase the SPY November calls next week.  That is the ideal scenario for me at the moment.  the market rarely cooperates though.  I am more and more leaning towards a bullish resolution to the ongoing price action though.  I do not see a collapse here as imminent.  I could be wrong.  Asia was mixed, with Europe slightly positive overnight.  We'll keep an eye on aftermarket developments.

We did get a slight bounce today as the Dow rose 75 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still heading lower though.  However the overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The short term technical indicators have turned up from an oversold reading but that doesn't mean that a rally is imminent.  We could simply turn back down again tomorrow.  I would be more convinced of a sustained move higher if we can build on today and get the summation index turned around.  Hasn't happened yet.  I am still looking at the SPY November calls though.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  Gold gained $7 on the futures as the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU added 3 1/8, while GDX gained 7/8.  Volume was OK.  We've held the 200 day moving average on the gold shares for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The economic data today was in line with expectations.  We'll get the Feds beige book tomorrow and that could be a mover.  It would be a positive if we could build on todays gains.  However the volume remains anemic and that is troublesome in either direction.  Plus there's the possibility that we're on hold until the election here is over.  We did get a signal for a bounce and it worked.  But where we go from here is the next question.  I don't have the answers at the moment.  Both Europe and Asia were positive overnight.  We'll keep an eye on things tonight as it appears that INTC disappointed with its earnings in the aftermarket.

Lower to the beginning of option expiration week as the Dow fell 52 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues lower.  No buyers to be found as we drift lower.  Technically we're short term oversold so a case can be made here for a bounce.  I'm not sold on any type of sustainable rally at the moment.  We would have to see the breadth improve and the small stocks take the lead to the upside for a longer term move higher.  However the decline needs to be contained here and now or it has the potential to spiral down much lower than where are now.  So we are at a key point in time in my opinion.  I think that the bounce is possible but beyond that I'm just not sure.  GE lost few cents on average volume.  Earnings due on Friday.  Gold was little changed and the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU added 1 1/4, while GDX rose 1/3.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  A fair amount of economic data still due this week along with the Feds beige book and more earnings reports.  If we don't bounce tomorrow it could be an ugly session.  If we do bounce, the nature and strength of a move higher will tell us a lot about where we are going.  There has been a lot of chatter about being on hold until after the US presidential election.  That could happen as well, which would simply keep us moving sideways in a channel.  That has been the case for quite a while.  But I think tomorrow is important, given where we are at on the charts.  I'm thinking that we will bounce but I could be wrong.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  Stay tuned.

We started out with a jump to the upside and the Dow was up over 150 points.  However we spent the rest of the day drifting lower and the Dow finished with a gain of 39 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index is still heading lower.  The economic data came in as expected.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The small stocks continue to under perform.  The short term technical indicators remain oversold for the major indices.  Option expiration week is coming up.  GE was up 1/8 and the volume remains light.  Earnings due here in a week.  Gold was off $5 on the futures as the US dollar snapped back to the upside.  The XAU lost 1 1/2, while GDX shed 1/2.  Volume was light.  The strong dollar will remain a headwind for the gold complex.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Still watching the 2120 level on the S&P 500 as key support but I do think that 2100 is more important.  I could also make the case for some kind of bounce in the next couple of days as well.  However with the summation index heading lower and the small caps not showing any strength, the case for lower prices seems to be the better choice for now.  I'd still like to get some SPY November calls at some point in the next couple of weeks.  The market has been sideways for 3 months.  The breakout will be worth trading either way.  I'm still a believer in new all time highs before the end of the year.  But I'll try and listen to what the market is saying.  This weeks price action was not positive.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual.  I am feeling better but not all the way back yet.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The market sold off hard early and then spent the rest of the day making a comeback.  We didn't quite make it all the way back as the Dow fell 45 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The small stocks are still under performing.  Oversold on the short term technicals for the major indices but there is still a little bit of room to move lower.  The 2120 level in the S&P 500 is said to be an important point to hold.  I think the 2100 level is the number but that's just my interpretation of things at the moment.  The daily candlestick pattern on the S&P today has the potential to be a hammer depending on the market action going forward.  GE fell 1/8 and the volume was light.  Gold rose $5 on the futures as the US dollar was lower for a change.  The XAU and GDX had small fractional gains on average volume.  Trying to hold at the 200 day moving average for the gold share indices.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It appeared that we were going to fall off a cliff early this morning but buyers showed up and stemmed the decline.  However with the summation index still heading down, the path of least resistance is lower.  The VIX had another jump up and the technical indicators here are overbought.  I think that we are at a spot where maybe the selling is getting exhausted in the near term.  I could be wrong.  I'm not sure how the market will react to the economic data tomorrow but that would be the case at any time.  I'd like to see us get down to the 2100 level on the S&P 500.  That would be my entry point for the SPY November calls.  Could all just be wishful thinking on my part.  Europe and Asia were generally lower as the data from China last night was weaker than expected.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

