Continuing higher as the Dow gained 122 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher as well.  We are going up.  Declines, if there are any, can be bought.  We may just move straight up, which I was afraid of because there won't be an opportunity to purchase the SPY October calls on weakness.  And so it goes.  Overbought and staying there for the major stock indices.  Obviously I should have simply held on to the SPY calls that I had.  But looking backwards does you no good.  GE up another 1/2 and the volume remains heavy.  We should hit new highs for the year on GE if this pace keeps up.  GE is leading the way and that's bullish for now.  Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures as the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU was fractionally higher, with the GDX little changed.  Volume shrunk here.  No trades in the gold shares for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The S&P 500 has made it back to the 50 day moving average.  So have some of the other major stock indexes.  With the overbought conditions, I would at least expect some type of pause here.  But who knows?  We may just keep shooting higher.  Only seven days left in the October option cycle.  There will have to be a pretty good set up to try and attempt a trade now.  I do think that going out to November is an option because this rally is for real in my opinion.  Gold has made it back to resistance at $1150.  We will have to see what happens here.  No overbought for gold, so maybe there is a chance that we'll break through.  We'll watch the overseas markets overnight to see if they follow the Dow higher.

A mixed session today after the nice recent run up in prices as the Dow added 13 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The small stocks and the S&P 500 were lower.  A pause here would not be out of the ordinary.  Short term overbought for the major stock indices.  I will be looking at the SPY October calls again on more weakness.  However the ideal scenario would be to purchase the at the beginning of next week.  We'll see.  GE was up another 1/2 and the volume was very heavy.  GE is poised to attack its high for the year at the $28 level.  If we get through there, $30 is on the table.  Probably too late for the November calls.  Gold found buyers again as it rallied about $10 on the futures.  The US dollar was lower today.  The XAU rose 2 1/8, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume remains good here.  Perhaps a bottom is in place for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Patience is required now before the next SPY trade.  I'm also considering going out to the November options here as well.  The summation index has turned around and that is a major positive.  If we get through the 500 level there, I think that the all clear sign will be given.  The double bottom in place on the daily charts for the major stock indexes appears to be valid.  Only a break below the lows would negate that.  I don't think that will happen.  Silver has made it back to its 200 day moving average.  Can gold get there?  Gold needs to break through the resistance at the $1150 level to turn positive in my opinion.  We are knocking on the door there.  Silver and the gold shares leading is bullish.  So we'll see.  We'll keep an eye out on the overnight action and see what tomorrow brings.

The market took off to the upside today as the Dow gained 304 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were over 7 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  A double bottom is in place for all the major stock indices.  Declines can be bought in my opinion.  The S&P 500 has broken through the downtrend line that began in August.  That doesn't mean that we will move straight up but it does mean that the tide has turned.  Short term overbought now for the stock indices but we could stay that way.  I would expect some weakness at some point this week but I think that buyers will be waiting.  That's a guess as usual.  I sold my SPY October calls this morning for a 65% gain.  Should have held them longer.  GE led the way higher as there was positive news on the stock.  It gained 1 1/3 on extremely heavy volume.  GE was a precursor for the overall market this time around.  The time for the November calls has passed and I missed it.  Perhaps if it gets oversold before the November expiration the calls can be purchased.  Gold was off just a bit on the futures as the US dollar was slightly higher on the session.  The gold shares were higher though, as the XAU rose 2 1/3 and GDX was up 2/3.  Volume was good again here.  The gold shares are showing better relative strength here and that's a positive.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Out of the SPY trade now.  Both the entry and exit were not good on that trade.  I really should have realized that today was going to be strong, given the change of direction in the summation index.  But you have to move on.  I may try the calls here again before expiration if we get some weakness into early next week.  The next technical expectation from here for the S&P 500 would be some type of move back towards the downtrend line that was just broken.  If that does occur, then trying to calls during expiration week may be worth the risk.  As usual, the market will go where it wants.  Barring some unforeseen catastrophe though, we're heading higher.  Gold remains in the background and uninteresting.  I think that the gold shares simply followed the overall market higher.  Time will tell if it's a sustained uptrend or not.  It is possible that a bottom is in place here though.  We'll see if the foreign markets follow the Dow higher overnight.

Today was a one day reversal to the upside as the Dow opened 250 points lower only to turn around and finish the day up 200.  Quite a ride.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive and the volume was heavy.  Today should turn the summation index back up.  The employment report was weak, which was met with selling.  But things turned around and we closed on the high of the session.  That's bullish.  I'll go out on a limb and declare this decline over.  A double bottom is in place and declines can be bought.  The potential positive RSI divergence has panned out to be valid.  Now of course things can change on a dime in this game but the odds are we've seen the lows for this move.  My October SPY calls are now in the black.  GE turned around as well and gained 1/4 on good volume.  It appears that it is going to be too late to try the November calls there unless I move to a higher strike price.  Not sure that I want to do that.  Gold rallied on the weaker data as the futures here rose over twenty bucks.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU gained 3 7/8, while GDX rose over a point.  Volume was heavy.  Perhaps we'll see more upside for gold but there hasn't been a sustained rally here for months.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Getting short term overbought already on some daily indicators for the major stock indices.  Upside on Monday would take us there.  The S&P 500 is just getting through the daily chart downtrend line that began in August.  Although I would like to hold the SPY October calls that I have for a longer time, getting out on any strength Monday might be the prudent path.  I've held onto this trade longer than anticipated already.  But I am pretty sure the stock indexes are going only higher from here.  The weekly candlestick charts look bullish now as well, with plenty of room to the upside for the technical indicators.  Today was a pretty good short squeeze on the bears.  So there will be plenty to think about over the weekend.  Gold had a nice move higher but we haven't seen any rally hold up here for a while.  Until we get through the $1150 level on good volume, the yellow metal appears to be stuck in a trading range.  I'll be checking the charts out over the weekend to come up with some sort of game plan for next week.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A mixed picture today as the Dow fell 12 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were barely negative.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  We did come off of lower levels during the day and that's a positive.  The summation index is still heading lower but not as strongly as before.  The positive divergences that we saw earlier in the week may be valid.  It will all depend on the market reaction to the employment report tomorrow.  I still have the SPY October calls and they are still showing a loss.  GE was off a few cents on good volume.  We came back from lower levels here as well.  Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures and the US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU was off a point and GDX lost 1/3.  Volume was average.  No interest in gold and that has been the story there for a while.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  There are potential double bottoms on the daily charts for the major stock indices.  If we are up tomorrow that would strengthen the double bottom scenario.  I certainly don't know which way we will go.  If we do move higher, resistance for the S&P 500 remains at the 1945 level.  That is where the downtrend line is from the end of August.  If we do get there, I should probably dump the SPY October calls for whatever they're worth.  I do not expect to get through that line on the first attempt.  Of course we could just roll over tomorrow and make new lows as well.  So tomorrow is another important day for the stock market.  I am however, encouraged by todays price action.  So we'll see.  The foreign markets were mixed last night.  We'll await Fridays jobs report and close out the week tomorrow.

The bounce appeared on schedule as the Dow rose 235 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still heading lower.  There is a potential bullish candlestick pattern on the daily S&P 500 chart.  We have reached the short term downtrend line for the S&P 500.  I'd expect things to stall tomorrow ahead of the jobs report on Friday.  I didn't sell my SPY October calls.  I suppose that I'll wait for Friday and see what that brings.  If the potential bullish RSI divergences are real, then this trade has a chance to actually turn a profit.  It is still showing a loss.  GE was up 2/3 and the volume was good.  Hopefully GE is leading the way here.  Might be too late for the November calls though.  Gold fell another $7 today as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX were both higher today.  That's the first time in a while that we have seen the gold shares out perform the metal itself.  But that doesn't mean that it will continue.  Volume was average there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So can the market move higher more than 2 days in a row?  That hasn't happened in over a month.  Like I said before, tomorrow should be a wait and see session.  With the summation index still moving down, caution is probably the best advice.  The potential for a bottom to be in place is there but it is potential and not fact.  If we can get through the short term downtrend line for the S&P, the next resistance is at 1945.  But things could head back down tomorrow and negate any positive action that we've seen.  That is the environment that we are in.  The trend is still down until proven otherwise.  I'm still holding the SPY October calls but I am trying not to let that affect my view of the market.  Not an easy thing for me to do.  We'll begin the 4th quarter and the month of October tomorrow.  The foreign markets were positive yesterday and we'll see if we get any upside follow through tonight.

