We begin the month of August with a whimper as the Dow fell 91 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  No technical damage was done and we finished well off of the lows for the session.  I'm still looking for higher prices going forward, although August has a reputation of not being the kindest time period for stocks.  No reason given for todays decline with the exception of weaker commodities once again.  We'll see if we get any follow through downside tomorrow.  GE was off 1/4 and volume picked up.  Bouncing off of the 200 day moving average here.  Gold fell about $5 on the futures as the US dollar had a positive day.  The gold shares continue to get pummeled.  The XAU fell 2 points, while GDX dropped 1/2.  Volume remains strong here.  ABX was off another 1/3 and volume was still good.  My ABX October calls are major losers.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The summation index is still heading higher so I don't think that today is the beginning of something stronger to the downside.  Of course that could change going forward.  The employment report on Friday should be the catalyst for movement one way or the other.  But we still have the rest of the week to get through.  The short term technical indicators are mid-range for the major stock indices.  The gold shares have broken down from the latest consolidation zone.  Oversold on all time frames and staying there.  This is quite a decline for these issues.  I'm still a believer that if you have a longer term time horizon, you won't go wrong picking up these stocks here.  But on the short term it appears we will be going lower yet still.  ABX earnings due after the bell on Wednesday.  That will probably seal the fate of my ABX October calls trade.  We'll keep an eye on the overseas markets tonight and take it from there. 

A bit of weakness to close out the month as the Dow fell 56 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive though.  This should turn the summation index back up.  The short term technical are mid-range for the S&P 500.  I do think we are heading for higher prices.  The beginning of the month money flows should kick in on Monday.  Plenty of economic data due next week, with the employment report on Friday the key release.  GE was flat on the session and volume was very light.  Nothing doing there for now.  Gold found some buyers as the futures were up six bucks on a weaker US dollar.  The XAU was up 7/8 and GDX rose 1/3.  Volume was lighter than it's been.  ABX was flat on the day.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Three weeks to go in the August option cycle.  We have yet to see the summer doldrums appear in the stock market but that could change going forward.  After we get through the employment numbers, things may slow down.  That's a guess as usual.  As I said the short term technical indicators for the most part are mid-range for the major stock indices.  So you can make a case for either direction.  The small stocks have acted a bit better here and that's a positive.  With the summation index turning around, I think you have to look for higher equity prices moving forward.  Gold has moved sideways for a couple weeks.  It could just be a consolidation after we dropped off from the $1180 area.  That's what it looks like.  $1080 is the new level to watch on the downside.  It's held so far but there is nothing to say the decline in gold will stop there.  I'm banking on the positive seasonality showing up but it's simply a guess if that will happen this time around.  My ABX October calls remain big losers.  I'll be going over the market data this weekend as always.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Almost unchanged on the session after selling off early.  The Dow lost 5 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were about even.  GDP came in about where expected and the market lost some ground early.  However we came all the way back and that is a positive.  The small stocks had good relative strength as well and that is a plus.  The summation index is trying to turn around here and a decent positive breadth day should do the trick.  I'm looking for higher prices going forward.  GE fell about 1/8 on light volume.  No trades in mind here.  Gold dropped on a stronger US dollar.  The spot gold price fell $7 on light volume.  The XAU dropped 1 3/4, while GDX shed 1/2.  Volume was good here.  Still no love for gold and the gold shares.  My ABX October options remain mired in red ink.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll finish the month of July tomorrow.  A couple of minor economic reports are due.  Position squaring for some funds as usual.  It was a positive month for the major averages.  If we can get the summation index heading back to the upside, I'll once again say that we're headed for new all time highs in the S&P 500.  Gold has been going nowhere or lower.  We are entering the positive seasonal time of August/September for the precious metal.  If we don't see some kind of rally here, I'd be surprised.  The oversold condition here has lasted longer than I would have imagined.  The gold shares have been decimated.  The carnage seen hasn't happen since the last major bear market in gold.  But bear markets don't last forever.  I suppose I am hoping for some kind of bounce to cut my losses in the ABX October call trade.  We'll see.  We'll watch the action overseas tonight and finish up the week and month tomorrow.

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 121 points on once again heavy volume.  The advance/declines were about 3 to 1 positive.  The McClellan oscillator should be back to around the zero line, while the summation index is trying to turn around.  The Fed came and went and there was nothing really new there to report.  The market viewed the statement in a positive light and the early daily rally continued.  I think that the decline of last week has run its course and higher prices are coming.  The TRAN broke through its daily downtrend line today and that is a positive.  Perhaps this is the beginning of the summer rally that I've been looking for.  GE was up over 1/8 and the volume was light.  No trades in mind there.  Gold was slightly lower on the session despite a good move up in the US dollar.  The gold shares were slightly higher as the XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains.  Volume was good.  My ABX October calls are still very much in the red.  I did purchase ABX outright today in a non trading account.  Still very oversold on all time frames for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Two triple digit up days in a row and we'll see how tomorrows GDP report affects things.  Stabilization in the Chinese market would probably help the bullish cause here as well.  The short term buy signal on Monday was valid.  Now it is a matter of how high will we go.  Unless we see a dramatic turnaround tomorrow, the trend is up.  Gold is trying to stop its decline here in my opinion.  The jury is still out there.  Gold remains unloved but perhaps we will get a short covering rally here soon.  That is a hope and not a prediction.  Still very oversold on the precious metals.  We'll watch the action tonight and see how the market reacts to the GDP report tomorrow. 

The bounce arrived as expected as the Dow rose 189 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were about 3 to 1 positive.  Even with todays action the summation index is still heading lower.  In the days to come we will see if this is just an oversold reaction or the beginning of the next leg up.  The short term technical indicators have turned up for the major stock indexes.  But that doesn't mean that we can't turn around again.  The TRAN had a very good day so perhaps the trend has turned.  If the TRAN can break through the downtrend line that has been in effect since March, that would be a clue.  The McClellan oscillator hit an area yesterday where previous rallies have begun.  GE was up an 1/8 or so on average volume.  Bouncing off the 200 day moving average here.  Gold was off a bit on the futures as the US dollar had a slight gain.  The XAU was up 3/4, while GDX gained 1/8.  Volume was lighter than lately.  ABX was flat on the session but volume remained high.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll get the Fed statement tomorrow and it should be on course for a rate hike in September.  That is what the market expects.  Yesterday was the time to purchase some SPY calls.  Being preoccupied with my ABX trade obviously has its disadvantages when other opportunities are missed.  This could be the case right now.  The oversold signal for at least a bounce was valid and I have missed it.  But you've got to keep moving on.  As usual the mental capital wasted always is worth more than the money.  I'm still cautious here though because of the proximity of the summation index zero line.  But there is always the chance we'll hold there as well.  The game is never easy.  I may just buy ABX outright tomorrow if it heads lower.  That will be a longer term proposition and not a trade.  After the Fed tomorrow we'll get the first read on the second quarter GDP on Thursday.  End of the month on Friday.  So considering that it's the summer, it should be rather busy.  The volume lately has been heavier than we've seen in a while as well.  All eyes are on the Chinese stock market now, as the decline there has reappeared.  I guess we've forgotten about Greece for now.  So we'll watch the overseas action tonight and wait on the Fed tomorrow.        

Still lower to begin the week as the Dow fell 127 points on good volume.  The advance/ declines were about 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower and going through the zero line.  Short term oversold to be sure here and a bounce should appear in a hurry.  I'm not sure that a bounce will hold at this point.  Some of the major stock averages are trying to put the brakes on at their 200 day moving averages.  I don't know it they'll be successful.  I'm still advising caution for now.  GE was up 20 cents on summer average volume.  GE is bouncing off of its 200 day moving average here.  Perhaps GE will be a precursor for things in the overall market.  But I will take a wait and see attitude for that.  Gold was up around 8 bucks on the futures but that was basically catch up from Fridays aftermarket action.  The US dollar was lower on the session.  The gold stocks moved back down with the XAU shedding 1 7/8 and GDX off 1/2.  Volume remains above average here.  ABX was off 1/3 on heavy volume.  My ABX October calls remain big losers.  I'll be holding them until at least the earnings report due in a couple of weeks.  The gold shares remain very oversold on all time frames.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've got the Fed on Wednesday which should be a non-event.  Policy should remain unchanged.  GDP on Thursday may be the more important topic.  That's a guess as usual.  The stock market is short term oversold here.  We should see some upside to relieve that condition.  The problem is that the summation index is heading through the zero line and that gives the chance for a collapse.  That doesn't mean that it has to happen.  But it does put you on alert that it might occur because we are not in this technical area very often.  That is why you have to be careful at this particular juncture.  Gold remains unloved, oversold and the selling is back after a day of respite.  I'm thinking that we may see more selling going into the end of the month.  I don't know how much lower the gold shares can go here.  Oversold, staying there and I really think that this is a long term buying opportunity in that area.  I could be wrong and often am but the downside here is out of control.  I am trying to buy ABX outright a bit lower from here but not in my trading account.  The overseas markets were weak as well today.  We'll see how they react overnight to the continued downside from the US equity market.