A day of running in place as the Dow gained 15 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is still heading lower.  The small stocks showed relative weakness and that is not a positive.  However the technical indicators on the VIX are pretty much overbought and that could spell some near term relief.  We didn't have any downside follow through to yesterdays decline and that is a plus as well.  But the market will go where it wants.  The Fed minutes today were basically a non-event.  GE was off a couple cents and the volume was light.  Gold was flat on the session as the US dollar continues to rise.  Overbought and staying that was for the dollar.  The XAU rose 1 3/4 and GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK but physically feeling tired.  Running out of time in the October option cycle.  Friday could get volatile, with retail sales plus inflation data.  More oversold than overbought for the major big cap averages.  Earnings just beginning here as well.  It never gets easy.  I'll try and be patient for a good signal.  I'm still considering the SPY November calls at the moment.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Selling all around today as the Dow fell 200 points on light to average volume.  The advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading down.  I thought that perhaps it was going to make an attempt to turn around here.  Obviously wrong after todays market action.  No real reasons given for todays decline.  The short term technical indicators are trying to roll over here for the major averages.  Even the small caps took a beating today.  We'll have to see if this is the start of some type of bigger decline.  I'm not exactly sure at the moment.  GE was up a few cents on average volume.  The damage has already been done here.  Gold was off $6 on the futures as the US dollar continues to rise.  The XAU shed 1 3/4, while GDX lost over 1/2.  Volume was average.  As long as the dollar continues to rally, gold will not be bought.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Yesterdays gain was on light volume which most likely was the result of Columbus Day.  But as usual, light volume rallies are unreliable.  Depending on how this week concludes, we are breaking some up trend lines on the major indexes that began with the lows of February.  But the week isn't over yet and we could potentially rally back in the next 3 days.  The VIX rose today as well but isn't overbought yet.  The S&P 500 did manage to bounce from its lower Bollinger band on a daily basis today.  Perhaps that will keep things in check going forward.  If we do get to oversold on the short term indicators for the S&P, then I may try the go out to the SPY November calls.  That is the only idea that I have in the works right now.  We really haven't seen any trend in the S&P since mid-July, so it is hard on whether to say that this is actually the start of one.  Time will tell on that.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower last night.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The Dow rose 88 points today on light volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index will still be heading lower but perhaps it is trying to turn around here.  It was a partial holiday in the US with Columbus day.  Not all of the players were at their desks.  The market is still trying to make up its mind on which way to go here.  Earnings begin again this week.  No clear signal yet, so I'll remain on the sidelines for now.  GE was off almost 1/4 on average volume.  One of the problems that I have here for a rally is the continued under performance of a bellwether such as GE.  It broke to another new low since mid July today.  Gold rose $9 on the futures and the US dollar was higher today as well.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on very light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  9 days left in the October option cycle.  It doesn't appear that I'll be making a trade unless things line up technically for the S&P 500.  The indicators that I follow continue to hover mid-range for the short term.  I will say that the continued strength in the small caps does bode well for the overall market going forward.  However the timing of my next trade is always in question and I just don't have the answer right now.  I'm still recovering from my recent bout with ill health but am feeling better at least.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  We'll look for some follow through upside in the markets tomorrow.