Let me just say that the market is in dire straits here and has to hold on or it will fall apart.  The Dow came back in the last half hour and finished with a gain of 47 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative though and the small stocks continue lower.  The summation index is dropping as well.  We are short term oversold and the technical indicators pretty much guarantee a big up day tomorrow.  But there are no guarantees in this business.  I do think that we will see a triple digit move higher tomorrow.  After that, who knows?  The breakdown in the RUT is a very negative sign.  I should probably dump my SPY October calls tomorrow if we bounce and take the loss.  GE was up 1/4 on good volume.  Perhaps GE will once again be a precursor for the overall market.  Gold was off $5 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit lower as well.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on very light volume.  Still no interest in the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock market has a decidedly bearish tone to it and just about anything can happen in the coming days.  The big cap averages are trying to hold the most recent lows but with the breakdown in the small stocks, it appears that lower prices overall are just a matter of time.  To me, tomorrow will be one of the most important sessions we've had in some time.  It is the end of the month, so some selling is to be expected.  But if we don't have the strong up session that I am anticipating, then watch out below.  There is a potential positive divergence in the RSI with regards to the daily charts of the major stock indices.  However is has yet to be seen if it is valid.  That is about the only hope for the bulls here.  My SPY October call trade will most likely be a loser.  So hold onto your seats as tomorrow will be an interesting day.  We'll watch the foreign markets tonight and go from there. 

The market got clobbered today for no apparent reason.  The Dow lost 312 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 8 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  The small stocks are leading the rout.  Once again there is something going on underneath the scenes that I have no knowledge of.  How low we go is again something that I do not know.  My work says that there will be a decent rise tomorrow or Wednesday.  But from what level?  Oversold and staying there for the major stock indices.  My SPY October calls are now solidly in the red.  This is now a cut the loss trade.  The gain that I had here on Friday evaporated rather quickly.  Even with plenty of time for these options, I think getting out sooner rather than later is a good idea.  GE was off almost 2/3 on good volume.  It looks like I'll get a chance to purchase some November calls here.  But now do I want them?  Gold fell about $12 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit lower as well.  No flight to safety for gold.  Nothing seems to be able to rally the precious metals.  Perhaps todays market action was another margin call around the world.  That's a guess as usual.  The XAU fell 2 2/3, while GDX dropped 2/3.  Volume was good.  No trades here for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Confused as to what's going on here.  The RUT has now made lower lows and it appears that things could completely fall apart here.  The summation index has turned around and did not make it though the zero line when it was heading up.  The poor seasonal time frame doesn't help things either.  I do see some type of bounce higher in the next 2 days.  If that were not to happen, things would really turn ugly.  There is something happening out there that reminds me of the trouble back in 2008.  Perhaps we'll find out in the days to come just what kind of bad news surprise is out there.  Until then we have to stick with the technical indicators and they say that we are oversold.  The problem is when there is some unknown factor out there driving things, the technical don't matter.  We'll have to see how the foreign markets hold up overnight and brace for whatever happens tomorrow.

A mixed session to be sure as the Dow gained 113 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The overall market was weaker, with the small stocks leading the way down.  That is not a good sign.  At one point the Dow was up 250 points but could not hold the gains.  Volatility returned and not in a good way for the bulls.  My SPY October calls had a 50% gain at one point but now are simply slightly higher.  It didn't look like a good rally with the NASDAQ under performing in the morning.  Perhaps I just wasn't nimble enough.  If we can get through Monday, I think we'll see some upside after that for a couple of days.  GE was flat on the session and the volume was good.  I still like the November calls here.  Gold shed $8 on the futures as the US dollar had a slight loss as well.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  No trades here for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Yellens speech didn't yield much in the way of market moving content.  I'm sticking with the technicals as usual.  The summation index has rolled over again.  That is not a positive for calls.  The small stocks got clocked today and that isn't bullish either.  We are short term oversold for the major stock indices, which is one thing in the bulls camp.  But in down markets we can stay oversold.  Plus the negative seasonal factor for stocks is still in place.  I should probably be out of this SPY October call trade by Wednesday.  However it is Monday that will probably present a problem if we really start to head lower.  Plenty of nervousness out there for whatever reason.  I think that the most that I can hope for now is a short covering rally.  And good luck with that.  What looked like a bullish candlestick yesterday on the S&P 500 daily chart hasn't been negated yet.  But we'll need to see some sustained upside in a hurry for that to work out.  So there's plenty to think about when checking the charts out over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Another down session as the Dow fell 78 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  We did make somewhat of a comeback because early on the market was off over 200 points.  Short term oversold for the major stock indices but in a down market we can stay that way.  I did purchase some SPY October calls in the early morning but could have gotten a better entry if I had waited.  They are showing a slight profit at the moment.  Yellens speech is tonight and that should be a market mover.  The daily candlestick chart for the S&P 500 has a bullish look right now.  There is a possible morning star or a hammer after todays price action.  But that could all change with a negative session tomorrow.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume was heavy.  Not such a bullish candlestick chart here.  Gold found some buyers as the futures rose over $20.  The US dollar was lower today but finished well off of its lows.  The gold shares perked up.  The XAU gained 3 1/4, while GDX added almost a point.  Volume was very good.  Not sure what the reason was for the buying.  It will take more than one day though to turn things around here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll get the final GDP revision for the 2nd quarter tomorrow.  I don't think it will be a market mover unless it's a big surprise.  The reaction to what Yellens says or doesn't say tonight should be the main event.  I'm in the next trade with the SPY after the recent ABX debacle.  I should be exiting this trade within a week unless developments prove otherwise.  If the market is up tomorrow, then this trade has the potential to be a winner.  Down and the opposite is true.  As long as the premiums don't erode in a hurry, time will be on my side for a while.  Perhaps gold knows something we don't or maybe today was just a one day wonder.  Time will tell on that.  We'll get the post Yellen press conference wrap up and see how the overseas markets react to that.

Waiting on Janet Yellens speech tomorrow as the Dow fell 50 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is now moving sideways.  Short term oversold for the major stock indices.  I did place an order for the SPY October calls but it wasn't filled.  I may try this idea again if we see some weakness early tomorrow.  A lot of bearishness out there.  If I do make this trade it will have to be short term.  We're still in the negative seasonal time for stocks.  GE was up 3 cents on good volume.  No rush to get the calls here but if the market does start to rise here it will be too late for the November calls..  Gold was up $5 on the futures today as the US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  The gold shares haven't followed gold for a while now.  They've also shown relative weakness whenever they get the chance.  I don't know what would turn things around here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm considering the SPY October calls here.  This isn't the strongest signal that I've seen but it may be worth a shot.  So we'll see.  We've got some economic data due tomorrow but Yellens speech should be the main market mover.  I'll consider this trade again tonight and figure out what to do in the morning.  We'll see how the foreign markets do overnight. 

To the downside as the Dow fell 179 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative.  No real news to speak of and we did come off of the lows for the session.  I could make a case for buying weakness tomorrow as we are going to be short term oversold.  However the option premiums are still high and I am probably not nimble enough at the moment to make this trade work.  But who knows?  GE was actually up a couple cents on good volume.  GE opened lower and came all the way back.  The action in GE leads me to believe that the stock market isn't in trouble here.  I also still like the November calls here if we ever get to oversold.  Gold was off $8 on the futures as the rally in the US dollar continues.  The XAU fell 2 1/4 and GDX shed 2/3.  Volume was good to the downside and is another negative here.  No trade in mind at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The question for now seems to be if we are going to retest the lows set in August.  It is a valid question.  The summation index is still heading higher for now.  If that were to turn around we would probably see a lot more weakness in the stock indices.  But it hasn't happened yet.  Another area to keep an eye on is the 500 level in the summation index.  If we turn back down there, things could get ugly again.  However the reverse is also true.  If we make it through there you can look for much higher prices in the weeks to come.  So we are in an indecision pattern right now really.  Gold remains uninteresting and in the background.  The continued weakness in the gold shares is not a positive sign.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and see what tomorrow brings. 

We begin the week with the Dow gaining 125 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is heading higher.  On the plus side we did not get any downside follow through to Friday.  On the minus side the small stocks were relatively weaker.  The short term indicators are neither overbought or oversold.  I will try and wait for some type of signal before attempting the next SPY trade.  The option premiums are still rather high as we have just shifted into the October cycle and the volatility is still above average.  GE was up 1/4 on lighter volume.  GE has acted well here and I will be looking at the November calls if we get oversold.  Gold was off $5 on the futures as the US dollar had a strong session.  The XAU lost 1 1/4, while GDX fell 1/2.  Volume was average.  Coming off of short term overbought for the gold shares.  No trades in mind there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  With the losing ABX trade in the books, it's time to move on.  We are still in a weak seasonal time frame for stocks.  However the seasonal strength certainly did not work for the gold shares.  A case can be made that we are talking about two completely different markets.  That said, I think the prudent course of action here is to be patient and wait for the next signal for the SPY.  It may take a few days.  However with the summation index moving up, the bias should be to the upside and purchasing calls.  So we'll see and we'll trade it either way depending on the technicals.  The Japanese market will be closed again tonight but we'll keep an eye on the rest.