The market continued its decline as the Dow fell 163 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were about 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is now heading lower.  I will have to revise my thinking here as we are close to the zero line in the summation index again.  There is a possibility of a collapse when we get near that line.  I have been bullish since the recent decline but the market may be saying otherwise.  Caution is now the word.  We are short term oversold on the S&P 500.  Some kind of bounce is due.  We'll have to pay attention to the quality of that bounce.  Today was a pretty negative day with volume and that is not a positive.  GE dropped 1/2 on average volume.  Not sure exactly what is going on here as well.  Perhaps the market knows things that we don't.  Gold found some buyers today as the futures ended up a few bucks after being lower early.  The US dollar was up a bit today and also came off of its highs.  The XAU rose 1  1/4, while GDX was up 1/2.  Volume was very heavy again here and it was a one day reversal to the upside for the gold shares.  Could the bottom finally be in for this group?  Time will tell.  ABX was up 18 cents on extremely heavy volume.  Maybe we had some flight to safety with todays decline and the weekend coming up.  Didn't do much to help my ABX October calls.  I'll need to see a sustained rally to cut the loss there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Interesting times in the stock market so far this summer.  This summer has been the most volatile in this time period recently.  First it was Greece and right now I don't know what it is.  I would not be surprised to see things turn back around to the upside next week.  But with the summation index zero line in play, we have to consider the possibility of a dramatic drop as well.  I think that I'll be staying on the sidelines unless we get very oversold.  I'll consider the possibilities over the weekend.  ABX has bounced and it did not hit my price for buying the stock outright.  I may have to adjust that order up as well.  As I said before, on a longer term time frame the gold shares are at a very attractive level.  Nobody wants them and they have been blown out to the downside.  The fundamentals for gold are still negative though.  However the seasonally favorable time period of August/September is almost upon us.  Plenty to ponder in that area at the moment.  I'll be checking all the charts over the weekend to try and come up with a game plan for next week.  We've got the Fed next week along with the first look at the second quarter GDP.  Plus the end of the month.  So I'd expect the volatility to remain in place.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Still lower as the Dow fell 119 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  Better than average volume to the downside lately and that is interesting.  I still don't think that we are headed for an extended decline but what do I know lately?  The summation index will be heading lower after todays action.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages have now more than rolled over and are heading lower.  Not a good oversold reading here just yet.  The tech stocks have led the decline.  GE was off 1/3 today on light volume.  GE recently stalled at its 50 day moving average.  Gold fell about 5 bucks on the futures and the US dollar was lower today as well.  The gold shares continue to get crushed as the XAU dropped 2 1/3, while GDX fell 3/8.  Volume remains heavy here.  I believe that this is the final washout for the gold shares.  The end is probably near.  ABX shed almost 1/3 on still heavy volume today.  My ABX October calls are big losers.  Even the snap back rally that will eventually take place won't be enough to save them.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll have to see how the trading week ends as it has been weak so far.  With the exception of yesterday, the Dow has been leading us lower and that isn't the most bearish of scenarios.  However my ideas have been off lately and that is something to consider as well.  Commodities are getting throw out the window here.  If you have a longer term perspective it wouldn't be a bad idea to put some money to work in that area.  But we are here to trade and patience is a better course of action at the moment.  If the S&P 500 continues lower for the next couple of days, the SPY August calls will be the preferred vehicle.  So we'll see.  We'll watch the overnight action in the foreign markets and finish off the week tomorrow.

Lower again today as the Dow fell 68 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  Poor action in the tech sector was the reason given for the decline today.  Nothing to worry about is my opinion as we are working off the recent short term overbought condition.  The technical indicators have turned lower but not drastically so.  I'm still looking for new all time highs for the S&P 500 in the August option cycle.  GE was off almost 1/4 on light volume.  Gold fell $10 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on still good volume.  ABX lost over 1/8 but did close off of the lows.  Volume very heavy here too.  Nothing to do but wait to sell my ABX October calls at this point.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The summation index has stalled here but should be heading back to the upside shortly.  With the option cycle just rolling over to the next month, premiums are high.  Tack on the extra week in the August cycle and you see that patience is your friend for now.  With all the recent volatility, it would not surprise me to see the doldrums appearing in the coming weeks.  I could be wrong.  Earnings are the driver for now.  Gold has yet to find a bottom and we'll see how low it can go.  ABX almost hit $7 today.  I still think that longer term investors can purchase ABX at these levels.  However this blog is about trading and my ABX call trade looks like it's going to be a loser.  Bad timing and bad tactics equals lost money.  We'll watch the overnight developments and take it from there.   

Some downside today and that's not unexpected.  The Dow fell 181 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative but not as much as a down 181 market would suggest.  The overall market is stronger than the Dow here and that's a positive.  I do not expect any kind of extended decline to happen.  We've had a nice run to the upside so some backing and filling before we head higher is in order.  If we get an oversold reading in the short term, the SPY calls will be in order.  GE was off almost 1/3 on summer average volume.  No trades here for now.  Gold fell a few bucks on the futures despite a decent drop in the US dollar.  That isn't bullish.  The gold shares tried to stabilize, with the XAU up 1 1/3 and GDX ahead by 1/3.  Volume remains off the charts heavy.  ABX was up almost a dime with the same crazy volume.  Blown out for the gold shares and in crash mode.  My ABX October calls are under water and probably not coming back.  I'll hold them for now and probably until the earnings report at least.  I would not be surprised to see some more downside first though.  Mentally I'm feeling bit tired.  The short term indicators for some of the major indices are starting to roll over.  My feeling is that they will not turn all the way down to oversold.  With the small stocks leading the way, the trend should and will be higher for the stock indexes.  It will not be a straight line up though.  Plenty of time in the August option cycle to make a trade but patience is advised for now.  Gold is trying to hold the $1100 area but it probably won't.  The gold shares have already collapsed.  If you have a long term perspective, buying the gold shares here will work in your favor.  They may go lower but most of the damage has already been done.  The time to get things is when nobody else wants them in this game.  We'll see if the overseas markets follow the Dow lower overnight.

The Dow rose 14 points today but came off of the highs in the final hour.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative on average volume.  So it was a strange technical session.  Short term overbought for the major stock averages.  Not a lot of economic data due this week but plenty of earnings.  With an extra week in the August option cycle there is no rush to trade the SPY options at the moment.  GE was off a dime on light volume.  No trades pending here as well.  The story today was gold or to be more accurate, the gold shares.  The spot gold price fell $25 on good volume.  This, despite the US dollar having only a slight gain on the day.  A report on Chinas gold holdings was the announced culprit.  The gold shares are crashing.  The XAU fell 5 1/5, while GDX dropped 1 2/3.  Volume was extreme.  ABX lost 15% of its value today, down 1 1/3 on drastic heavy volume.  The oversold technical indicators for the gold shares are off the charts.  My ABX October calls are decimated.  Big losses there.  We will probably get the August/September upside for the gold shares.  But for ABX instead of from the 11-10 level, it will probably be from the 6-7 level.  I'll hold onto the calls for now but this is definitely a cut the loss trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We are on the cusp of new highs for the S&P 500 and should get there this week.  A pullback first would not be a surprise.  The summation index continues higher and the overall trend is up.  We are no longer in a constant headline news mode ruling the averages.  Earnings should pave the way higher.  The gold shares are crashing so I suppose that you can sit back and watch the show.  I do have an order to purchase ABX outright lower from here but it isn't in my trading account.  ABX in the single digits is considered by me to be a longer term investment to be held, not traded.  Time should work for me there.  I doubt the largest gold producer will be going out of business.  I could be wrong but the odds are against that this time.  I consider this crash in the gold shares an opportunity but you really can't tell how low they will go.  The bounce back should be spectacular as well.  The action in the gold shares is reminiscent of March 2009 for stocks to me.  Blown out readings in many of the technical indicators.  Just look at the Gold/XAU ratio as an example.  We'll keep an eye on the action overnight and take it from there.  

