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Wednesday, July 29, 2026

Volatility is now the name of the game as the Dow plunged 1153 points on pretty heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is starting to turn back down. The day started with a steady decline but turned around after the Fed announcement to move higher for the session. But the final hour found relentless selling as buyers disappeared. The Dow led the way down with the NASDAQ falling 1 3/4% and the S&P 500 off 1 1/2% by the close. The short term indicators for the S&P turned lower and they were already oversold. That is not a good sign. Perhaps the after the bell tech earnings can hold things together for the bulls. The daily chart for the S&P looks like it is breaking down though. Maybe tomorrows inflation data can provide a spark of hope for the bulls. But the charts say otherwise as it looks like this could be a repeat of the rollover that we saw in March. Stay tuned. Gold was up $11 on the futures but was higher during the session. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished mixed. The XAU dipped 2 1/2 and GDX lost 2/3. Volume was above average. The short term indicators on GDX are moving lower. I am going to try and wait for GDX to reach oversold on the daily chart before trying the calls there again. It might take a few days or more if we do see more selling going forward. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and closed above the 20 level. The short term indicators here have turned back up and some are almost overbought. With the VIX above 20, expect volatility to continue. What it means for the SPY trades is that we'll be looking for entry points to try the August puts. Rallies are to be treated as suspect. Trading durations should be shortened up. There will be opportunities so it will be the matter of whether you can take advantage of them or not. Markets remain at the mercy of the US/Iran conflict. Still plenty of time in the August option cycle. Europe was mixed and Asia higher with the exception of Japan overnight. We'll keep an eye on the evenings reports.

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