Plenty of selling today as the Dow lost 290 points on extremely heavy expiration volume.  The advance/declines were a little over 2 to 1 negative.  That tells a story that the decline was not as bad as it seemed.  The breadth wasn't as horrible as it should have been for a market close to 300 points down.  The summation index continues higher.  The latter half of September is notoriously weak and we should see that come into play this time around.  But my thinking is that this will set us up for getting some calls.  I could be wrong.  GE fell over 1/2 on very heavy volume.  We'll let the short term overbought condition work itself off and than take a look at the November calls there.  Gold was up $8 on the futures despite a rise in the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on lighter volume.  The usually seasonal strong period of August/September for gold and the gold shares has been a sideways affair this year.  I finished off closing out the ABX October call trade by dumping my remaining options for a 95% loss.  That ranks up there as the worst trade of the year.  Way too much money on one idea and I compounded the mistake by purchasing more options at a lower strike price because I was so sure that idea would work.  What happened was ABX got very oversold and stayed there.  That doesn't take away from the fact that my tactics were flawed.  The market, whichever one you're in, goes where it wants.  Hopefully with that trade out of the way now, I can focus on the next profitable idea.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The daily candlestick charts of the major averages now have a bearish pattern as opposed to just a single dark star.  It implies lower prices moving forward.  Will we test the recent lows now?  I did not think so before but we will have to wait and see.  There is a good chance that today was simply an expiration related decline.  Mondays price action will be important.  It looks like that buying the SPY puts after the announcement yesterday would have worked.  However the market was moving very fast and the short term nature of that trade kept me on the sidelines.  Gold found buyers this week but we have not seen a sustained rally there for months.  So it would be hard to say that this is the beginning of something long lasting there.  I'll be checking the charts out over the weekend to try and come up with some ideas for the October option cycle.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

A mixed bag on the Fed as the Dow lost 65 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  Rates were left unchanged and the market briefly dipped but then rallied up over 150 points only to give it all back and then some.  It wasn't exactly a sell the news event that I had thought it would be, but we got there just the same.  However it wasn't a nasty decline.  We are still short term overbought on the major stock indices.  On the plus side the small stocks were higher.  So with the Fed out of the way, where do we go from here?  The decline certainly appears to be over and there doesn't seem to be a retest of the lows in the cards.  Todays candlestick charts for the stock indexes have a bearish star candle on them, so we will have to see how tomorrow shapes up.  GE was off 1/3 and the volume was heavy.  Same candlestick chart pattern here.  Gold surged after the Fed.  The futures rose $12 as the US dollar got clobbered.  The XAU rose 1 1/8, while GDX added 1/3.  Volume was good here again.  Not a huge move in the gold shares considering the news.  I did finally sell some of my ABX October call position for a 95% loss.  Terrible trade management there.  It was also my first negative result in months.  A step backwards to be sure.  I'll sell the remaining position in the coming days when ABX gets overbought.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've got option expiration tomorrow and then we'll roll into the October cycle.  We are in a negative seasonal period for stocks. But with the summation index moving higher now with conviction, I think it's safe to say the trend is up.  That doesn't mean that I won't try the SPY puts if we get to resistance.  It does mean that put trades must be short in duration.  But let's get through tomorrow first.  With no action from the Fed we will still be held hostage before each meeting until they actually do something.  Such is the game we play but it must be taken into consideration.  We'll see if gold can continue to rally overnight.  Plus we'll get the worldwide reaction to todays event.  Then close out the trading week tomorrow.

Continuing higher before the Fed as the Dow rose 140 points on above average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is now moving strongly higher.  It does appear that the lows are in and this was simply a correction in a long bull market.  At least that is what it looks like today.  I did place an order for the SPY September puts but it wasn't filled and I canceled it.  Short term overbought for the major stock indices.  My thinking is that tomorrow will be a sell the news event but that's just a guess.  The option premiums are still sky high but you can watch them get sucked out tomorrow after the Fed.  It will be interesting to see.  GE is a precursor after all as it gained almost 2/3 on very heavy volume.  It has broken above the 50 and 200 day moving averages today.  This is bullish.  Any decline here can be bought and I still may attempt the November calls here.  Gold even found some buyers today as the futures gained $15.  The US dollar was weaker today.  The XAU rose 3 points, while GDX was up 3/4.  Volume was heavy for the gold shares.  Is that telling us that there will be no change in Fed policy?  Or was it just short covering ahead of the Fed?  Always plenty of questions in the game.  My ABX October calls are still dead.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I probably will not attempt any SPY trade tomorrow.  Unless something really stands out after the Fed announcement, I'll be safe on the sidelines.  It really isn't my strength to attempt the short term trades.  But you never know.  It looks like the major stock indexes will be heading back to the resistance zone.  When we get there, that would be the area to perhaps try the SPY October puts.  Let me say that we are still quite a long way from that resistance area.  Gold finally had a bounce but we all know that one day does not make a trend.  So tomorrow we will finally get the Fed out of the way.  As usual it isn't the announcement that matters, it's how the market reacts to it.  My gut says that it will be a sell the news scenario.  But I could be wrong.  The technicals are overbought but they could stay that way.  It seems like too much of a coin toss and we do not want to trade on that.  We'll see if the overseas markets follow the US higher and await the Fed tomorrow.

In rally mode today as the Dow gained 228 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  Not sure where this came from today but sometimes in down markets rallies appear from nowhere.  The small stocks continue to lead here and that is a positive.  However we are now short term overbought with the Fed on the horizon.  I'm still leaning towards trying the SPY September puts before the Fed.  But the risk will be high.  Not to mention that the short term trades are usually not my best effort.  GE was up 1/2 on good volume.  If GE is a precursor, then the market will be heading higher.  If that is the case, we can assume that the decline is over.  But that is all conjecture at this point.  Gold fell about $4 on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX were flat on the day with very light volume.  Still no interest or movement for the precious metals.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Retail sales were practically in line with expectations today.  Perhaps today was simply short covering with maybe more of the same tomorrow.  If we get to 200 on the SPY, I'll probably try the puts on a very short term basis.  But the premiums remain elevated and they will rapidly decline once the Fed announcement is out of the way.  So there is also a chance that I'll do nothing.  Which by the way would probably be the most sane course of action.  So we'll see.  The overseas markets were mixed overnight with Europe higher and Asia lower.  I'll keep an eye on the action tonight and then decide what to do tomorrow.   
 

Waiting on the Fed today as the Dow fell 62 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues higher for now but there is no conviction.  4 days to go in the September option cycle and the premiums are still very high.  As soon as the Fed decision is made public, both the puts and the calls will have the premium sucked out of them.  You will have to be on the right side of that trade and even then there are no guarantees.  However it will be a money making opportunity for some.  I'm not sure if I am going to trade it.  GE was off 18 cents on light volume.  Patience here for now.  Gold was up just a bit on the futures.  The US dollar was slightly positive.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll get retail sales tomorrow and that should provide some trading fodder.  I think that if we make it back up to around 200 on the SPY before the announcement, then I might try the puts for a short term trade.  But there certainly is a lot of bearishness to go around at the moment.  Some of the short term technicals here are more overbought than oversold.  With such a short amount of time remaining in this option cycle, perhaps the risk is not worth the reward.  Going out to October could be an option.  Gold is still a non event and uninteresting to most.  My ABX October calls are dead.  That is shaping up to be one of my worst trades of the year.  And we still have over 3 months left in 2015.  We'll see how the foreign markets trade overnight and take it from there.