The Dow took a breather today as the most watched index shed 33 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  A mixed session to be sure as the S&P 500 rose a couple of points while the NASDAQ hit a new all time high.  The summation index continues higher.  The small stocks are leading the way and that's bullish.  We are short term overbought and a pause is due.  But the trend is up and we are likely going to see higher prices now over the rest of the summer.  GE tacked on another 20 cents as the earnings were a bit better than expected.  It looks like holding on another day to the GE call trade would have worked out.  It is always easy to look back and say you should have done something else but it is a waste of time in this game.  You just have to keep moving forward.  Gold continues to fall as it broke the $1150 level this week.  The futures lost $11 as the US dollar was higher once again.  The gold shares got smacked as the XAU fell 2 2/3, while GDX lost 3/4.  ABX dropped almost 1/2 on very heavy volume.  It looks like a downside washout here for the gold shares.  My ABX October calls are already cut in half.  I probably did the wrong thing today and purchased some more of these calls at a lower strike price.  This is probably the case of throwing good money after bad on the heels of the trying to catch the falling knife in stock market jargon.  Normally I would not even think of doing this but the indicators are off the charts oversold.  Will there not be some kind of bounce between now and October?  I think that the answer is yes.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  All systems appear to be a go for higher stock prices moving forward.  The technicals on a medium term basis have turned back up for the major stock indices.  This past week was a strong one for higher prices adding to the usual positive expiration week positive bias.  The August option cycle has an extra week in it so there is no hurry for any positions there.  Purchasing the SPY calls at the end of last week/beginning of this week was the proper move.  Obviously one that I didn't make.  Focusing on the gold share calls was a bad idea, considering some of those indexes had already fallen out of the support area.  Combine that with the breakdown in silver and you can consider these signs that I did not pay attention to.  It could prove costly.  Selling GE ahead of the earnings might have been a response to already losing money in the first ABX October call trade.  Everything that you do in the game has a way of influencing results for the positive or the negative.  I still may have bailed out of the GE call trade regardless.  The issue I'm faced with now is concentrating on the ABX trades, which may get in the way of other ideas.  It isn't an easy game of trading and that takes care of weeding out some of the players.  I'll have a lot to consider over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest. 

Moving higher as the Dow gained 70 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  Some of the major stock indices hit all time highs today but not the S&P 500.  But that should happen in the days ahead.  The trend is up.  Declines, if there are any, can be bought.  GE was up over 1/4 on OK volume.  I decided to book the profit that I had here and not wait until tomorrow.  This already is looking like the wrong move.  I managed a 50% profit there.  We'll see what happens with the earnings tomorrow.  Gold fell another $5 today as the US dollar had another good session.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  ABX got crushed, losing 3/8 on heavy volume.  My ABX October calls were almost cut in half.  This trade has already blown up in my face.  Plenty of time left but ABX appears to be in a free fall.  Very oversold on all of the technical indicators.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm cutting things short today since it is getting rather late.  We'll watch what happens overnight and close out expiration week tomorrow.     

A pause in the action today as the Dow fell 3 points on summer average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues higher.  We aren't simply going to go up in a straight line but the trend has turned positive.  Weakness can be purchased in my opinion.  The economic data out today was in line with expectations.  The Fed didn't say anything unexpected and will conclude this procedure tomorrow.  We may get some gyrations in the next couple of days before expiration but I think the wholesale selling is done for now.  GE was up about 1/8 on light volume.  My GE July calls are showing a slight profit.  I'm still holding on for the earnings report on Friday, which will make or break this trade.  The technical indicators for GE have turned up on a short term basis and there is room to go higher there.  Anything can happen here.  Gold fell on a stronger US dollar.  The precious metal futures were off $5 and were lower than that during the trading session.  We have closed below the $1150 level.  The XAU fell 1 2/3 and GDX dropped 1/3.  Volume was better to the downside.  I did purchase some ABX October calls today.  They are showing a slight loss.  Oversold and staying there on a short and medium term basis for gold and the gold shares.  Todays trade could be the proverbial trying to catch a falling knife idea.  That never ends well.  However I was willing to take the chance here, so we'll see what happens.  ABX has broken the $10 level.  Earnings are due the first week in August.  Gold is showing no signs of stabilizing so this trade may simply just be a mistake.  We'll see.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The McClellan oscillator had a nice move higher from the recent lows and that is saying this rally has legs.  The weekly technical indicators for the major stock indices have turned around as well.  So I'm of the belief that a summer rally has begun.  Perhaps earnings will now be the catalyst for higher equity prices.  That's a guess as usual.  Waiting on GE earnings.  It's possible that gold and silver are about to break down here.  There is no buying interest and the indicators have rolled over again.  If that is the case, we'll probably know pretty soon and I'll have to cut the loss on the ABX trade that I put on today.  I'll be keeping an eye on things.  Looks like there is trouble in the streets of Greece so we'll have to see if that affects the markets.  I'll be watching what happens around the world overnight.  Tomorrows blog will be later than usual due to a scheduled commitment.

Up we go as the Dow gained 75 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving up.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock indices have all turned up and are moving higher.  The small stocks have shown relative strength and that's a positive.  The only caveat is the light volume but it is summer.  The positive expiration bias appears to be in place.  I'd expect new all time highs to appear as we move forward.  It won't be a straight line up but the tide has turned in my opinion.  GE gained almost 20 cents on light volume.  My GE July calls are now showing a very slight profit.  I'll still be holding until the Friday earnings release unless we get some crazy upside in the next 2 days.  Highly unlikely.  Gold was little changed on the session despite a weaker US dollar.  The retail sales report today was less than expected and the dollar sold off a bit.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses again on light volume.  The gold shares remain oversold on a short and medium term basis.  I am still considering the ABX October calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It seems that Greece and China don't matter anymore after 4 days up in row.  We're due for a pause at the least.  Perhaps the Yellen appearance before Congress tomorrow will throw some cold water on this parade.  But I don't think that it will matter going forward.  The trend is up and perhaps this is the summer rally that I was looking for a month ago.  The technicals are pointing higher.  Still no love for gold.  Perhaps the malaise here will simply carry on.  It will be risky to try the gold share calls.  But what trade doesn't have risk?  I'm keeping an eye on things.  My guess is that the dollar will rally on the Fed testimony tomorrow.  We also have the Fed beige book.  So it will be a day filled with the Fed.  We'll see what happens in the foreign markets tonight and see what tomorrow brings.

More upside to begin expiration week as the Dow climbed 217 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is now moving higher.  I believe that we are back in the buy weakness mode.  The decline has run its course in my opinion.  The volume to the upside here has been light, so a return to test the recent lows could be in the cards.  However prices are moving higher and we cannot deny that.  Too late for the SPY July calls though.  I could be wrong.  GE was up 20 cents on light volume.  My GE July calls are still losers but not as much as they were.  Waiting on the earnings due Friday here.  That is what this trade has turned into.  Gold was off slightly on the futures despite the big gain in the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  The gold shares did turn around today, after selling off early.  I'm still looking at the October gold share calls.  Today was potentially the day for the ABX calls as ABX ran down to $9.75.  I might try and purchase the October calls here tomorrow or Wednesday.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market is still in the headline risk mode but I feel like the worst is behind us.  Greece still has another deadline for it's bailout on Wednesday.  This is an ongoing soap opera.  I think that only a Greek exit from the euro would stir things up again at this point.  Unless the Chinese stock market starts to crash again.  We've got Yellen in front of Congress in a couple days but I do not expect any surprises there.  Earnings are on tap from the major banks in the coming week.  They could get things moving one way or the other.  I was cautious as of last week but with the turnaround in the summation index and the major average technical indicators moving up now, the all clear signal has been given.  It's possible that the gold shares simply followed the market higher today.  Nothing has changed fundamentally there.  Still oversold on a short and medium term basis.  The options are certainly cheap enough but if continue to simply decline, that won't matter.  I'll consider this idea again overnight.  We'll watch the overnight action and go from there. 

A relief short covering rally today as the Dow gained 211 points to finish off a wild week.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive and the volume was light.  The China stock market snap back along with the potential Greek deal were the reasons given today for the rise.  We'll take what we can get.  Perhaps we'll know by Monday if the Greek deal is for real but that saga won't all of a sudden go away.  As for China, half the stocks on their exchange aren't even open for trading.  But considering the US market price action yesterday, today was encouraging.  But we're still in the headline risk situation.  I'd like to think that we are putting in a bottom here at the 200 day moving average.  Perhaps the summation index can start to move higher again but until it actually does, we don't have the all clear just yet.  GE was up 1/4 and the volume was light.  Looks like I'll be holding on to the GE July calls until the earnings are out in a week.  They are still showing a loss.  Gold bounced around today but finished the session little changed despite a drop in the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses again on light volume.  The gold shares remain oversold on both a short and medium term basis.  I'm still looking at the October calls for the precious metal shares.  I may start placing my order next week.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  This was quite a crazy week in the markets.  Back and forth we went with volatility in the forefront.  However where we go from here is what matters most.  Option expiration week is coming up but I'm not sure the usual positive bias will appear.  Plenty of economic data is on the agenda along with Yellen chattering in front of Congress.  Not to mention the ongoing global concerns that plague the environment at the moment.  So attempting to trade the SPY next week will be treacherous.  I will probably have to wait until things calm down and we get a valid technical set up.  I think that we will be moving higher next week but that is strictly a guess.  Obviously, anything could happen.  We'll once again have to follow the headlines over the weekend.  Gold and the gold shares remain mired in a downtrend.  The fundamentals are negative.  There is no interest there.  The time to buy things is when nobody else wants them.  We are certainly at that stage with the precious metals complex.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to determine if now is the time.  Otherwise I'll most likely be holding the GE July calls until the earnings on Friday and staying out of any SPY July trades next week.  Plenty to ponder this weekend.  It's Friday afternoon in the summer and time for a rest. 