The employment report came and went and we are still in a sideways pattern of indecision.  The Dow fell 28 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  We did come off of the lows for the session.  The summation index is still moving down.  There's still no resolution to which way we're going to break out here.  A lot of the short term technical indicators for the major indices remain mid-range.  We did have a British pound flash crash overnight and the market shrugged that off.  I'm still a believer in higher prices eventually but the timing is far from certain.  GE fell about 20 cents on better volume.  This issue has been lower since mid July and is not offering any overall support to the market at this time.  Gold was up $5 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on average volume.  The jobs report was slightly less than anticipated but offered nothing in the way of moving gold much higher.  Mentally I'm doing OK.  We waited for the employment report but we still have no clarity in the stock market.  I'm not sure what the issue is.  I don't think it's the upcoming presidential election in the US.  The next interest rate move won't be until December, if at all.  Perhaps it's the fear of some kind of October collapse but these things never happen when everyone is looking for one.  So I'll simply continue to wait it out.  When we get oversold, I'll look to the SPY calls.  If we move up to get to be overbought, I'll look to the SPY puts.  At this point going out to November seems to have to the prudent choice.  The market will move at its own pace.  There will be some economic data due next week but not a lot.  Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend but the plan of waiting for a decent signal should remain intact.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A one day reversal to the upside for the S&P 500 as we opened lower and closed higher.  The Dow  ended the day down 12 points however.  The advance/declines were slightly negative and the volume was light.  The summation index is still heading lower.  Early weakness today was bought and then we moved sideways for the rest of the session.  Simply waiting for the market reaction to tomorrows employment report.  There is nothing to read into todays market action.  Tomorrow will be the key.  GE was off 1/4, volume was nothing special.  Gold dropped another dozen as the US dollar continues to rise.  Foreshadowing a decent jobs report tomorrow?  Who knows?  The XAU shed another 2 1/2, while GDX lost 3/4.  Volume was good.  Quite a negative week so far for gold and the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The price action today for the major indices implies higher prices tomorrow.  But it isn't 100% accurate, as nothing is in this game.  I do think that tomorrow will set the tone for which direction we're going to go here.  You can make the case either way, which is why it is probably best to simply wait it out and see where we go.  As always, the markets reaction to the numbers and not the numbers themselves will tell the story.  We've basically waited all week for this and hopefully it doesn't disappoint.  Asia was higher and Europe slightly lower last night.  All eyes on the jobs report and we'll close out the week tomorrow.

Back to the upside as we are in a holding pattern until Friday.  The Dow rose 112 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still moving lower.  Still just waiting on a break out higher or lower for the S&P.  The catalyst could be the employment report on Friday.  Plenty of time left in the October option cycle.  I'd expect tomorrow to be a wait and see affair.  GE was flat and the volume was average.  Gold and the US dollar both finished the session little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on good volume.  No real downside follow through to yesterdays gold debacle.  However the damage was so severe that perhaps we're temporarily sold out there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK but still tired and still not up to par.  The technical indicators for the major averages remain mid-range with the exception of the TRAN, which are overbought.  Perhaps the TRAN is leading the way here but time will tell on that.  So far, the recent rally in the TRAN hasn't led the INDU higher.  However we all know that the market goes where it wants.  The relative out performance of the small stocks is another positive that has yet to manifest itself.  I'll remain on the sidelines for now.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight.  We'll continue to watch the overnight action.

Lower again today as the Dow fell 85 points on what passes for average volume these days.  The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 negative.  This should get the summation index heading lower.  Just waiting for Friday in my opinion here.  Plenty of time in the October option cycle to make a trade if you're so inclined.  I'm on the sidelines until a decent signal occurs.  GE was off 1/8 and volume picked up to the downside.  The big news was with gold today as it got clobbered.  The precious metal futures dropped 40 bucks as we sliced through the $1300 level.  The US dollar was higher but not by enough to justify a $40 drop in gold.  Not sure what is going on here.  The XAU lost 8 2/3, while GDX fell 2 1/2.  Volume was off the charts heavy on the selling.  It appears that everyone headed for the exits at the same time.  The usual positive seasonal bias for gold did not show up this year.  Mentally I'm doing OK.  Feeling tired but that is to be expected as I recuperate.  The market is trying to figure out which way to go here.  The small stocks are acting relatively better so a bullish outcome is probably to be expected eventually.  They continue to trade above their 50 day moving averages, while the big cap indices are below the 50 day.  Just an observation there, may not mean anything.  Asia was slightly higher overnight, with Europe having a better upside performance.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We begin the week and the month with a loss, as the Dow fell 54 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is trending sideways.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are either mid-range or overbought.  No trades in mind at the moment.  Fridays jobs report will be the headline for the week.  GE was up a couple cents and the volume was pretty light.  Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU dropped almost 2 points, while GDX shed 1/2.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm doing so-so, physically I've still got a ways to go.  I'm not completely back to normal so the trading will have to wait.  I don't see a solid signal here for the SPY one way or the other.  I do think that we will get to new all time highs for the S&P 500 before the end of the year.  But the timing is the question.  Perhaps the market will simply be on hold until Friday.  That's just a guess and guesses are not what we base our trades on.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on what happens tonight.