A one day reversal to the upside as we opened lower and closed higher.  Late buying pushed the Dow up 102 points.  The advance/declines were slightly positive and the volume was light.  The summation index is moving higher but without a lot of conviction.  Not sure what that implies.  Expiration week coming up but all the players are waiting on the Fed.  The market reaction there will be the telling story.  But the announcement is on Thursday, so trading off of that will be extremely risky.  If I feel like there is a signal to trade , I'll give it a shot.  But we have data to get through before that as well.  GE was up 1/4 on OK volume.  GE has held up pretty good here and we are now short term overbought.  Perhaps the November calls on a pullback is the proper choice.  Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures and a bit more in the aftermarket.  This, despite a drop in the US dollar.  Both the XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains coming off of their lows for the session.  Volume remains light as does the interest in gold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX has come back down and I am really asking myself if perhaps the decline is over.  We never did retest the low, so perhaps a V bottom is in place.  The medium term technical indicators for the major averages have turned back up.  The small stock indices never had the bearish 50 day moving average crossover with the 200 day.  The amount of put buying is through the roof.  So there is a lot of evidence that we are probably going to go higher.  But the market does go where it wants.  I think if we continue higher into the Fed meeting I will probably go the other way in an extremely short term trade.  But a lot can happen between now and then.  Gold remains a lost cause along with the gold shares.  I do believe though, if you have a longer term time horizon the gold shares can be bought here.  They are even cheaper than the last time I said that.  And the large cap companies in that industry are not going to zero.  So I will check the charts over the weekend and try and get a feel for what is going on here.  My ideas have been wrong as of late but that will not last forever either.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A day of just hanging around as the Dow gained 76 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  We have built a triangle after the huge decline on the daily S&P 500 chart.  Waiting on the breakout from that.  My story is the same, not a good idea of which way to go here.  Only six days remaining in the September option cycle.  We've got the Fed next week and I suppose if you can figure out what the market will do on that, you'll make some money.  I'll have to wait for a technical signal.  That is the prudent approach for now.  Could change at any time.  GE was up 1/8 and the volume was good.  patience for the November calls here.  Gold was up $7 on the futures as the US dollar fell today.  It didn't help the gold shares as both the XAU and the GDX were barely moved.  Volume was light, continuing the non interest for the precious metals.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Kind of in a funk here with my trading.  No good ideas for now.  I'm not sure if it because of the overall market environment or the fact that I'm holding onto a big losing trade in ABX.  Probably a combination of the two.  I'd like to try a trade with the SPY before expiration but I don't want it to be just a guess.  I'll let tomorrow go by and consider the scenarios over the weekend.  The ABX trade is dead, even with a little over five weeks to go on it.  Another mistake but I'm waiting for some kind of bounce to cut the loss a bit.  May not happen.  The world markets did not have any upside follow through last night.  We'll keep an eye on things overnight and finish up the trading week tomorrow. 

Markets around the world rallied but the US did not follow suit.  The Dow fell 239 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative.  It is a difficult trading environment.  It pays to be nimble and take whatever profits that you can.  You won't get the exact highs or lows.  I don't have a good read on what's happening, so I'm on the sidelines.  Today was a one day reversal to the downside, opening higher and closing lower.  The path of least resistance is now down.  GE was off 3/8 and volume was average.  Getting closer to the 50 day moving average crossover to the 200 day.  If that happens it may be a clue as to the next extended market direction.  Or not.  Gold fell today as the US dollar was higher.  The precious metal futures dropped $15.  The XAU lost 1 1/4, while GDX fell 3/8.  Volume remains light here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Rallies appear out of nowhere in down markets.  That seems to be what we witnessed yesterday.  Now we have rolled over again.  We also saw a compressed 1, 2, 3 move higher from the lows on Friday.  These are characteristics of a bearish phase.  Of course I have been too slow to see this ahead of time.  My take on the market here is a confused one and not a lot of conviction either way.  Hopefully I'll get a handle on things quickly.  My ABX October call trade is dead.  Once again we'll watch the overnight action but I have no real trade ideas at the moment.

A good start to the week for the bulls as the Dow soared 390 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive.  No news to speak of really for the cause of the rise.  The summation index should be moving higher after today.  Perhaps the worst of the decline has passed but one day doesn't make a trend.  I'm still waiting for a clear signal before my next SPY trade.  Patience is still the main idea at this point.  GE was up almost a buck on heavy volume.  I'm still interested in the November calls here but will not chase this stock right now.  The 50 day moving average still has not crossed the 200 day for GE.  Gold was up a couple bucks as the US dollar was lower on the session.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  Still no interest in the gold shares or the precious metals.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We will have to see if we get some upside follow through for the stock indices tomorrow.  It is a light week for economic data.  There is a chance that the worst is over for the decline but we cannot say that for certain just yet.  If we continue higher into the beginning of next week that could set us up for the SPY September puts during expiration week.  We still have a long way to go to get there.  That is the only potential set up that I see at this point.  So we'll wait.  We'll see if the foreign markets follow the US lead overnight and go from there. 

We ended the week on a down note as the Dow fell 272 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  The employment report came in a little light and the selling came in at the open.  The market tried to rally in the final hour but failed.  We now have a long holiday weekend to ponder the situation.  No clear short term signal one way or the other for now.  I still believe that things will hold on here and we will head back up if we retest the recent lows.  But I also haven't been right about much lately.  GE was off 1/2 on average volume.  The short term technical indicators here are more overbought than oversold.  No rush for the November calls.  Gold did not rally despite a weaker jobs number and a decline in the US dollar.  The futures were off a couple bucks or so.  The XAU and GDX had fractional moves on light volume.  The precious metals complex is trending nowhere.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It was another losing week for the Dow, along with the other major stock indices.  Getting oversold on the medium term picture here.  I suppose we will have to see what happens if the S&P 500 gets back to the lows at around the 1880 level.  That would be the area to try the SPY September calls.  If the lows hold, that would be a winning trade.  We haven't gotten there yet but perhaps we will in the shortened week upcoming.  There is no guarantee that the lows will hold though.  Perhaps the sidelines isn't such a bad place to be until I can really get a handle on what's happening.  There isn't a clear signal for a trade yet.  The option premiums are inflated as well with all the recent volatility.  Gold is going nowhere and right now I don't see a catalyst for movement there in either direction.  My ABX October calls are on life support.  Another failed trade on my part, with losses bigger than they should have been.  It doesn't look like the double bottom on the daily chart will pan out.  It will be nice to have an extra day off this weekend as the markets have been more challenging than usual lately.  Nine days remain in the September option cycle.  I'll consider the strategies over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.  

We began the day in rally mode but drifted down from the highs for the rest of the session.  The Dow gained 23 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The NASDAQ was lower though.  So we are getting some mixed signals ahead of tomorrows employment report.  Tomorrow should be interesting and it is on the cusp of a long weekend for the US stock exchanges.  I don't have a good feel as of what to expect.  The short term technical indicators are not signaling one way or the other.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was average. n No rush to trade here.  Gold fell almost $10 on the futures as the US dollar was higher today.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses again on light volume.  Perhaps the jobs report will get gold moving.  My ABX October calls remain mired in the red.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Tough markets to trade here with the volatility and huge single day moves without much follow through.  You really have to be nimble and a very short term trader.  These traits are not my strong suit.  That said, I would still like to try a trade with the SPY options in the September option cycle.  However I will be waiting for some kind of decent signal.  Haven't seen one yet and there is the possibility that none will arrive on cue.  So we will have to simply wait it out for now.  I don't see myself taking any positions before this long holiday weekend but you never know.  Gold remains a wasteland at this point for trading capital.  My only hope for the ABX trade is that a double bottom is being formed right now on the daily charts.  Once again, hope is not a trading strategy.  Perhaps I'll take the loss in the middle of this month if we don't start to move higher here.  All eyes on the market reaction to the employment numbers tomorrow as we close out the week.

And back to the upside today as the roller coaster of volatility remains.  The Dow climbed 293 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were about 3 to 1 positive.  We will ask again if the decline is over but the answer remains the same.  Nobody really knows.  Whipsaw action and that makes for difficult trading.  I'll remain patient here and wait for a decent signal.  That is the game plan.  Neither overbought or oversold right now.  The Fed minutes were a non event.  GE rallied strong today and gained 2/3 on good volume.  No rush for the November calls for now.  Notice though that GE did not have the bearish moving average crossover that the indices did.  Not yet at least.  Gold was off $5 on the futures as the US dollar was higher today.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  Perhaps the employment report will get gold going.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So here we are getting whipped back and forth with multi-hundred point moves in the Dow.  The ideal scenario would be a retest of the lows but it is also possible that we rally from here back to the moving averages.  One of the indicators that I look at is in extremely bullish territory with regards to option sentiment.  Too many puts have been bought.  The market always tried to disappoint the most players.  Or so it seems that way.  I'll wait for either an overbought or oversold signal in the September cycle and trade from there.  There is no shame in waiting on the sidelines for things to calm down.  Gold going nowhere as is ABX.  A slow death from here on out for the ABX October call trade.  China is closed for a couple days so we'll see what the rest of the world does in its absence.