Another volatile trading session as the Dow started the day up well over 200 points only to give most of it back and finish with a gain of only 33 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is heading lower.  The price action today isn't a positive.  So now this Sunday is the next last chance for Greece to stay in the euro.  But that could change as it has already in the past and the effect is that markets are still being held hostage.  I almost want to say that you can throw the technicals out the window in this type of game.  The short term indicators have rolled back to oversold and staying there.  It appears the path of least resistance is lower.  GE added 1/8 on average volume.  We were much higher early here as well.  My GE July calls are still losers.  Gold didn't do much today as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX were mixed with slight fractional moves.  Volume was light.  Oversold and staying that way as well here.  This condition is what I'm afraid might plague the major stock indices for some time.  I'm still on the hunt for the October gold share calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Tomorrow should be lower for the stock indexes ahead of the Sunday headline about the Greek drama.  This is getting to be like a broken record.  Eventually this will be out of the way but we aren't there yet.  Remain cautious and once again the sidelines aren't necessarily a bad place to be.  I'm still holding the GE July calls but I am certainly not confident that this trade will work itself out.  Getting close and going through the zero line on the summation index has once again proven to be a traumatic event.  We aren't finished yet.  Rallies are not holding and we continue to lower levels.  The market will be a buy at some point but we haven't found that area yet.  It is still a headline driven environment.  Silver has made a 2 day comeback after breaking down from the consolidation zone.  It's something to keep an eye on.  SSEC had a nice gain yesterday but we will have to see if it was just a one day wonder.  ABX looks like it's heading to $10 and I've got my eye on the October calls there.  There is plenty to pay attention to this summer.  No doldrums in July, that is for sure.  So we'll see what comes out of the foreign arena tonight and close out a crazy market week tomorrow.

Crazy summer days as the NYSE had to shut down for 3 hours today because of a computer glitch.  This is the world that we live in.  Whatever we did yesterday was effectively erased as the Dow fell 261 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  The short term technicals have turned back down for the major stock indices.  Greece, China and now the US are all causing problems.  I'm beginning to believe that we are at a point where the market is about to crack.  The US market has held up well despite the troubles around the world.  But after today, you can't say that anymore.  Throw in the proximity to the summation index zero line and it's a recipe for trouble.  I could be wrong.  GE was off almost 60 cents on average volume.  The uptrend line form January on the daily candlestick chart has been decisively broken.  My GE July calls are now losers.  This looks like it will be a cut the loss trade unless there is a dramatic turnaround soon.  But that is highly doubtful with this market environment.  Waiting another week for the earnings is probably not a good idea.  Gold rose about $10 today on the futures as the US dollar was weaker.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on lighter volume today.  Oversold and staying there for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  Yesterdays market action gave some hopes for the bulls but today that has been wiped out.  I do not see anything that would change the bearish scenario in the short term.  Caution is advised and the sidelines isn't a bad place to be.  It is looking like a worldwide sell off of stocks and commodities.  A universal margin call if you will.  We'll know when it's over when we get some type of panic sell off.  Hasn't happened yet.  The Fed minutes were a non event today, so you know we're not in the normal market circumstances.  The safe havens of gold and the US dollar are not attracting money like they usually do.  So it is a dangerous time to be playing this game as usual.  No summer doldrums so far for this year.  We'll keep an eye on all the headlines tonight and see what kind of surprises we get tomorrow.

A one day reversal to the upside today as the Dow gained 93 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  We were off 200 points within the first couple hours of trading today.  It was quite an impressive comeback.  Perhaps we now have an all clear for some more upside but the Greek drama remains.  Greece now has until Sunday to work out a deal.  Except nobody knows how that is going to happen.  The TRAN turned around today and the small stocks did as well.  The short term technical indicators have rolled back to the upside.  But we are still in a headline driven environment.  GE turned around as well and was up 16 cents on OK volume.  The GE July calls that I purchased yesterday now have a slight gain.  Gold was off over $15 today and we dropped below the important $1150 level at one point.  The US dollar had a good session but did come off of its highs.  Commodities in general took a hit today.  The XAU fell 3 points and GDX lost 7/8.  Volume was heavy.  Silver broke support today and could be leading the precious metals complex lower.  I'm still looking at the October gold share calls but will have to careful here because we could be in for a washout to the downside.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll have to see if the stock indices can build on the todays turnaround.  We've got the Feds beige book tomorrow as maybe Greece can stay in the background for  few days.  Doubtful, but we'll see.  We also have the Chinese stock market falling apart as well.  Todays price action should lead to higher prices in the near term though.  But the market will go where it wants.  8 days left in the July option cycle.  We will have to see what the summation index has to say.  I don't think todays action turned it back up yet.  But the market turnaround was encouraging.  Gold needs to hold on here or we could be heading much lower.  That's a guess as usual but with the breakdown in silver today, gold probably isn't too far behind.  We will keep an eye on things there.  We'll see what happens overseas tonight and take it from there.

Another day, another Greek sell off as the Dow fell 46 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were not quite 2 to 1 negative.  We sold off hard on the open, with an over 150 point loss but it wasn't as bad as it could have been.  We spent the rest of the session coming back.  The summation index continues lower.  Markets around the globe sold off on the Greek referendum results.  It's still a headline driven market.  However given the uncertainties, the market held up rather well.  Perhaps the market knows more than we do.  I'm not trying any SPY trades here.  GE dropped almost 1/2 on light volume.  I did place an order for the GE July calls and it was filled.  So we'll see what happens.  The relative strength for GE today was poor.  But I have liked this technical set up for a while and today finally have entered the next trade.  I may hold on until the earnings due on expiration Friday.  Unless this thing tanks and then I'll have to take the loss.  Gold rose $6 and the US dollar was a bit higher today.  Not exactly a huge flight to safety.  The gold shares found some life again as the XAU rose 7/8 and GDX gained 1/4.  Volume was average.  ABX had a strong session on better volume.  I'm not going to chase the gold shares here.  But it is possible that we have put in the bottom.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So we continue with the Greek drama and what will happen tomorrow?  It is really impossible to predict what will happen.  The way the stock market has held up though perhaps means that things will be getting better for prices before they get worse.  That's a guess as usual.  Technically the major stock indices remain oversold on a short term basis.  Staying on the sidelines is an option and perhaps the best strategy at the moment.  We are still in a zone where things could fall apart.  I am trying the GE trade here but it appears that if it doesn't hold now, the uptrend line in place on the daily chart will be violated.  We just nudged through it today.  So tomorrow it will be important for GE to hang in there.  Gold and the dollar did not react as strongly as one would suspect today.  Perhaps the theory of Grexit has already been priced in.  But tomorrow could be another story.  We'll see how the foreign markets do overnight and await the next headline from Europe.       

Really just a waiting game today as the Dow fell 27 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The employment report came in about where expected and wasn't a market event as it usually is.  The stock indices are still being held hostage by Greece.  The vote there supposedly on whether or not to stay in the euro is Sunday.  And then what?  How long will it take to count the votes and there still has to be some kind of deal on the debt situation there regardless of the vote.  I took the cautious approach and did not make any trades before the long weekend here.  We are still short term oversold on the major stock indexes.  The summation index is trying to turn around here.  GE was up 1/4 on light volume.  Two weeks to go in the July option cycle with earnings due on expiration Friday.  I still like the technical set up here and will get some calls if the price of GE hits the uptrend line on the daily chart at around 26.50.  Gold fell $5 on the futures, while the US dollar was a bit lower.  The gold shares found some buyers though.  The XAU rose 1 1/4 and GDX gained 1/3.  Volume was average.  This is the first time in a while that we have seen the gold shares outperform gold.  I'm still a fan of the ABX October gold share calls.  But it is possible that GDX may be the safer play if there is such a thing.  Something to think about.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I really think that the market is going to head higher from here regardless of the Greek drama.  We're oversold and due for a summer rally to start.  Plus the summation index appears to possibly be putting in a double bottom here near the zero line.  That would mean the imminent collapse that I thought would occur at the beginning of the week isn't going to happen.  I think that the fact that we saw absolutely no downside follow through from a down 350 market tells us so.  I could be wrong.  I think that next week I'll be looking to purchase some GE calls and perhaps the ABX calls as well.  The market will still be at the mercy of headline risk.  But the news could very well be viewed as positive and a relief rally with short covering could ensue.  That is really the scenario that I think will happen.  If traders wanted to sell they probably did it before this holiday weekend.  That's my best guess at the moment.  There isn't a lot of economic data due next week.  Not that it matters in an event driven environment like this.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend along with watching the headlines out of Europe.  It's a long summertime holiday weekend.  Time for a break.   

