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Tuesday, July 21, 2026

Higher from the start today as the Dow gained 385 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index remains in a rising channel. The NASDAQ led the way up and that's a plus for the bulls. Waiting on earnings reports as there is not much economic data due out this week. Some of the short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back up but they never made it all the way down to oversold territory. Waiting on some kind of signal here as option premiums are high and there is plenty of time in the August option cycle. Gold rallied today as the futures were up $73. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. Normally higher rates along with a strong US dollar would be bearish for gold. Not sure what's going on here. The XAU climbed 15 3/4, while GDX added 3 1/2. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX are starting to move up from oversold territory. Will they finally make it higher this time around? Stay tuned. I still like the idea of the GDX calls going forward but will not chase this move as all the recent previous attempts to move up have failed. I will also try to not let the previous losing GDX call trade influence the next trade here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped and that fits with a rally in stocks. The short term indicators here are now heading south and it appears that the 20 level has kept things in check. The daily candlestick chart on the VIX looks like it wants to go lower which would bode well for stocks. However we do remain in headline risk mode as geo-political tensions have not gone away. Asia mixed and Europe higher overnight. We'll see what tomorrow has in store for us.

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