September begins with a thud as the Dow fell 470 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative.  This will probably turn the summation index back down.  This could be the start of a retest of the most recent low set last week.  If we get back down there perhaps we will see a positive divergence in the RSI and the McClellan oscillator.  If so, then the SPY September calls will be in order.  But that is all conjecture here as we don't know where the market will lead us from here.  It is possible that we will just continue lower.  But if the positive divergences show up, you know what to do.  GE was off almost a full point on very heavy volume.  We haven't seen the bearish moving average crossover here yet.  I'm still considering the November calls for GE.  Gold gained $7 on the futures but it was higher during the session.  The US dollar dropped today.  The gold shares continue to under perform as the XAU shed 1 2/3, while GDX lost 3/8.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Volatility looks like it's here to stay for a while.  I do not know the reason.  Obviously there is something beneath the surface going on but not so obvious that I know what it is.  Perhaps playing it cautious is the most prudent course of action here.  The Fed minutes tomorrow should be a market mover with this environment.  If we reach short term oversold, I'll try the SPY September calls.  Not there yet.  I suppose I may as well face the facts.  I'm stuck in a losing ABX October call trade and it may be influencing what I do elsewhere.  The mental capital involved in trading is always more important than the money.  Not that I have a handle on what's happening in the stock market at this time.  But holding onto a losing trade is a drain in itself.  There is a potential double bottom being formed in ABX on the daily charts.  That is about the only sliver of hope left in this trade.  We'll see if todays carnage carries overseas and take it from there.

We start the week and end the month on the downside as the Dow fell 115 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  Most likely digesting the recent gains.  Plenty of market moving data to come this week.  I think that the key will be to have the patience to wait for a decent signal.  Plenty of time in the September option cycle.  The premiums are still high with the recent volatility.  I will wait for a signal on a short term technical basis.  GE was off 1/3 and the volume remains pretty good.  The November calls are what I'm looking at here.  Gold was little changed today and the US dollar was lower.  We may see some movement in gold with the Feds beige book release on Wednesday.  The gold shares were lower, with the XAU and GDX showing slight fractional losses.  My ABX October calls remain mired in the red.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I looked at things over the weekend and decided that medium term you could probably make a case for either direction.  I do think with the summation index turning around that the surprises will be to the upside and not another collapse scenario.  But I could be wrong.  If the summation index moves higher and stalls in the 500 level zone, then the rapid downside could return.  I don't think that will be the case but the market moves where it wants.  For now I'm advising patience and waiting for a technical set up either way.  Gold remains unloved, uninteresting and off the positive radar.  Seven weeks for my ABX October calls and that just won't be enough at this point.  I'm hoping for another rally but hope is not a viable trading strategy.  I'll be looking to take the loss if we get a bump to the upside soon.  We'll watch the foreign markets tonight and see if the Shanghai can continue to hang on here. 

A quiet end to a very volatile week as the Dow fell 11 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow and that's a positive.  The summation index has turned back to the upside.  The decline is over in my opinion.  That doesn't mean we won't head lower again but the bottom that has formed probably won't be broken.  We had blow out readings on some of the daily technical indicators this week and now we need to digest that.  GE rose 1/8 or so and the volume was good.  Just crazy movement for this stock during the week as it followed the overall market.  I'm still looking at the November calls here.  Gold was up over $10 on the futures despite another gain in the US dollar.  The XAU tacked on another 2 points and GDX rose 1/2.  Volume was good.  Not sure why gold decided to move up in the past couple of days.  My ABX October calls are still very much in the red.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It has been a volatile summer for the stock market.  Certainly not what I expected.  The normal summer doldrums did not show up.  It's hard to say exactly what to expect from here but the bottom appears to have been put in.  Declines can be bought.  With three weeks to go in the September option cycle the game plan will be as follows.  If we get to short term overbought, then try the SPY puts on a short term basis.  If we get short term oversold, you can try the SPY calls on a short term basis.  I do not expect the recent wild volatility to return.  One of the problems going forward will be the decay of the option premiums.  Premiums are higher than normal due to the volatility.  As things slow down the volatility premium will be sucked out of both the calls and the puts.  It is another factor to consider when trading for the rest of this option cycle.  As of right now if we see higher S&P 500 prices in the beginning of the week it could set up the puts for the end of the week.  But I will have to check the charts over the weekend.  I think we have already passed the normal Fibonacci retracement levels from the low.  There will still be opportunity going forward in the September option cycle.  Gold remains an afterthought even with the crazy stock market atmosphere.  The rise in the US dollar this week is a headwind as well.  Commodity indexes got a bounce this week despite the rise in the dollar.  Perhaps the precious metals positive seasonality will come back.  But that is more hope than reality at this point.  The short term technical indicators are trying to turn back up here though.  We'll see.  Plenty of data to digest next week including the Feds beige book and the employment report.  This week must be put in the rear view mirror and we have to trade from here.  Opportunity was missed by me last week but it cannot affect how I look at things going forward.  Never an easy time in this game.  I'll do the work over the weekend and get ready for Monday morning.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 369 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 8 to 1 positive.  This might stop the summation index from continuing lower.  The decline is over.  Weakness can be bought in my opinion.  Yes, things can change fast in this game and they just did.  The summation reading is around -1000 and should turn around from here.  Although the decline was severe, it actually could have been worse but the momentum readings did not go as far as the 2008 financial crisis.  If we get short term overbought in the next few days you could try the SPY September puts but it would strictly be short term.  I think the better trades will be from the long side from here.  I could be wrong.  The volatility is still out there.  GE rose a buck on very heavy volume.  Yesterday was the day for the November calls here.  At least that's what it looks like right now.  I'll keep an eye on it.  Gold didn't do much today despite a rise in the US dollar.  The gold shares decided to follow the overall market today.  The XAU was up 2 7/8, while GDX gained 3/4.  Volume was heavy.  Perhaps with the gold shares out performing today, we'll see another rally here.  But one day does not make a trend.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Disappointed of course for not playing this bounce.  One thing for sure is that we will not be seeing such huge moves in the stock indices indefinitely.  Option premiums will eventually reflect this and must be taken into consideration.  Plenty of time left in the September option cycle.  But the easy oversold bounce money has been made.  Things will be more difficult from here.  If we roll over, we can try the calls.  If we head higher perhaps the puts.  But I'll have to be paying closer attention than usual, due to the market environment.  The bull market from the lows of 2009 is still intact.  That up trend line was not broken.  Gold has had its oversold, dead cat bounce.  It still remains unloved.  If it can hold up here and turn back up perhaps we can see more than a two week rally.  But that is probably just wishful thinking on my part.  My ABX October calls are still big losers.  We'll keep an eye out on the overnight action and close out this crazy week tomorrow. 

An oversold bounce to the upside as the Dow rallied 619 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues lower.  Is the decline over?  It could be.  Is this a chance to get short again?  That is a possibility as well.  I did not get the SPY September calls today and perhaps this was the best opportunity.  We are still oversold and there could be more upside to come.  We now have support on the S&P 500 at the 1870 level.  It looks like we may have bottomed out on the McClellan oscillator in the -300s and not below the -400 level that I was looking for.  But it is a day to day challenge right now.  There will still be plenty of opportunities in the September option cycle I believe.  GE was up 3/4 on very heavy volume.  I'm looking at the November calls here.  No hurry though.  Gold fell again today on the stronger US dollar and the stock market rally.  The gold futures lost another $13.  The gold shares continued their recent slump and closed below the previous lows for the year.  The XAU dropped 2 1/4, while GDX shed 2/3.  Volume was good.  My ABX October calls are now almost dead.  The gold shares are weaker than the metal itself and that is bearish.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The question now is whether or not we will get a V bottom for the market or not.  I don't have the answer.  We also don't know if the recent lows will hold.  So as usual there are a lot of questions without any definite answers.  I'm thinking that the worst is over as the technical readings for some indicators went off the grid.  But I cannot be 100% certain.  I'm still going to be on the lookout for some SPY September calls at some point.  But if we get short term overbought, I will try the puts.  I'm also looking at the longer term calls for GE.  The gold shares are leading the way down in the precious metals complex and that is a negative.  I did think that these issues were being dumped along with the overall market.  But when we rally over 600 points and the gold shares drop, you can forget about that theory.  The gold shares remain unloved and in retrospect, I should have just taken the loss when we had the mini rally two weeks ago.  However looking in the rear view mirror now is a waste of time.  Certainly interesting times for the stock market.  We'll watch what happens in the overseas markets tonight and see if the world can rally with the US.     