We started the month off with a nice gain as the Dow rose 138 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues lower but could turn around with a positive day tomorrow.  It is beginning to look like Mondays decline was a one day wonder.  The market is shrugging off the turmoil in Greece.  Anything can happen with the vote in Greece over the weekend but it looks like the market has other things on its mind.  We'll get the employment report tomorrow.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages are starting to turn up from the oversold region.  GE gained almost a dime on average volume.  I did place another overnight order for the July calls but it wasn't filled.  I still think that I'm going to attempt this trade in the next couple of weeks if the option premiums get to where I'd like them.  The technical set up remains intact.  Gold was off a few bucks on the futures as the US dollar had another good day.  The XAU dropped 1 3/4, while GDX fell 1/2.  Volume was average.  The gold shares appear to be breaking down here and that can't be good for gold.  But I'd still like to try the ABX October calls at some point here in July.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm getting the feeling that the market is going to go higher here.  A 350 point loss with no follow through is not common.  If we break down tomorrow, then this idea is wrong.  But I can see a scenario where the Greek vote is to stay in the euro and the markets rally on Monday.  We'll have to get through the employment report first though.  So we'll see how the market does tomorrow and decide what to do from there.  The employment report could have an effect on gold as well.  A good number should help the US dollar and therefore depress gold.  Or vice versa depending on the data.  But I must say that things are not looking good for the precious metals and the fundamentals remain bearish.  Then why attempt a trade with the calls?  Things do not stay down forever but more importantly the gold shares are oversold on a short and medium term basis.  The probability of some type of advance form these levels is better than 50% in my opinion.  All we can do is put the odds in our favor because the markets as usual will go where they want.  We'll watch what happens overnight, get the employment report tomorrow and then close out a shortened holiday week.

The market stopped going down today as the Dow gained 23 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues lower.  The markets are hostage to the Greek drama.  With a potential vote on the euro there not due until Sunday, you get the idea of the situation that we're in.  Oversold and staying there technically for the major market averages.  It is not impossible to trade here but it is a guessing game with the headline effect in play.  You will want to be long at some point but nobody knows when that point will be.  I'll probably not try the SPY July calls at this rate.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was average.  I did place an overnight order for some GE July calls but it wasn't filled.  I'm willing to try the calls here because the technical set up is in place to get long.  What I mean by that is on the weekly charts we had a high volume breakout from a consolidation zone and we are now falling back to test the zone.  It should hold and GE should move higher from there.  Timing is the key as usual.  Gold was off $7 today as the US dollar was higher.  No flight to safety for gold and that is a negative despite being oversold on a short and medium term basis.  The XAU and GDX continue with fractional losses.  Gold, silver and the precious metal shares all are on the verge of breaking down out of their congestion zones on the weekly charts.  I am still considering the ABX October calls though for the seasonal rally trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The question is what to do here and there are no easy answers.  You can only guess which way the Greek vote will go if we get that far.  We also have a long holiday weekend coming up in the US.  The McClellan oscillator was in the area that it has bounced from recently after yesterday.  If today was all the bounce we get, then we're heading lower.  The summation index is passing through the zero line and that's trouble as we have seen.  I'm remaining cautious here and will probably only attempt the GE trade in the next couple of sessions.  Beginning of a new month tomorrow so usually there would be some positive money flows.  But anything goes in this current state of affairs.  The employment report on Friday will only be a sideshow in my opinion.  Yesterday the overnight action was positive and that helped stem the decline.  We'll see how it goes tonight.  Interesting times.

Well, so much for the summer doldrums.  The Dow fell 350 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 10 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower and about to go through the zero line.  This area is rarely breached and when it is, the market falls apart.  That is what we have going on here.  Crash is another term folks like to use but it seems events are more controlled these days.  The Greek drama took a turn for the worse.  I'll be the first to say that I did not see that coming.  I figured we would get the usual last minute deal and be done with it.  I also thought that the summation index would turn around before it broke the zero line.  Obviously, I was wrong.  At least I didn't buy any calls last week.  GE was off almost 1/2 on good volume.  I did place a couple orders here for the July calls but they were not filled.  I may try again tomorrow but the risk in getting long anything here is very high.  That said, this could be an opportunity for a decent trade if the timing is correct.  But I must admit in a headline driven market environment, it will be like playing with fire.  Gold could only manage a $5 gain on the futures despite the turmoil and the fact that the US dollar got crushed today as well.  If this is all gold can do in times like these then perhaps not trading gold at all is the correct path going forward.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on summer average volume.  Why both gold and the US dollar didn't have big rallies today is the question.  My thought is that what we are seeing is a worldwide margin call, with players selling whatever they can to cover their exposure.  That's a guess as usual.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired after a volatile trading session.  But where do we go from here?  The Greek drama has the markets full attention and it won't be settled for at least a week as of today.  Trading in this atmosphere is dangerous.  If you can get long close to the bottom, you'll do fine.  But nobody knows where the bottom is.  We are oversold and staying there.  I'll be checking the charts tonight but we are in no mans land.  I would still like to try the GE July calls though.  The technical set up is textbook so far but could be negated due to the market unrest.  I probably should have the discipline to just step aside here and let the market settle itself out.  I will most likely attempt this trade in the coming days but not with a lot of money.  However my ideas lately and my take on the market situation have been off the mark lately.  We get the end of the month and quarter tomorrow but it probably won't matter.  Plus the employment report on Friday.  The market is controlled by whatever happens in Europe at the moment.  We'll see if the foreign markets continue lower overnight as we are held hostage by the headlines overseas.

A day of indecision as the Dow gained 56 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  It was a mixed bag as the small stocks were weaker on the day.  That's not a positive.  It appears we have some early end of the month and quarter moves going on.  I did place another order for some SPY July calls but it wasn't filled.  I'm a believer that weakness can be bought on Monday if there is any.  The Greek saga should be settled over the weekend.  We may just rally on the open when the market reconvenes.  GE was up a nickel on light volume.  I put in an order for the July calls here as well and wasn't filled.  Perhaps I'll try again next week.  Gold was little changed today but did come off of its lows.  The US dollar was up a bit.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  Still no interest here.  I am going to try the ABX October calls at some point.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Earlier in the week I propositioned that Monday would be the ideal time to try the SPY July calls.  Perhaps the market will actually cooperate this time around.  We are not completely oversold on the major averages as the short term technical indicators are merely mid-range.  However one of my other short term tools will be giving a buy signal if we are negative on Monday.  I'll consider my options over the weekend.  A short holiday week coming up with the end of the month and quarter thrown in.  Plus the employment report on Thursday of next week.  So there will be a lot for the market to digest.  The summation index is still heading down but I expect it to turn back up in this area.  I could be wrong.  Gold remains unattractive now even with the Greek dilemma.  The fundamentals here are negative with the stronger US dollar and the Fed looking to raise rates.  However I will be looking for the seasonal rally to take place in roughly the July-September time frame.  The gold shares are oversold on both the short and medium term.  They are unloved and look like they are about to break below the recent nine month consolidation zone.  If that happens things could get worse in a hurry.  Hasn't happened yet but it's something to keep a close eye on.  So there will be plenty of things to ponder over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

Another weak session as the Dow fell 75 points on summer average volume.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is now heading lower.  Still no resolution for Greece and the next meeting is this weekend.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages have rolled over but they are still in the overbought zone.  I did place an overnight order for some SPY July calls but it wasn't filled and I canceled it during the session.  Weakness in the final hour the past 2 days isn't a positive.  However I will maybe attempt this trade again tomorrow.  GE was off almost 1/4 on light volume.  The techncials have rolled over here as well.  We are at the 50 day moving average here.  The July calls here are still on my radar.  Gold again was off just a bit as was the US dollar.  If Greece is about to blow up, wouldn't you expect to see a rise in gold?  Maybe I'm just not seeing things correctly.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on better volume.  I'm still interested in getting some ABX October calls.  I suppose when the weekly charts are oversold I'll give them a shot.  Getting there but not yet.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Could the market fall apart here on a Greek debacle over the weekend?  Well yes, it could because it is an unknown if it happens and the market likes certainty.  I guess the question is whether it will or not.  We need to stick to the technical indicators though.  The TRAN just broke to a fresh low.  But the small stocks are holding up better here.  The summation index is moving lower but is in an area that it has turned around in the past.  So we have a few conflicting signals and that makes the trading tougher than usual.  If we do head lower tomorrow, I'll probably try the SPY July calls again.  But the sidelines may just be the best place to be.  A case can be made to let this Greek drama play out and then trade from there.  Or I could simply focus on the GE trade only.  I'll consider the various scenarios overnight and try to come up with a profitable strategy.  We'll see if the overseas markets follow the US lower overnight.