The blog will return.  I was taken by ambulance to the emergency room on the night of the 12th.  I was released from the hospital on the 20th.   I'm home now but the recovery will take some time.  We all know that the market doesn't care.  As always, stick with the technical indicators as best you can.  When I get my wits about me, the blog will be back to normal.  We live in the unpredictable trading world but there is one thing you can be sure of.  Be ever so thankful for your family and friends because they will be worth more than any amount of money that you'll make playing this game.

The Dow roared back today with a one day reversal to the upside.  It gained 239 points on better than lately volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still heading lower.  GE was up 3/8 on good volume.  Gold was up $7 on the futures and the US dollar was lower.  The XAU rose 3 1/3, while GDX added 2/3.  Volume was good.  My apologies for the short blog with my usual comments but I am ill today.  I can say that volatility is back and I think we will have to bounce around before we move to new all time highs.  I am looking at the October SPY calls.  But I am very under the weather and would not put much stock in what I'm thinking under these physical conditions.  Hopefully I'll be back to normal tomorrow.

We finally got the break out of the months long congestion zone but it wasn't to the upside as I expected.  The Dow got clobbered today and fell 394 points on what passes for better than average volume these days.  The buyers disappeared.  The advance/declines were 17 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading back down.  The market recently tried to get through the zero line on the McClellan oscillator and it did but barely.  It has now quickly reversed course.  We're also short term oversold in a hurry.  It looks like the possible negative RSI divergences in the small caps are now valid.  We are also practically right back at the uptrend line in the S&P 500 that began in February.  The breakout in the S&P was the 2100 level and I did expect that level to hold.  But after the carnage today, I'm going to have to rethink that idea.  GE fell 7/8 on good volume.  It looks like GE was an early leader all the way along.  We're back to the 200 day moving average here.  Gold fell $9 on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU shed 5 3/4, while GDX lost 1 1/2.  Volume was heavy.  The positive seasonal factor for gold is not happening this year so far.  However the negative seasonal factor for stocks seems to be now in effect.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The talk today was about the Fed but the Fed has been talked about for weeks.  There may be some trouble in the bond market that we're not aware of but something the market may already know.  It will all be figured out eventually.  The fact that we have already almost reached the near term support for the S&P, probably doesn't bode well.  The weekly charts here have just rolled over on the technical indicators.  I had thought that the double support from the breakout point and the uptrend line from February would contain things if we broke down in the S&P.  I will have to rethink that theory.  I had planned on getting some SPY October calls if we reached 2100 on the S&P.  After today that idea doesn't look so good.  I'm not exactly sure what is going on here but there is a chance that this could be a one day wonder as well.  There are numerous questions at the moment without answers.  Obviously the volatility that had been missing for the past couple of months has returned.  Option premiums will be higher but the potential for profits will return as well.  There will be plenty of work to do over the weekend.  Only a week to go in the September option cycle.  I don't think that I'll be attempting a trade there next week but who knows?  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.   

Muddling through another day as the Dow fell 46 points on better volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still trying to turn back up.  Directionless is probably the best way to describe the past couple of months.  It appears that the market needs some kind of stimulus to get things moving one way or another.  Only 6 days to go in the September option cycle.  No good trading signal that I can see as of now.  GE was off a couple cents on average volume.  Gold fell $7 on the futures and the US dollar had a slight gain.  The XAU lost 1 3/4, while GDX shed 2/3.  Volume was good.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I still feel that we are going to move higher here but at this rate anything could happen.  I do notice some potential negative RSI divergences on some of the small cap indices.  But they are only potential unless we break down from here.  Something will eventually get things going here but until then, it's more of the same.  It has been one of the least volatile times for the market in quite some time.  It makes for tough trading.  I'm on the sidelines still for now.  Asia was higher overnight with Europe mixed.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Another attempt at a sell off but the market keeps coming back.  The Dow did fall 12 points on light volume but it was off more for much of the day.  The advance/declines were positive and the NASDAQ was higher.  The summation index is turning back up.  It is a market that seems to want to go higher.  So the grind upward is probably going to continue.  However with the lack of volatility, it makes the trading tough.  There simply isn't enough price movement to get the option premiums moving a lot.  I'll continue to wait for a decent signal.  Hopefully sometime soon.  GE was flat on lighter volume and came off of its lows as well.  Gold was down around $5 on the futures as the US dollar was up slightly.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  The same coming off of the lows pattern prevailed here as well.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market is attempting to break out above the months long consolidation but we'll need to see some volume for it to be real.  The TRAN had a good session today and perhaps that will lead things higher.  We are up at near term resistance there.  More short term overbought than oversold for the major stock indices.  It doesn't look like I'll be attempting a trade in the September option cycle at this rate.  You can't try and press things sometimes in the game because it usually leads to trouble.  I will do my best to remain patient and wait for what I deem a decent signal.  It isn't easy.  Europe was higher and Asia generally lower overnight.  Not much important economic data before we finish the week and it looks like the trading for me will be in a holding pattern.  We'll keep an eye on things overnight as usual.  