It was a one day reversal to the downside as we fell apart in the final hour.  The Dow lost 204 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The day began up over 400 points but we couldn't hold on.  The summation index continues lower.  I don't know what exactly is happening here and I certainly don't know what will happen tomorrow.  I did peg support for the S&P 500 at 1850 but it looks like we'll get through there tomorrow.  The bull market up trend line comes in at 1750-1700.  Can we drop that far this week?  I do want to try the SPY September calls but you really have to pay attention and be quick to take a profit if there is any.  Perhaps I should remain on the sidelines as well.  GE lost 60 cents on heavy volume.  I'm looking at the November GE calls but it may be early and probably is.  Gold took a hit today as the futures lost $13 on a stronger US dollar.  The XAU lost almost 2 and GDX fell almost 1/2.  Volume was heavy.  It appears the recent bounce in gold was of the dead cat variety.  If a global market sell off can't find buyers for the precious metals, than what can?  My ABX October calls are still losers.  The seasonal strength for gold has evaporated for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Interesting times.  The McClellan oscillator got to -345 yesterday but I'd like to see a reading in the -400s to try the SPY September calls.  That would be the ideal scenario.  But the market is in unknown waters and the environment is treacherous.  The fact that we could not hold on to the gains today does not bode well for tomorrow.  The falling knife syndrome is apparent.  There is some kind of problem in the world stock markets.  Oversold, staying there and moving lower.  I'll have to re-check the longer term charts tonight.  In a market such as this things become compressed.  What I mean by that is that everything with price moves faster.  As with todays rally that has already sold off.  Movements that normally take days only take hours.  You have to be nimble and you have to be quick.  It isn't for everybody and there is no shame just stepping aside until we get back to a more normal marketplace.  That said, I'm still going to try and find an entry point for the SPY September calls.  The Shanghai market is crashing and taking everybody else with it seems to be the popular story line.  But we really don't know the underlying reasons for the decline.  So we'll watch what happens around the world tonight and see what tomorrow brings.

Not your typical Monday in the summer.  The Dow continues in crash mode, losing another 588 points on extremely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 19 to 1 negative.  The Dow opened down a bit over 1000 points this morning.  The summation index has run through the zero line and is heading lower in a hurry.  Stock markets around the world are falling apart.  Volatility is off the charts.  I had support at around 1900 for the S&P 500 but 1850 now looks like a better level.  You can try and catch the falling knife but the sidelines aren't a bad thing.  That said, we will bounce this week but the question is from what level.  Option premiums are very high.  I'll have to see where the McClellan oscillator finished today.  If and when we get below the -400 level is where we should see a bounce.  Not exactly sure what is going on here but I'd venture to guess that we are getting a worldwide margin call where anything will be sold to meet the requirements.  GE lost 3/4 on very heavy volume.  It was much lower but it is hard to say where you actually could have purchased it today.  The electronic quotes vs. reality comes into play.  We are also in a fast market which puts a skew on things as well.  Gold did not see a flight to safety as it too had to be sold.  The futures here fell $5 despite a drop of over a point in the US dollar.  The gold shares got pounded with the overall stock market.  The XAU shed 4 points, while GDX dropped 1 1/4.  Volume was huge.  My ABX October calls are back solidly in the red.  Let me say that nobody knows how long this rout can continue.  This is one of those rare technical events.  The bull market long term trend line comes in at 1750.  Perhaps we'll make it all the way back to there.  Very oversold now but we are in crash mode.  I may try the SPY September calls on weakness tomorrow depending on the McClellan oscillator.  But any trade now carries more risk than usual due to the nature of the environment.  But you can't trade scared.  However I can also make the case for sitting on the sidelines until we get back to a more normal market atmosphere.  It has been one crazy summer.  Gold is not seeing the flight to safety that I would expect with the events surrounding us.  Neither is the US dollar.  I believe that is telling us that this is some type of liquidity driven event where anything of value has to be sold.  That's a guess as usual.  We'll see if the decline continues to feed upon itself around the globe tonight. 

Crash, as we are now down over 1000 points in three days.  The Dow got clocked again today on expiration Friday.  The most watched index fell 530 points on extremely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative.  We have dropped through the zero line on the summation index and fallen apart on cue.  Very short term oversold but when the conditions as they are now, it doesn't matter.  I'm not sure how far down we go here but anything is possible.  Monday will be interesting.  Everybody is heading to the exits.  I expected this long trading range in the S&P 500 to resolve itself to the upside but I was wrong.  What I thought was a bottom being formed around the zero line in the summation index turned out to be a ledge to fall off of.  We had flirted with breaking through lower in the past weeks but now it has happened.  Volatility is off the charts and I'm not sure where we'll bounce from but it will happen at some point next week.  I'm sticking with the theory that rallies can be shorted from here on out.  GE lost 60 cents on heavy volume.  Gaps to the downside here on the daily chart.  Support is at $23.  Perhaps I'll try the November calls if we get there.  Oversold on a short and medium term basis but there isn't any hurry to purchase anything in this environment.  Gold was up a little over $5 today which wasn't much considering the market carnage and the drop in the US dollar.  Perhaps gold was being sold to make margin calls but that's a guess as usual.  The gold shares fell, which isn't bullish going forward.  The XAU lost 1 1/2 and GDX dropped 3/8.  Volume was good.  The daily candlestick charts here now have a bearish look to them and the short term technical indicators are overbought.  My ABX October calls are still in the red.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Of course not being able to take advantage of this precipitous drop in the S&P 500 is frustrating.  But considering it has happened in the last 3 days of option expiration week, I can't beat myself up too much.  Taking positions with such little time left before expiration is a game that I don't usually play.  The fact that we have hovered around the zero line for weeks without a breakdown is another reason that I won't beat myself up so much for missing this move.  But I think we all know that the only thing that matters now is where we go from here.  Rolling into the September option cycle with all this volatility means that the premiums will be sky high.  I'm pretty sure that the next support in the S&P 500 is around 1900.  I don't know how fast we'll get to there but that would be a good level to start looking for some calls.  Of course I will have to check the charts out over the weekend.  We closed on the low of the day again and that is bearish.  There's also history of the Monday after a Friday like this as being pretty ugly.  So there is much to ponder over the next 2 days.  Gold has found some interest but it certainly isn't as robust as I would like to see in an environment like this.  The gold shares could be acting better here as well but they aren't so far.  I'd still like to at least see gold reach the resistance at $1180 and then $1225.  But the markets don't care about what I'd like to see.  Let's not forget that we're in a technical situation that doesn't happen too often.  The magnitude of the drop here is unknown.  It is a time to be careful and not risk a whole lot on any idea.  Plenty of work to do this weekend but for now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

And here we are.  The Dow got clobbered today as it fell 358 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  The trend is down and we are breaking through the support at 2040 on the S&P 500.  The market is falling apart at the zero line in the summation index.  This is a rare occurrence and not to be ignored.  We danced around the zero line for a few weeks and now we are moving through.  Rallies can be shorted until further notice.  I don't know how far and how long this will last.  It may even be too late but we'll have to see how things pan out.  GE was off 1/2 on good volume and has broken the 200 day moving average decisively.  There is another clue as to where we're heading.  Gold was up over $20 on the futures as the US dollar fell for a second straight day.  The fear factor is propping up gold for now in a flight to safety.  The XAU rose 1 3/4 and GDX was up 5/8.  Volume was good.  The gold shares are still lagging gold and that isn't the most bullish of scenarios going forward.  ABX was up 1/3 on good volume but came off of the highs for the session.  My ABX October calls are getting back to break even but not there yet.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Nothing but volatility this summer and that has been a surprise to me.  The market is in trouble here.  Caution is still advised.  The first area of support is the 2000 to 1990 level on the S&P 500.  We should get there.  If that doesn't hold then 1900 is on the table.  We closed on the low of the session today and that is bearish.  I'll be looking at the SPY September puts on any rebound.  But we may just go straight down from here.  Gold has found some interest.  However it's taking a market collapse to get it moving.  The first resistance is at $1180.  After that there's a down trend line at around $1225.  GDX has resistance at 18 and then again at 19.  The gold shares aren't in the lead here and that should lend itself to some consolidation at some point.  But who knows?  If we get an all out rout in the stock market anything can happen.  We've still got over 5 weeks in the favorable seasonal time frame for gold and that seems to be happening this year.  But as always the markets go where they want.  Overnight should be very interesting as markets around the globe react to todays US market decline.  Expiration Friday tomorrow.       