Stocks took a hit today as the Dow fell 178 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative.  This should move the summation index back down again but the pattern here appears more sideways to me.  Perhaps more of the Greek drama fears again.  But we can't just dismiss todays price action.  The overall market wasn't as weak as the Dow which is a plus.  But the TRAN got clobbered today and is about to make a new low.  The ideal scenario would be sideways to lower into Monday and then purchase some SPY July calls.  However the market rarely obliges you.  GE was off almost 1/3 on average volume.  Perhaps there will be a chance for the July calls here after all.  Gold was off a bit on the futures as was the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX were little changed again on light volume.  There's a chance that ABX is putting in a bottom here but I'm inclined to wait for lower prices.  Mentally I'm tired as I did not sleep much last night.  It isn't a good idea to trade in a slower mental condition.  The major stock indices are still overbought.  We closed on the low of the session and that's bearish heading into tomorrow.  The revised GDP final number was a non event.  We've been in a trading range for the past 4 months.  A breakout is overdue.  I'm still a believer in new all time highs coming but I could be wrong.  I'm going to have to look things over again tonight and come up with a game plan for tomorrow.  Perhaps the sidelines will have some appeal but we'll have to see what happens overnight.  Gold was still weak today so there wasn't any apparent flight to safety.  A good nights sleep and a fresh start tomorrow is the best course of action in my mind.  We'll see what unfolds in the foreign markets and go from there.

Not much going on today as the Dow gained 24 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is heading higher grudgingly.  There really isn't much to say about todays price action.  In my mind the trend is still up and I'd like to get some SPY July calls if we see a pullback.  The short term indicators are overbought for the major stock indices but that doesn't mean that they can't stay that way.  Greece has yet to resolve itself but that is supposed to happen soon.  Perhaps we'll get a sell the news event.  That's a guess as usual.  GE was up 1/8 and the volume was summer average.  It doesn't look like I'll get a chance at the July calls here but we'll see.  Gold was off $7 on the futures as the US dollar gained a full point today.  Both the XAU and GDX barely moved today on light volume.  The gold shares are oversold and on the verge of breaking medium term support on the weekly charts.  A breakdown will probably take the October gold share call trade off the table.  But it hasn't happened yet.  Gold is still above the $1150 level, which I feel is the key support at this point.  However the fundamental picture for gold here is negative in my opinion.  I'll keep an eye on developments going forward.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Although we are in an overbought market environment, I'm still leaning bullish and I'd still like to own some SPY calls.  I do believe that we will break out to new all time highs on the S&P 500 during the July option cycle.  I'm remaining patient for the gold share trade at this time.  We watch the foreign markets overnight and see the reaction to the final GDP number tomorrow.
  

Back to the upside post expiration as the Dow gained 103 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving sideways as we have yet to have a solid break higher here.  But I do believe that it will be coming.  I'd still like to try the SPY July calls at some point.  However the short term technical indicators for the major stock indices are overbought.  We are also moving day to day with the situation in Greece.  Supposedly that problem will be solved by the end of the week.  GE was up 18 cents on light volume.  We'll need to see a run back to the bottom of its sideways channel in order to attempt the July calls here.  Gold futures fell $17 today on a positive US dollar and the good news on Greece.  The XAU shed a point and GDX lost 1/3.  Volume was light.  The gold shares bounce of last week looks false and we are heading lower.  We are getting medium term oversold and the time to buy the October gold share calls is approaching.  I'm still looking at the ABX calls as the vehicle of choice.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A good start to the week for stocks but we'll need to see a pullback to get long.  Otherwise this will be another missed trade.  The small stocks continue to lead the way here and that's a positive.  Not a lot of economic data out this week.  The final GDP revision on Wednesday could be a mover.  However with the beginning of summer the doldrums can appear at any time.  The trading is never easy and sluggish markets don't help the matter.  The daily gold candlestick chart has a bearish pattern after todays price action.  A resolution of the Greek drama would probably put further pressure on the precious metal.  Patience is still advised here.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and see what tomorrow brings.

A downside expiration as the Dow fell 100 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative but not as much as a down 100 market would suggest.  The summation index could turn back down after today or perhaps it is moving sideways.  This could be the technical snap back that I am looking for.  However with the unsettled situation in Greece, there is a chance that it is more.  And that is the problem here.  The market is susceptible to headline risk.  The short term technicals are more overbought than oversold at this point.  I'm still leaning bullish here though.  GE was off 1/8 and volume was expiration heavy.  The Bollinger bands here on the daily chart are getting so tight that a breakout one way or the other is imminent.  I still think the resolution will be to the upside and I still like the July calls here.  Gold was pretty much flat on the session and the US dollar had a mild gain.  The XAU was off 1 3/4, while GDX lost 1/2.  Volume was average as the gold shares had poor relative strength vs. gold today.  Not sure exactly what that means but it could simply be expiration related.  With the uncertainty in Greece, I would have expected more of a flight to safety for gold and the US dollar.  As I've said before, perhaps the market knows more than we do.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm going to have to go over all the charts this weekend to come up with a strategy for next week.  There's another meeting about the Greek tragedy on Monday.  I don't know how long this saga will last this time.  The markets are being held hostage.  But it will get resolved one way or the other eventually.  The RUT hit a new high yesterday.  With the small stocks out performing and the summation index in a zone where it has turned around in the past, I can't be too bearish here.  I still think that a summer rally is in the cards.  I'll probably be looking at the SPY July calls and the GE July calls as well.  But those decisions will have to come over the weekend.  The recent bounce for gold stalled today and the gold shares traded lower.  I'm going to remain patient there for now.  The ABX October calls remain on the radar but the purchase will be put off until they get short term oversold again.  This trade remains viable as long as gold holds the $1150 level.  Plenty to ponder in the next couple of days.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Moving higher as the Dow gained 180 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  Todays action should  turn the summation index back to the upside.  The down trend line of the last four weeks in the S&P 500 has been broken to the upside on good volume.  Declines can be bought in my opinion.  Technically I'll be looking for a snap back to this line to get some SPY July calls.  The Greece situation wasn't resolved and the meetings will now be ongoing.  Expect some type of resolution there.  This is the beginning of the summer rally in my mind.  I am hoping it is not too late to profit from it.  GE was up 1/3 on good volume.  May have missed this July call trade but we'll see.  Earnings are due the day of the July option expiration.  Gold moved higher as the futures gained $25 but some of that was from the aftermarket yesterday.  The US dollar was lower today but did finish off of the lows for the session.  The XAU added 7/8 and GDX rose 1/4.  Volume was lighter than yesterday.  I expected more upside here out of the gold shares considering the gains in gold itself.  So perhaps the October call trade still could work.  The ideal timing for this purchase would be sometime in July.  That's my best guess at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It looks like buying the June SPY calls on Monday would have been the proper strategy.  But it doesn't matter now.  The bigger picture has stocks turning higher here and I think for more than just a week.  The TRAN had a nice move higher today as well.  So I feel that call buying for July is the right move from here.  The proper timing will be one of the keys as usual.  I'm probably going to buy some SPY July calls if we get a move back towards the broken downtrend line.  If that doesn't occur then I will have to look for something else.  GE remains on the radar as well but it isn't as volatile as we all know.  I'm still being patient for the gold share trade at this time.  So there you have it.  We'll watch what happens overnight and close out the week with expiration Friday tomorrow.   