The grind higher continues as the Dow rose 46 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is trying to turn around here.  If successful, we'll be moving to new all time highs again and perhaps the 2200 level on the S&P 500.  No good technical signal to trade here but I do think that the path of least resistance is higher.  It appears that weaker economic data will be interpreted as positive by the stock market for now.  Eventually if the data continues to be light, that relationship will change.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume was good.  GE is well off of its recent highs and not a good clue as to what the overall market is doing.  Gold rallies on the drop in the dollar.  The precious metal futures were up over 20 bucks as the dollar fell a full point.  The XAU gained almost 5, while GDX added 1 1/3.  Volume was good.  ABX was higher as well and it doesn't appear that it will fall back below $17 and give us a shot at a call trade there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  All the players are back at their desks and it did not appear as though there were a lot of sellers.  Only 8 days remain in the September option cycle.  If we get a valid signal, perhaps a short term trade will be in the picture.  Otherwise we'll roll out to October.  Volatility has shrunk again.  That implies higher prices in the near term.  I do not see anything on the horizon to negate that view.  Even though we are in a seasonal weak period for stocks, they don't go lower every year.  perhaps things can hold up into the expiration.  That's a guess as usual.  Asia was higher overnight and Europe generally slightly lower.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

We finally got the employment number today and the Dow rallied 72 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive.  The summation index will be trying to turn around again.  We jumped sharply in the first half hour and were never able to get back to that level.  But with the breadth as good as it was, you cannot argue with the gain.  The overall market continues to be positive and there won't be any sustainable decline as long as that is the case.  The trading trouble here is that with the muted day to day action, it's hard to make any money by speculation.  Writing the options continues to be the most profitable idea for now.  GE was up a few cents and the volume was light.  Gold found a bid on the weaker jobs numbers and the futures rose over $10.  However the US dollar came off of its lows and ended positive for the day as well.  The XAU added 3 1/3, while GDX gained 7/8.  Volume was good.  I'll try the ABX call trade again if we get back below 17.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We got the expected upside today but it certainly wasn't anything robust.  Perhaps all the players haven't returned just yet.  Things should get more back to normal after Labor day.  There's one less day left in the 2 week September option cycle with the holiday.  The risk will be elevated.  October has an extra week on the option cycle, so the premiums will be inflated.  The trading is never easy.  The volume on the rallies has been light and we never like to see that.  The short term technical picture for the S&P is now mixed.  The Bollinger bands have now contracted and we have yet to see a big move.  My guess is that it is still coming.  The small caps continue to act well but they are overbought.  This will not last forever.  We are in a weak seasonal period.  I do not know what the catalyst will be for a break from this trading range but I'm going to try and be ready to take advantage of it.  I'll be going over the charts over the long holiday weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

The market again tried to sell off today but made it all the way back.  The Dow finished with a gain of 18 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were  slightly negative.  The summation index is still trending lower.  You just get the feeling that the S&P will be moving higher tomorrow with the recent price action.  The daily candlestick chart now shows 2 hammers at the lower Bollinger band.  The short term technical indicators are mid-range or a bit lower.  I didn't purchase any SPY calls but I certainly think that is the correct play for tomorrow.  We'll see what happens after the employment numbers are released.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was pretty good.  Not sure what to make of that.  Gold was up 5 bucks on the futures as the US dollar was lower ahead of tomorrow.  The XAU rose 3 1/8, while GDX added 7/8.  Volume was heavy.  I did place an overnight order for some ABX September calls after checking the charts last night.  The double top price objective in ABX had been met and the technicals were blown out to the downside.  My order wasn't filled.  ABX was up about 3/4.  I may revisit this idea if we head back below $17.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It is simply a matter of waiting for the jobs report and the market reaction now.  There really isn't anything else to say.  If there would have been a decent signal here, I would have attempted a trade in the SPY.  But I erred on the side of caution.  I do still expect us to move higher in the near term.  We'll see.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.