It has been one crazy summer.  The Dow was all over the place today and finished with a loss of 162 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative.  This should put the summation index back to the downside but it has been essentially moving sideways.  We sold off over 200 in the morning, came all the way back to be slightly positive and then rolled over again.  It hasn't been a quiet summer.  The Fed minutes came out and they can be interpreted any way you like.  The short term technical indicators are starting to roll over for the major averages.  GE was off 1/3 and volume picked up.  Still holding the 200 day moving average but keep an eye on it.  Gold found buyers as the US dollar declined.  The precious metal futures rose over $10.  The XAU added 1 3/8, while GDX gained 3/8.  Volume was average.  Gold is advancing on cue with the seasonal bias so far.  ABX was up 1/4 but my October calls are still in the red.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  My theory of a rising expiration week seems to be shot down after today.  We must stick with the technicals.  We are back at support in some of the major averages.  Things do need to hold up here because if they don't, things could get ugly.  We are still in close proximity to the zero line in the summation index.  Things will turn bearish fast if we drop through there.  There was weakness around the globe last night although the Shanghai market did make a comeback.  The continuing drop in the price of oil has players concerned as well.  I do not know the story behind these events but with the indicators rolling over I have to move to a cautious stance.  Perhaps gold and the US dollar will see a flight to safety here if things really get dicey.  Hasn't happened yet.  Gold is finding some buyers now, for whatever reason.  But the metal is slightly ahead of the gold shares and we'll need to see that reverse to be really bullish.  At any rate the summer doldrums are short lived when they do show up this year.  It hasn't been the normal routine.  We'll watch what happens overnight and see if we get some downside follow through in the US tomorrow.  

Basically a drift today as the Dow fell 33 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative.  Not much on the news front as we await the Fed minutes tomorrow.  The Shanghai market did drop 6% overnight, so that might bear watching again.  Otherwise it's finally summer on Wall Street.  Listless trading and light volume.  GE was off 1/8 or so on light volume.  Sideways here for about a month.  Gold was off slightly on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU lost a point and GDX fell 1/4.  Volume was average.  Slowing down here as well.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Three days to go in the August option cycle.  No need to take any chances there.  In fact the market could be on hold until we get into September.  That's a guess as usual.  Still more overbought than oversold here for the major stock averages.  We'll break out one way or the other from this extended range.  You just want to get on board when that happens.  But you can't make it happen.  The market will make up its mind in its own time.  We'll follow the overnight action and await the Fed minutes tomorrow.

A one day reversal to the upside as the Dow climbed 67 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  The Dow was off over 100 to start the day.  We came all the way back and then some.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow and that is a positive.  There is also the expiration week positive bias to consider.  The only caveat is the light volume but it is summer and the next couple of weeks should be slow despite todays volatility.  GE was up 1/8 and the volume was light.  No trades here for now.  Gold was up a bit on the futures as was the US dollar.  The XAU rose 1 7/8, while GDX was up 1/2.  Volume was good here.  I'd expect some more consolidation for the gold shares before we can perhaps get another leg up.  ABX was up about 20 cents on OK volume.  My October calls there are still mired in the red.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Today was  a sleepy Monday in August.  But was it?  The game is always interesting.  Now what would make things sell off early in the morning and then make up all that ground and more?  No news to speak of.  Now would all the hedge funds, banks, pension funds, investment companies, etc. get their selling for the week out of the way early on Monday of expiration week in the summer.  That would be a perfect set-up to purchase your index calls and watch them rise in value pre-expiration.  Now nobody is really paying that much attention are they?  My only regret is that I'm not in there to play along.  We'll see how the rest of the week plays out.  Getting short term overbought and might be there with upside tomorrow.  Gold had some interest last week but until we see higher values there it looks like a dead cat bounce.  Perhaps the Fed minutes on Wednesday will get things going.  Inflation data out that day as well.  We'll watch the overnight action in the foreign markets and go from there.  

A drift higher today as the Dow gained 69 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving sideways but the breadth was better today.  Today finally felt like a summer day in the stock market.  Expiration week coming up and so I do think the positive bias will be in effect.  I do not think that I'll be trying the SPY August calls though.  Probably too late for that.  GE was up almost 1/3 and the volume was light.  If GE is a precursor for the overall market, more upside is on the way.  Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures today as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  The rise in the gold shares has been put on hold for now.  There's nothing wrong with some consolidation here.  My ABX October calls are still well in the red.  I'll need to see some more upside there to hopefully cut the loss.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm still looking for a positive resolution to the months long trading channel in the S&P 500.  Of course the timing remains unknown if this does occur.  In the near term the SPY calls remain the choice for now.  The only caveat is that todays rally was on light volume and light volume rallies cannot be trusted.  But I do think that there is more room to move higher in the beginning of next week.  That's a guess as usual however the short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have moved up.  The best time to purchase the calls has passed.  I chose the safer route of the sidelines for now.  Gold and the gold shares finally had a positive week.  It is being called a dead cat bounce, which could be the case.  Time will tell on that but it is a start in the right direction for the bulls.  I'll harp on the positive seasonal factor for gold here again.  Perhaps this year it will happen in the coming weeks.  Not much else to say with the final two weeks of August upon us.  Perhaps the summer doldrums will finally arrive at the end of the month.  There will be plenty of players on their family vacations before September.  It is something that must be factored into the trading.  But it hasn't affected trading yet as this year has been a volatile one for the summer so far.  I'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Not exactly the upside follow through we were looking for as the Dow rose 5 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The short term technical indicators are mid-range for the S&P 500.  I am looking at the August SPY calls for a trade of expiration week.  But it will be extremely risky with only 6 days to go in this months option cycle.  Perhaps the sidelines would be the more prudent route to go.  I'll consider things overnight.  GE was off a few cents on very light volume.  Still holding the 200 day moving average.  Gold was lower today as the futures lost around ten bucks.  The US dollar was flat on the session.  The gold shares took a hit.  The XAU fell 2 3/4, while GDX lost 7/8.  Volume was heavy here.  Some negative action is expected for the gold shares now since we are short term overbought.  We'll see if it can be contained.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  After yesterdays stellar comeback, we didn't see much upside follow through today.  That isn't exactly bullish.  Retail sales came in where expected and wasn't the market mover that I thought it would be.  More economic data out tomorrow including inflation but I don't think it will amount to much.  I could be wrong.  So on we go.  August isn't the most positive month for stocks but I am still looking at a short term call trade.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.  Gold had a bounce and it will be interesting to see where we go from here.  ABX was off 1/3 on good volume today.  Waiting on how the week closes there.  The medium term technicals there are still oversold so there is room to the upside if we can get things moving that way.  Remains to be seen.  We'll watch the overnight action and finish the week tomorrow.

All I can say is what a day.  The Dow was pounded early on and down over 250 points.  However it came all the way back and finished the session basically unchanged.  The advance/declines were about even and the volume was very heavy.  The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 had slight gains after being routed.  Did we put in a meaningful bottom today?  We did make it all the way down to the lower portion of the extended trading range in the S&P 500.  So perhaps now maybe we'll see a run back up to the top of the range and new highs.  But tomorrow is another day and the volatility this summer has not relented.  GE was up 15 cents on good volume.  The 200 day moving average continues to hold.  Gold rallied on a very weak US dollar.  The precious metal futures added $15 on good volume.  The dollar dropped a full point.  The gold shares continued their ascent as the XAU rose 3 1/3, while GDX gained a point.  Volume was heavy here as well.  It appears that in fact the seasonal rally in gold is showing up this year.  ABX was up almost 1/2 on heavy volume.  Maybe the ABX October calls that I have won't lose as much as previously thought.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Retail sales due tomorrow.  I have no idea how the market will react.  It would be a positive if we could build off of the comeback that occurred today.  Todays price action looks like a hammer on the daily candlestick charts for the major stock averages.  But as usual the market will go where it wants.  The summation index is trying to move higher but is really just going sideways.  Gold is having quite a week so far.  But it could just be a dead cat bounce.  Time will tell on that.  But there's still a month and a half on the positive seasonal factor here so there may be more room to go on the upside.  That's a guess as usual.  Technically the gold shares are now short term overbought.  A little consolidation would not be a bad thing.  We'll look for some upside in the foreign markets overnight after todays comeback in the Dow.  Then we'll see what happens with the retail sales tomorrow morning.  

Back to the downside today as the Dow fell 212 points on good volume.  The advance/declines weren't even 2 to 1 negative though.  China devalued the yaun overnight and that caused selling around the globe.  We're still stuck in a trading range with respect to the S&P 500.  I'm looking for a positive resolution to the sideways activity that has been in effect since the beginning of the year.  But anything can happen.  Still flirting with the zero line in the summation index.  GE dropped 1/2 on average volume.  The 200 day moving average continues to provide support here.  Perhaps if it is broken we will have an idea of where the overall stock market is headed.  Just a guess there.  Gold was up a bit on the futures on good volume.  The US dollar finished the session little changed but it did bounce around a bit.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains but they did come off of their lows.  Volume was average.  ABX had heavy volume but was only up a few cents.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It has been a volatile summer so far for the stock market.  Not the typical trading by far.  You can make a case for either direction here but the market will go where it wants.  My guess is that the retail sales on Thursday will provide the next gyration.  No SPY trades for now.  8 days to go in the August option cycle.  The gold shares have performed better than gold lately and that is a plus.  Hasn't happened in quite some time.  Perhaps some overall market turbulence will provide some interest in the precious metal.  Although that hasn't been the case so far this summer.  We are in the positive seasonal time frame for gold now.  We'll keep an eye on the next surprise to occur in the foreign markets overnight and go from there. 