We got the Fed out of the way and the market liked what it heard.  The Dow rose 31 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  We were higher during the session but it was a plus day.  I'm still bullish here.  Once we get Greece out of the way, I think we're heading to new all time highs.  That should be resolved tomorrow but we'll see.  I could be wrong but I think the summation index is about to turn around.  The short term technicals for the major stock averages are mid-range.  GE was up a nickel on good volume.  The July calls here remain on the radar.  Still waiting on an oversold condition for purchase.  Gold got a bounce from the Fed as the US dollar dropped.  The precious metal futures were down during the regular session but came back around $8 in the aftermarket.  The XAU gained 1 1/2, while GDX rose 1/2 and the volume was good.  Perhaps now is the time for the gold shares but we'll have to see how the rest of the week plays out.  ABX had a solid gain on good volume.  I'm not going to chase anything here, as going out to the October options gives us the benefit of time.  If we have missed it we'll look for something else.  Too early to tell.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It's possible that the market is still trying to sort things out here but I'm a believer in higher prices going forward.  The TRAN did continue lower today though.  If the current Greece problem isn't solved tomorrow, would that lead to a sell-off?  Always questions in the game.  Perhaps todays rally wasn't as robust due to the lingering uncertainty.  But that's a guess as usual.  With mid-range technical indicators we can't be certain about much.  We also have the summer market conditions to deal with, which means less players and slower trading.  That should probably kick in after this week.  We'll watch the foreign action overnight and see if gold has any follow through to the upside.  All eyes will be on the Greece and we'll watch the market reaction.    

Moving higher now as the Dow gained 113 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is heading lower but I do believe it is about to turn around.  We've got the Fed tomorrow and even if we head lower, I think it's a buying opportunity.  I'm now looking at the SPY July calls.  The risk in the June calls is probably too high for me now with only 3 days left before expiration.  But you never know.  We've still got Greece on Thursday to get through.  However it is most likely some kind of deal will come through.  But it is a problem that will probably never be solved.  GE finished flat on the session after selling off early.  Volume was summer average.  I still like the GE July calls at some point but would prefer to see a solid oversold reading.  Gold was off $5 on the futures as the US dollar was up a bit.  Things could get moving here on the Fed tomorrow.  The XAU fell a point and GDX shed 1/4.  Volume was average.  Patience is the course of action here for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The TRAN was lower today and you never know how the market will react to the Fed.  But I do think we are at a spot where the summation index will turn around.  Now I could be wrong and we head down for another leg but I don't think so.  If we do get some weakness tomorrow, I'm probably going to try the SPY July calls.  I am looking for some type of summer rally to begin and take us to new all time highs.  The RUT has held up well here and could be leading the way.  So we'll see.  Gold remains above $1150 and that is the level to watch in my opinion.  The lack of a decent rally in the face of the Greek situation could be all you need to know about gold here.  The gold shares are oversold but have remained that way for a couple of weeks.  So we'll see how the markets react to the Fed tomorrow and perhaps try the SPY July calls.

A downside start to expiration week as the Dow fell 107 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  We sold off early pretty hard and made back half of it during the session.  I would still like to try the SPY June calls but early today was probably the ideal time to buy them.  I do think that the summation index will turn around this week.  But the technical set-up to trade here is not ideal as things could still go either way.  GE was off 18 cents on average volume.  Getting to short term oversold but not there yet.  Perhaps the GE July calls will be the next trade.  Gold found some interest as the futures rose $6.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight gains on summer average volume.  I would have expected more interest in both gold and the US dollar with the questions coming out of Greece.  Perhaps the market knows more than we do.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Greece is stealing the spotlight once again and the next meeting to resolve that is on Thursday.  I'm guessing a deal will get done and the markets will rally.  We have the Fed on Wednesday to deal with as well.  So it should be a somewhat volatile trading week, with expiration thrown in there too.  I could just sit on the sidelines myself but you don't make any money like that.  I might try the SPY June calls if we head lower to test the recent lows tomorrow.  But it would be very risky.  The best trades are when things line up properly and that isn't really the case at this time.  I do want some of the GE July calls though at some point soon.  If there is a deal for Greece on Thursday, there won't be any reason to buy gold.  If the Fed is hawkish with its statement on Wednesday, it's another reason not to buy gold.  Trades need to be technically based and right now it's a news driven environment.  That said, I still might try something tomorrow.  I'll go over everything again tonight and then decide.  But as I said earlier, this morning may have been the best time to get some SPY June calls.  So we'll see.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and go from there.

Back to the downside to close out the week as the Dow fell 140 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative.  It appears that the market is still trying to make up its mind here.  The short term technical are mid-range.  I still may try the SPY June calls again but the risk would be pretty high and the signal, if it comes, wouldn't be as strong as the last one.  Greece is back in the news and so we may just have to wait for that to be resolved before we get any real direction.  GE was off 1/8, very light volume there as well.  Gold was off just a bit today as was the US dollar.  We are not seeing a flight to safety yet with the recent, back in the news again Greece situation.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses with no volume.  The lack of interest here is obvious.  The ABX October calls are still on my radar.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not exactly sure where we go from here but I'm leaning towards a bullish conclusion to all the sideways movement.  The summation index is heading lower but it is in a zone where unless we get a complete collapse, it should turn around.  I do not think that the market will fall apart here.  I could be wrong.  We could not improve on the huge up day Wednesday and that could be a problem.  Technically things could go either way.  Guessing is not a winning strategy.  Maybe if the 50 day RSI on the S&P 500 gets oversold early next week, I'll try the SPY June calls again.  But things were lined up better for the last trade.  It will be options expiration week so perhaps the usual positive bias will show up.  GE has been moving sideways since the breakout in April.  The Bollinger bands have contracted which implies a pretty good move is on the way.  As usual, the direction is the question.  I think GE will be moving higher but it isn't oversold at the moment.  The gold shares remain oversold without any bounce and the volume says nobody is interested.  With summer fast approaching, the lack of participants in all the markets is something to consider.  Light volume can skew things on way or the other but not really mean anything.  Probably treading lightly is the best course of action unless there is a solid technical set up.  There will be plenty to think about over the weekend and we'll have to keep an eye out for any headlines.  News event markets are not easy to trade but that is the nature of the game.  We've got the Fed to deal with next week as well.  But it's Friday afternoon now and time for a break.

We did get some follow through today as the Dow rose 39 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still moving down.  Retail sales were a touch better than expected.  We rallied for the first half hour and drifted lower for the rest of the session.  The short term technical are now mid-range for the S&P 500.  I still think we are heading higher.  I did sell the SPY June calls today for a bit over 100% profit.  I could have had a better exit as well but at least I stuck to the short term trade time frame.  I may even try these again before expiration.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was light.  I'm still considering the July calls here.  Gold was off around $5 on the futures as the US dollar rose off of the retail sales report.  The XAU lost 1 1/3, while GDX shed about 1/4.  Volume remains light here as there isn't any interest in the gold shares.  The gold shares are relatively weaker here and that is not a bullish sign.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The SPY June trade went OK.  The entry and exit good have been better.  However that trade is over and doesn't matter now.  If the technicals line up properly in the next 6 days, I may try this trade again.  I do think that the summation index is going to turn around here and start to move higher.  Perhaps the July calls would be a better choice but they are expensive.  I'll have to look things over tonight.  Inflation data tomorrow but next week we get the Fed and the markets should move on that.  Gold is not doing much and remains uninteresting.  But I am probably going to try the October ABX calls if gold gets to $1150 or so.  Whether it can hold that level will determine the fate of that trade.  We'll watch what goes on overnight and close out the week tomorrow. 

The expected bounce arrived as the Dow rose 236 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still heading lower.  I'm not sure if today was simply a one day wonder or the start of something that leads to new all time highs.  I'd like to think that it's the latter.  My SPY June calls are doing good despite the poor timing on the entry.  I perhaps should of just sold them today though.  We are right at a short term down trend line that began about 3 weeks ago for the S&P 500.  We'll move off of the retail sales data tomorrow.  GE was up almost 1/3 on average volume.  It appears that I've missed this trade for the July calls.  However the market goes where it wants and things could turn around tomorrow.  Gold was up almost $10 on the futures as the US dollar had a weak session.  The XAU was up 7/8 and GDX rose an 1/8 on light volume.  The gold shares didn't really follow gold higher and that isn't bullish.  NEM has turned into an under performer now.  I'm going to try and remain patient on the gold shares but do want the October calls here at some point.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So we got the bounce and now what?  It was technically expected and it showed up.  But where do we go from here?  I'm hoping for some upside follow through tomorrow but anything can happen.  I'm considering holding on to this trade longer now but that may not be the proper strategy as well.  As usual, the game is never easy.  The major stock index daily candlestick charts look to have bullish set ups on them after todays price action.  The short term indicators also have room to run higher.  So there will be a lot to think about tonight.  I don't think that recent upside in gold the past 3 days is the start of anything substantial.  I could be wrong.  The short term technical indicators have turned up here as well.  The ABX October calls are still on my radar.  We'll see if the foreign markets can follow the Dow higher and then await the market reaction to the retail sales numbers. 