A rally appeared today out of nowhere as the Dow soared 241 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  This should move the summation index back to the upside.  No reasons for todays ascent but we were very oversold on the short term and a bounce was due.  There was no weakness today so I did not have the opportunity to purchase the SPY August calls.  We will have to see if we get any upside follow through to todays action.  Maybe we are finally on our way to new highs in the S&P 500.  GE was up almost 1/2 on light volume.  The 200 day moving average has provided support for now.  Gold saw some buyers as the futures rose around $10.  The US dollar was weaker today.  The gold shares found some interest as well with the XAU gained 3 1/3, while GDX added 7/8.  Volume was good here.  There was a positive article on commodities in Barrons over the weekend and perhaps that sparked some buying interest.  Otherwise it can be viewed as an oversold bounce with some short covering.  ABX was up 1/2 but it will take more than that to help cut the loss on my October call trade there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Buying across the board today and we haven't seen that for a while.  I'm not exactly sure what to make of it.  We're still stuck in a trading range for the S&P 500.  August isn't the most positive month for the stock averages, so if we continue to simply churn after today it wouldn't be a surprise.  So we'll see what happens.  Today was a good day for gold and we haven't said that in months.  Perhaps the favorable seasonal effect is going to kick in this year.  One day doesn't make a trend but at least it's start in the right direction for the bulls.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight action and go from there.

Lower again as the Dow fell 46 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The employment report came in as expected and we had weakness from the start.  We did come back in the final hour and that is bullish in my book.  Short term oversold for the major stock indices.  I think that weakness Monday can be bought.  I will be looking at the SPY calls to start the week.  Today was not as volatile as I expected but the volume remains good.  The S&P 500 is trying to hold its 200 day moving average.  GE was off 1/4 on summer average volume.  Trying to hold on at the 200 day here as well.  The technicals here are oversold on a short term basis.  Gold was up $5 today as the US dollar was a bit weaker.  Both the XAU and GDX were little changed after being higher early.  The gold shares could not hold their gains and that is not a positive.  Volume was average.  ABX was up a bit but could not hold its gains as well.  Volume was heavy.  My ABX October calls remain losers and it doesn't look like they will ever get back for a reasonable loss.  I'll give this trade a couple more weeks but it will probably go down as a disaster.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The employment report is now out of the way and not much economic data due next week with the exception of retail sales.  The summation index is moving sideways and we are near the zero line.  I would like to try the SPY August calls at the beginning of next week if we see weakness on Monday.  That is my thought at the moment but I will consider this trade over the weekend.  August can sometimes be a dicey month for stocks.  We have yet to see the summer doldrums this year but they could appear at any time.  That would definitely not help with any option trades.  Still two weeks to go in the August option cycle.  Gold and the gold shares remain mired in a slump and I don't see any way out of it on the horizon.  We are in the favorable seasonal time period for this group but it hasn't helped so far.  So we wait.  It would probably be a good idea to perhaps take a break from the game because it is summer.  But you can't afford to miss anything as well.  It is never easy in the game.  I'll check the charts over the weekend and come up with a decision about what to do next week.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

The Dow falls again as we are now short term oversold.  The most watched index dropped 120 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative but not as much as a down 120 market would suggest.  That has been the theme lately.  Declines with not really bad breadth.  Another factor lately has been the heavy volume, especially for summer.  I'm not sure what it all means though.  The small stocks took a pounding today as well.  We will have to see how things turn out with the employment report.  I don't know what to expect there.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was pretty light.  Gold was up a bit on the futures today as the US dollar had a slight loss.  The XAU rose 1 1/3, while GDX gained 1/4.  Volume was good for the gold shares but they came off of their highs.  ABX was up 1/3 on heavy volume.  The earnings weren't all that good and they cut the dividend but the stock rose anyway.  That's bullish in my book.  Wasn't enough to help my ABX October calls though.  We'll need to see a lot of up days to help cut the loss there.  Maybe if the employment report is weak we'll see a pop for gold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The Dow did hit a new closing low for the past few months today.  The 50 day moving average is about to pass through the 200 day moving average as well.  That would constitute a sell signal there.  I'm still leaning bullish though as the breadth hasn't collapsed for the overall market.  The summation index is now moving sideways.  I suppose anything can happen here.  Hopefully tomorrow will give us an indication of where we're going.  The major averages have really been moving simply sideways so far this year.  Gold is going nowhere fast and the gold shares have been slaughtered.  I still say the gold shares are a screaming buy down here on a longer term basis.  But we're here to trade.  We will have to see if the positive seasonality kicks in for gold this year.  All eyes on the jobs numbers tomorrow.  

We started out strong but faded for the rest of the day.  The Dow fell 10 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were about even.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow with both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ showing good gains.  The summation index is moving higher but still not at a rapid pace.  I do believe that this will work itself out to higher prices going forward.  Just waiting on Friday now.  GE was up 20 cents on light volume.  Gold was off a bit on the futures.  The US dollar finished the session little changed.  The XAU fell another point and GDX lost 1/4.  Volume was average for lately.  The gold share drop continues unabated.  ABX dropped another 1/4 on good volume as we await the earnings report tonight.  Although it now appears that the earnings will be out tomorrow morning.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not much to add about todays price action.  It seems as though perhaps we are getting the last selling out of the way before Friday.  I will say that the volume has been a lot more than normal for the past couple of weeks.  So we are about to get going one way or the other in my opinion.  Being wrapped up in this losing ABX October call trade has my attention.  The mental capital expanded here takes away from other opportunities that may be out there.  That is the problem with losing trades.  They really need to be gotten rid of as soon as possible.  There is a lot of time left for the ABX trade.  Plus we are in the supposedly seasonally strong period for gold.  But the time devoted to that trade at this point seems to be wasted.  Tomorrow should see some movement one way or the other for ABX.  The overall market will most likely be in a holding pattern for Fridays employment report.  We'll keep an eye on the overseas action tonight and see what tomorrow brings.

More of a drift lower today as the Dow fell 47 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is moving up but barely.  The drop in AAPL hung over the market today.  Really just waiting for Friday here in my mind.  Nothing has changed technically since yesterday.  GE was flat on the session and the volume was light.  No trades for GE here.  Gold was up $5 in the spot market despite a move higher in the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX were flat after being slightly higher early on average volume.  Still no interest in gold and commodities in general.  ABX was up a dime as we await the earnings after the bell tomorrow.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm still a believer that things are going to work there way higher for the major stock indices.  Only a rapid breakdown to take out support would change my view.  We're in a holding pattern for now.  This is as close as we've gotten to the summer doldrums for this year.  Things should get interesting by Friday.  Gold is still holding the $1080 level but a break through there will lead to another leg down.  Hasn't happened yet.  The gold shares remain oversold on all time frames.  We'll watch the overnight action and see what Wednesday has in store.

We begin the month of August with a whimper as the Dow fell 91 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  No technical damage was done and we finished well off of the lows for the session.  I'm still looking for higher prices going forward, although August has a reputation of not being the kindest time period for stocks.  No reason given for todays decline with the exception of weaker commodities once again.  We'll see if we get any follow through downside tomorrow.  GE was off 1/4 and volume picked up.  Bouncing off of the 200 day moving average here.  Gold fell about $5 on the futures as the US dollar had a positive day.  The gold shares continue to get pummeled.  The XAU fell 2 points, while GDX dropped 1/2.  Volume remains strong here.  ABX was off another 1/3 and volume was still good.  My ABX October calls are major losers.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The summation index is still heading higher so I don't think that today is the beginning of something stronger to the downside.  Of course that could change going forward.  The employment report on Friday should be the catalyst for movement one way or the other.  But we still have the rest of the week to get through.  The short term technical indicators are mid-range for the major stock indices.  The gold shares have broken down from the latest consolidation zone.  Oversold on all time frames and staying there.  This is quite a decline for these issues.  I'm still a believer that if you have a longer term time horizon, you won't go wrong picking up these stocks here.  But on the short term it appears we will be going lower yet still.  ABX earnings due after the bell on Wednesday.  That will probably seal the fate of my ABX October calls trade.  We'll keep an eye on the overseas markets tonight and take it from there.