We limped around for much of the session as the Dow fell 2 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The internals are very weak.  That said, we are short term oversold and I do believe a decent bounce is coming tomorrow or Thursday.  I did get the SPY June calls this morning but my timing was not good.  I could have gotten a better price if I was quicker and ended up chasing it.  They are at break even now.  This is probably a trade that needs to be sold by the close on Thursday.  We'll see.  GE was up a few cents on what passes for average volume these days.  I still like the July calls here.  Gold was up a few bucks on the futures as the US dollar was slightly off.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  NEM got whacked on a deal to buy another miner by issuing more shares.  Perhaps the out performance there is coming to a halt.  I still am considering the ABX October calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The price action in the SPY calls today was interesting to say the least.  But at least there is plenty of liquidity there.  I am pretty sure that buying the calls here is the right trade.  Otherwise things will unravel and I don't see that happening tomorrow.  Maybe the retail sales report on Thursday can get things moving to the upside.  I think that will be the case if tomorrow is another day like today.  My execution on the entry today wasn't good.  I knew what I had to do and juggled around with the price too much.  The SPY is a fast trading vehicle.  I'm still fairly confident that this trade will work out.  Gold is still above $1150 and the volume has been light to start off the week.  I'm trying to remain patient there.  We'll watch the foreign markets overnight and take it from there.

To the downside to begin the week as the Dow fell 82 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  We closed near the lows for the session and that is bearish.  The summation index continues lower.  The short term technical indicators are oversold for the major stock indices.  That said, I do believe that on weakness tomorrow SPY June calls can be bought.  That will be my next trade.  Unless the market is about to completely unravel, we should see a bounce either tomorrow or on Wednesday.  GE was off a nickel and the volume was light again.  I'm still considering the July calls here.  Gold was up $5 on the futures as the US dollar fell by over a point.  Considering the drop in the dollar, it wasn't much of a gold rally.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains but volume did pick up a bit to the upside.  The gold shares are short term oversold here.  I am still leaning towards the ABX October calls if we get medium term oversold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  My work says that some upside is coming.  I don't know how long it will last but there should be something by Wednesday.  Weakness can be bought tomorrow.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow today and we haven't seen that lately.  I will be looking to get some SPY June calls in the early hours of trading.  Of course I could be wrong and if I am we'll see quite a decline due to the technical nature of what is unfolding.  But I do not think that will occur.  Gold needs to hold the $1150 level and for silver it's $15.50 or we're heading lower.  Perhaps if we get to these levels in the coming days, I'll try the ABX October calls.  Too soon to tell.  Hopefully my timing on the SPY trade tomorrow will be correct.  We'll see if the overseas markets follow the US lower overnight.

Reaction to todays employment report?  Not much.  The Dow fell 56 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  We were down, then up and spent most of the day in a sideways malaise.  That is where we are at.  Sideways forever or so it seems.  The summation index is still heading down.  The TRAN had a positive session and the small stocks along with the overall market were stronger than the Dow.  I'm leaning towards perhaps getting some SPY June calls at the beginning of next week.  GE was up a few cents and the volume was pretty light.  Getting short term oversold but not completely there yet.  Gold fell $7 on the futures as the US dollar was higher today.  Gold did come back a few bucks in the aftermarket.  The XAU fell 7/8 and GDX lost 1/4.  Volume was very light.  There is no compelling reason to own gold here.  $1150 is the next downside target and it will need to hold on there.  I'm still looking at the October ABX calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It is rare when we don't see some volatility one way or the other on the jobs report.  Perhaps the market has its mind on something else.  Employment expanded more than expected.  Maybe the recent rise in interest rates is putting a lid on the stock market.  That money has to go somewhere though.  Technically the major big cap indexes are short term oversold.  Whatever is going on underneath the surface will eventually come out.  There will be a lot to consider over the weekend.  The precious metals did come off of their lows but the lack of volume was glaring.  There is no interest here.  Sometimes the time to buy is when nobody else wants it.  The fundamentals for gold at this time are negative though.  But I do want to have some kind of bullish position before the seasonally strong August/September time period.  It may be too early.  Plenty to ponder over the next 2 days.  I really think that the market is setting up for some type of rally soon.  I could be wrong but if things pan out on Monday or Tuesday, I'm probably going to attempt the SPY June calls.  We'll see what the charts say over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

Lower today ahead of the jobs report as the Dow fell 170 points on still light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still heading lower.  The selling in the bond market seems to be carrying over to stocks.  I think tomorrows price action will go a long way as to where we are heading for the next few weeks.  Short term oversold on the major big cap indices.  GE was off 1/4 on average volume.  The Bollinger bands on the daily chart here are converging.  This suggests a big move is coming up.  In which direction is the question.  Gold fell today, about $10 on the futures.  The US dollar finished little changed but came off of its lows.  Commodities in general were weak today.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  Oversold and staying there for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Still over 2 weeks left in the June option cycle.  It looks like things are rolling over here for stocks.  If we get a strong employment report, stocks will probably head lower.  If that is the case a bounce trade in the SPY next week is possible.  Lower prices could give me a chance at getting the GE calls.  Gold closed below $1180 today and the next support comes in at $1150.  If that doesn't hold up things could really get ugly there.  I'm still looking at the October gold share calls though.  Timing is everything.  We'll watch overnight to see if the foreign markets follow the US lower.  Then all eyes will be on the market reaction to the jobs report. 

Once again the market is heading nowhere fast as the Dow gained 64 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The Dow finished well off of the highs for the session.  The summation index is still moving lower.  The TRAN had a strong session and that's a positive.  But I still don't have a good feel or signal on what to do here.  I'm leaning towards the SPY call side but the volume has been so light lately that I don't have a good idea.  I'll probably just remain on the sidelines.  GE gained 20 cents and the volume is still light.  It looks like maybe that GE will not get into what I consider the buy zone for the July calls.  I'll wait and see.  Gold was off almost $10 on the futures despite another drop in the US dollar.  The XAU shed 1 1/4, while GDX lost 1/3.  Volume remains lackluster.  I'm guessing that things will pick up here with the release of the jobs numbers.  Which way is the question.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Tomorrow should be another wishy-washy session ahead of Fridays release.  I'm most likely going to remain cautious.  Sometimes you have to be patient and wait for good set ups.  You do not want to get into a habit of guessing.  I would like to put on a trade but there isn't really anything that I'm clear on right now.  The precious metals are getting short term oversold but I'm going to wait.  Ditto for the gold shares.  I may change my mind tomorrow but for now indecision rules the day.  We'll watch what happens in the foreign markets overnight and take it from there.

Back and forth again today as the Dow fell 28 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive again.  So we continue to go nowhere as the market tries to resolve which way it wants to go.  This has been going on for weeks on end.  The only sustained trend is sideways.  There is a short term down trend line in effect for the big cap stock averages.  What happens there probably will tell the story.  Waiting on Fridays employment report.  GE was up a nickel and the volume was light.  Waiting for oversold here.  Gold was up $5 on the futures which wasn't that much considering the US dollar got clobbered.  The XAU rose 1 1/4, while GDX gained about 1/3.  Volume was average for lately.  Not sure what is happening here with respect to the US dollar.  However golds lack of better upside isn't bullish.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I suppose all we can do is wait while the market decides which way it wants to go.  The short term techncials are getting oversold here though for the major stock indices.  Perhaps the SPY June calls ahead of the employment report will be the proper play.  But the summation index is still moving lower.  I may just have to remain on the sidelines.  I've got a couple of days to decide.  The gold shares can wait for now in my opinion.  Short term oversold there as well.  However the medium term picture isn't as clear.  The trading is never easy.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and see what tomorrow brings.

The Dow gained 29 points to start the month of June.  The advance/declines were slightly positive and the volume was light.  We bounced around and gave up half of the days gains in the final hour.  The summation index is still heading lower but the TRAN had a good day.  It appears that the market is still trying to make up its mind.  GE was basically unchanged on average volume.  The July calls here are still on my radar.  Gold was off a buck on the futures which wasn't bad because the US dollar was higher once again today.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  Short term oversold for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I looked all weekend for something to trade but there aren't any clear signals at the moment.  The summation index is still pointing down and I'm going to follow that cue.  I'm still in a cautious mode for now.  If we head lower into the employment report, I may be tempted to try the June SPY calls on Thursday.  But things will have to line up for that trade.  I also still want to try the gold shares going out to October.  But patience is probably a good thing for that idea.  I also had an idea to trade AAL after reading an article in Barrons a week ago.  However I do not follow the airline stocks per se and this issue has already moved higher.  The June calls there were the proper choice.  We'll keep an eye on the overseas markets tonight and go from there.